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(Some Guy)   Researchers suggest that the recent increase in Hurricane strength has less to do with global warming and more to do with more accurate modern methods of measuring storm strength   (floridatoday.com) divider line 218
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3454 clicks; posted to Main » on 28 Jul 2006 at 3:54 PM (8 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2006-07-28 04:13:04 PM
It makes sense to me. It used to be that we didn't know about hurricanes until they hit. So, if a hurricane never hit inhabited land or was downgraded before it was noticed, then it wasn't counted. Last year, I kept on hearing the stat that this was the most hurricanes since 1933. No, it was the most hurricanes recorded since 1933. How long have we have complete global coverage with weather satelites that could measure hurricanes? 1960s? 1970s? It seems like a short time to make all these alarming statements about hurricanes.
 
2006-07-28 04:13:04 PM
Shostie: Actually, no. Having grown up on the coast of MS, I understand that nature does what it does regardless of what they say on the Weather Channel. Also, if Jim Cantore shows up in your city to report on a possible hurricane, run.


Amen.
 
2006-07-28 04:13:36 PM
The protestors were demanding the resignation of the head of NOAA because he had the audacity to suggest that this natural cycle was in place, and deny that "global warming" was behind an increase in hurricane activity.


I'd be fine with that point of view if you were willing to admit the possibility that it's not a natural cycle.

There can be no productive result in the two sides facing off the way they are now.

Accept that it might be artifically created, or it might be a natural cycle. Then we can get somewhere with research.

'Til then, the whole pursuit of the answer is one big fark thread. And we all know how useful those a+++===carrierlost===+++
 
2006-07-28 04:13:39 PM
So much hate. Give me a break and tell your women to be patient. It won't be long before my new calculations are completed!
 
2006-07-28 04:13:44 PM
Weather forecasters can't predict what hole a turd will fall from much less how many hurricanes we will have. Come on people, save that CO2 level and stop BREATHING!!!
 
2006-07-28 04:14:25 PM
mongbiohazard

the thing i find most bizarre is the argument over global warming itself. earth was in an ice age not too long ago (on a geological time scale). how did we ever get out of an ice age? man was industrialized when the polar ice caps receded to their positions currently. the earth warmed up somehow??
 
2006-07-28 04:14:46 PM
Global warming wackos, everyone knows there is no such thing as pollution. They just want to take everyone's right to drive an SUV away because they are to stupid and poor to afford one.
 
2006-07-28 04:15:18 PM
Dr Streisand knows best:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash4bar.htm


/do they allow motor trolling in this lake?
 
2006-07-28 04:16:15 PM
Heard about the study yesterday on NPR. The story mentioned tells half the story: There's no measureable increase in Pacific storm strength. Still, when one goes back and measures the storms in the Atlantic using modern methods, there are more strong storms. It's just a minor inconvenience that despite the fact that the storm strength was measured incorrectly earlier, there are 50% more of them. It's the cigarette company offense - find a point that could be interpreted to favor your argument then blow it completely out of proportion until it completely overshadows all the arguments and facts that don't support your position. BTW, the Church rescinded its excommunication of Gallileo about 400 years too late, proving their learning capacity is just a bit better than than the Chimperor's.
 
2006-07-28 04:17:28 PM
Shostie: Actually, no. Having grown up on the coast of MS, I understand that nature does what it does regardless of what they say on the Weather Channel. Also, if Jim Cantore shows up in your city to report on a possible hurricane, run.

Hahah. See that's why Charleston has been lucky since '89. We always get Mike Seidel. Cantore always goes to Wilmington.
 
2006-07-28 04:17:32 PM
infantry

the thing i find most bizarre is the argument over global warming itself. earth was in an ice age not too long ago (on a geological time scale). how did we ever get out of an ice age? man was industrialized when the polar ice caps receded to their positions currently. the earth warmed up somehow??

The obvious answer is cavemen made a quantum leap in their ability to predict the weather, thus warming the earth in the process.

That technology was lost for thousands of years, only to be rediscovered in the past decade.
 
2006-07-28 04:18:07 PM
A few neutral FACTS for the flames that are sure to come.

1. We can measure strength better now. We know exactly how big they are, fly planes into them to take measurements, etc. 100 years ago someone just looked and said, "yep, this one is HUGE."
2. We have a better count now thanks to satellite photos.
3. Hurricane frequency are on a natural cycle

This doesn't change the global warming argument, just some things to keep in mind.
 
2006-07-28 04:18:35 PM
Andric: Hahah. See that's why Charleston has been lucky since '89. We always get Mike Seidel. Cantore always goes to Wilmington.

Yeah. The bastard showed up in Biloxi before Katrina hit, at which point we knew we were farked.
 
2006-07-28 04:19:11 PM
Cantore, in Biloxi, that is.
 
2006-07-28 04:19:36 PM
In my eyes, people who blame hurricane Katrina directly on global warming are just as bad as people who say that global warming isn't happening at all.

