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(Some Guy)   Obama's lead is now under three points. Seems like a funny thing might happen while he is measuring those drapes   (zogby.com) divider line 157
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3604 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Oct 2008 at 12:56 PM (6 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2008-10-19 10:05:29 AM  
Um, no it isn't.
 
2008-10-19 10:08:29 AM  
A 1.2 point shift in a poll that has a 3.9 margin of error.

That's insignificant.
 
2008-10-19 10:09:22 AM  
scottmshack: A 1.2 point shift in a poll that has a 3.9 margin of error.

That's insignificant.


Sorry - make that 2.9 margin of error. Point still stands, of course.
 
2008-10-19 10:13:08 AM  
Said it in the last redlit thread: Zogby. Zogby polls might as well be conducted by Magic 8-Ball.
 
2008-10-19 10:18:06 AM  
Yes, under 3 points in one poll that's rated 17th by 538.com in terms of pollster introduced error. Rasmussen, the 3rd highest rated pollster, has Obama gaining a point in their tracker (51 Obama-45 McCain) today. Also, I'm going to leave this here: electoral-vote.com.
 
2008-10-19 10:18:27 AM  
It's a national poll, makes no difference in reality. Electoral-Vote.com still has Obama in a near landslide EV wise.

He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia. The press knows this and when they report it, it could have a huge affect on down ticket races. Should be an interesting night.
 
2008-10-19 10:25:51 AM  
Mercutio879: It's a national poll, makes no difference in reality. Electoral-Vote.com still has Obama in a near landslide EV wise.

He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia. The press knows this and when they report it, it could have a huge affect on down ticket races. Should be an interesting night.


Wait...in the real VA, or just up here in commie-land?
 
2008-10-19 10:30:40 AM  
St_Francis_P: Wait...in the real VA, or just up here in commie-land?

The real virginia, Obama has a real chance of winning it. electoral-vote.com has pretty good writeup about it today.
 
2008-10-19 10:32:49 AM  
Mercutio879:
He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia.


You could say the same thing about Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and arguably Colorado.
 
2008-10-19 10:35:41 AM  
According to polls, we should be looking at Guiliani vs. Clinton right now. Also, we would've had Presidents Gore and Kerry. Let's say a poll has a margin of error of 3%. That's plus or minus 3, so it's really 6%. The last election had 120 million voters and this one is looking to blow that out of the water. If we only have 120 million this time, that means the poll could be off by over 7 million votes. That's a lot.
 
2008-10-19 10:36:48 AM  
Neeek: Mercutio879:
He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia.

You could say the same thing about Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and arguably Colorado.


plus MO and NC.
 
2008-10-19 10:39:14 AM  
Lord of Allusions: According to polls, we should be looking at Guiliani vs. Clinton right now.

That's why you shouldn't put much stock in national polls. The state ones are more accurate, plus if you start adding up multiple polls, you drastically reduce the margin of error.
 
2008-10-19 10:40:11 AM  
Lord of Allusions: According to polls, we should be looking at Guiliani vs. Clinton right now. Also, we would've had Presidents Gore and Kerry. Let's say a poll has a margin of error of 3%. That's plus or minus 3, so it's really 6%. The last election had 120 million voters and this one is looking to blow that out of the water. If we only have 120 million this time, that means the poll could be off by over 7 million votes. That's a lot.

That's why the electoral projections are what people should be looking at. That helps take the guesswork out of these national polls and helps identify the battleground states.
 
2008-10-19 10:42:51 AM  
isn't zogby the one that said mccain was winning just a week or so ago?
 
SVX
2008-10-19 10:55:15 AM  
The only poll that matters is the one November 4. And based on history, Obama better have at least a 6-7 point lead, or McCain will be the next President. It's been shown time and time again that people will tell a pollster that they can/will vote for the black candidate, but as soon as they get into that voting booth...they vote for the white guy. This race still has a very long way to go.
 
2008-10-19 10:58:12 AM  
SVX: The only poll that matters is the one November 4. And based on history, Obama better have at least a 6-7 point lead, or McCain will be the next President. It's been shown time and time again that people will tell a pollster that they can/will vote for the black candidate, but as soon as they get into that voting booth...they vote for the white guy. This race still has a very long way to go.

Um, actually no. The accuracy of the Bradley effect theory has come into dispute as to whether it ever existed and, if it did, whether it is still in effect (evidence points to there being no Bradely effect in recent elections.)
 
