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(Independent)   In latest proof global warming continues to not happen, migratory birds stay in Siberia instead of travelling south for winter because it's warmer there   (independent.co.uk) divider line 37
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519 clicks; posted to Geek » on 28 Oct 2008 at 7:09 AM (5 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



37 Comments   (+0 »)
   

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2008-10-27 10:59:17 PM
Just getting in before the deluge of graphs.

photos-d.ak.facebook.com
 
2008-10-27 11:20:21 PM
It was, like, 65 mother-farking-degrees here today, and it should be snowing.

I rest my case. Oh wait, no I don't:

www.me.umn.edu

Yeah. So there.
 
2008-10-27 11:25:34 PM
cryinoutloud: It was, like, 65 mother-farking-degrees here today, and it should be snowing.


Yeah ... the past two summers combined, we've had about 1" total precipitation ... at 4500' in the Cascades. Something's not right.
 
2008-10-27 11:28:18 PM
i27.photobucket.com

"And I can see them birds from my house, you betcha."
 
2008-10-27 11:37:00 PM
Siberia is going to be one of the area to experience the biggest growth in average temperatures. This is not surprising. The Russians will actually be one of the biggest beneficiaries of global warming. What remains to be seen is how much this will effect weather here, since all cold air masses in the Northern Hemisphere originate in Siberia.
 
2008-10-27 11:45:31 PM
Joke's on those birds. Wait 'til the permafrost starts thawing and that frozen peat releases all that CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere.

*Chirp, Chirp, THUD*
 
2008-10-28 12:33:08 AM
In before the "climate models drastically overestimate water vapor feedback" WHARGRBLL[1].
 
2008-10-28 12:50:52 AM
They are just doing that for tax reasons.
 
2008-10-28 04:29:51 AM
The issue is not whether global warming is happening, but...
Rather is it caused or affected by man's actions?
I mean, citing this bird crap is like claiming rain is increasing
Because the world series game five delay is definitive proof.
Unless you have evidence that climate change is man-made,
Take your hippie arse back to your PeTA meeting.
Even if you have shiny graphs, understand that correlation ain't
The same as causation - not that you're going to get my point.
Only through careful scientific process and testing -
Denied frequently by scientists profiting from the scam -
Enjoying grants, getting fat from the efforts of Lord Gore -
Might these claims be either proven or denied.
Only can a fresh change against this foolish path be made,
Clearly, on an election day such as today.
Republicans and democrats may differ in opinions and ideas.
All things equal, science is the one thing that requires facts.
Climate change being caused by mankind's behavior?
You might want a big cup of proof before buying that line.
 
2008-10-28 07:48:19 AM
SJKebab: Just getting in before the deluge of graphs.

lol i love how entitled little shiatness has mmHG for units

/dork
//btu lolz
 
2008-10-28 07:56:06 AM
i love how people claim global warming is false because it is getting colder in some places.

When you melt ice into a drink, the ice gets a lot warmer and everything else gets a little colder, farking idiots.
 
2008-10-28 08:26:00 AM
so we're back to using "global warming"? I hate when I don't get the memo
 
2008-10-28 08:49:56 AM
Spanky_McFarksalot: so we're back to using "global warming"? I hate when I don't get the memo

Global warming and climate change describe two distinct but overlapping phenomena. As it's commonly used, global warming refers to the observed warming of a planet (increase of the global mean temp), climate change means altering the distribution, shape, intensity, and duration of climate norms insofar as they exist, and anthropogenic means due to human actions. Our emissions-driven alteration of the planetary energy balance is increasing the mean temperature of the planet which is changing the climate (dry areas are becoming more prone to drought, flood prone areas receiving more precipitation, colder areas becoming arable, etc.). Global warming can be non-anthropogenic (e.g. what will happen when the sun expands) and climate change can be non-anthropogenic but warming (e.g. Permian extinction), and non-warming but anthropogenic (e.g. nuclear winter). Anthropogenic global warming and anthropogenic climate change both describe what is occurring.

But then, I've told you this before.
 