There's little consensus in the meteorological community about whether global warming affects the number and/or strength of tropical cyclones. People with political agendas are the ones who paint the issue as "decided".

Thank you.
 
2006-07-28 04:19:46 PM
Yup, yet another reason to ignore global warming. The ice caps are just melting because we're looking at them too.
 
2006-07-28 04:19:50 PM
Infantry, the earth was warmer in the middle ages then it is today. It reached something called a temperature optimum that saw a growth in the abundance of plant and animal life. This led to a relatively prosperous time.
 
2006-07-28 04:19:53 PM
Am I too late for the flamewar?


/always late gettin' to these things
//need to find a meaningless graphic
///that'll show 'em!
 
2006-07-28 04:20:27 PM
This month's Natl. Geo. would beg to differ!
 
2006-07-28 04:22:11 PM
img507.imageshack.us
 
2006-07-28 04:22:40 PM
Shrugging Atlas

weather prediction is the culmination of millions of years of humand evolution and is the epitome of man's technical prowess.



no doubt it has been hotter and cooler in different periods of time. man just has to adapt with it. if man is still around in 100,000 years and the earth starts to cool off again, whatever shall we do?
 
2006-07-28 04:23:04 PM
diplomaticimmunity

Yup, yet another reason to ignore global warming. The ice caps are just melting because we're looking at them too.


OK. Relax. Saying "Frequency/strength of tropical cyclones is not affected with global warming" is not the same as saying "there's no such thing as global warming".
 
2006-07-28 04:23:30 PM
2 newsweek articles and everyone is a PhD in geology and climatology.

OH NO THE ICE CAPS ARE MELTING! THIS MEANS GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL! 1:1 correlation!! R-squared= 98.9!!
 
2006-07-28 04:23:35 PM
the second part of that was supposed to go to Natefil
 
2006-07-28 04:24:15 PM
Natefil

the link you posted is to the "petition project". It was discredited long ago because it uses old data, is full of errors, and listed non-scientists in it's petition (though it claimed that over 25,000 accredited scientists signed it).
 
2006-07-28 04:24:16 PM
Infantry, look up the statistics, the earth has been cooling for the last 8 years.
 
2006-07-28 04:24:21 PM
No, I'm pretty sure it's because of global warming. It was on the news. Global warming happens when oil companies charge too much for gas.
 
2006-07-28 04:24:24 PM
Last Year

June 9, Tropical Storm Arlene
June 28, Tropical Storm Bret
July 4, Hurricane Cindy
July 5, Hurricane Dennis
July 11, Hurricane Emily
July 18, Tropical Storm Franklin
July 24, Tropical Storm Gert

This Year

July 1 Tropical Storm Alberto


OMG...GLOBAL COOLING...
 
2006-07-28 04:24:42 PM
And we're still only working w/ less than 100 years of data on the subject.
And in those 100 years, only the last 15-20 have any accuracy. So in the grand scheme of things they are still just guessing on the whole topic and passing it off as "fact" and scientific proof.

/sensationalism sells
//even scientists need publicity to get published.
///don't believe everything you read.
/slashy love!
 
2006-07-28 04:25:10 PM
KevinOfOz: Last year, I kept on hearing the stat that this was the most hurricanes since 1933. No, it was the most hurricanes recorded since 1933. How long have we have complete global coverage with weather satelites that could measure hurricanes? 1960s? 1970s? It seems like a short time to make all these alarming statements about hurricanes.


This is what I tell people in the Global Warming threads. You can make-up shiat anyway you want because yeah - no one knew what the fark was going on until very very recently. No one even knew what a hurricane looked like until 1966 (I believe that's the year) when sattellite images were available.
 
2006-07-28 04:25:13 PM
Aheitman:
"Global Warming is a farce."

What if you're wrong kimosabe?

Whatever, believe what you want to believe. Either way, personally I could go for some cleaner air. How about you?
 
2006-07-28 04:25:34 PM
nah, it's the level playing field of the new-NHL; having good skaters helps as well

/didn't RTFA
 
2006-07-28 04:25:49 PM
uggh..... that should read "...affected by global warming..."
 
2006-07-28 04:26:17 PM
i69.photobucket.com

i69.photobucket.com

i69.photobucket.com

i69.photobucket.com
 
2006-07-28 04:26:19 PM
YOUR PLANETS IMMUNE SYSTEM IS TRYING TO GET RID OF YOU!
 
2006-07-28 04:26:25 PM
Global Warming, like the Internet, was invented by Al Gore. With these tools, Gore plans to destroy the Earth. The NSA recently captured this telephone conversation between Hillary and Bill Clinton:

Hillary: Gore? But he's a robot. Without you, what could he do?

Bill: There's no limit to what he could do. He could destroy the Earth.

BE AFRAID. BE VERY AFRAID.
 
