It's an excellent opportunity to get teh b00bies on teh morning tube.

But, then, Lisa Joyner left CBS2 and Jillian Barberie skanked out and is on her way to bein the next Kirstie Alley after her husband left her and the producers kicked her tatted ass off the national show.

Now, I gotta listen to guys with horned rimmed glasses tell me the weather in Socal is going to be... sunny.

Wow. It's great to see that things haven't changed back home. Yes, Rock Hill is my old stomping ground.
Yes, Rock Hill is named after a pile of rocks.


/Not submitter

Here in Texas, a legislator is trying to make it a criminal act to call yourself a "Meterologist" when you don't have the degree to support the claim.

Obviously all of the other problems are taken care of...

I must say, the weathermen here in the Dallas Area are FAR better than Southern California. Even with their "Super Retardo Weather Radar 4000" or whatever they are calling it this week, the Texas weatherment say:

"It's going to be cold, wear a jacket."

Then I go outside and low and behold...it is cold and I need a jacket.

In Orange County, that Tanned Troy McClure clone "Dallas Raines" grins and says:

"Looks like it is going to be a cold one this weekend. We have some rain coming that'll cool us down and then we'll warm up on Friday."

Then I walk outside, there is not a cloud in sight, and
there are warm 25 mil per hour winds.

I think they pre-tape the weather.

most of our forecasters in kansas city couldn't forecast the weather correct for five minutes later even if they were standing outside.

now sonny eliot....there's a proper weatherman. fog + drizzle = fozzle.

Obvious tag is well deserved.

"Even though we think we're smart and we have all this equipment, Mother Nature is still in charge," he said. "Mother Nature doesn't have this computer, she doesn't have Doppler radar or predictability models."
Said Howell, "She doesn't know what she's supposed to do."

Oohh, I see a smiting in the future for this quack.

The weather forecasters have one of the best jobs in the world. They never have to be definite and can get away with "Maybe, Probably, Might, Should, Could, Perhaps" and so on. They get away with what they say and not worrying about falling back on their words. I want a job like that!

and here i am looking at weather risk management systems today. how fitting.

Good thing we have groundhogs to tell us how long winter will last. They're at least as accurate as so-called "meteorologists."

Holy crap, it's an obvious heptfecta!!

my rule of thumb...look out the window and you have your "up to the minute" forecast.

Spelling is 'meteorologist'. Meteorologists have more forecasting skill than climatologists, who probably have none at all, yet we get all this grief about climate change. The climate has NEVER been stable - it has always changed and my guess is we have not a single clue about how to influence it in any particular way. Why are people so easily scared, or is it just a self-reinforcing mix of opportunist politicians and eco-nuts, and grant-hungry academics? Oh wonderful day when they admit they haven't a clue!

And while they can't call the weather correctly 72 hours in advance using the very best computer models in existence, based on decades of meticulous observations regarding short term regional weather variations, many are quite sure they can do so for hundreds of years into the future based on untestable models and weather data extrapolated from pollen counts and ice core bubbles.

Lang Spoon: Oh wonderful day when they admit they haven't a clue!

Damn you and your superior typing speed, Lang Spoon!

Take this weekend. I am looking for the weather on Monday. Several sources say possible t-storms, others say just cloudy. Don't the weather dudes get closer to being accurate within say 24 hours?

What about John-John Macky and the storm tracker accucast?

I find that if I wake up in the morning and piss ice cubes I tend to need a coat that day.
If I wake up in the morning and hear a noise like little drops of water hitting the skylight, I need an umbrella that day.
If I wake up in the morning and trip over 12 beer bottles, I need to go back to bed.

Can I get hired on my tv channel as the weather guy?

Unavailable for comment

/obvious

Global Warming is a farce!!!!

/wheeeeee!

Forecast was for Partly Cloudy here in VA.

Weather forecast office decides to change it to Light Snow AS ITS HAPPENING today.

/Meteorologist
//Sad at how many times they blow forecasts and take forecast models verbatim

Today's forecast: Dark in the predawn hours with scatter light approaching towards dawn. Light through most of the day with dimishing lightness towards the evening. Expect Dark to return after sunset and continue throughout the night.

/forget who said that, but it always gives me a laugh...

Weathermen lied! Children died!

I lived near a "meteorologist" for a local channel once, and I swear he'd go out in his front yard, fire up a smoke, exhale, and then go report "area fog."

Just another example of why global warning is a tool of fear and promiganda.

You can't even predict the weather in a 1 mile sq radius 10 hours in advance, but we all swallow the fear of global warning. When will you people learn?

The climate has NEVER been stable

Who do you think told us that?

I always enjoy when the weathermen apologize for having to "predict" rain or snow... like it's their freakin' fault!