2008-10-28 08:53:46 AM
And in latest news which will surprise submittard, Siberia continues to not cover the entire surface of the earth.

If, on the other hand, your interest is in "global warming", it may interest you to note that according to NOAA, the average surface temperature of the ENTIRE earth (not just the anomalously warm siberian part) has been trending cooler for this entire century:

brock.lenzus.com

But hey, why bother looking at the data itself, when we have an agenda to promote, right, Chicken Little?
 
2008-10-28 08:59:09 AM
Just because you repeat the same farking statistics and haul out the same old farking graphs doesn't make it any truer now than it did in the past.
Global warming caused by humans is a load of horse farking shiat. And only an idiot with a teenie tiny dick believes otherwise.

//and fark knows there's enough clowns on fark to prove that short dicks are in ample supply.
 
2008-10-28 09:05:18 AM
Brockway
this entire century:

All eight years of it?
 
2008-10-28 09:14:04 AM
The real reason the birds aren't migrating is they have realised that they are not getting any frequent flier points.
 
2008-10-28 09:23:37 AM
Jon Snow: But then, I've told you this before.

It's not me you need to tell.
 
2008-10-28 09:40:51 AM
The latest ever? Man, those are some hard-core type-A punctual geese right there. Last year they arrived on the 19th and it was the earliest ever. Also, how come they were expected on the 21st if they arrived on the 19th in 2007 and the 27th in 2006?
 
2008-10-28 09:47:43 AM
Xyphoid: i love how people claim global warming is false because it is getting colder in some places.

When you melt ice into a drink, the ice gets a lot warmer and everything else gets a little colder, farking idiots.


I spent a month with arctic climatologists and I'm really getting a kick out of these replies. Especially the "big drink" theory here.
 
2008-10-28 10:17:59 AM
Lots of stupid in this thread.


This why i have no faith in humanity - it takes a huge clusterfark for people to learn their lesson and people see no value in longterm solutions or strategies.

Our economic system is short sighted in nature (both in the preference of short term growth over long term growth and stability and not taking into account true costs of doing businesS)

our foreign policy is short sighted.

Our environmental policy is short sighted.

People just cant seem to think if it cant be done right now, then its not worth doing.
 
2008-10-28 10:39:33 AM
As I have previously stated: Without global warming we would all die a very cold death, as the earth does not create enough heat of its own to sustain us.
 
jvl
2008-10-28 10:39:48 AM
Ugh. Global warming has not YET had such an effect as to really screw things up. So as a birder, let me tell you that...

(a) In every cycle some birds don't migrate. It's just Darwin hedging his bets.

(b) Birds migrate "early" or "late" all the time. It means nothing more than the fact that there is a lot of variety in bird migration behavior. This year in California it was the Golden-crowned Sparrows which migrated late. Shrug.
 
2008-10-28 10:53:44 AM
jvl: (b) Birds migrate "early" or "late" all the time. It means nothing more than the fact that there is a lot of variety in bird migration behavior. This year in California it was the Golden-crowned Sparrows which migrated late. Shrug.

Is there an "expected" variation for different populations? For example those god-damned poop-making squawking worthless Canada Geese come down the Atlantic flyway pretty much whenever they feel like it, from September right through November. If departure location temperatures are an important element in when to migrate I'd expect an even larger variation in populations departing Siberia, which doesn't have a big-ol temperature-moderating ocean attached to it (assuming the Geese go to the interior, which I am). That's why the reported tight window seemed a surprise to me.

On the other hand, maybe their little bird radars can predict temperatures at the arrival location. Maybe the Geese are staying in Siberia on account of it being so fecking cold in the UK.

How about a five-sentence tutorial on migratory departures to try to save this abomination of a thread?
 
2008-10-28 11:06:14 AM
jvl

That sounds like OIL COMPANY TALK to me!
 
2008-10-28 11:09:25 AM
OldJames: As I have previously stated: Without global warming we would all die a very cold death, as the earth does not create enough heat of its own to sustain us.

