neat

I smell a "Lucky Numbers" sequel... *shudder*

*yawn*

Big deal. The odds are just 1 in 10,000.

The Lottery - playing on the the elderly and delusional since 19--

The odds of this happening are 1 in um....

ah, who cares?

Lottery: Ya gotta play to lose.

and I care why?

and I care why?

I bet it's the fault of them wiccans. I hate wiccans.

Wow.

On a related note, PA lottery on Saturday night (I think) was 7-7-8. I guarantee there were alot of pissed off old people. For those unaware, 777 is a very popular number to play. So popular, that the lottery has to limit sales of tickets for it so that the lottery doesn't go bankrupt when it does hit. Generally 777 is sold out a week or two in advance. Doesn't hit often, but that doesnt stop people from buying.

"Lucky Numbers" rofl. Also PA based (and filmed in the HBG area -- Southcentral PA REPRESENT!) Ok that was dumb.

yeah, not much to say about this one.

but here we all are.

Two nights, wrong numbers each time.

bored with this thread? go back to the celebrity book idea thread. I've posted some funny ones...oh yeah and vote for me!

It's about as probable as the New York Lottery drawing 9-1-1 on September 11. Wait a minute...

aren't the odds of this more like 1 in billion since they're 1 in 10k the first day and 1 in 10k the second day?

i'm no statistician

Probability flame war in 4...3...2...

Big effing' deal. Not only are the odds one in 10,000, If each state has a 4 digit lotto drawn once a week, it'll happen somewhere in the U.S. about once every four years.

10,000 (combinations) / 50 (states) / 52 (weeks) = 3.846

o

Somebody thought this was newsworthy? Damn, I used to feel dumb because I got a D in vector calculus.. I suppose now we know what happens to people who fail high school statistics..
"Dear God! Communications!?"
"I know! I know! is phony major! Luchenko learn nothing.. nothing!"

aren't the odds of this more like 1 in billion since they're 1 in 10k the first day and 1 in 10k the second day?

Well, the first day, the odds are 1 in 1 that any number is going to come up. You only have to match on the *second* day.

_

The odds of 2 pick-3 lottery numbers coming up the same number on consecutive nights before the drawings is 1 in 100,000,000 (1 in 10,000 * 1 in 10,000).

But, the odds of it happening after the first drawing is 1 in 10,000. There is the same statistical chance of today's winning number being the same as yesterday's.

Sorry, I meant pick-4.

I bet those Breeder's Cup fraternity guys had somethin' to do with it!

WickedWanda:

No. No, it's not. You probably just should have gone without...

Let a Math Major clear this up. It really isn't that big of a deal. You would have to have about 7,000 consecutive drawings for there to be a 50/50 chance that the same number would show up on consecutive drawings:
The Math >>> (9999 / 10000)^ 7000 = approx. 0.5

I don't know if Mass. has had 7,000 drawings since instituting the lottery, but with all of the different lotteries around the nation, I would be surprised if this DIDN'T happen somewhere.

Whoa! Deja-Vu.

I wonder what John Edward would have to say about this.

"But it really did happen"



PTA-M

Pick 1 odds: (1 / 10) = 10%
Pick 2 odds: (1 / 10)*(1 / 10) = 1%
Pick 3 odds: (1 / 10)*(1 / 10)*(1 / 10) = 0.1%
Pick 4 odds: (1 / 10)*(1 / 10)*(1 / 10) = 0.01%
2 consecutive pick 4's: 0.01% * 0.01% = 0.0001% (or 1 in 100 million)

Lottery = a tax on people who are bad at math

Yeah, nice and random

Skinink

And they don't buy 1 ticket, they have to buy 20, all different combinations. "4, 5, 8, 2, Exact 4, 3, 5, 6, 9, Any, etc". Then they have to buy their scratch tickets because they can't wait until the next day to find out they lost on the daily numbers, "Give me 10 of the ones, 15 of the fives".

And all I want to do is buy my coke, a pack of smokes and get out of there.

I picked my nose two days in a row and got the exact same boogie. Put it back again. Will check again tomorrow.

Oops, another glitch in the Matrix...

This reminds me of that story where on September 11th there was a lottery and the numbers were 911. Fortunately people are more reasonable today but back then there were all kinds of stupid people coming out of the woodworks.

ME_GRIMLOCK
Pick 1 odds: (1 / 10) = 10%
Pick 2 odds: (1 / 10)*(1 / 10) = 1%
Pick 3 odds: (1 / 10)*(1 / 10)*(1 / 10) = 0.1%
Pick 4 odds: (1 / 10)*(1 / 10)*(1 / 10) = 0.01%
2 consecutive pick 4's: 0.01% * 0.01% = 0.0001% (or 1 in 100 million)

The odds of successfully winning two pick-fours in a row are 1 in 100,000,000, as you state above. The odds of the lottery corporation drawing the same four numbers in a row is actually 1 in 10,000. The argument is as follows:

1) Lottery corp draws random 4 numbers on day 1. Doesn't matter what they are -- they're not buying a ticket.
2) On day 2, they draw four random numbers. The odds that each number matches the previously drawn number from day 1 is 1/10. There are four numbers.
3) (1/10)^4 = (1/10,000). Thus, there's a 1 in 10,000 chance of drawing.

