Well it worked for me since that second Reggie Wayne touchdown won my fantasy game. I say WhoooooHooooo!

Best decision? Maybe. The Colts needed a touchdown, so keeping the ball away from Manning was more important than where he got the ball (though where he got the ball was obviously important).

The bad decision was running a two yard play, running the risk of falling inches short, as they did.

The next-worst decision was passing on third down, especially if they were planning on going for it on fourth down.

I liked that he went for it, I didn't like the playcall. Fake punt, run the ball (with FAULK. Seriously, I don't get why Maroney gets snaps anymore), do a screen - middle or wide receiver (Welker doesn't get 2 YAC?), etc. Anything but a simple out pattern.

The real "failure" was the previous drive where the Pats defense basically gave Manning the middle of the field.

They had built a lead by frustrating Manning by taking away his best options and forcing him to throw to his crappier receivers in 1v1 coverage. They changed that and played soft, and the Colts cut the lead to 6.

Hometeam fan + statistics = bad argument.

Maybe the decision to go for it was the best decision, but the playcall once the decision was made probably wasn't. Why not throw a screen or something? It's 2 freaking yards.

Going for it was the equivalent of winning a million dollars on the lottery and then taking that million and going to a casino so you could try to win a million dollars.

Rapmaster2000: Hometeam fan + statistics = bad argument.

Home team fan?

According to some numbers I just made up, the Patriots had about a 63.235% chance to win by going for it. However league statistics say that teams score touchdowns in about 99% of games played, thus it was clearly a better option to go for it as 99-63 = 36, which coincidentally was the age of Caldwell's son Jermaine.

Yeah, whatever you have to tell yourself Patriotfanfailmitter.

I suppose if Belichick was planning on letting the Colts score a quick TD, then going for a FG to win might have worked. But running out of time outs before the 2-minute warning and the tackler who decided to do a shoestring tackle on Addai at the 1yd-line with a minute left, allowing the Colts to run out the clock, kinda shot that plan dead.

/don't make that tackle, and you have plenty of time to move down the field for a FG attempt

Truth is if Faulk doesn't bobble it, the Pats win that game. He just didn't make the catch he needed to. I don't know why he isn't getting more blame.

So the "best" decision was to hope that absolutely everything went according to plan.

1. No false starts or other penalties.
2. Receivers running perfect routes.
3. Receiver making the catch.
4. Receiver making secure catch.
5. Receiver gaining enough yards for the first down.

Any one of those things (and probably more) going wrong and you're handing the ball to Manning with a very short field. Sure you can hope for the D to step it up and get a turnover, but why not give them 70 yards to play with and force the Colts to make play after play?

They were playing like they were losing and going for it was NOT the best call.

In last night's thread I kept saying that it was a bad call, despite my normal preference to take chances and go for it on 4th down. But the more I think about it, the more I realize it was probably the right call. They get it, and the game's over right there. And while the Colts are less likely to score from their own 30 than the Pats' 30, it's probably not THAT much less of a possibility, given how the defense was playing. At least not enough to make it matter in your decision. So yeah, I think I retract my statements from the last thread.

However, I still stand by my assertion that they should've run a play that clearly got them past the 1st down marker. It's 4th and 2, send your guys on 4 or 5 yard routes.

And yes, not letting Addai score on that run was stupid.

You know, Tom Brady seems like a decent enough guy, but the constant media fellatio of him and the entire Patriot organization is starting to make me hope that Brady never wins another game and that Belicheck gets his hoodie caught in the gears of a combine.

They lost--Belicheck farked up. Move on, nothing to see here.

I agree that it was the right call. Reposted from a redlit thread:

I think he figured:
a) We might get the first
b) We might hold them to three if we don't
c) They'll have a short field with 2 minutes left. If they score quickly, we'll get the ball back and be OK

However that last part got screwed when they tackled Addai at the 3 yd line for a first down. Should have let him score.

/Happy the Colts won

If you want to know if it was the right decision or not, just imagine what your reaction would be if it was Andy Reid making that call.

Also, people are focusing on the wrong thing. Belichek *did* fark up in his coaching, but not on the 4th and 2. He was dumb for trying to stop the Colts on 1st and goal. He should have let them score and given himself more time to drive back down for a FG. That was the much bigger mistake IMO.

Zombie Hitler: If you want to know if it was the right decision or not, just imagine what your reaction would be if it was Andy Reid making that call.