I think you have your science mixed up. Without the greenhouse effect, the energy balance between the sun and Earth would put us at an average surface temperature of about 0 ºF. Also, the Earth itself (unlike Jupiter, for example) does not create significant heat at its core to increase the temperature from that. Then, when you add in the usual concentration of gases in the atmosphere, the extra energy we receive at the surface from the atmosphere's emission brings us up to an average of about 50 ºF. Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases from that point will increase the amount of energy incident on the surface even more, hence why we expect warming in this case.
 
2008-10-28 11:13:04 AM
Didn't alaska's ice shelf grow this year or something? Isn't it cold as hell in some places when it should be warm?
 
2008-10-28 11:22:16 AM
Brockway: And in latest news which will surprise submittard, Siberia continues to not cover the entire surface of the earth.

If, on the other hand, your interest is in "global warming", it may interest you to note that according to NOAA, the average surface temperature of the ENTIRE earth (not just the anomalously warm siberian part) has been trending cooler for this entire century:



But hey, why bother looking at the data itself, when we have an agenda to promote, right, Chicken Little?


Once again, here comes the retard with his cherrypicked sample, which conveniently cuts out the 60 years that leads up to this pleteau.

You're a blatant troll who is totally uninterested in fact, and completely in threadshiatting. You do realize your wording is completely ironic... nah hell, it's faster to just put you on the ignore list that having to listen to your verbal diarrhea.
 
2008-10-28 11:49:19 AM
ParadigmLeftShift 2008-10-28 11:22:16 AM :

You're a blatant troll who is totally uninterested in fact, and completely in threadshiatting.


I love it. I post the data directly from NOAA's website, and I am somehow therefore uninterested in fact.

I guess the only way to show you are interested in "fact" is to spread the sky is falling mantra, without any reference to the data. For it is the mantra that is the fact, and not the data.

/war is peace
 
2008-10-28 11:57:50 AM
Brockway, I have been wondering a few things some of which I've asked before but didn't receive an answer to. Why do you only choose the past 8 years? Why not use a longer time period? Why do you use a linear trend line, does it make sense from a statistics standpoint to do so? Would you provide the statistical significance of the trend line? What is the error value the data you've posted? My final question is, why do you feel the need to insult others, by calling them Chicken Little rather than let your arguments stand on their own merits?
 
2008-10-28 12:33:20 PM
jvl: "Ugh. Global warming has not YET had such an effect as to really screw things up. So as a birder, let me tell you that...

(a) In every cycle some birds don't migrate. It's just Darwin hedging his bets.

(b) Birds migrate "early" or "late" all the time. It means nothing more than the fact that there is a lot of variety in bird migration behavior. This year in California it was the Golden-crowned Sparrows which migrated late. Shrug."


This.

Using bird migration as an indicator of climate change is inexact, to say the least. Most birds are more adaptable than you think, and will irrupt depending on weather conditions. For example, about 12 years ago there was a very snowy winter in the Black Hills, and the Red Crossbills irrupted south and west looking for food. There were thousands of them all over Denver metro and the Front Range for a few months, and then they disappeared again. Red Crossbills are also a good example of an extremely adaptable bird as they can breed any time of year and move freely about their range depending on conditions.

Colorado is an interesting place to observe all this because over 400 species can be seen in the state, with about half of them only in breeding or migration. You can never predict when any given species will show up or leave, and some years you don't see certain birds at all, but they haven't died out, and the environmental conditions to which they react are so varied it's almost impossible to predict what combination of factors elicits certain behaviors or movements.

This article is hysterical sh*t, IMO. It's as if the writer expects nature to be static and invariable. Duuuurrrr.
 
2008-10-28 12:34:57 PM
Brockway: I love it. I post the data directly from NOAA's website, and I am somehow therefore uninterested in fact.

No, you posted a graph with no labels. Care to elaborate? And maybe link to an actual source this time?
 
2008-10-28 01:06:23 PM
I didn't post a link to a totally different article because I didn't bother to think of a better headline.

