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(Some Guy)   Climate change inevitable for the next hundred years. Get your Arizona beach-front property early   ( divider line
    More: Scary  
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10835 clicks; posted to Main » on 18 Mar 2005 at 9:33 PM (12 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

153 Comments     (+0 »)

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2005-03-18 02:13:04 PM  

/already lives in AZ
2005-03-18 04:30:31 PM  

Unfortunately, Arizona will deplete its aquifers by then.
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2005-03-18 04:31:06 PM  
Arizona isn't getting any water as long as Los Angeles exists.
2005-03-18 04:43:14 PM  
The sky is falling!
2005-03-18 04:45:00 PM  
Here's a nice graph of the warming trend with respect to historical data.

[image from too old to be available]
2005-03-18 05:27:31 PM  
pontechango: Here's a nice graph of the warming trend with respect to historical data.

That's not a graph of warming trends, that's a graph of temperatue anomalies!! Are you sure it has been triple-non-fat frappucino normalized with a cherry on top and referenced back to absolute zero based on GIStemp data?

/sorry, just trying to get it out of the way early on...
2005-03-18 06:33:33 PM  
[image from too old to be available]
Tom Wigley, Terrorist
2005-03-18 06:37:02 PM  
[image from too old to be available]
Tom Wigley, Leering At Your Children
2005-03-18 06:37:28 PM  
There was an interesting paper I read that tracks the "hockey stick" back about 40,000 years. He takes into account the cyclical nature of the carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere and found.

What he found is that the percentage of methan and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (two greenhouse gasses) fluctuates with the "wobble" that the earth has in its orbit around the sun. The Earth wobbles in its orbit slowly and for periods of time (about 4,000 years) one hemisphere or the other will receive more sun because of it. When the northern hemisphere is getting the most sun the carbondioxide and methane in the atmosphere increases, thusly increasing the global temperature a half a degree. When the southern hemisphere is getting the most sun those levels and the global temperature go down.

The reason for this is the increased sun light causes a longer growing season, which creates more rotting vegetation, which emits methane and carbon dioxide. Since there is more vegetation in the northern hemisphere than the southern, the effect is more pronounced when there is more sun in the northern hemisphere.

What this climatologist found though was that there were two plateaus in the ammount of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere recently. These plateaus started about 8000 years ago and again 3000 years ago. They are considerable increases that have already increased the global climate by about a degree upwards. What is contravertial about this finding though is that the only things that have changed to create sustained carbon dioxide and methane emmissions from 8000 and 3000 years ago to today are two widespread revolutions in human agriculture (slash and burn farming, and the cultivation of rice).

Human influence on the climate is apparently nothing new.
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2005-03-18 09:08:02 PM  

Other researchers believe there is a 1500 year cycle related to salinity transfer between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

And it was significantly warmer about 7K years ago than today, at least in the northern hemisphere summer. Tree rings meausre spring and summer temperature rather than annual temperature. (See the link in the next paragraph.)

The Mann curve in the chart about is criticized in this report:

The `hockey stick' is a compelling image when first seen, and the IPCC 2001 report goes to some lengths to promote it by including it among the few diagrams presented in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM). And, nowhere in the SPM will one discover warnings on interpreting the graph. The IPCC has been severely
criticized for this, for four reasons.
The four reasons, paraphrased: tree rings (1000-1900) measure different values compared to thermometers (1900-present); error estimates are underemphasized; proxies show different responses since 1850 without the post-1950 spike seen by thermometers; if the curve doesn't show the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age its accuracy must be questioned.

I'm having difficulty finding a good plot of holocene temperature, the last 10K+ years instead of the last 1K.
2005-03-18 09:37:10 PM  
learn to swim.
2005-03-18 09:37:29 PM  
See you down in Arizon Bay. Learn to swim!
2005-03-18 09:38:18 PM  

Interestingly enough, the average surface temperatures of Mercury, Venus, and Mars have been increasing as well.

Since Halliburton doesn't have any equipment there, the only logical conclusion is that it's the increased radiation from our (very active at the moment) Sun.

2005-03-18 09:38:28 PM  
Curse you, trogalicious!
2005-03-18 09:39:28 PM  
nice, nothing like two Tool references within 20 seconds of each other.
2005-03-18 09:39:33 PM  
Summoning Brockway...

Come in Brockway!

/Misrepresentative graph in 3...2...1
2005-03-18 09:39:40 PM  
by thaaaaat much.
2005-03-18 09:40:33 PM  
"...the United States would be able to adapt to a 25-centimeter rise in sea level..."

If that's the case, then why worry?
2005-03-18 09:41:20 PM  
sadly Nickface, one can enjoy Bill Hicks without that of Tool.

/the more you know
2005-03-18 09:41:46 PM  
[image from too old to be available]

"Scientists-shmientists! What do they know, anyway?"