Whoa, whoa,whoa, wait one minute mister. That would mean Andy Reid would have to think instead of just looking at his pretty pretty chart. All Andy's thoughts are prejudged right there for him on his chart.

/dude can game plan
//dude cannot think on his feet

I've watched 2-4 NFL games a week for almost 15 years now, and that was the single worst coaching decision I've ever seen. I almost always advocate going for it on fourth down more than teams actually do, but in this case, it was an absolute bonehead call.

There is no getting around it. With one play call Belichick showed that he is far from the genius that everyone makes him out to be. He would be nothing without Tom Brady.

He should've had Maroney run back to the end zone and waste time, then take a safety. They would've won because there would've been too many yards to gain after the free kick and not enough time.

The bigger mistake was wasting 2 time outs on a drive when you're attempting to kill the clock.

Subterfuge1: I've watched 2-4 NFL games a week for almost 15 years now, and that was the single worst coaching decision I've ever seen.

Come on now. Eagles made a much more retarded one just a week earlier choosing to kick a FG down 7 with a few minutes left.

Anyone with access to a TV should flip on ESPN news right now. Does Belichick ever take that damn hoodie off? Would it be horrible if he wore a shirt with a collar just once?

DamnYankees: Truth is if Faulk doesn't bobble it, the Pats win that game. He just didn't make the catch he needed to. I don't know why he isn't getting more blame.

Because Faulk didn't blow a 17 point lead or turn the ball over in the end zone. He actually played a great game for a 47-year old midget. I'm surprised he made that catch at all.

/actually he's my girlfriend's favorite player. That's why.

If the Pats hadn't gone into the prevent defense when they had a 17 point lead, this would be a moot point.

Bad call...get over it.

Hillbilly Jim: Zombie Hitler: If you want to know if it was the right decision or not, just imagine what your reaction would be if it was Andy Reid making that call.

Whoa, whoa,whoa, wait one minute mister. That would mean Andy Reid would have to think instead of just looking at his pretty pretty chart. All Andy's thoughts are prejudged right there for him on his chart.

/dude can game plan
//dude cannot think on his feet

lol, It's a big god damn chart, to be fair. After the FG debacle and the shiat Reid caught for that, I can't imagine what it would be like if he pulled what Belichek pulled.

Cat Food Sandwiches: If the Pats hadn't gone into the prevent defense when they had a 17 point lead, this would be a moot point.

The only thing prevent defense actually prevents is your victory.

Zombie Hitler: If you want to know if it was the right decision or not, just imagine what your reaction would be if it was Andy Reid making that call.

You can't do that because Andy Reid would never have made that call, instead opting for a 1 yard dive to the left in that situation. Darth Hoodie at least knew to call a play that went 2 yards, barring the juggle.

Subterfuge1: I've watched 2-4 NFL games a week for almost 15 years now, and that was the single worst coaching decision I've ever seen. I almost always advocate going for it on fourth down more than teams actually do, but in this case, it was an absolute bonehead call.

There is no getting around it. With one play call Belichick showed that he is far from the genius that everyone makes him out to be. He would be nothing without Tom Brady.

Why? Peyton clearly showed that the Colt's offense could travel the field with ease (I think the prior drive was 70+ yds in under a minute.

Try to think of the problem if the colts get the ball, the odds of the pats winning drop dramatically regardless of field position. Now is it worth going for?

t3knomanser: The only thing prevent defense actually prevents is your victory.


Wow did you think of that yourself?

DamnYankees:
Come on now. Eagles made a much more retarded one just a week earlier choosing to kick a FG down 7 with a few minutes left.

I missed that one. But Andy Reid doesn't count. That's just his normal coaching style: Bad.

nelsonal: Why? Peyton clearly showed that the Colt's offense could travel the field with ease (I think the prior drive was 70+ yds in under a minute.

Close but no.

DRIVE TOTALS: NE 34, IND 28, 6 plays, 79 yards, 1:49 elapsed

That version of the article eliminates the link to the great article they had on going for it on 4th in general.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-3.html

This was vindication for me as I've felt forever that going for it on 4th is a good idea in that opposition's-35-to-50 zone. Now I have colourful charts I can take down to the pub to illustrate my point. Because I am a nerd.

DamnYankees: Truth is if Faulk doesn't bobble it, the Pats win that game. He just didn't make the catch he needed to. I don't know why he isn't getting more blame.

I'd say a big part of it was that the safety (not the LB as I learned earlier) made a damn good play to stuff him. So many times we've seen Faulk slip a tackle and gain an extra chunk of yardage on similar plays, so it was pretty surprising to see him get stopped cold there. Credit the Colts' defense on that one, they made they play when they had to.

