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(PBS)   Why Google will leave Microsoft in the dust   (pbs.org ) divider line
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27609 clicks; posted to Main » on 18 Nov 2005 at 6:11 PM (10 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2005-11-18 07:05:50 PM  
If I had HTML privs, I'd be Photoshopping a hybrid of Cringely and Ric Romero likethat.

His success at telling the history of Silicon Valley doesn't qualify him to guess its future any more than Dvorak. Together, they'd make a worse TV show than "At The Movies With Siskel & Ebert."

Oh Christ, did I just say that aloud? G4/TechTV, don't read this.
 
2005-11-18 07:07:23 PM  
Apple left Microsoft in the dust about 3 years ago

Except for the fact that Apple is teh ghey.
 
2005-11-18 07:08:35 PM  
You mean, trading one that's proven to be evil, with one that hasn't (yet).
 
2005-11-18 07:11:20 PM  
Kevin143
Google will leave Microsoft in the dust because they will create AI in the next five years. The real point of Google Books is just to give their statistical AI enough information to index.
 
That reminds me of what they supposedly did with a site called 'Forum 2000' several years back. Story was they set up a neural net and fed it tons of books, usenet, etc. and you could ask it questions and the AI would reply in different personas. They had Ayn Rand, Nietzsche, Milkman Dan, and a ton of other personalities that would answer the questions. It seemed legit. Even if it wasn't real, it was pretty funny stuff. I was sad when it shut down.
 
A fellow by the name of Andrej Bauer helped start it and there's a page that describes how it works here. Only thing is my brain wasn't designed for that sort of stuff, otherwise I'd summarize.
 
2005-11-18 07:11:56 PM  
Cringely fails at life.
 
2005-11-18 07:15:31 PM  
g-spank:

Apple left Microsoft in the dust about 3 years ago, and Microsoft will never catch up. Most people are so ingrained in their own idealogical belief systems though that they are late to the party, but make no mistake about it, it's happening. The truth is slowly getting out there.


Apple is seriously hampered by hard headed tradition. When OSX came out, I was going to buy one of their laptops but had to ditch the idea because they only had one button on the touchpad and that won't fly with the Unix apps I use. The only reason they do that is because they wanted to keep things simply back in 1984 when the first Mac came out. They need to get a clue that people have become more computer literate in the last twenty years. They also need to ditch the idea that hardware and software must come as a package deal and sell their OS by itself for consumer PC hardware.
 
2005-11-18 07:17:06 PM  
The big difference between Google and Microsoft to me is that I don't pay a dime for Google's services (directly at least).

So if they want to take over the net in the manner described, good for them.
 
2005-11-18 07:18:16 PM  
Major Thomb: They also need to ditch the idea that hardware and software must come as a package deal and sell their OS by itself for consumer PC hardware.

They are going to...
 
2005-11-18 07:20:56 PM  
You'll be talking differently when for every function you want to do you have to watch an advertisement.

Open File
Advertisement
Switch to Bold
Advertisement
Spell Check
Advertisement based on the mispellllllled words
Ads based on the content of your document strolling along the bottom of the screen

:)

Drink Pepsi
 
2005-11-18 07:21:00 PM  
Except for the fact that Apple is teh ghey.

Better "ghey" than retarded.
 
2005-11-18 07:27:29 PM  
Where am I, slashdot?
 
2005-11-18 07:27:59 PM  
haineux

Ahh see Apple is both ghey and retarded. Actually, I take that back. Apple are masters of cynical marketing; Apple users are retarded.
 
2005-11-18 07:28:03 PM  
Kevin143 and farfigneugan

I always wondered if anyone else knew that story.

Google is awesome in their business and I have no doubt they will go very far and will continue to do so for a while but any one company being called good or evil is stupid, generally.
 
2005-11-18 07:37:03 PM  
Picolo:

Google has yet to force me to watch an ad. Yes, they are there, but I can easily ignore them. I have never seen one of their ads in any of the forms you've given.
 
2005-11-18 07:48:29 PM  
Sometimes Cringely is insightful. Other times he's just a toonhead. Mostly he's a toonhead and this time is no exception.
 
2005-11-18 07:53:15 PM  
i have a policy

stop reading any article after the first typo

...yet still offer soemthing different for every viewer if they want it.

no spell check over at pbs?
 