2008-10-19 11:00:10 AM  
Zogby is BS and is the poll the GOP seems to trot out to make themselves feel better. Like was said before, state polls are more reliable. I think, instead of looking at one poll and declaring "this is bad!....for Obama", you should look at the trends in multiple polls. If you look at the polling trends there is no other logical conclusion other than Obama is definetly in landslide territory. Suck it, GOP.
 
SVX
2008-10-19 11:50:09 AM  
Atillathepun: SVX: The only poll that matters is the one November 4. And based on history, Obama better have at least a 6-7 point lead, or McCain will be the next President. It's been shown time and time again that people will tell a pollster that they can/will vote for the black candidate, but as soon as they get into that voting booth...they vote for the white guy. This race still has a very long way to go.

Um, actually no. The accuracy of the Bradley effect theory has come into dispute as to whether it ever existed and, if it did, whether it is still in effect (evidence points to there being no Bradely effect in recent elections.)


We'll see on November 4. This is for the presidency of the United States. And anybody can dispute anything, but the dispute itself doesn't cover up the raw numbers. It wasn't just Bradley, either. Ask former Gov. Wilder if the Bradley effect doesn't come into play...
 
2008-10-19 11:57:45 AM  
SVX: The only poll that matters is the one November 4. And based on history, Obama better have at least a 6-7 point lead, or McCain will be the next President. It's been shown time and time again that people will tell a pollster that they can/will vote for the black candidate, but as soon as they get into that voting booth...they vote for the white guy. This race still has a very long way to go.

History Lesson:

The Bradley Effect gets its name from the 1982 California Gubernatorial Election - Tom Bradley vs George Deukmejian. According to exit polling, Tom Bradley should have won. Indeed, Bradley would have won, had only votes cast that day at the polls been counted.

Bradley lost because the GOP sent an absentee ballot application to every registered Republican in the state (this was before it became automatic to send an absentee ballot app to all registered voters). GOP voters dutifully filled out their apps and voted absentee. That made all the difference in the world, because Deukmejian won by barely 100,000 votes.

The Bradley Effect, if it indeed exists, is misnamed. The CA GOP was just better at getting every last possible vote during that election cycle.
 
SVX
2008-10-19 12:23:35 PM  
Shrew2u: SVX: The only poll that matters is the one November 4. And based on history, Obama better have at least a 6-7 point lead, or McCain will be the next President. It's been shown time and time again that people will tell a pollster that they can/will vote for the black candidate, but as soon as they get into that voting booth...they vote for the white guy. This race still has a very long way to go.

History Lesson:

The Bradley Effect gets its name from the 1982 California Gubernatorial Election - Tom Bradley vs George Deukmejian. According to exit polling, Tom Bradley should have won. Indeed, Bradley would have won, had only votes cast that day at the polls been counted.

Bradley lost because the GOP sent an absentee ballot application to every registered Republican in the state (this was before it became automatic to send an absentee ballot app to all registered voters). GOP voters dutifully filled out their apps and voted absentee. That made all the difference in the world, because Deukmejian won by barely 100,000 votes.

The Bradley Effect, if it indeed exists, is misnamed. The CA GOP was just better at getting every last possible vote during that election cycle.


Again....we'll see on 11/4, as that is the only poll that counts. And if we're casting dispersions on things...why don't we cast dispersions on the exit polling itself. If exit polling were accurate, John Kerry would be president of the United States right now. We can twist "facts" to suit our purposes ad nauseum.

But here is one fact that is without dispute. Race is a very big deal in this country. A black man who tends to the liberal side of the spectrum is one of the major candidates. If you, or anybody else, doesn't think that race will come into play on voting day....then I don't know what to tell you. How much it comes into play, we'll soon find out. I know that if I were in Obama's shoes, I'd want a big lead on 11/3. That might keep some people who will vote strictly race away from the polls. If it's close, you watch, every card carrying KKK member and their toadies will show up to cast their votes. However you want to spin the "Bradley effect", it's still has to be played out. And it will be, one way or another, on 11/4.
 
2008-10-19 12:29:58 PM  
SVX: Again....we'll see on 11/4, as that is the only poll that counts. And if we're casting dispersions on things...why don't we cast dispersions on the exit polling itself. If exit polling were accurate, John Kerry would be president of the United States right now. We can twist "facts" to suit our purposes ad nauseum.

ROFL
 
SVX
2008-10-19 12:35:50 PM  
Atillathepun: SVX: Again....we'll see on 11/4, as that is the only poll that counts. And if we're casting dispersions on things...why don't we cast dispersions on the exit polling itself. If exit polling were accurate, John Kerry would be president of the United States right now. We can twist "facts" to suit our purposes ad nauseum.