"Sorry folks, looks like we have snow on the way. Mother nature must not have read my request demanding sunshine and rainbows!"

"Mother Nature doesn't have this computer, she doesn't have Doppler radar or predictability models."

Said Howell, "She doesn't know what she's supposed to do."

Aahh, she's been drinking again.

HEY!!!! For all the naysayers and "I-knew-better" losers.

Predicting the weather is like being in the desert, pinning down the accelerator of a running truck, throwing it in gear, and then figuring out where it's going to be over the next 48 hours. A meteorologist would take into account the equivalent of sand condistions, sand dunes, and wind shear, slope of the land, and at the end of it all, he'd be pretty damn close.

FARK everyone who gives true meteorologists such a hard time. IF THE JOB IS SO EASY, YOU GO DO IT. It literally is the study of astro-dynamics, and so many jerks out there log onto weather.com, check the weather, and if it is different than predicted over the next TEN DAYS, then they dismiss it and claim they knew better.

/yeah, I'm pissed.
//yes, I am a former meteorology major (2 1/2 years). Take it from someone who has a better idea of what goes on than you do- the job is hard. Give them some respect.
///And global warming is likely happening. Even Rush Limbaugh finally admitted to it. Take that for what it's worth- if you burn enough stuff, you're going to pollute the atmosphere, increase levels of condensation nuclei, cloud dynamics, and yes- IT WILL CHANGE WEATHER PATTERNS.

Yesterday, our local paper's website had a forecast calling for a high temperature of 58 degrees, while right next to it there was a current temperature reading of 65 degrees.

/do they even read their own forecasts?

guncleaner2

I am just curious, why do they predict 10 day forecasts? How accurate is a 24 hour, 48 hour & 72 hour forecast?

guncleaner2
It literally is the study of astro-dynamics,

I think you meant THERMODYANMICS. ;)

For all those people who say that being a meterologist would be easy because you can say things like "maybe, should, percent chance, etc." try being a military meterologist. There is a lot more to the job than just looking outside and saying "Well, hot damn, it's going to rain!"

This is in addition to the fact that if there is a forecast for a given city, one half of the city could be having entierly different weather than the other half. You might have ice pellets and freezing rain on one half of the city and have a deeper surface warm layer that is causing straight rain to fall.

Of course meterologists always have to forecast for the worst possible situation because it is better to slightly overforecast so that the proper precautions are taken to protect life and property. (example: If there is a chance for freezing rain and the meterologist decides to go with straight rain and a bridge gets iced over, you could have serious consequences.)

Yes, atmospheric dynamics is a science, but weather forecasting is *at best* an art. There are some who are better at it than others, but don't knock on them if they miss it once in a while.

Hell, I thought NASCAR was easy until I noticed how tired my left arm got holding those left turns all day...

Hang On Voltaire:

24 hour forecast is usually pretty damned accurate. A good forecaster can have a forecast that by military standards stays "in category" the entire 24 hours, though a new forecast is produced usually every 8 hours. (three times a day)

48hr through 10 day forecasts are usually generated using raw data from weather prediction models. These range in accuracy from "dead on" when the model is forecasting for an area AND a weather regime that it is useful for to batshiate wacky. Different weather models have different strengths and weaknesses which will cause problems in some areas. Usually beyond about 72 hours forecasts (including model generated forecasts) revert to using climatology for a forecast. A climo based forecast will be as accurate as you'd think a forecast would be based on the average condition of the atmosphere is during a given month: kinda close.

guncleaner2: FARK everyone who gives true meteorologists such a hard time.


You are agreeing with me a lot here, there are too many variables and the models are only so dependable.

Predicting the weather is like being in the desert, pinning down the accelerator of a running truck, throwing it in gear, and then figuring out where it's going to be over the next 48 hours.

And predicting the course of global climate change over a century is how much worse?

if you burn enough stuff, you're going to pollute the atmosphere, increase levels of condensation nuclei, cloud dynamics, and yes- IT WILL CHANGE WEATHER PATTERNS.

What does them a disservice are the guys that run the spiffiest new untestable climate model and predict that we will see precisely 0.684 degrees C average change on the first of March 2084. B-farking-S. These are the same guys that were predicting a new ice age 20 years ago. No one calls them on it.

Also, no one seems to relate the amount of man-released carbon to that released naturally by vulcanism. It's not nearly as much. And everyone seems to be tap-dancing around the effects of solar variability, although some models (probably just as inaccurate as the others) show that is a huge determinant as well.

Should we be polluting like there's no tomorrow, no. Can we predict the effects to any degree of accuracy, no. Should our very inability to predict the effects be, in the end, scarier than Yet Another Bogus Climate Model, yes, IMO.

astrodynamics!

internets!

OMG Global warming is teh farce!



Oh wait. The ten warmest years on record were all in the 1990's and 2000's.