(Yes, you saw me use this in another story. It works here, too.)
2005-03-18 09:43:44 PM  
Me and Al Gore blame the combustible engine.
2005-03-18 09:45:17 PM  
There has been criticism of the hockey stick graph. The most quoted argument comes from a non-scientist whose income is related to the criticism. Essentially every other credible scientist states that global warming comes from greenhouse gasses, the most obvious is carbon dioxide. Here's the real deal farkers, when you burn a gallon of gas, carbon dioxide goes into the atmosphere. It stays there and traps the sun's heat. The planet get warmer and ice melts. It is not that difficult. Kinda like fist in the nuts, feel pain.
2005-03-18 09:46:26 PM  
[image from too old to be available]
[image from too old to be available]
2005-03-18 09:47:51 PM  
I own 30 acres in the Ozarks. Close enough to float drunkenly down the river in summer, yet far from any flood danger. Sux not to be me.
2005-03-18 09:49:09 PM  
2005-03-18 09:50:06 PM  
Does this mean Ahnold will be the governator of "New Atlantis"?
2005-03-18 09:50:25 PM  
"A meter sea level rise would have a lot of major consequences for many parts of the world," Wigley said

Such as those parts of the world being underwater.
2005-03-18 09:50:29 PM  
Dammit, TheOther, you almost made me shoot meatball marinara out my noseholes!
2005-03-18 09:51:57 PM  

"...the United States would be able to adapt to a 25-centimeter rise in sea level..."

If that's the case, then why worry?
I no! These pansy furiners axpect the USA (greatest country ever) to take kare of everieone. I cant tell you how sick you furiners make me! Just thinkin bout it makes me wanna shoot stuff.

/and learn inglish you filthy furiners!!!
//survival of the fittest!!!
2005-03-18 09:53:08 PM  
New Orleans is fuct. Won't someone PLEASE think about the boobies?!
2005-03-18 09:54:24 PM  
As Crichton points out in his latest book, State of Fear, sure we burn stuff and CO2 goes into the atmosphere. Since it's atmospheric, and the phenomena is called global warming, it presumably should affect the entire world. However, if we look at 70 year data at various locations worldwide, we find a lot of places where the temperature has stayed constant or even gone down, despite the fact that CO2 levels have constantly increased.
2005-03-18 09:54:49 PM  

HA HA! "send my new keyboard to..."
2005-03-18 09:56:29 PM  
Damn those "live one time only then die and go to heaven" religions!

Nothing makes a person ecologically-minded faster than a firm belief in reincarnation.

If GW believed that he was coming back to this planet, he'd be a bit more predisposed to sign the Kyoto Accord and maybe help control global warming. Thanks SO much,'ve given our nation exactly what we need to justify destroying our world!
2005-03-18 09:56:35 PM  
I thought the weekly "global warming" thread was scheduled for each tuesday morning.
2005-03-18 09:57:27 PM  
My wife already used that trick to get me to move from Sweden to Tucson, AZ... She told me there was a nice beach. Havn't found it yet
2005-03-18 09:57:31 PM  
[image from too old to be available]

Isn't this one of the guys from The Onion's weekly "What do you think" column?

Guess not, but he certainly belongs there.

[image from too old to be available]
2005-03-18 09:58:00 PM  
[image from too old to be available]
Unavailable for comment...
2005-03-18 10:00:34 PM  
This issue is very complex and needs lots of good science.
Humans had nothing to do with the 120,000 YBP rise, or 240,000 YBP rise, etc.

[image from too old to be available]
2005-03-18 10:01:26 PM  
Why do rising sea water stories always bring on the California comments? Have you seen the west coast and the east coast? The elevation of Santa Monica California (right on the beach) is higher than that of Orlando Florida (200 miles from the coast).

Take a Geology class, or a Geography class, or look at a map. Morans.

/rant. back to basketball.
2005-03-18 10:02:38 PM  
No word yet on if that kid who looks like Spiderman/Tobey Maguire will be saved by that guy who looks like Harrison Ford in an ice age NYC.
2005-03-18 10:03:50 PM  
[image from too old to be available][image from too old to be available]
Hypocritical gasbags against placing renewable energy sources --wind turbines-- in places visible from their yachts.
2005-03-18 10:04:07 PM  


[image from too old to be available]

time to move to smokey/dirty/raining/polluted/dark/destroyed/radioactive LA?
2005-03-18 10:05:25 PM  
First person to suggest that "Global Cooling" was an accepted scientific theory loses. Anyone else who suggests something not published in a peer-reviewed journal also loses. If it ain't peer-reviewed, it's crap.

A decent explanation of the "Global Cooling" fiasco:

The importance of peer-review:

The American Geophysical Union's statement on climate change:

/This thread needs more cowbell Brockway
2005-03-18 10:05:28 PM  
The answer is so obvious, just ship the extra water to mars, duh.
2005-03-18 10:06:52 PM  
Showlow1: The beach is in Yuma.
2005-03-18 10:08:41 PM  
"The answer is so obvious, just ship the extra water to mars, duh."

Hell, just blow up the extra water with a nuke.
2005-03-18 10:12:05 PM  
As Crichton points out in his latest book

Yeah, but Crichton also thinks we can bring extinct monsters back to life with frog DNA. He is a pop-science boob.
2005-03-18 10:14:24 PM  
This was predicted a long time ago by a prophet. The man also included a map of what the world will look like. If anyone knows of the name of the guy I'm thinking of, would you mind easing my mind and letting me know? Thanks.
2005-03-18 10:14:48 PM  
Can anyone find or possibly make a map of what the world would look like in thousands of years according to these trents. Such as the world now, 100 years, 200 years etc. and make the land disapear.

Make's me think of Waterworld (hey, I liked it!)
2005-03-18 10:16:44 PM  
"What we need is a giant ice cube!"

[image from too old to be available]

/shamelessly swiped
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