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(Yahoo)   NOAA, the same agency that has been so accurate at predicting hurricanes, has affirmed dire predictions of sea ice loss. In other words, a new Ice Age is coming   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 148
    More: Unlikely  
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2786 clicks; posted to Main » on 07 Sep 2007 at 6:57 PM (7 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2007-09-07 02:58:57 PM  
An analysis of 20 years' worth of real-life observations...

Good Lord! Is this from the Department of Pulling Statisitics Out of Our Backside?

Using 20 years of real-life observations to predict what will happen climatologically in 2050, is like taking the DOW-JONES average at 2:37PM today and insisting you know where the market will be next year.
 
2007-09-07 03:05:57 PM  
This is a situation that really needs to be ignored, that way it will just fade off and never become a problem.
 
2007-09-07 03:12:26 PM  
New ice age and global warming will cancel each other out! works out perfectly for everyone!
 
2007-09-07 03:13:11 PM  
And I.....I live by the river
 
2007-09-07 03:16:02 PM  
BunkoSquad
And I.....I live by the river

Thread over.
 
2007-09-07 03:17:41 PM  
adiabat: Is this from the Department of Pulling Statisitics Out of Our Backside?

No, but comparing predictive climate models to predictive market models would be exactly that.
 
2007-09-07 03:19:11 PM  
adiabat: like taking the DOW-JONES average at 2:37PM today and insisting you know where the market will be next year.

You can't do that?
 
2007-09-07 03:25:01 PM  
adiabat: insisting you know where the market will be next year.

It'll be up.
 
2007-09-07 03:27:01 PM  
An analysis of 20 years' worth of real-life observations supports recent U.N. computer predictions that by 2050, summer sea ice off Alaska's north coast will probably shrink to nearly half the area it covered in the 1980s, federal scientists say.


...and when you're studying geological processes that can take hundreds of thousands of years to complete, 20 years of data ain't much to base a conclusion on, is it?
 
2007-09-07 03:39:49 PM  
Besides, if it does become serious then Jesus will just take care of it for us. I can't see any reason at all to plan ahead or be concerned about the future.
 
2007-09-07 03:42:26 PM  
Weaver95: An analysis of 20 years' worth of real-life observations supports recent U.N. computer predictions that by 2050, summer sea ice off Alaska's north coast will probably shrink to nearly half the area it covered in the 1980s, federal scientists say.


...and when you're studying geological processes that can take hundreds of thousands of years to complete, 20 years of data ain't much to base a conclusion on, is it?


Yes, it is, when it is talking about other short-term trends. It's also more than 20 years of data.

The question is not "Will the ice eventually come back", but rather "does the current data imply that if current trends persist X will happen".
 
2007-09-07 04:07:07 PM  
A lot of my friends work for NOAA.

fun fact: they're actually part of the military. I think they're a branch of the Navy, or some kind of weird quasi-independent organiztion.
 
2007-09-07 04:17:16 PM  
Mordant: I can't see any reason at all to plan ahead or be concerned about the future.

Can you loan me $100?
 
2007-09-07 04:20:28 PM  
Weaver95: An analysis of 20 years' worth of real-life observations supports recent U.N. computer predictions that by 2050, summer sea ice off Alaska's north coast will probably shrink to nearly half the area it covered in the 1980s, federal scientists say.

...and when you're studying geological processes that can take hundreds of thousands of years to complete, 20 years of data ain't much to base a conclusion on, is it?


It's enough to take a good guess. Of course that's all geological and meteorological predictions are, good guesses.

Still it's enough that it warrants more research and caution. Just not the wide-scale panic the media likes to promote.

After all, if the NOAA says a hurricane's coming you might think they're full of shiat but you're a complete dumbass if you completely ignore their warnings.
 
2007-09-07 04:32:28 PM  
netweavr: It's enough to take a good guess. Of course that's all geological and meteorological predictions are, good guesses.

Just like the last guesses, which had us all covered by polar ice caps by 1987.
 
2007-09-07 04:44:52 PM  
A new Ice Age is coming? Awesome! I loved Ice Age! Ice Age 2 The Big Meltdown was ok. Wonder what this one will be called?

Ice Age The Return of Al Gore
Ice Age The GW Bushman Cometh
Ice Age Leaving Momma's Basement

*shivers with anticipation*
 
2007-09-07 04:45:18 PM  
Yeah, global climate prediction is as mature and sure a science as astronomy or math.
 