This is just the directly recorded data. It goes further back (several thousands of years) but that relies on interpreting data from glaciers, so it has more uncertainty.

Ikarus: try being a military meterologist


There's a job I wouldn't want. Or an aviation meteorologist. Because when you get it wrong, people don't just end up with their hair wet or their shoes messed up.

"Earlier on today apparently a lady rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well don't worry if you're watching, there isn't."

(1987)

Hang on Voltaire:

Everything is based on analyzing how different systems will interact with one another to then generate a probability model. The example I gave with a truck is a really great one- the truck represents a parcel of air moving across our great nation. Each parcel of air has its own characteristics (amount of moisture that it posseses, it's barometric pressure, temperature, wind speed). The sand conditions represent the physical earth that a parcel of air, or (on a larger scale) weather system, moves over. How many of you know that a mountain range or a body of water will affect how parcel of air behaves? (I'm sure someone from Buffalo could tell you all about Lake Effect and how it brings massive amounts of snow on the lee side of the lake). And the sand dunes represent pressure- we all know there is an H or L on the map, but do any of the many naysayers understand why they are important? It is because a high pressure system wants to disperse itself, and a low pressure system (as the warm air rises) will draw air parcels toward itself.

Here's the kicker: a "parcel of air" can be small, something the size of a hot air balloon. Imagine tracking all of these parcels of air, millions of them, as they drift across the United States. When you relate the whole thing back to the analogy, meteorologists are tracking thousands of trucks, all with the accellerator pegged down to different degrees, and all of them swarming and running into each other and veering off this way and that. NOW try to tell me where it'll be in 10 days- it's pretty amazing stuff they do.

So to answer your question, I would put a pretty good amount of stock in the 24, 48, and 72 hour predictions. Meteorologists actually have model predictions that trend 120 days out- they analyzes general trends and large-scale systems, which are then compared to historical data to come up with a general probability model. However, the public isn't usually told about these because, just as they do now, they would ask "well, why can't you tell us definitely?" I think people don't understand that weather isn't a vending machine- you don't put in 75 cents and get out a candy bar- it's trying to predict chaotic events.... like 1,000,000 trucks rolling across the desert, and where will they be in 72 hours? A week? Ten days....?

As for why do they have a 10 day forecast, its because they have the ability to give you a "trend" that far out. Trends are different though from a definite answer on the weather 10 days from now. Mostly, they are hyped up by news stations to keep watchers tuned to their station.

Take that chart and add increased carbon dioxide levels and you will see that as the level of CO2 raises though the 50 - 80 the tempeture fell.

The point is co2 and temp have no corolation, Global warming is a farce,Take that chart and add increased carbon dioxide levels and you will see that as the level of CO2 rises though the 50 - 80 the temperature fell.

The point is co2 and temp has no coloration; Global warming is a farce. Your doing what all global warning terriorists do, only give information that make you look good and ignore the real facts.

Read STATE OF FEAR by Michael Crichton, all his data is backed up by footnotes and facts. Go ahead dare to learn, or be frighten in ignorence.

What te fark did I just say? I hate cut and paste, lets try that again:

Take that chart and add increased carbon dioxide levels and you will see that as the level of CO2 rises though the 1950,s 80,s the temperature fell. How is that possible that as CO2 rose temp fell?

The point is co2 and temp has no coloration; Global warming is a farce,

Read STATE OF FEAR by Michael Crichton, all his data is backed up by footnotes and facts. Go ahead dare to learn, or be frighten in ignorance.

Just to clarify:

Weatherman != Meteorologist
Weather != Climate

That is all. We now return to your regularly scheduled farking.

Ikarus- where did you go to school?

yyrkoon- which school did you study meteorology at? Or, rather, which school do you mop floors at that features meteorlogy, thereby rendering you an expert?

/ignorance, indeed.

I always thought % chance of range said how OFTEN it would rain in a given stretch of time, whereas % in terms of probabilty relates to a SPECIFIC EVENT? Rainfall isn't like flipping a coin, pulling a card out of a deck, or rolling the dice. It's been my experience that every farking time they say "30% chance of rain" it definitely rains, or at least drizzles.

/analyzes waaay to far into certain things. Ever deconstruct a commercial?
//A real meteorologist clarify for me here.

UberDave

GOD DAMMIT!! You're Family Guy weatherman pic has the whole US except the upper peninsula of Michigan.

//we get no respect, no respect

University of Pittsburgh if you must know. However it does not take an expert to collect ALL the facts.

I can say the same of you. What school did you that you know for a fact you are right.

Read STATE OF FEAR; are you afraid of learning something? Take the blinders off and enjoy life. Then maybe you won't feel the need to insult people you don't know, name-calling is the true hint at intelligence.