there are way too many games in baseball.

I second NewportBarGuy's prediction.

I hope they actually keep a consistent winning streak throughout the season.. unlike last year where they started strong and then flopped.

Go Sox!

NewportBarGuy: Yeah, that Curt Schilling guy is total crap.

Dude is 40, and was a combination of hurt and terrible in 2005. Last year, he rebounded to league-average-#2-ish form, and reaped a 15-7 record by being on a good offensive team. He also missed a big chunk of 2003 with injuries.

Good guy to have on your team, but not exactly the safest bet to start the "ZOMG! 125-37!" bus just yet. After him, you have Beckett (?????), Wakefield (also 40, unimpressive last year, only 140 IP), and the Papelbon/Lester duo where you have clear talent but not much experience.

Pitching-wise, it's high ceiling, low floor.

SlothB77: what were last year's stats for Dice-K?

sushi roll over Godzilla, if I read my Japanese correctly.

Sure, 125-37.
And then 3-4 in the playoffs after they get swept by the Tigers in the ALCS.

HulkHands: Why are three teams drooling over Clemens, then?

Clemens and Maddux are the best pitchers of their generation. Schilling is merely Very Good, and has shown signs of injury, and he's not planning to take a half-season load like Clemens.

I mean, Jamie Moyer (44) is still effective enough to hold down a rotation spot on most teams. Nolan Ryan was great at 44 and good at 45. But you can't look at most 40+ pitchers and say the same, especially over the course of a full season.

Minnesota in first place in the central? By a lot?

You dont win with:

Rondell White
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Luis Castillo
Jason Tyner
and a rotation that has Carlos Silva and 3 second year pitchers.....

Blue Jays with a .1% chance of making the playoffs. Give them a little more than that, sheesh...at least .5%. And I highly doubt the red sox are going to finish with a 125-37 record. They'll be lucky to break 110 wins, even with Dice-K.

No, how are they gonna win without Trot?

Red Sox fans, please contact me.

I would like to take the under on all of those predictions.

I believe it! The Sox are already 50-3 in my MLB 2K7 franchise!

/Traded Wakefield & Delcarmen for Kazmir
//Traded JD Drew & Henske for Jason Bay & future considerations as in, I'll consider not f'ing over the Pirates with any more trades they are to stupid to disagree with

GimpyNip
/Traded Wakefield & Delcarmen for Kazmir

BLASPHEMY!

/besides, if they tried to trade wake, he'd just retire.

chimp_ninja: Good guy to have on your team, but not exactly the safest bet to start the "ZOMG! 125-37!" bus just yet. After him, you have Beckett (?????), Wakefield (also 40, unimpressive last year, only 140 IP), and the Papelbon/Lester duo where you have clear talent but not much experience.

I don't think Lester is going to be in the starting rotation anytime soon.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon are going to be in the 5 man rotation.

if you look a little closer, you can see that anybody is free to "boost" each team's results.

POe

Dude, it is "video Wake" not real Wake. I pitched 3 games with him and every one of them turned into one of those occasional nightmare games that Wake has in real life. He went 1-2, he had to go...besides, pitching the knuckle in that game isn't very fun.

Drew for Bay would be a ridiculously good trade IRL, hell trade them Crisp & Drew for Bay...wait, isn't Drew's contract 3x the Pirates payroll? Regardless, Bay would be a great bat for the Sox whenever Manny bolts.

"They'll be lucky to break 110 wins, even with Dice-K."

Any team is lucky to break 110 wins, ESPECIALLY if their "ace" is an unknown commodity from across the ocean. See if their rotation can stay healthy for a season before you crown them. I'd say it's more likely that they'll be lucky if JD Drew plays 110 games.

Red Sox at the top of the AL East ? Riiiiiiight.


/you know who sits a top that perch every year
//|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
///pinstripes, biatches

Yeah, the Yankees are gonna win only seventy-five games, sure morons.
I don't care if the whole pitching staff learns how to throw the gyroball, after Papelbaun they don't have one good pitcher... Curt is a day late and a shilling short, Beckett is a NL pitcher, and "Andrew" Dice-K has as many Major League strike-outs as I do. You can't name two guys in that bullpen, and after the perenial numbers put up by Manny-Ortiz-Tek there's nobody in that line-up.

REAL AL EAST STANDINGS this year...
New York
Toronto
Boston
Tampa
Baltimore

\b- b- b- but... JD Drew?!?

The Red Sox will win 125 games, and some nitwit will still call in to WEEI and biatch about why they didn't win 130.

Kid Mojo

Guy, wish that Dice K is going to suck all you want, but you don't just win MVP of the WBC by being a loser. Thus far every report (and every game I've seen on NESN) of the guy pitch has been glowing. He has a had a shakey inning or two but when this cat gets rolling he is fantastic. His inital problems have been due in his first game to throwing a high change up which you can't do in the majors or even against BC (apparently!). In his second game he was experimenting abit and got shelled. Since he has not only been breaking out 6 pitches but he has been using them with great command. The reason the guy can throw 300 pitches is because he isn't "Americanized" and doesn't try and whip fastballs until his arm dies. I imagine you wouldn't know this because you are biased against the guy, have probably only watched a few highlights of him pitch and mostly you enjoying talking out of your ass. Every single one of your points was unsubstantiated & weak...not just regarding Dice K but the whole rotation.