2005-11-18 07:57:23 PM  
red_two

If you're using a Windows OS and/or Internet Explorer, your privacy is already "bye bye." The Windows kernel keeps logs of virtually everything you do -- both online and within your local machine. You won't be finding the files unless you know their directory locations and access them from DOS proper.

Tinfoil hat much? The only logging on by default are system events and you can turn that off if you want. There is no master "boogey-man" log file of every doc you open or every website you go to that gets transmitted to the mothership daily. Everything that Windows logs from recent docs to URL history is completely visible to the end user and able to be cleared and/or turned off. Aslo, "DOS proper"? You do realize that there has been no such thing as "DOS" since Windows 2000 right? You are just another anti-MS fear monger trying to push Linux FUD.
 
2005-11-18 07:59:58 PM  
That third grade grammar teacher must have been specialy hard on you!

"I have a policy

stop reading any article after the first typo"
 
2005-11-18 08:03:43 PM  
g-spank

Huh? Do you think Apple is going to magically go from their under 10% market share to be the dominant OS/system in the next decade? You are more deluded than the Linux fanatics. Apple makes good products, but the mindshare MS has and the barrier to entry (not counting the Mini because it's a starter machine) is higher than a comparable machine. Not to mention that until Mac has a decent market share software will usually be more expensive on OSX. All my professional apps cost 20-40% more for the Mac versions. Mac might increase it's market share a bit more, but it's never going to be on par with MS. At least not in any near term scenario I could ever see.
 
2005-11-18 08:05:11 PM  
Google will leave Microsoft in the dust because they will create AI in the next five years. The real point of Google Books is just to give their statistical AI enough information to index.

Thank goodness. That is a much better idea than creating AI from all the indexed porn.
 
2005-11-18 08:07:28 PM  
Tekdude

They are going to...

Umm, no they aren't. Apple makes a lot of money on hardware and the reason that so many talk about the ease of use with Macs is because Apple has absolute control of the hardware. Just because they are going Intel doesn't mean they are going to start selling stand alone copies of OSX. Apple has already said they won't.
 
2005-11-18 08:07:42 PM  
I don't see how anyone could retire early from Google stock... started at $85, now is at $400. Yes, that is a nice increase. But, unless you had $20K to spend on the stock, that would only be worth about $100K. Two years or so income. And I doubt anyone that sits on fark all day has $20K to spend on stock, maybe 5K. Congratulations, you now have $20,000. Buy a new car, yes. Retire early, no. If you did have $100,000 sitting around to turn into half a mil, newsflash - you were rich already. Google stock didn't make the difference.
2 cents
 
2005-11-18 08:15:46 PM  
"2005-11-18 06:34:37 PM Kinan

Please pardon my stupidity.
Can someone tell me how Google makes money?
What they provide users with is free searches.
Is the content of these searches of *that* much interest to any group thats willing to Pay for it?

Readying flame suit.."

The same way NBC makes money. I mean, it's free to everybody who watches it.
 
2005-11-18 08:17:18 PM  
Slashdot has a better article about GMail exploits.
 
2005-11-18 08:19:04 PM  
No wonder they have such a nice cafeteria at Google. They might have to live in there after they barricade themselves in like N.O.R.A.D. and take over the world ahhh!
 
2005-11-18 08:20:49 PM  
Kevin143

Google will leave Microsoft in the dust because they will create AI in the next five years. The real point of Google Books is just to give their statistical AI enough information to index.


That my friend is sadly not possible because google search engine only searches text. So, =, +,-, /,(,{s etc and ,;!#s will get lost. So, it will never learn math and proper grammer and become only good as an english lit professor.

[image from farkimages.com too old to be available]
 
2005-11-18 08:25:46 PM  
User Not Found:

How many times has the stock split, though? If I bought a hundred shares at $85, and it splits three times between now and then, I've now got 400 shares... at $400... = $160,000 for that $8000 investment.
 
2005-11-18 08:28:19 PM  
no splits in goog....
 
2005-11-18 08:34:32 PM  
Tekdude: This is appropriate: Epic 2015 (POPS)

I await the Google Grid... EPIC can wait :P
 
2005-11-18 08:37:51 PM  
Anybody that google is actually run by Brainiac? The whole "index the world" think kind of creeps me out. But I love it.
 