2007-09-07 04:56:18 PM  
Weaver95: netweavr: It's enough to take a good guess. Of course that's all geological and meteorological predictions are, good guesses.

Just like the last guesses, which had us all covered by polar ice caps by 1987.


When did the that happen?

/BTW, if I don't respond it's because it's a busy day
 
2007-09-07 05:10:41 PM  
Let's take a look at facts:
not counting the Little Ice Age

The last Ice age was about 10,000 years ago.
Ice ages average about 40,000 to 100,000 year intervals.

Now let's guess:
The periods between ice ages are going to be WARMER

Now your forecast for tomorrow:
A 100% chance of weather with a gradual increase in light, before a gradual decrease in light.

/this science shiat is easy
 
2007-09-07 07:00:57 PM  
Sheesh, WHY? Ice Age II was pathetic compared to the original.
 
2007-09-07 07:02:59 PM  
metatronlord: A new Ice Age is coming? Awesome! I loved Ice Age! Ice Age 2 The Big Meltdown was ok. Wonder what this one will be called?

Ice Age The Return of Al Gore
Ice Age The GW Bushman Cometh
Ice Age Leaving Momma's Basement

*shivers with anticipation*


Came in to mention the movies. Glad I wasn't disappointed.

/*shivers with you*
 
2007-09-07 07:05:05 PM  
The fact is, meta studies of scientific journals show an decrease in the number of studies that point to human involvement.

But hey, a politician said it was happening so it must be true, because those guys are trustworthy and never lie. The high production values just add to the truthiness.

Keep drinking the kool-aid, you non-scientists who believe everything the media says but have NO first hand knowledge of anything related to global warming.

Parrots.
 
2007-09-07 07:05:32 PM  
FTA: "It's absolutely horrifying from the polar bear perspective,"

Colbert will be glad to hear that.

*queue 'Won't somebody think about the polar bears!?!?' picture*
 
2007-09-07 07:08:15 PM  
I predict water will freeze at 0 degrees C. I cannot predict where an individual molecule will be when it happens.

I predict there will be congestion on the 405 in Santa Monica tomorrow. I cannot predict where your car will be stuck.

Hurricanes /= large scale climate phenomena like warming and loss of ice.

It's called levels of explanation, people.
 
2007-09-07 07:11:15 PM  
Weaver95: Just like the last guesses, which had us all covered by polar ice caps by 1987.

You Know that's BS don't you? I mean, you've been shown that the supposed '70s cooling hysteria is completely fiction made up by right wing pundits, right? I mean, you're not a noob to these discussions. I've seen you here, and I know you've seen that the '70s cooling predictions consisted of about 2 news articles that didn't go into enough detail and a couple of scientists who were pretty damn clear about saying their conclusions were rather preliminary. You also had the rest of the scientific community saying that the informaton wasn't very compelling, and that there wasn't enough data to conclude either warming or cooling. No scientific academies/organizations endorsed the cooling hypothesis. No governments endorsed the cooling hypothesis.

SO basically, every time you bring up this "OMG, they said there woul be teh coolingzzzz!" argument, you show yourself to be incapable of incorporating new information.

And THAT weakens your argument.

So cut it out, okay, if you want to be taken seriously.
 
2007-09-07 07:14:13 PM  
I predict that the submitter will continue to be ignorant of the difference between climate prediction and weather prediction.
 
2007-09-07 07:15:58 PM  
I live directly across from NOAA. Let me know if anybody wants me to go over and smack somebody.

/ also live just down the street from the Discovery channel.
// really.
 
2007-09-07 07:16:06 PM  
It must be hard to be a climatologist with a PhD and years of research behind you and have your work dumped on by a huge army of ignorant assholes whose GEDs are barely worth the copy paper they are printed on.
 
2007-09-07 07:16:07 PM  
Weaver95: netweavr: It's enough to take a good guess. Of course that's all geological and meteorological predictions are, good guesses.

Just like the last guesses, which had us all covered by polar ice caps by 1987.


Those models were based on a "nuclear winter" scenario, not predictive of greenhouse type climate change.

And computing power and modeling mathematics have (surprise) improved since the late 80's.

However, I too find the rampant fear-mongering and hypocracy of celebrities and politicians with NO scientific background rather unsavory, to use a polite term.

The non polite term would be fake ass morans sowing disrepute on legitimate science. Hideous behavior, for if it weren't for science they wouldn't be able to EAT much less spew unintelligent diatribes over the airwaves.
 