ROFL


Is that all you got? Oy. I love Fark basement losers. Let me guess, you're one of those lefty types who "feel" that things should be a certain way, so that's the way they must be. And no, I'm not a righty, I'm hoping for split government - as long as the Repubs hold 41 seats in the Senate, I don't really care if Obama wins or loses.
 
2008-10-19 12:36:11 PM  
Mercutio879: It's a national poll, makes no difference in reality. Electoral-Vote.com still has Obama in a near landslide EV wise.

I need to disagree with you here. The national polls aren't useless - they are actually extremeley useful. The thing is there is always a lag between national and state polls. So if the polls tomorrow drop to a tie in the national trackers, we need to wait a few days, maybe a week, for that movement to show up in the states - this is simply because the states are polled less often.
 
2008-10-19 12:42:20 PM  
SVX: Atillathepun: SVX: Again....we'll see on 11/4, as that is the only poll that counts. And if we're casting dispersions on things...why don't we cast dispersions on the exit polling itself. If exit polling were accurate, John Kerry would be president of the United States right now. We can twist "facts" to suit our purposes ad nauseum.

ROFL

Is that all you got? Oy. I love Fark basement losers. Let me guess, you're one of those lefty types who "feel" that things should be a certain way, so that's the way they must be. And no, I'm not a righty, I'm hoping for split government - as long as the Repubs hold 41 seats in the Senate, I don't really care if Obama wins or loses.


Using the correct word is lefty now?
 
2008-10-19 12:44:40 PM  
Man. McCain's poll numbers have by skyrocketing for so many months he must be at 340% by now.
 
2008-10-19 12:46:30 PM  
flavor of the month: Man. McCain's poll numbers have by skyrocketing for so many months he must be at 340% by now.

Now, THAT is comedy gold!
 
2008-10-19 12:46:43 PM  
First of all, percentages of the popular vote are irrelevant. We elect presidents by the electoral college vote, not popular vote. Ever taken a civic class, subby?

Obama is winning by a blow-out in terms of the polls when placed on the map according to the electoral college votes of each state. McCain would have to basically win all six of the states that are barely Obama's. 6 of 6, not 5 of 6. The chances of that happening, according to most studies, is something like 1/1000.

Obama is going to win.
 
2008-10-19 12:48:24 PM  
SVX: Let me guess, you're one of those lefty types who "feel" that things should be a certain way, so that's the way they must be.

www.hollywoodcollectibles.com
 
SVX
2008-10-19 12:49:36 PM  
Atillathepun: SVX: Atillathepun: SVX: Again....we'll see on 11/4, as that is the only poll that counts. And if we're casting dispersions on things...why don't we cast dispersions on the exit polling itself. If exit polling were accurate, John Kerry would be president of the United States right now. We can twist "facts" to suit our purposes ad nauseum.

ROFL

Is that all you got? Oy. I love Fark basement losers. Let me guess, you're one of those lefty types who "feel" that things should be a certain way, so that's the way they must be. And no, I'm not a righty, I'm hoping for split government - as long as the Repubs hold 41 seats in the Senate, I don't really care if Obama wins or loses.

Using the correct word is lefty now?


San Jose, CA is a pretty good indicator of lefty thought. Just as Provo, UT is a fairly strong indicator of righty thought. If you're not a lefty, just come out and say it. I'll bet you are though...
 
SVX
2008-10-19 12:52:22 PM  
downstairs: SVX: Let me guess, you're one of those lefty types who "feel" that things should be a certain way, so that's the way they must be.

I'd vote for Lefty Gomez before I'd vote for either one of these jokers who are running. Hell, Mickey Mouse might get my vote. Giant Douche and Turd Sandwich are also under consideration.
 
2008-10-19 12:59:33 PM  
Has anyone asked President Kerry what his reaction is to the Zogby poll?
 
2008-10-19 01:00:56 PM  
dumbass dems do nothing but biatch about the electoral college system until it benefits them.

THATS CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!!!!
 
2008-10-19 01:02:21 PM  
SVX: I'd vote for Lefty Gomez before I'd vote for either one of these jokers who are running. Hell, Mickey Mouse might get my vote. Giant Douche and Turd Sandwich are also under consideration.

Voldemort/Badanov
 
2008-10-19 01:02:46 PM  
explosivebarrel: dumbass dems do nothing but biatch about the electoral college system until it benefits them.

THATS CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!!!!


meh, its both parties.

I wanted an opposite of 2000 this year, i wanted to see what both parties would say if the roles were switched.
so much for that
 
2008-10-19 01:03:25 PM  
Zogby is crap.
 
