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(Yahoo)   NOAA announces that La Nina will not happen for at least two more months. Which is either really good news or time to start evacuating Tampa   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 55
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4293 clicks; posted to Main » on 14 Jul 2007 at 11:49 AM (7 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2007-07-14 10:41:09 AM  
Are these the guys that predicted a hyper-active hurricane season last summer?
 
2007-07-14 11:55:49 AM  
It that spanish for "the nina"?
 
2007-07-14 11:55:52 AM  
doesn't la nina stand for "the little nina"?
 
2007-07-14 11:56:09 AM  
I love listening to the "experts" from Colorado.
 
2007-07-14 11:56:11 AM  
yep, may as well throw darts on a board to predict the weather
 
2007-07-14 11:56:28 AM  
Everyone forget the farking accent mark of a non English word?!

La Niña (lä nēn'yä)
n.
A cooling of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America, occurring periodically every 4 to 12 years and affecting Pacific and other weather patterns.

[American Spanish, the girl (to distinguish it from El Niño) : Spanish la, the (from Latin illa, feminine of ille) + niña, daughter (from Old Spanish ninna, from Vulgar Latin *nīnna).]
 
2007-07-14 11:57:23 AM  
hometown.aol.com

How much for the little girl?!
 
2007-07-14 12:00:20 PM  
These threads get posted way too quickly.

/just sayin'
 
2007-07-14 12:02:31 PM  
Bring em on!
 
2007-07-14 12:05:50 PM  
tlchwi02: doesn't la nina stand for "the little nina"?

Don't forget the Pinta, and Santa Maria!!! ...and Poland too, can't forget Poland.
 
2007-07-14 12:11:33 PM  
They couldn't evacuate Tampa in two months if they tried.

Remember that time they tried evacuating Houston? People spent 16 hours in their cars and got five miles, then with the last of their gas drove across the medians and went back home. Odds were better in their house than in their car.
 
2007-07-14 12:16:59 PM  
This might be of better use...
 
2007-07-14 12:18:24 PM  
kscakes.com
 
2007-07-14 12:18:40 PM  
i2.photobucket.com
 
2007-07-14 12:35:05 PM  
Farley, el nino, RIP

Link (new window)
 
2007-07-14 12:42:51 PM  
Not only hogwash---dangerous hogwash.

There is no way to predict hurricanes, either on a wholesale or on a retail level.

2004 was excpected to be average, but turned out to be the worst year in history.

2005 was predicted to be worse, yet there was hardly any action; mildest year in decades.

2006 was predicted to be average to slightly worse, turned out to be milder tnan usual.

2007--I forget what the magic 8-ball said, I don't pay any attention to such crap. So far it has been a mild year, but we are not out of ther woods yet.

We have a saying in my home town: "Only two kinds of people believe the weatherman--a tourist, and a damn fool."
 
2007-07-14 12:47:37 PM  
Daffydil : Good Mourning Mastriss. Should I do the Laundry today?
 
2007-07-14 12:52:29 PM  
olddinosaur: Not only hogwash---dangerous hogwash.

2005 was predicted to be worse, yet there was hardly any action; mildest year in decades.


i194.photobucket.com

2005 Mild? Looty thanks you for your humor.

Look up, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.
Matter of fact, they ran out of letters and had to start using the greek alphabet.
 
2007-07-14 12:55:12 PM  
You're right, I got my years wrong.

2004 was the year of the tsunami.

Main point is still valid, they predict dire catastrophe and nothing happens---then after crying wolf too many times, public is lulled into a false sense of security.
 
2007-07-14 01:00:47 PM  
Its too late!!
i92.photobucket.com
 
2007-07-14 01:02:31 PM  
IT'S CATURDAY!!!
i191.photobucket.com
 
2007-07-14 01:03:54 PM  
Daffydil :Please E-Mail my instructions for today. Shall I scrub the oil on garage floor soon?
 
2007-07-14 01:17:38 PM  
Good job on geography to both submittitard and modditard

Tampa =! Pacific ocean
 
2007-07-14 01:34:48 PM  
Bob Dolemite: Good job on geography to both submittitard and modditard

Tampa =! Pacific ocean


Good job RTFA moron. The first paragraph:

MIAMI - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that La Nina - a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that generally brings a more active Atlantic hurricane season - will be absent for the next two months.
 
2007-07-14 01:48:20 PM  
GIS result for La Nina:

i106.photobucket.com

I could wait a month or two for that...
 
