145 kt wind measurement taken from the eastern eyewall...

Silva

Some links on the subject:
(sorry no time for html)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/2005-atlantic-trop-cyclones. html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2004/2004-atlantic-trop-cyclones. html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2004_atlantic_hurricane_map.gif

Cancun Radar:

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

Silva in short, the stronger a hurricane is, the higher rating/time period it accrues. The Cape Verde storms tend to have disgusting longevity and therefore even relatively weak ones can get large ratings. Because Wilma exploded rapidly and has been moving relatively slowly, she too will get a decent rating, although CV storms have life cycles that can be measured in weeks.

YMMV SPSFD

CV storms themselves are storms that typically start as waves forming over or West of the Cape Verde Island, become named fairly early, and begin a trek across the Atlantic where they typically engage in a nice, wide arc back to the NE Atlantic. They can take that arc mid-way through the Atlantic or further West, but that's the "signature" of a CV storm. I believe Wikipedia has an entry on them but am busy right now (hence my lack of posting).

So she has 167mph flight level winds, which we can extrapolate a 150mph surface level wind speed from.

So she has 167mph flight level winds, which we can extrapolate a 150mph surface level wind speed from.

Sorry!

So she has 167mph flight level winds, which we can extrapolate a 150mph surface level wind speed from, assholes.

/forgot my grammar

Max Mayfield is going to be on CNN in a little bit...

And I got beaten by several minutes: more reason to keep working - things are well in-hand here and will remain so even if I'm absent for the next 6 hours ;)

Cape Verde Islands should be plural in my post, btw. It's an island chain West of the northwestern African coast.

El_Bastard

I will be taking a few hour break here in a couple minutes, so maybe you SHOULD stay...

El_Bastard

So, what do you think of the latest NOGAPS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005102012&field=Sea+Level+P ressure&hour=Animation


And, what do you think of the latest Vortex Data Message? How 'bout that eyewall temperature gradient! 7 degrees C!

I love this new cliche! Unfortunately, it's difficult to find more than "from" or "with" to end a sentence with, assholes.

I wonder where chaka is at, assholes?

dstanley I'm not saying this because I'm inordinately stubborn, but I believe the models still have northward adjustment left in them. Landfall may yet end up between Venice, FL and Port Charlotte with an Indian River-Volusia exit.

By tomorrow evening, things should have developed further enough for me to know if A) I need to board my house, and 2) If I need to find somewhere to evacuate to, asshole.

*grin*

/Brevard County resident

Hollie Maea

Thanks, it all makes perfect sense now.

Is anyone else having issues with the appearance of Fark right now?

Silva: Is anyone else having issues with the appearance of Fark right now?


Yup, comes and goes for me.

lex didn't have a chance to catch up on anything, but seeing that output makes me think it's closer to a blend of your and my forecast... It definitely could verify too.

/still think it'll end up pushing north in a run or two though ;)

NP, I can't let the FHS have all the fun now can I ;-)

Still looks like its strengthening - Cozumel and Cancun are about to go through holy farkin' hell.

K, we are getting some heavy rain now here...maybe a ban?

New SOE for Florida, mandatory evacs for Collier County, FL.

Maimi Fl checking in...

Miami-Dade County trucks just came by and finally picked up the piles of debre on the side of the roads.

This stuff was left over from Katrina and Rita.

After re-reviewing the NOGAPS, I'm not quite sold on it making that big of a landfall in the Yucatan, nor on it crossing that close to Lake O...

/never view that at 1800x1350 on a 22" monitor...

CNN is confirming the northward turn - not that I care what CNN thinks...

finally picked up the piles of debre...

Where is this mythical Debre and her enormous piles, and where can we find her?

/Did you mean debris?
//jk, carry on

Okay, I am in Collier County - where did you find the mandatory evacuation?

FLA Chickie

Yup. That is just how huge this storm is - you are getting an outer feeder band.