2008-10-19 01:03:45 PM  
Have you wondered why national polls are tighhtening, but the EC has not been?

It is because McCain's "OMG TEH TERRIST!!" strategy has scared the republicans who were writing McCain off as a loser to support him, while Independents continue to support Obama like crazy.

All these polls show us is that McCain will win Texas and Mississippi by a larger margin, and get murdered in the midwest, Virginia, and Colorado.
 
2008-10-19 01:04:32 PM  
My prediction is that Obama will win by about 3% more than the polls indicate on Nov 4th.
 
2008-10-19 01:05:33 PM  
Atillathepun: SVX: Atillathepun: SVX: Again....we'll see on 11/4, as that is the only poll that counts. And if we're casting dispersions on things...why don't we cast dispersions on the exit polling itself. If exit polling were accurate, John Kerry would be president of the United States right now. We can twist "facts" to suit our purposes ad nauseum.

ROFL

Is that all you got? Oy. I love Fark basement losers. Let me guess, you're one of those lefty types who "feel" that things should be a certain way, so that's the way they must be. And no, I'm not a righty, I'm hoping for split government - as long as the Repubs hold 41 seats in the Senate, I don't really care if Obama wins or loses.

Using the correct word is lefty now?


Come on, don't you know it's elitist to use good grammar and spelling or to make sound logical conclusions? What's wrong with you?
 
2008-10-19 01:05:49 PM  
Um, not to point out the obvious, but subby's headline makes out like Obama is walking around claiming he's already won the election, which he isn't. He's one of the loudest voices saying that there are 2+ more weeks left, and not to assume that he's won based on polls.

/Just sayin', is all.
 
2008-10-19 01:06:11 PM  
Zogby's website looks like a Geocities page.
 
2008-10-19 01:07:04 PM  
explosivebarrel: dumbass dems do nothing but biatch about the electoral college system until it benefits them.

THATS CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!!!!


Well, they're gonna win the popular vote as well. Stings just a little huh?
 
2008-10-19 01:07:19 PM  
guilt by association: Zogby's website looks like a Geocities page.

Circa 1996?

when was geocities started?
 
2008-10-19 01:07:39 PM  
Mercutio879: He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia.

Isn't that why he took on Palin?

Oh wait I thought it said Vagina. Never mind.
 
2008-10-19 01:08:13 PM  
AmazingRuss: Mercutio879: He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia.

Isn't that why he took on Palin?

Oh wait I thought it said Vagina. Never mind.


hey said Virgina, not clown car
 
2008-10-19 01:08:50 PM  
AmazingRuss: Mercutio879: He does bring up a good point today, though, if Obama wins Virginia, it's over for McCain, it would be unfeasible for McCain to win without Virginia.

Isn't that why he took on Palin?

Oh wait I thought it said Vagina. Never mind.


AHAHAHA! +1
 
2008-10-19 01:08:52 PM  
www.fivethirtyeight.com

www.realclearpolitics.com

www.pollster.com

/pick one, any one
 
2008-10-19 01:10:11 PM  
My great great great great great grandpa owned slaves in the real Virginia 250 years ago so I am getting a kick out of these comments.
 
2008-10-19 01:10:35 PM  
SVX:

But here is one fact that is without dispute. Race is a very big deal in this country. A black man who tends to the liberal side of the spectrum is one of the major candidates. If you, or anybody else, doesn't think that race will come into play on voting day....then I don't know what to tell you. How much it comes into play, we'll soon find out. I know that if I were in Obama's shoes, I'd want a big lead on 11/3. That might keep some people who will vote strictly race away from the polls. If it's close, you watch, every card carrying KKK member and their toadies will show up to cast their votes. However you want to spin the "Bradley effect", it's still has to be played out. And it will be, one way or another, on 11/4.


i was watching a round table this morning, and an interest point came up on this. the polls could actually skew somewhat AWAY from obama compared to reality. the reason:

country club member white guy tells a his buddies (and the pollsters) that he's voting mccain, because he doesn't want to admit to anyone he is voting for a darkie.

once he's in the booth, it's his own little secret...

not sure how likely it is, but it's an interesting suggestion
 
2008-10-19 01:10:39 PM  
Aaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnddddddddddd the cherry picking continues...
 
2008-10-19 01:10:40 PM  
Podna: guilt by association: Zogby's website looks like a Geocities page.

Circa 1996?

when was geocities started?



I dunno, Zogby's page just looks like a trip eight years back in time.
 
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