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(MSNBC)   Chances of a recession have gone from 1 in 3 to 50-50   (msnbc.msn.com) divider line 49
    More: PSA  
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977 clicks; posted to Business » on 14 Jan 2008 at 1:26 PM (7 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



49 Comments   (+0 »)
   

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2008-01-14 10:23:17 AM  
I likes them odds!!
 
2008-01-14 10:31:16 AM  
Chances of a recession are 100%. There will always be recessions. They are inevitable.
 
2008-01-14 10:32:42 AM  
But enough about my hairline, how's the economy doing?


NYUK NYUK NYUK NYUK.
 
2008-01-14 10:49:26 AM  
mmm... pancake: Chances of a recession are 100%. There will always be recessions. They are inevitable.

damn, beat me to it.
 
2008-01-14 11:09:41 AM  
All that Keynes is coming home to roost now, huh.

If Congress hadn't let Bush spend like a teenager with a credit card and if the Fed (a self-interested consortium of private bankers) hadn't sold our country out to China we wouldn't be in this mess. Those economists should be hanged as traitors for coming up with sleight-of-hand ways for corrupt politicians to turn our currency into funny money.

We need the gold standard. We need Ron Paul.
 
2008-01-14 11:14:23 AM  
Glad to see the politicians out there that will fix it with tax increases and government "stimulus" packages.

That'll fix things right up.
 
2008-01-14 11:19:49 AM  
soze: All that Keynes is coming home to roost now, huh.

If Congress hadn't let Bush spend like a teenager with a credit card and if the Fed (a self-interested consortium of private bankers) hadn't sold our country out to China we wouldn't be in this mess. Those economists should be hanged as traitors for coming up with sleight-of-hand ways for corrupt politicians to turn our currency into funny money.

We need the gold standard. We need Ron Paul.


Damn it soze, I just got done praising you in the other thread and I come over here to this?!? You do know it was Nixon that took us off the gold standard, right? He was also the one that opened up China for us. So leave little bush out of this and start riping Nixon a new hole. Which would be tough to do, there is not much left of him by now. (trying not to make Futurama joke). And what makes you think that Ron Paul could do anything about it? You do realize that we sold all that gold? There is no way that we could buy enough gold to back our own currency that we have out right now. And if we tried to do it over time the price of gold would reach a price that no one could afford. Can happen ain't going to happen. It's your standard Ron Paul plan, sounds wonderful as long as you have no clue about the real world
 
2008-01-14 11:25:43 AM  
The Stealth Hippopotamus:

It's your standard Ron Paul plan, sounds wonderful as long as you have no clue about the real world

You're being glib. You don't know the history of economics, I do.

Have you seen the markets recently? Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate. No one's making any more of it, and it's a recognizable, tangible asset. Even women can smell fake gold from the real thing a mile away.
 
2008-01-14 11:43:27 AM  
soze: You're being glib. You don't know the history of economics, I do.

Have you seen the markets recently? Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate. No one's making any more of it, and it's a recognizable, tangible asset. Even women can smell fake gold from the real thing a mile away.


Real estate? When was the last time you saw anyone mention real estate in a sentence without the word "bubble" in it? With all the sub prime mess that is going to be created by Washington trying to help people that made bad discussions real estate could be in major trouble. And you do know that gold is currently very high already? What do you think would happen to the price if the only superpower in the world decided to start buying it up? And true currently no one is "making" gold, not yet. But they are digging for it all the time, we are one major find away from a major decrease in the price. Luckily for us (both humanity and U.S.) odds are anyone with the size of operation to find that much gold would understand if they relished all at once the price would plummet and the gold would be worth much less. Now if we were gold based and someone would want to hurt us all they would have to do is have a "fire" sale on their stockpile.
 
2008-01-14 11:54:32 AM  
soze: Have you seen the markets recently? Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate. No one's making any more of it, and it's a recognizable, tangible asset. Even women can smell fake gold from the real thing a mile away.

I think we should go to a land value standard. Not only is the supply fixed, it's harder to hoard or corner the market on.
 
2008-01-14 12:14:10 PM  
Ooh! Big money! Big money! No Whammies!
 
2008-01-14 12:16:13 PM  
soze: Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate.

Technically, the world economy is currently run on the oil standard. Gold is not going to be able to replace oil as a true measure of wealth unless we can start using it to drive our cars.
 
2008-01-14 01:28:59 PM  
I had the US Economy in my 2008 death pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies...
 
2008-01-14 01:31:06 PM  
This Is Bold Text: But enough about my hairline, how's the economy doing?


NYUK NYUK NYUK NYUK.