2007-09-07 07:16:53 PM  
They're usually pretty close on the number, just not where they'll be.

In other words, what theodicey said.

/subby fails
 
2007-09-07 07:18:39 PM  
NOAA, the same agency that has been so accurate at predicting hurricanes

They do a very good job tracking them
 
2007-09-07 07:19:06 PM  
www.southparkstuff.com
 
2007-09-07 07:21:56 PM  
Last June 21st there were 13 hours and 54 minutes of sunshine outside my house at 27.5 degrees north latitude.

That number is not just something I pulled out of my hat, many thousands of people saw it, and it was recorded by accurate clocks many times over.

Since then, the amount of sunshine has been dwindling steadily, by an average of about one minute per day. That is also a matter of record.

If this trend continues, then by December 21st there will be only 10 hours and 6 minutes of sunshine. We will have lost 3 hours and 48 minutes of daylight in six short months.

At that rate, in just a little under 16 more months, by roughly March 2009, the sun will go down permanently, and never rise again. It will stay dark forever and we will all die. Maybe we will freeze to death, or maybe we will run out of food because no plants can grow. Maybe we will suffocate for lack of oxygen because there is no sun to drive photosynthesis, but whatever happens, it will be horrible.

I alone know how to stop this, and I alone can save you.

The answer is all those roosters: they keep cackadoodling to cause the sun to rise, and if they don't cackadoodle long enough, or start early enough, the sun won't ise soon enough to do any good.

I understand all this because I am the Advanced Grand Master of Cackadoodleism, I studied under the late Great Leghorn T. Foghorn, the Cock of Doodle Doo. He taught me the great secrets of cackadoodlism, and I am willing to save you----for a price.

I want $10 billion cash, 100 shapely young "research assistants(big boobs optional, round heels a must)," unlimited rations of Chivas Regal, Heineken, Vancouver Sinsemilla, sirloin steak and lobster tail, along with a Hobie Cat, a Corvette, two jet skis, a Gold Wing and a 55-foot blue-water schooner, ketch-rigged please.

I will also need a Lear Jet, 2 Bell Jet Ranger 206 happy flappers, a house about equal to Bill Gates' pad or better yet, the Playboy Mansion West, along with plenty of servants to run it all.

Do all of this and I will save the world. Rebuke me, and you will all freeze in the dark. The choice is yours.

"----for I am the Way, the Truth, and the Light, and no man cometh unto the sunshine but through me---so get up off your fat lazy ass and fetch me another beer, dammit!"---Dinosaur, 9:7
 
2007-09-07 07:26:09 PM  
But will it happen the day before, or two days before the day after tomorrow.
 
2007-09-07 07:28:13 PM  
olddinosaur: blah blah blah

Yep. those darn scientists with they high falutin' lifestyles gettin all dat dere muney for dat dere sciency stuff done got the wool sure pulled over yer eyes, don't they. Prais the Lord we got you to figure all dat out, olddinosaur.

Oh wait, there is more money in maintaining rampant non-renewable energy use. Jesus tapdancin' christ, that fat fark from Exxon made more money than EVERY farkING SCIENTIST ON EARTH last year.

But you are right, it IS about the money.
 
2007-09-07 07:28:20 PM  
Dibs on my very own Smilodon!

/not Denis Leary
//or that guy from ER
 
2007-09-07 07:28:37 PM  
olddinosaur: I understand all this because I am the Advanced Grand Master of Cackadoodleism, I studied under the late Great Leghorn T. Foghorn, the Cock of Doodle Doo. He taught me the great secrets of cackadoodlism, and I am willing to save you----for a price.


If you think it's all about the money, you should take another look at the NOAA salaries.

How about this? You and I each put a dollar in a box for 20 years. Whoever's right gets it at the end.

Deal or no deal?

/if not, STFU
 
2007-09-07 07:28:37 PM  
vernon
A lot of my friends work for NOAA.

fun fact: they're actually part of the military. I think they're a branch of the Navy, or some kind of weird quasi-independent organiztion.


I work at NOAA, so I am really getting a kick... yada yada yada

Anyway - the NOAA Corps is a uniformed service - much like the public health service. They can be called upon in times of war, but they are not military - like under DoD or something (actually, we're under the Department of Commerce - go figure). There are only 299 of them (legislated limit) compared to the 10k+ people who work for NOAA.