2005-11-18 08:39:05 PM  
Yeah I know it's hip to hate MS and I wouldn't say they've never pissed me off, but there's that pesky making products that people pay money for thing that MS has but Google lacks. Good search engines come and go, I use Google but if they charged me even a penny for the service I'd hop over to another search engine in a heartbeat. My own prediction is that Google's stock will continue to bubble for a while, then come crashing down to sane levels when people figure out the company is just not worth such an obscene amount.
 
2005-11-18 09:03:52 PM  
Google gives you what you ask for.

Microsoft gives you what it wants to.
 
2005-11-18 09:04:22 PM  
Zeromus-X

When a company undertakes a share split, the post-split price is equal to the pre-split price/X, where X is the number of shares issued for every pre-existing share. Share splits do not magically double the market value of the company.
 
2005-11-18 09:07:05 PM  
Zeromus-X:

User Not Found:

How many times has the stock split, though? If I bought a hundred shares at $85, and it splits three times between now and then, I've now got 400 shares... at $400... = $160,000 for that $8000 investment.


The answer to that is zero splits.
 
2005-11-18 09:08:12 PM  
I'm not a huge fan of Cringely myself, but he does have some valid points, especially if he's correct about the number of Google datacenters and the plans to increase them. GMail is the perfect example of what he's talking about, except on a smaller scale. It's a continuously growing, fast, easily accessible source of information, in this case, email. GMail could conceivably be a scale model test of the larger Google goal: free, easily accessible information. Besides, most of this information is already accessible if it's in electronic form. The only difference between our current access to this information and Google's stated goal is that right now we have to pay for it. You can run a license plate on any car in the the US for $20. You can pay a PI to run a credit check on your next door neighbor. If you've published it, either in print or on the web, anyone with a Lexis-Nexis account can search it. The only difference between Google and anybody else is how they make the information available.
 
2005-11-18 09:16:27 PM  
In the IS village of the damned:

Microsoft is like a sinister village idiot that does one essential job no one else can do quite as well: it's a drooling, moronic evil that still manages to clean out the septic tanks of the IS world while crapping its pants and torturing kittens. No one likes him, but everyone has to keep him around.

Google is like a half-baked genius kid who came up with one amazing invention, and then follows you around all day trying to get you to give him money for it. Yes, everyone needs his service, but no one wants to deal with him sneaking into their houses after dark to put up advertisements in their living rooms.

Apple is the guy who sits in the bar day after day, claiming he's smarter than everyone else, but is simply ignored since people give a crap and just want to get their jobs done. At night, he steals out to the graveyard to weep over the graves of AmigaOS and Xerox Parc.

IBM is the religious cult that's built a compound outside the town. They're creepy, they all walk in step and have a whole slew of solutions in search of problems. On cold nights when the winds blow just the right direction, you can hear their endless chants of 'Websphere, websphere, websphere!'
 
2005-11-18 09:18:19 PM  
nuclear_asshat writes:

Besides, GOOG is not even the best search engine any longer. Hasn't been for awhile. Just the best brand name.

Tell us about your better search engine, nuclear_asshat!
 
2005-11-18 09:21:41 PM  
i know! i'll move a south pacific island, hook up an open source server with a file system covered with...um...Pontiflex. lets see Google get me then.

OSKJJ JGTMW
 
2005-11-18 09:21:42 PM  
Iluvfark2

All my professional apps cost 20-40% more for the Mac versions.

What the heck apps are you buying most of them cost the same on my end. CS2 for Mac and PC is still a rip off at $1300 but with a student discount a tolerable but still enraging $300
 
2005-11-18 09:27:12 PM  
In all seriousness, Google is a giant among giants, and growing faster than any of them. I am in awe of their insight and savvy. God damn, I wish I was sitting on their board of directors. Not that I would contribute anything brilliant, but I'd surely be gettin' paid just to show up for meetings!
 
2005-11-18 09:28:09 PM  
These are the guys who are guna beat Microsoft?

[image from img259.imageshack.us too old to be available]
Photo of Google Founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin
 
2005-11-18 09:43:33 PM  
Rubbish.
 
2005-11-18 09:48:37 PM  
what is the alternative to google ?
 
2005-11-18 09:53:11 PM  
nuclear_asshat

For those lining up to suck Google's dick, but hate MSFT, you have just traded one master for another...