Haha, well played.
 
2008-01-14 01:35:40 PM  
soze: Have you seen the markets recently? Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate. No one's making any more of it, and it's a recognizable, tangible asset. Even women can smell fake gold from the real thing a mile away.

The fact that no one sees your sarcasm makes me proud.

Marry me.
 
2008-01-14 01:38:14 PM  
So there is a 50% chance of NOT having a recession ...

/hopes for the best
 
2008-01-14 01:40:40 PM  
Some say the glass is half empty.

Some say the glass is half full.

I say, time to develop a taste for canned corn beef, and to find that boxes of shotgun ammo accessorize every decor.
 
2008-01-14 01:41:00 PM  
soze: You're being glib. You don't know the history of economics, I do.

Grin.

Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate. No one's making any more of it, and it's a recognizable, tangible asset.

Yes, Gold, Real Estate, and Tulips. Tangible assets.
 
2008-01-14 01:42:08 PM  
mmm... pancake: Chances of a recession are 100%. There will always be recessions. They are inevitable.

Thank you. Please let the media know. They think this phenomenon is new and we are headed towards the apocalypse.
 
2008-01-14 01:43:38 PM  
Snarfangel: soze: Have you seen the markets recently? Gold is just as solid and valuable as real estate. No one's making any more of it, and it's a recognizable, tangible asset. Even women can smell fake gold from the real thing a mile away.

I think we should go to a land value standard. Not only is the supply fixed, it's harder to hoard or corner the market on.


The Feudal System called. They want their economy back.
 
2008-01-14 01:43:45 PM  
Recession = not good
Recession + Inflation = bad
Recession + Hyperinflation = tragic
 
2008-01-14 01:48:11 PM  
i made this for another thread, but i think it applies in a different way here

i89.photobucket.com
 
2008-01-14 01:51:29 PM  
Let us dance with gold.
z.about.com


ec1.images-amazon.com
USA....umm...gold standard...umm...hot chick....bikini..yeah...USA!
 
2008-01-14 01:52:00 PM  
wolvernova: Recession = not good
Recession + Inflation = bad
Recession + Hyperinflation = tragic


We survived the Carter years. We can survive this.
Wake me when they start broadcasting the Misery Index on the news each night.
 
2008-01-14 01:54:22 PM  
Evil Twin Skippy: The Feudal System called. They want their economy back.

Not if you replace income and sales taxes with land value taxation. Those "feudal lords" would be the ones paying the taxes.
 
2008-01-14 01:55:51 PM  
And here's your handy recession survival guide, courtesy Dave Ramsey:

1) Create an emergency fund with $1,000 in it.
2) Aggressively pay off all debts, with the exception of your mortgage.
3) Increase your emergency fund to contain 3-6 months' worth of living expenses.
4) Invest 15% of your household income into a 401k, Roth IRA, etc.
5) Fund a 529 college savings plan for each child (if applicable).
6) Pay off your mortgage early.

Also recommended for when times are good.
 
2008-01-14 01:57:22 PM  
amazing_live_seamonkeys: Ooh! Big money! Big money! No Whammies!

STOP.

/Petulantly sarcastic, or seriously serious?
 
2008-01-14 01:57:25 PM  
wolvernova: Recession = not good
Recession + Inflation = bad
Recession + Hyperinflation = tragic


Deflation == RunToTheHills.

Honestly, I'd rather have hyper inflation than have the mess that results when the banking system seizes up.

you can sort of manage your way around hyper inflation, but deflation? we're in a world of fark.

and as for the keyes comment above, we haven't seen keynesian economics praticed in a very long time. Maybe since Kennedy.

This mess is squarely the result of Mr. Milton Friedman. May we bury his supply side voodoo with his body.
 
2008-01-14 01:57:36 PM  
Saturn5: We survived the Carter years. We can survive this.
Wake me when they start broadcasting the Misery Index on the news each night.


You're dreaming if you think this will be like the Carter years.
 
2008-01-14 02:10:03 PM  
recession?

oh wait, i'm in Houston and oil's somewhere about $100 a barrel.

course we'll have a bunch of homeloan defaulting sooner or later, it's easy to find where that's gonna be

cheap houses packed like apt's, the next new ghetto's?

boom is good, busts always happen, i wish i'd heard dave ramsey years ago.

/there's a coherent thought somewhere, in the meantime i'm going back to hitting the coffee
 
2008-01-14 02:14:16 PM  
"No president since Jimmy Carter has destroyed the dollar as much as this administration." -Steve Forbes (new window)
 
2008-01-14 02:20:13 PM  
wolvernova: Saturn5: We survived the Carter years. We can survive this.
Wake me when they start broadcasting the Misery Index on the news each night.