JusticeandIndependence: nelsonal: Why? Peyton clearly showed that the Colt's offense could travel the field with ease (I think the prior drive was 70+ yds in under a minute.

Close but no.

DRIVE TOTALS: NE 34, IND 28, 6 plays, 79 yards, 1:49 elapsed

There was also a 30+ yard PI call on that drive as well.

/not a Pats fan by any stretch

DamnYankees: Truth is if Faulk doesn't bobble it, the Pats win that game. He just didn't make the catch he needed to. I don't know why he isn't getting more blame.

I put the DVR to work when Sportscenter came on, because NBC only really only looked at that crappy angle from the Colts sideline as the replay, and Collinsworth kept saying he didn't have possession which you couldn't tell from that angle. I found that rather odd for the most pivotal play of the most hyped game of the year your only replay the point from which you can't see the ball, but that's beside the point.

So anyway, from the Pats endzone view, Faulk has control of the ball just before his left leg comes down. From the other view, you see his left leg comes down just before the 30, and his body is leaning over the 30, and that's where his forward progress should have been marked, just over the 30. You can't blame Faulk because he actually did make the play even though it wasn't clean.

Let's not forget one factor that eases some of the hue and cry about this ridiculous call.....New England still beat the spread!

If Addai scored that last TD, I would have won. Since Wayne did, I lost.

/hell of a game though

The stats are correct. The decision was basically a wash. You could say it was the smarter decision because the stats don't account for the NE Defense being totally gassed.

Faulk had that first down. Belichick's call was good, the mistake he made was being out of timeouts to challenge the ruling on the field.

DamnYankees: Also, people are focusing on the wrong thing. Belichek *did* fark up in his coaching, but not on the 4th and 2. He was dumb for trying to stop the Colts on 1st and goal. He should have let them score and given himself more time to drive back down for a FG. That was the much bigger mistake IMO.

Agreed. He should have let them score, should not have wasted his timeouts, should probably have run on 3rd... those decisions were all worse than going for it.

Bill Frist: The stats are correct. The decision was basically a wash. You could say it was the smarter decision because the stats don't account for the NE Defense being totally gassed.

I still say, presuming your defense is totally gassed, kick the ball out of your territory. At least give them another 30-40 yards to try and defend. The Colts needed a touchdown and might have run out of time before they got one.

Farkn Yaj Yenrac: Faulk had that first down. Belichick's call was good, the mistake he made was being out of timeouts to challenge the ruling on the field.

You had a better view of it than the official that was right next to him?

macadamnut: Bill Frist: The stats are correct. The decision was basically a wash. You could say it was the smarter decision because the stats don't account for the NE Defense being totally gassed.

I still say, presuming your defense is totally gassed, kick the ball out of your territory. At least give them another 30-40 yards to try and defend. The Colts needed a touchdown and might have run out of time before they got one.

Sure, but basically it boils down to this:

What is your chance of converting?
vs.
What is your chance of Manning getting a TD in 70 yards?

I'd say about 60% to 40%. 60>40.

cameroncrazy1984: You had a better view of it than the official that was right next to him?

Faulk had his back to the official that made the spot. He spotted the ball where Faulk landed, not where the ball was caught.

Farkn Yaj Yenrac: Faulk had that first down. Belichick's call was good, the mistake he made was being out of timeouts to challenge the ruling on the field.

I think he still had one. Michaels even said, "since the play happened on this side of the two-minute warning, he can still challenge it."

Bill Frist: macadamnut: Bill Frist: The stats are correct. The decision was basically a wash. You could say it was the smarter decision because the stats don't account for the NE Defense being totally gassed.

I still say, presuming your defense is totally gassed, kick the ball out of your territory. At least give them another 30-40 yards to try and defend. The Colts needed a touchdown and might have run out of time before they got one.

Sure, but basically it boils down to this:

What is your chance of converting?
vs.
What is your chance of Manning getting a TD in 70 yards?

I'd say about 60% to 40%. 60>40.

I still don't like the 60% chance when you're at your own 28 yard line. You have to factor field position into it.

Karma Curmudgeon: cameroncrazy1984: You had a better view of it than the official that was right next to him?

Faulk had his back to the official that made the spot. He spotted the ball where Faulk landed, not where the ball was caught.

Yeah, no he didn't. Faulk bobbled the ball.