/the more you know...
//Silver Spring for the win
 
2007-09-07 07:29:24 PM  
kilgorn: NOAA, the same agency that has been so accurate at predicting hurricanes

They do a very good job tracking them


Exactly, don't fault the weatherman when people are just too poor or too stupid to get out of the way.
 
2007-09-07 07:33:10 PM  
WE DIDN'T LISTEN!!


/i'll stop
 
2007-09-07 07:36:25 PM  
Daughter of the Blood: WE DIDN'T LISTEN!!


/i'll stop


lolwhut?
 
2007-09-07 07:36:52 PM  
Daughter of the Blood: WE DIDN'T LISTEN!!


/i'll stop


I broke the dam... NO, I broke the dam. (dramatic music)


/thread demands that SP episode.
 
2007-09-07 07:38:19 PM  
Did I just get trolled?
 
2007-09-07 07:40:10 PM  
No Bet "Mr.Gunn", and here's why:

We are coming to the end of a 400-year heating cycle, which started roughly 1600 c.e. but these things don't follow the calendar all that exactly, and refuse to hew to round-number years.

400 years ago it was so cold it was called "the Little Ice Age." 400 years prior to that it was so hot, Viking colonies thrived on the southern tip of Greenland, no mean feat on 12th Century technology with only an occasional longboat for resupply.

Since we are at the peak of the hot part of the cycle, it makes sense there will be wild weather; there is more energy in the atmosphere, how could it be otherwise?

My long term worry is something much bigger: All of our seed grains are custom-adapted to an abnormally high temperature, and of the weather ever turns cold, for even a few decades, there could be massive worldwide food shortages; no problem in America where even poor people are fat and people will pay $2 for a little bottle of water imported all the way from Fiji, only drink half and throw the rest away, but a serious issue for a poor third-world nation--especially one with no oil.

As for Global Warming, Al Gore is the same man who sold us NAFTA in 1994; everyone basking in prosperity? Canadians and Mexicans as well?

I didn't trust him then, and I don't trust him now.
 
2007-09-07 07:40:52 PM  
Damn you, Fark. I've got people coming over and you green a climate change thread.

Anyone care to summarize the contrarian arguments in this thread for me?
 
2007-09-07 07:41:05 PM  
vernonFL
A lot of my friends work for NOAA.
fun fact: they're actually part of the military. I think they're a branch of the Navy, or some kind of weird quasi-independent organiztion.


Another fun fact: there's a BIG MOTHERFARKIN' HAND STATUE right outside their HQ.

random.adam.googlepages.com

/I live across the street
//the statue is pretty when it snows
 
2007-09-07 07:41:15 PM  
Locutus of Borg: Daughter of the Blood: WE DIDN'T LISTEN!!


/i'll stop

lolwhut?


Partial explination (new window)
 
2007-09-07 07:45:15 PM  
Locutus of Borg

Did I just get trolled?


Nope, you got South Parked :p


Sahrial
Daughter of the Blood: WE DIDN'T LISTEN!!


/i'll stop

I broke the dam... NO, I broke the dam. (dramatic music)


/thread demands that SP episode.



Another good one!
 
2007-09-07 07:50:30 PM  
Sahrial: Locutus of Borg: Daughter of the Blood: WE DIDN'T LISTEN!!


/i'll stop

lolwhut?

Partial explination (new window)


aw crap, I shoulda got that one. Penis.

C0rf: vernonFL
A lot of my friends work for NOAA.
fun fact: they're actually part of the military. I think they're a branch of the Navy, or some kind of weird quasi-independent organiztion.

Another fun fact: there's a BIG MOTHERFARKIN' HAND STATUE right outside their HQ.



/I live across the street
//the statue is pretty when it snows


That reminds me of the statue in Deus Ex (what was it, MJII or something headquarters?)
 
2007-09-07 07:55:09 PM  
olddinosaur: We are coming to the end of a 400-year heating cycle, which started roughly 1600 c.e. but these things don't follow the calendar all that exactly, and refuse to hew to round-number years.

400 years ago it was so cold it was called "the Little Ice Age." 400 years prior to that it was so hot, Viking colonies thrived on the southern tip of Greenland, no mean feat on 12th Century technology with only an occasional longboat for resupply.

Since we are at the peak of the hot part of the cycle, it makes sense there will be wild weather; there is more energy in the atmosphere, how could it be otherwise?


Why are current global temps warmer than during the so-called Medieval Warm Period? What causes your alleged 400 year cycle?
 
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