You're dreaming if you think this will be like the Carter years.


Oh hell, we'll see comparisons to the "Hoover Years" before this is over.
 
2008-01-14 02:25:01 PM  
The Stealth Hippopotamus

It's your standard Ron Paul plan, sounds wonderful as long as you have no clue about the real world

Dude - have you ever heard RP speak, in detail, about economics?

Do you realize how long he served in the house banking committee? the joint economic committee? the committee on financial services?

Did you know he studied under Hans Sennholz and Murray Rothbard?

Did you know he guest lectures re: economics at the Ludwid von Mises Institute?

Did you know that Milton Friedman endorsed Ron Paul?


And you're going to accuse him of lacking credentials? Brilliant.
 
2008-01-14 02:26:26 PM  
That said, the chance of recession (even in the near future) is 100%.

The real debate is whether we're going to suffer deflation, hyperinflation, or stagflation.
 
2008-01-14 02:36:22 PM  
nevesis: The real debate is whether we're going to suffer deflation, hyperinflation, or stagflation.

yep. and i betcha that we'll go the hyperinflation route. they're going to cut interest rates to near nothing.

(so, the advice for those who care is: load up on real estate debt, and pay it back with much, much cheaper dollars. if you can stomach this re market. and can get a loan.)
 
2008-01-14 03:43:07 PM  
It's a genuine bunch of bastards that want to talk-down the economy before the elections just to help their political party.

FU
 
2008-01-14 04:08:58 PM  
So what? I'd rather have a bunch of recessions in my life than 1 Great Depression.
 
2008-01-14 04:18:13 PM  
The Stealth Hippopotamus: There is no way that we could buy enough gold to back our own currency that we have out right now.

That's not a problem. We'll just print more money to buy back the gold, and then because of inflation, the gold will be worth more.
 
2008-01-14 04:53:18 PM  
Mayhem of the Black Underclass: amazing_live_seamonkeys: Ooh! Big money! Big money! No Whammies!

STOP.

/Petulantly sarcastic, or seriously serious?


A little from column A, a little from column B.
 
2008-01-14 05:15:55 PM  
Gold bubble.

I'll take ownership in companies that produce goods and services over stuff that comes out of the ground any day.

/that is all.
 
2008-01-14 05:56:13 PM  
soze: We need the gold standard deflation. If We need Ron Paul brought back the gold standard, we could have deflation that would make the Great Depression look like 1987.
 
2008-01-14 06:34:32 PM  
bronyaur1: soze: We need the gold standard deflation. If We need Ron Paul brought back the gold standard, we could have deflation that would make the Great Depression look like 1987.

Good point (no sarcasm).

I've also heard convincing arguments against hyper-inflation, you can never count it out 100% of course but 99% is good enough for me. The general premise is globalisation of production means an almost unlimited amount of suppliers. And GM foods will be/are being used to fight current shortages, so there could be short-term inflation pressures until production catches up, with food, possibly not metals.

As to recession, it's all relative. Growth figures this year will be a bit sucky, and get better later as Ben's cuts impact the market (50bp this time, I'll wager).

/My glass is full
//Hick!
 
2008-01-14 07:20:19 PM  
Uh-oh the cult of Dave Ramsey strikes again...
 
2008-01-14 08:03:12 PM  
"2) Aggressively pay off all debts, with the exception of your mortgage."

Why would we want to do this during hyperinflation?
 
2008-01-14 10:39:00 PM  
spend yo moneys
 
2008-01-15 01:18:05 AM  
Yeah life was real easy in the 30s! DUMBASSES. And nowdays all the food needs to travel at least 1000km... I SEE MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF FOODS AND RIOTS.
 
2008-01-15 01:57:26 AM  
lolmao666: And nowdays all the food needs to travel at least 1000km

Mostly Americans here, and we don't understand that 'km' thing very well. Is 1000km a lot?

What's the matter with breaking things down into nice round 5280 feet increments?
 
2008-01-15 04:36:28 AM  
The metric system is the tool of the devil and using it is exactly what causes these problems in the first place.
 
2008-01-15 05:50:26 PM  
Travis McGee: And here's your handy recession survival guide, courtesy Dave Ramsey:

I for one think that David Ramsey is highly overrated. I'm getting all my financial advice from Gordon Ramsey now...

m.blog.hu

"Bloody Wanker! I wouldn't sell those SIVs and CDOs to pigs! Are you trying to bleeping poison me?!"
 
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