2007-07-14 01:48:57 PM  
EvilToni: Good job RTFA moron. The first paragraph:

I know. That's the farking point. Did you read the farking headline?

deuche
 
2007-07-14 01:49:13 PM  
www.mcglinchey.com

La nina => Spanish for the nina.
 
2007-07-14 01:49:24 PM  
What is la nina in spanglish?
 
2007-07-14 01:52:44 PM  
sofla39: I love listening to the "experts" from Colorado.

You've probably moved on, to inject witty quips into other threads, but the article had nothing to do with Colorado forecasters. Further for olddino and the like, 2005 was predicted to be far above average, and was: June 2005 forecast. 2006 was busted partly because of a very late and quickly-developed El Nino: Linky

The long term forecasts are based on a number of statistical predictors, then refined as the season goes on. The CSU forecasts, and I'm pretty sure NOAA as well, show much more skill than simply relying on the climatology.
Feel free to read up a bit instead of adding the knee jerk 'teh forecast suckzx ahahahahaha'...or don't. It is Fark after all.

/weather geek
//at CSU
///but not working w/hurricanes
 
2007-07-14 01:54:57 PM  
o yeah...we still got the florida farker "who's gonna die in a hurricane" map
 
2007-07-14 01:56:43 PM  
piperhaggis:
/weather geek
//at CSU
///but not working w/hurricanes


That's good

It takes a ferocious bad hurricane before you can work with it in CO
 
2007-07-14 02:06:10 PM  
Well, as long as the hurricane hits Tampa after 6pm, no one will be there to be affected.
img261.imageshack.us
Shot at 2007-07-14
 
2007-07-14 02:14:52 PM  
downtown Tampa is a ghost town, that's why I love St. Pete. People shouldn't evacuate in the event of a hurricane unless they're sick or elderly. My great-grandma lived through the one that made St. Pete an island for a little while. When my mom asked her one Thanksgiving if she evacuated, the then ninety yr old women sneered and said "it's just some wind & water." New Orleans was unique - a bowl full of very poor people governed by very incompetent people.
 
2007-07-14 02:43:39 PM  
As with all aspects of science:

Do you BELIEVE in La Nina?

Because after 400 years of scientific method, isn't that what's most important?
 
2007-07-14 02:44:43 PM  
piperhaggis: sofla39: I love listening to the "experts" from Colorado.

You've probably moved on, to inject witty quips into other threads, but the article had nothing to do with Colorado forecasters.


Pay no mind, apparently some people cant distinguish between NOAA and NORAD..
 
2007-07-14 02:52:20 PM  
Postal Penguin [TotalFark] Quote 2007-07-14 10:41:09 AM
*Are these the guys that predicted a hyper-active hurricane season last summer?*

Actually, it was the AlGore crowd who stated that 'Global Warming' would cause more-frequent, and more-intense, hurricanes. -- Basically, a Katrina every month.
 
2007-07-14 02:54:52 PM  
All I know is that after mowing my crispy yard in 99º weather, I'd like some rain here, south of Tampa.
 
2007-07-14 03:05:28 PM  
Dick_Hertz: Postal Penguin [TotalFark] Quote 2007-07-14 10:41:09 AM
*Are these the guys that predicted a hyper-active hurricane season last summer?*

Actually, it was the AlGore crowd who stated that 'Global Warming' would cause more-frequent, and more-intense, hurricanes. -- Basically, a Katrina every month.


i194.photobucket.com

Oh, allright, blame me.
I mean, come on now.
I didn't forecast the weather.
I just explained, over and over, a thousand times,
that you people are gonna be sorry. You'll see.
And thanks for turning a weather thread into a political flamewar.
 
2007-07-14 03:32:13 PM  
Why do so many people leave out the space between "Al" and "Gore" when typing his name?

Just curious...

/gore for prez, 2008 & 2012
//it'll definitely take two terms to begin to heal what BushCo has done to the country
 
2007-07-14 03:37:47 PM  
mikaloyd:
///but not working w/hurricanes

That's good

It takes a ferocious bad hurricane before you can work with it in CO



Haven't you seen Category 7? Or maybe that was tornadoes....
 
2007-07-14 03:47:16 PM  
˜
 
2007-07-14 04:41:01 PM  
I miss El Nino:

And then it occurs to me: it's farking El Nino! Yeah, that's what it is. Some guy gets caught raping a dead squirrel, someone's gonna blame El Nino for it! This is all El Nino's fault, because that's where the aliens live with their damn mind rays that are making everyone farking retarded! fark South America! So I fire a bunch of nukes in South America, so everyone's heads will be suddenly be extracted from their asses again! And I do it anime-style too! I'll narrate it as I'm doing it, so, so I'm like "Ooh, did you know that I would send the most powerful force in the universe to destroy you today, but now you know, because I'm the great warrior whose spirit was imprisoned by the god of penile dysfunction over a thousand years ago and I awaited to be awakened on this very day by Mexico by the sound of the very last human putting its head up its ass, ooh!" because that's a wonderful story, you know, that's what makes anime so wonderful, it's the story! -Ranting Gryphon
 
2007-07-14 04:58:48 PM  
Tresser: o yeah...we still got the florida farker "who's gonna die in a hurricane" map

That link is farked.