But hey, who knows until April.

When the 2001 Seattle Mariners went 116-46, I said to myself, "Wow! What an unbelievable Summer! I'm sure I won't see that again in my lifetime."

I guess I was wrong.

It looks like their simulation algorithm is exaggerating wins for the good teams and losses for the bad teams. They need to make some corrections about the extremes.

I do, however, appreciate the Rays all the way up there in fourth place.

Devil Rays FTW
It looks like their simulation algorithm is exaggerating wins for the good teams and losses for the bad teams. They need to make some corrections about the extremes.

from the site's FAQ:
3. Can I influence my team's performance?

Yes! The simulation uses team stats to determine the expected number of runs each team will score every game. However, we give you the opportunity to increase your team's chances to win by allowing you to boost its offensive or defensive performance for any given game.

Never believe any sports simulation that places a team's chance of winning their division at 100% (Red Sox). And a second team's chance of taking THEIR division at 99.8% (Mets). And a third team's chance of taking THEIR division at 99.5% (Dodgers). And a team's chance of taking the WILD CARD spot at 89.2% (Braves).

Seriously, what monkey ran this.

Gosling
Never believe any sports simulation that places a team's chance of winning their division at 100% (Red Sox). And a second team's chance of taking THEIR division at 99.8% (Mets). And a third team's chance of taking THEIR division at 99.5% (Dodgers). And a team's chance of taking the WILD CARD spot at 89.2% (Braves).

with a big enough divisional lead and RS/RA differential far enough into any season (real or simulated), those aren't unreasonable projections.

keep in mind that those figures aren't predictions heading into game 1; they're based on a simlulated season that is up to game 120.

They way they simulated runs scored must have a very low error term, so a good team would always beat a bad team, etc. This also explains why division winners have such high chance to win theirs (as gosling pointed out).

..and what kind of simulation lets people play favorites?

This is total garbage. Im off to write a simulation where im gonna base the probability to win games is based entirely off the team's mascot's genetic closeness to sharks.

Robsul

I don't understand why they decided to move him to a starter other than the fact he'd probably be very good in that roll, however great closers (which he is) are gold. I am concerned about Lester being ready for the #5 spot. This move does strengthen the team every day but leaves a hole...maybe they plan on seeing how Lester days and if he isn't ready hope that they can coax Clemens to signing...only to have him sign with Houston again.

GimpyNip
Guy, wish that Dice K is going to suck all you want, but you don't just win MVP of the WBC by being a loser. Thus far every report (and every game I've seen on NESN) of the guy pitch has been glowing. He has a had a shakey inning or two but when this cat gets rolling he is fantastic.... blah blah blah...

Look, is he going to suck? No, he'll be a decent pitcher. But he's not a great pitcher, and even if he is it's not happening this year.

Do you know why he has so many complete games? Because he only pitched once every seven days in Japan. I'm not the one biased, you obviously are. I haven't watched him pitch, not even highlights it's spring training. Jeff Karstens has better numbers than him. Who the fark cares about spring training results.

Go back to watching NESN and eating chowdah.

Schilling is still the Red Sox's first starter. He'll win at least fifteen games. Not bad at all.

Kid Mojo

Well at least you admit that your entire argument is based on no evidence whatsoever. So, I guess that is a start.

I don't eat chowdah, how an asian could not like fish is rare, but hey, so is an asian with a big dick!

/do people think the chowdah thing is really an insult?
//do you name call people from Maine by telling them to go eat a lobster? Or a Vermonter to go eat some syrup?
///Lame indeed

s1 Schilling
s2 Beckett
s3 Matsuzaka
s4 Wakefield
s5 Tavares, Snyder, some rookie, a head of lettuce...whatever

The Yankees would gladly trade their rotation for the Red Sox rotation. In a heartbeat.

The way I see it, the Yankees have three clear advantages over the Red Sox:

1) Leadoff hitter. Not even close
2) Closer. Although, now that Papelbon is the closer again, I'm happy as a pig in shiat.
3) shortstop

Let's play ball already

As a Yankees fan, I'm just as scared of Varitek as Manny (Ortiz obviously more, and #33 was hurt last year that's why his numbers sucked) that goes for Trot Nixon too (in Seattle now) and it's definitly NOT J.D. Drew or Mike Lowell.

Having "no evidence" to support my argument is better than using spring training statistics. Especially against the Pirate's minor leaguers.

In Japan last year, he was 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA. 186 IP 200 K, in 25 games. The year before he had more Ks, more IPs, but was 14-13. His full stats are at: http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=matsuzaka

He can be decent pitcher. But SI, ESPN, NESN, they all want to make him out to be the best pitcher in the universe. Can he please make ONE FARKING START before we give the Red Sox 125 wins?

Beckett could very well calm down this year and put in a decent season. And I wouldn't discount Wakefield...he often has more than ten wins.

/also often has 7+ losses, it's a tough break being a knuckler.

robsul82: And they don't have a fifth starter.

Yes they do, if Jon Lester has anything to say about it.