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(Bloomberg)   Hedge fund founder predicts $80 a barrel oil next year due to increasing alternative fuels. Just so you don't have to ask, the sky in his world is a bright shade of pink   (bloomberg.com) divider line 13
    More: Unlikely  
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272 clicks; posted to Business » on 22 Aug 2008 at 10:05 PM (5 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



13 Comments   (+0 »)
   

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2008-08-22 09:45:56 PM
I would like to have some of what he is high/stoned/drunk/tripping on.
 
2008-08-22 10:07:47 PM
AntiNorm: I would like to have some of what he is high/stoned/drunk/tripping on.

Life?
 
2008-08-22 10:10:49 PM
It's not pink, it's light red.
 
2008-08-22 10:13:21 PM
In other words, This hedge fund manager has his orders to stop selling the shorts when it gets to $80.

/Shoot the mother farkers who thought of trading oil futures in the first place.
 
2008-08-22 10:36:59 PM
So which crystal ball prediction seemed more likely 3-4 months ago... $80 or $200? Now that oil is the same rough price and trending the other way, which one? It's all a big scam driven by everything and anything but the actual value of oil.

Hydrogen. Been saying it for years. Electric cars are doomed. Batteries are heavy and when they run dry, you can exactly fill them up in 3 minutes. Hybrids still keep the reliance on oil, which will continue to be used in commercial/industry, but will fall out of favor at the consumer level.

Hydrogen will need a distribution infrastructure, which is largely already in place, at least to the extent that it can be modified. And the ability to produce hydrogen in large quantities efficiently and cost effectively is moving along very quickly... the real joke? Anyone can do it, but scads of morons will light their feet on fire, prompting lawmakers to invoke regulations against producing hydrogen without a license/permit, thereby keeping the cartel system rolling strong. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see laws and regulations already in the works to prevent the Jr. High science class experiments that produce the gas. Future headline: "Son of U.S. Senator sentenced to 15 years in Federal prison following conviction in underground Hydrogen ring."

Welcome to the never-ending cycle. I wonder how long until Al Gore figures out that burning hydrogen produces too much H2O to maintain a stable planetary environment.

/cynical
//drives the 2 blocks for a 6-pack of Mt. Dew
///back to NFL game
 
2008-08-22 10:49:18 PM
SportingWood: So which crystal ball prediction seemed more likely 3-4 months ago... $80 or $200? Now that oil is the same rough price and trending the other way, which one? It's all a big scam driven by everything and anything but the actual value of oil.

Hydrogen. Been saying it for years. Electric cars are doomed. Batteries are heavy and when they run dry, you can exactly fill them up in 3 minutes. Hybrids still keep the reliance on oil, which will continue to be used in commercial/industry, but will fall out of favor at the consumer level.

Hydrogen will need a distribution infrastructure, which is largely already in place, at least to the extent that it can be modified. And the ability to produce hydrogen in large quantities efficiently and cost effectively is moving along very quickly... the real joke? Anyone can do it, but scads of morons will light their feet on fire, prompting lawmakers to invoke regulations against producing hydrogen without a license/permit, thereby keeping the cartel system rolling strong. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see laws and regulations already in the works to prevent the Jr. High science class experiments that produce the gas. Future headline: "Son of U.S. Senator sentenced to 15 years in Federal prison following conviction in underground Hydrogen ring."

Welcome to the never-ending cycle. I wonder how long until Al Gore figures out that burning hydrogen produces too much H2O to maintain a stable planetary environment.

/cynical
//drives the 2 blocks for a 6-pack of Mt. Dew
///back to NFL game


Electric cars aren't really doomed so much as current battery technology. Electric motors are probably the best means of vehicle motivation, and if fuel cells ever develop into a viable mass-market technology we'll see a lot more of that. But I'm probably just being a nit-picking douche, so you were probably getting at that with the comment about hydrogen.

The problem with hydrogen isn't making it, it's compressing it into a useful container. At atmospheric pressure, it really doesn't pack much of a punch and it takes a lot of space to store it. Compressing it ups the danger factor and requires a lot more energy input.
 
2008-08-22 10:55:58 PM
Nothing will do more to reduce the price of gas than the influx of new means of transporting energy. It's simple competition. Also, at some point the camel jockeys will realize that the high prices are pushing us to new technologies, and they will drop the price like a rock to stifle new developments.

Hopefully we will get the best of both worlds over the next decade, new development and a futile attempt by the camel jockeys to keep us on the oil spigot.
 
2008-08-23 01:24:04 AM
SportingWood: $80 or $200?

Honestly for a year from now? $80.
 
2008-08-23 01:31:46 AM
Also it's funny someone who is among the people responsible for the run up in oil prices says they'll tumble down, and people are thinking he's high.
 
2008-08-23 01:53:08 AM
monster87: Nothing will do more to reduce the price of gas than the influx of new means of transporting energy.

Because technology can magically create energy out of thin air! If we throw enough money scientists at the problem, anything is possible!

There is no energy/storage/cost equivalent to crude oil. Period.

/Just took a trip down in LA today
//The concrete jungle is farked
 
2008-08-23 08:33:46 AM
There is a historical price ratio between oil and gold of 15:1. So either gold is going to $1,800.00 an ounce or oil is going to continue to fall. $80.00 oil would put gold at $1,200.00, still too high especially considering the dollars strong recent gains.
 
2008-08-23 10:13:14 AM
Lemon-Lime Malthus: monster87: Nothing will do more to reduce the price of gas than the influx of new means of transporting energy.

Because technology can magically create energy out of thin air!


That is one possibility, yes.

Not next year though.
 
2008-08-23 10:23:31 PM
Loneliness, that's the bottom line. I was never happy as a child... Christmas, Ted, what does that mean to you? It was living hell. Do you know what it's like falling in the mud and getting kicked, in the head? With an iron boot? Of course you don't, no one does, that never happens. Sorry, Ted, it's a dumb question, skip that.
 
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