/Live in Florida
//would love to see that map :)
 
2007-07-14 05:05:10 PM  
but what does AccuWeather say? they predicted this summer would be record highs for everyone but Texas, and from as far as I can tell, that's true. everyone outside of Texas i've talked to is melting, but this is the coolest Texas summer in years (maybe decades?). so suffice it to say, i trust AccuWeather now.
 
2007-07-14 05:42:55 PM  
piperhaggis: mikaloyd:
///but not working w/hurricanes

That's good

It takes a ferocious bad hurricane before you can work with it in CO


Haven't you seen Category 7? Or maybe that was tornadoes....


Tornadoes are just baisicly male hurricanes, they dont carry all that excess waterweight, their eye is blind and they are constantly chasing tail.

/Before some weatherhead attempts to correct this post with his heartfelt accurate descriptions of tornadoes and cyclones and hurricanes and anticyclones and what-have-you.... know this: you have lost all touch with your sense of humor.
/Not that there is anything wrong with that
//Unless you want to interact with other humans sometimes rather than atmospheric phenomena.
 
2007-07-14 05:56:43 PM  
olddinosaur: 2005 was predicted to be worse, yet there was hardly any action; mildest year in decades.

I have a few hundred thousand neighbors who'd disagree.

Conventional Louisiana wisdom: the mild and harsh storm seasons alternate, more or less. Good year, bad year, good year, bad year. After 2005, everybody down here this summer has an asshole so tight you could pop a bottle cap with it. Normally, I'd say to ignore conventional LA wisdom, but when it comes to food or hurricanes, I'd pay attention.

destrip: Why do so many people leave out the space between "Al" and "Gore" when typing his name?

Old Limbaugh meme. During the early Clinton years, RL started a regular skit where Dr. Clintonstein and his trusty sidekick Algore would try to make a welfare monster, or some such crap. The good side is that this makes it easy to spot the dittoheads. I'm lookin at you, Dick_Hertz.

piperhaggis: Haven't you seen Category 7? Or maybe that was tornadoes....

*blink*

powdah: Pay no mind, apparently some people cant distinguish between NOAA and NORAD.

The only way to win is not to play.
 
2007-07-14 06:11:27 PM  
darnit I just moved to Tampa!!!! :(
 
2007-07-14 06:41:26 PM  
Hey, hold on there!

I already said I got my years wrong, but my facts are right:

You cannot predict hurricanes, either year by year, nor one storm at a time.

If you listen to predictions, you are putting yourself in danger.

One thing which is absolutely proven about hurricanes is, they are totally and completely unpedictable.

Good example is Hurricane Celia, which smacked Corpus Christi in 1971: It started out in he classic pattern, made the usual right turn and was bearing up on Galveston when we went to bed, thinking we were safe. Well, it hung a U-turn in the middle of the night, and roared across the Gulf on a collision course with Corpus Christi. We woke up with a monster on our doorstep, and no time to prepare.

Another good example is Key West, 1935-1998. Everyone had lulled themselves into a false sense of security, because: "---uh, we can't get hit because Cuba to he south forms a natural barrier and deflects the storms, or maybe because the surrounding water is too shallow to hold enough heat, or maybe for some other reason. I forget what exactly, but I remember when I bought my house, the real estate agent told me clearly: we CAN NOT get hit by hurricanes!"

Well, so much for conventional wisdom.

If you want to stay alive, you plan for the worst and hope it doesn't happen.
 
2007-07-14 07:21:47 PM  
olddinosaur

Not going to disagree with your 'prepare for the worst' philosophy, but both seasonal and track hurricane forecasts are *somewhat* predictable, as evidenced by model forecast skill. One obvious case in point being Katrina.

Goes far beyond the conventional wisdom of the 70s. Can't believe a real estate agent would've been wrong as well.
 
2007-07-14 08:24:38 PM  
olddinosaur: One thing which is absolutely proven about hurricanes is, they are totally and completely unpedictable.

Oh for heaven's sake.

Ya know, they keep stats on the accuracy of predicted paths. You maybe should check it out.
 
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