Hmmmm. Let's see: Microsoft tries to monopolize the OS market, the browser market, and any other market it can buy out, provides shiatty products with more patches than a quilt used for shotgun target practice and makes sure everything, but everything, is paid for in triplicate and remains proprietary; Google provides a decent product FOR FREE TO ME, charging only advertisers, and doing its best to make sure the service is good and gets better, so as to attract more eyeballs so it can charge advertisers more, and doing most of it in open-source. Yes, that certainly sounds like trading one master for another, all right. I don't really hate MSFT, either, but if Google had a dick, I would seriously think about getting in line.

As for this "privacy" thing, it is, IMHO, highly overrated. If you are so concerned about your privacy that you only appear in public wearing a mask, then you are either a Mexican Wrestler or in serious need of psychological intervention.

/LOL at myself for revealing so much.
 
2005-11-18 09:54:34 PM  
datafox I always wondered if anyone else knew that story.

Me too...
 
2005-11-18 10:14:25 PM  
2005-11-18 09:53:11 PM oldebayer

Hmmmm. Let's see: Microsoft tries to monopolize the OS market, the browser market, and any other market it can buy out,


Since when does majority market share define monopoly? Apple has the majority of the portable mp3 player market share, and I don't see anybody crying monopoly.

All of the anti-competitive lawsuits have been ridiculously overblown by the media as well. It seems the opposition would like an operating system that does no more than show you a C: prompt on boot. The majority of users are too stupid to go FIND applications to install to do day to day tasks like browse the web, listen to music, etc. That leaves two options, 1: bundle EVERY CONCEIVABLE APP a user could ever want. This will confuse the hell out of most users, as you'd end up having to choose between fifty different apps every time you just want to play an mp3. Option 2: bundle NOTHING with the operating system, and let users buy/download what they want. Again, there are too many idiots out there who would just stare at their blank screen and drool on themselves.

There has to be a balance between these two extremes, and I think that's what we have right now. MS is not stopping you from downloading, buying, or running the web browser, media player, etc of your choice. Windows, as it stands now, provides a usable solution right out of the box for the average user. The more advanced users are allowed to customize as they wish, the below-average users will still just sit there drooling.

Lastly (I know I'm writing a novel here), this is not the first, nor will it be the last, time that the demise of Microsoft is predicted. The most recent was during the .com boom of the late 90's/early 00's. Java had just hit the big time and MS had nothing to compete with it at the time. Well, it's now 2005, and .NET has 70% of the market in the fortune 100.

The reason (I lied about the previous paragraph being my last) that Microsoft will continue to be a strong player in the industry is because of diversity. They are into everything from operating systems to office productivity apps to infrastructure/platforms (.NET) to development tools.

Alright... I've written enough for now. I have no problem when people pose legitimate criticism of a company, person, etc... but what annoys me no end is those who simply repeat what they've heard in the media with no research of their own. The same goes for politics... but that's another rant in and of itself.

/soapbox
 
2005-11-18 10:23:31 PM  
StokeyBob: Google gives you what you ask for. Microsoft gives you what it wants to.

Yep. Web browsing actually became fun after I dumped IE6 for Firefox. Since then I've heard alot about IE7. Where is it?

Microsoft appears to have become a slow moving dinosaur that is having trouble adapting to evolving technologies.

Adblock ROCKS!
 
2005-11-18 10:45:37 PM  
Google won't make a disk operating system,
they'll just make their own network os.

Maybe i'm just biased, but google to me is the one of most innovative things i've ever seen on the web.
 
2005-11-18 10:54:39 PM  
"The customer is always right." Well not hardly, but the paying customer is sometimes a little bit right. As a customer of Microsoft you enjoy a certain rather small amount of leverage. You are not paying Google anything; you are not their customer; Google is working for the advertisers, not for you. Just like teevee!
 
2005-11-19 12:03:06 AM  
wkiernan:
"The customer is always right." Well not hardly, but the paying customer is sometimes a little bit right. As a customer of Microsoft you enjoy a certain rather small amount of leverage. You are not paying Google anything; you are not their customer; Google is working for the advertisers, not for you. Just like teevee!

True. But if viewers/users don't like the content they tune out and advertizing revenue drops.

Just ask the execs. at NBC
 
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