The article in question was "Arctic fall five degrees warmer than normal". (Celsius, I presume, because the other articles say 9 degrees and 5 degrees C equals 9 degrees Fahrenheit)

Here's yet another article based on the same report, the Arctic Report Card, just released:

Warmest Arctic Autumn on Record:
http://www.earthweek.com/2008/ew081024/ew081024i.html

And another:

Arctic keeps getting warmer
Sea levels to rise faster, scientists say
http://www.freep.com/article/20081017/NEWS07/810170408/1009/NEWS07

The ENTIRE Arctic is nine degrees warmer over the last two months ("Arctic Fall") than normal.
FTA (2nd link):
The Arctic Report Card's authors attributed the temperature spike to a combination of long-term global warming and short-term natural variations in ocean currents and winds above the Arctic Circle.

"Global warming by itself wouldn't cause this much sea ice loss," Overland said. Nor would changes in wind and ocean currents alone.

"Changes in the Arctic show a domino effect of both natural variation and the emerging global warming signal," he said. "Both are necessary to put us in this strange new world. Once we're in this place, it's very hard to go back."


Western Siberia has already shown a considerable warming trend, with permafrost melting on a grand scale and collapsing into temporary lakes full of ice melt water. The same has been happening in Western Canada, another hot spot. Only in Canada, the melt water lakes have also been reported to be vanishing--Canada has lost around 900 of these ponds, which are often round because they are formed when ice domes melt and collapse.

Crazy forests (where the trees tilt because the permafrost has thawed) and damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, etc., has been an ongoing story for several decades now.

The useful period for the ice roads in Northern Canada (they are literally made with ice rather than gravel and asphalt, which would be useless because it would heave and crack as it does further South, requiring replacement every year) has been on the decline.

This is one in a long series of articles reporting that migratory birds are not migrating like the used to and that their timing is changing--in fact the migratory birds in question have migratory routes that cover most of Asia, Europe, Africa, North America and the Caribbean-South America.

Timing matters because birds that arrive too early or too late may miss their seasonal food suppliess--insects that continue to hatch at the same time, or fruit which ripens before or after the birds have moved from the area in question.

This in turn impacts other creatures, including humans, because if the birds don't eat the insects this can result in immense crop and forest damage, disease outbreaks, etc. Also, birds carry a lot of seeds to new localities. If they aren't there at the right time, plants can fail to disperse and further disruptions to food supplies can occur.

Innummerable small and large temporal and physical barriers can prevent entire ecosystems from adapting to climate change, while creating entirely new and unfamiliar ecosystems which may not suit farmers, hunters, fishermen, tourists, etc.

Sample article: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7089/abs/nature04539.html
 
2008-10-28 01:07:52 PM
The birds must be Democrats.
 
jvl
2008-10-28 01:36:11 PM
Manfred J. Hattan: Is there an "expected" variation for different populations? For example those god-damned poop-making squawking worthless Canada Geese come down the Atlantic flyway pretty much whenever they feel like it, from September right through November. If departure location temperatures are an important element in when to migrate I'd expect an even larger variation in populations departing Siberia, which doesn't have a big-ol temperature-moderating ocean attached to it (assuming the Geese go to the interior, which I am). That's why the reported tight window seemed a surprise to me.

Yes, there is a different migration window for each species. Some fall migrations begin as early as August, others as late as January. Some appear en-masse within a week or two, others dribble in over months. But since there are so many damn species, you can expect an unexpected variation from several of them each year.

Since Darwin is sneaky, the migration date can be any factor of food availability, prevailing winds, quantity of light, length of day, or whatever. Since stuff as trivial as a warm spell or unseasonable winds can make a species early or late, there is no sense it attributing something like a single species event to GW.

If you want to attribute stuff to GW, you need some serious statistical models to determine expected variability and the measure current variability of all species to try to make a correlation.
 
2008-10-28 06:05:41 PM
leehouse: Why do you only choose the past 8 years?

Because using his same asinine criteria, starting at 2000 would give his linear regression a positive sign, thereby proving global warming has been happening for more than this entire century!!!!
 
2008-10-28 06:59:26 PM
<b>Jon Snow</b>

Just a note to say thanks. I've had you farkied at least since thread 3347479. I generally appreciate what you have to share and look forward to it.
 
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