The players have more against them, since their outcome needs to take into consideration picking 8 numbers -- 4 the first day, 4 the next.

Just noticed that Jeffmw said something similar. Oh well.

Er, better clear up my line above. Should read:

The odds of the lottery corporation drawing the same four numbers twice in a row...

Grimlock: Those are the odds of a particular four-number combination coming up twice in a row, not the odds of any four-number combination coming up twice. That prob. is 1/10^4.

So, going to pay your taxes, or what? ;^)

I think that logic is slightly flawed. I was only a math minor, so bear with me.

Drawing the same 4 digit number 2 days in a row is the same as drawing an 8 digit number once (the pot is split up differently, but essentially I think you have to base the odds on "the odds of them drawing 7-4-5-3-7-4-5-3", in which case its 1 in 10^8).

as previously noted above about the sept 11th drawing..
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_668991.html

but did you know this....
http://www.columbian.com/news/lottery.html

I remembered it because I was working at a news station at the time...(and Sept 11th, 2001)

Wow. I shoulda taken Nick Perry's tip and played it.

I love the "YOU AER STUPID!!!1!1! THIS IS HOW IT IS!!11!112+" posts about the supposed (1/10,000)² odds.

I love when idiots yell about how idiotic they are. Makes my job easier.

To explain it to the asshats:

I flip a coin. You flip a coin. (think of these as 'day 1' and 'day 2'). The odds you match me? 1 in 2.
H / H - yay!
H / T - boo.
T / H - boo.
T / T - yay!

My flip is irrelevant. You merely need to match me. Translation: "matching the previous pick-4 is a 1 in 10,000 chance."

If you asked "what are the chances they will both be heads" (think of this as saying "what are the chances that both numbers match the number I pick"), it is 1 in 4, since the first one matters. Think of this as 1/ (10,000*10,000).

Or don't. You probably don't get it anyway. Have fun with the lottery (which, by the way, makes more money than casinos - the state lottery is usually a .5:1 payout, whereas casions are in the high-.9:1 area.)

For matching the pick-3: $500.
Cost of a ticket: $1.
odds of winning: 1/1000.
amount needed to be won that makes it a fair game: $1000.
Player: asshat.

-_-

All righty,

I was also only a math minor, but since the vote so far is frighteningly close between 1/10000 and 1/10^8, I'll have to throw my vote in with the 1/10000 crowd. If you play the same single number each day, then there is only a 1/10^8 chance of *that* number coming up twice, but it doesn't have to be any particular number that comes up twice to get in the "news", so expect to see one of these stories roughly once per 10k drawings, which as someone pointed out, is pretty often considering how many drawings there are across the US. Actually, since journalists' standards are pretty low for these "miracle" stories, you can expect to see this in the paper all the time for pick-3 games (must happen many times a year.)

Whenever I see these threads I weep for the future of humanity. It is frightening how many people there are who can't handle something as fundamental as basic probability.

The first event is the event which we are trying to match. Absolutely any series of four numbers will do, and, hence, there is a probaility of 1 that a suitable set of numbers will occur. The only event which requires a probability assessment is the second event, which has a 1 in 10,000 chance of matching the first event. Suggesting that the correct answer is 1 in 100,000,000 is about as bright as suggesting that 2+2=22.

Donkster: Your logic is flawed. The number you are trying to match is a-b-c-d-a-b-c-d. There are 10^8 possible 8-digit numbers of the form a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h, but there are only 10^4 possibilities for a-b-c-d-a-b-c-d, any one of which is acceptable. The odds can be determined by dividing the former by the latter, or 10^8/10^4, which gives 10^4, as previously noted.

Donk: Your logic's more than slightly flawed. ;^) In an 8-digit number situation, there are no constraints on the last 4 digits (and thus, the odds are 1 in 10^8). In a two 4-digit scenario, the last four digits are constrained - to be the same as the first four. Only those first four are free to change; the second four are strictly determined. Thus, 10^4.

My favorite online casino ads are the ones boasting of a "98% payout" .. so they're basically telling you that, on average, if you give them a hundred bucks they'll give you 98 back. And people do it.

I was on a casino slots floor once, and realized how bloody stupid I've been to actually start a business and develop a product for people to buy. You don't need to give people something for their money. All you have to do is fill a room with machines that have holes in them, and people will flock in and put their money down the holes without getting anything. Brilliant, really.