2006-07-28 04:26:35 PM
stvdallas
OMG...GLOBAL COOLING...

ZOMFG, TEH DAY AFTOR TUMMOROW????
 
2006-07-28 04:26:37 PM
infantry: the thing i find most bizarre is the argument over global warming itself. earth was in an ice age not too long ago (on a geological time scale). how did we ever get out of an ice age? man was industrialized when the polar ice caps receded to their positions currently. the earth warmed up somehow??

You're cutting out a lot of important data points. The earth was warmer during the Medieval Warm Period (back when the Vikings were cultivating grapes in Newfoundland). Then we had the Little Ice Age lasting until about 1850. A bit of a warming phase for about a century, followed by a cooling trend from the 40s to 1970, and a bit of a warming trend from 1970 to today. It's not like the temperature trend has been all one way for a while.
 
2006-07-28 04:27:14 PM
EmpiresDoFall: Whatever, believe what you want to believe. Either way, personally I could go for some cleaner air. How about you?


Nice answer. I like that.
 
2006-07-28 04:27:24 PM
stvdallas: This Year

July 1 Tropical Storm Alberto


Don't forget TS Beryl.
 
2006-07-28 04:27:43 PM
Come on, everybody knows that the increase in hurricane power is directly linked to meerkat populations. You see, the meerkat population has been on a decline in recent years, causing the price of RC Cola to skyrocket. This results in more consumers forgoing soda altogether, and spending more money on battery operated singing fish. The audio chips in the battery operated fish (especially the ones that sing "Proud Mary") emit a gas called "Pfnorcatrazone." This gas escapes into the atmosphere, and is inhaled by the rare Gort Gulls of the Archepelago. The gulls, allergic to this gas, begin to explode in mid-air, which causes a concussive air blast. This air blast causes hurricanes, which are intensified by the number of really bad "It was so hot in Manhattan, today..." jokes David Letterman insists on telling during his monologue.

And that is where babies come from.
 
2006-07-28 04:28:09 PM
Ah! The old correlation does not equal causation defense.

I don't buy it.

www.phatcom.net
 
2006-07-28 04:28:16 PM
Empires
Move to Wisconsin....

/If Im wrong, who cares we go to jail, peacefully, quietly
//But if Im right....
 
2006-07-28 04:28:53 PM
EmpiresDoFall

Wanting clean air is fine, but don't lie to the people and say that they shouldn't pollute because it will kill us all.

We need to look at the evidence, right now the evidence, overwhelmingly, is showing that there is no such thing as human induced global warming.
 
2006-07-28 04:29:01 PM
Helios1182: Hurricane frequency are on a natural cycle


That's AMO (pops) (The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation). NOAA liked that for a while and is backing off it a bit. But yeah - that's pretty much what most people agree is the case.
 
2006-07-28 04:29:39 PM
It's just Chuck Norris practicing roundhouse kicking outside again.
 
2006-07-28 04:29:43 PM
Anyone been to Glacier National Park lately?
\Look it up, learn about it, hell go see it cause it aint gonna be there for long!
 
2006-07-28 04:29:59 PM
The answer to global warming is peak oil.
 
2006-07-28 04:30:12 PM
Natefil

i was trying to convey that the earth goes in cycles, and this period of cooling or warming everyone says we are in probably is natural.

Sloth_DC

i was speaking of massive temperature change. like i said, i have no doubt that the earth goes in cycles (seriously)
 
2006-07-28 04:30:27 PM
2006-07-28 04:09:30 PM mongbiohazard


Meh. The scientists who study hurricanes keep telling us that there is a natural cycle of hurricane activity and that we're in an upswing of that approximately 30 year cycle. I believe them.

Unfortunately the climate "debate" has devolved past the point of debate, and those scientists will soon enough be cowed into submission. There was a demonstration here in DC (in Silver Springs,MD to be precise) a month or two ago outside the offices of NOAA. The protestors were demanding the resignation of the head of NOAA because he had the audacity to suggest that this natural cycle was in place, and deny that "global warming" was behind an increase in hurricane activity.

How long will they be able to stick to their science guns before political forces cow them into submission and force them to change their *science* to match the *political* view? A few years at best is my guess.

Of course, people forcing scientists to change their conclusions to fit the political desires of the day is nothing new. It's just that this time it's environmentalists instead of the church. New century, new religioin, same dance. I wonder who the modern era's Gallileo will be?


I am a scientist who has published many peer-reviewed papers, and what you are saying is completely, factually, and incontrovertibly TRUE (and bears repeating).

Science gets politicized and scientists themselves will shut out (and refuse to examine or comprehend) evidence that contradicts there assertions because they are just as emotionally attached to their work as any other human being. They will even suppress funding and conduct vicious attacks where politics are involved. The fuzzier the science, the more vitriolic the debate.

My favorite example is prions (look it up on Wikipedia). Prusiner was ridiculed and insulted before finally getting the Nobel Prize in 1997
 
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