FLA Chickie

Rainfall associated with her outflow - not a band. Feeder bands go into the storm, outflow goes away from, asshole ;)

/no, not you - just a chance to use the new potential cliche we're trying on, asshole

FLA Chickie it's getting hammered (loading slowly) but here's Collier County's EMC site:

http://collierem.org/ (pops)

State of Emergency:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/eoc_activations/Wilma05/Reports/2005-10-19% 20Rev%27d%20Wilma%20EO1.pdf

Mandatory Evac (per local news):

Collier County (Naples) Emergency Management (http://collierem.org/) is issuing mandatory evacuations for costal areas starting tomorrow at Noon. (For those of you in the area - everything W and S of US 41)

uforgotten

I was talking about this guy!

http://www.answers.com/topic/michel-debr

He was really stinking up the place!

dstanley: shiat.


Maintain your cool. Remember, even if this does nail us dead to rights, it will only, at the very most, be a 2 when it crosses. Think Charley.

Crotty and pals are standing around in EOC atm looking 'vigilant'. LOL! They don't know what's going on either.

Max Mayfield has mentioned Tampa as a point of impact.

lexslamman: Collier County (Naples) Emergency Management (http://collierem.org/) is issuing mandatory evacuations for costal areas starting tomorrow at Noon. (For those of you in the area - everything W and S of US 41)


Oh they did it.

Eye is clearing out on the satellite imagery - she is bombing.

Mayfield on CNN at 1645EST. I think that he will be announcing a new track and intensity forecast, and may tell us that the Yucatan landfall will be a grazing.

lexslamman: Mayfield on CNN at 1645EST. I think that he will be announcing a new track and intensity forecast, and may tell us that the Yucatan landfall will be a grazing.


He was just on our news - and yeah - that's pretty much what he said, although I must admit - he appears confused.

HA HA

Ninja storm poWns JOOOO

Told you told you

The people in Key West are dressed in festive clothing to put up shutters with. I am not kidding. They just showed a dude dressed up as Dorothy nailing up shutters, and another guy dressed in an astronaut outfit, with NASA helmet and everything. Everyone is wearing Hawiian lays too.

God you have to love Key West...

Scary stuff. The storm is strengthening again as it heads towards the gulf, but it is being pulled northward by the low over missouri - it is definitely making the big turn.

lexslamman: Scary stuff. The storm is strengthening again as it heads towards the gulf, but it is being pulled northward by the low over missouri - it is definitely making the big turn.



See now, Tom Sorrels is saying its not turning.

faethe, probably because this coming week starts Fantasty Fest in Key West!

He's only confused because he loves the GFDL too much.

I don't think any of the FHS has fallen for it's lame attempts at trickery... ;)

FLA Chickie: faethe, probably because this coming week starts Fantasty Fest in Key West!


Oh RIGHT I forgot about that! Well they are wearing thier costumes and boarding up. I REALLY want people in New Orleans and the coast to see that. This is how it should be - not with people going spazz apeshiat all over the place. For farks sake this is a HUGE excuse for a party.

I usually like Tom Sorrels, but think he's dead wrong.

faethe

No, she is going to turn. Take a look at some gulf of mexico satellite imagery and tell me which way the steering currents are going north of the Yucatan. The models have been adamant. And she is changing course.

A huge excuse for a party in a giant bowl tends not to be a good idea.

El_Bastard: I don't think any of the FHS has fallen for it's lame attempts at trickery... ;)


No I sure am not - but I do not think its going to take a hairpin turn. I DO think its going to trend north.

Damn where's my Dorothy outfit? You know Wal-mart was selling the ruby red shoes last year? I even have an ugly ass little dog.

Okay, I'm out, y'all, see you on the other side of dinner - tonight I am whipping up a badass etoufee.

snakespm: A huge excuse for a party in a giant bowl tends not to be a good idea.


Sure it is! Skateboard are great in bowls, and hey man - that shiat was not caused by the storm so much as idiots not maintaining thier flood control systems. They must do some serious work on that shiat before anyone with a lick of sense will even THINK about moving back in a serious manner. Now, if you are where a cat 5 or 4 comes aground, well, you should not be there, period. BUT if its less than a middlin' three, and your house is tried, tested, and true, you may consider other alternatives.

Ths is not something I would advocate for anyone who does not know what the fark is going on. Straight up. Not even a one.

Tom Sorrel is saying its going to stall over the Yucatan and guess what? GUESS WHAT? Play Ninja fight with the high until Saturday.