1 in 1,827,635,774

Truly it is a simple statistical probability model.

You should have paid more attention in class.

feckingmorons: 1 in 1,827,635,774

Truly it is a simple statistical probability model.

You should have paid more attention in class.

Please show all work for credit.

KC gets Washington, Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Nope.
STL has their best in Detroit and Tennessee. Maybe.
TB gets Carolina twice. No way.
TN gets Buffalo, Miami and STL. No way.

I'd say maybe a 1 in 3 chance for the Rams to go 0-16. The other three will probably get 2-5 wins.

feckingmorons: 1 in 1,827,635,774

Truly it is a simple statistical probability model.

You should have paid more attention in class.

Seems like it would be a lot higher than that even if win/lose were pure random chance and 5 trials are already done, let alone the fact that these teams suck.

GAT_00:
TB gets Carolina twice. No way.

Carolina, while having underperformed, has pretty much the exact same lineup that went 12-4 last year. It's not a bad team.

But yeah, it's pretty unlikely any team will have 0 or 1 wins. The law of average generally catches up with you.

Racht: Carolina, while having underperformed, has pretty much the exact same lineup that went 12-4 last year. It's not a bad team.

So do the Titans pretty much.

GAT_00: Racht: Carolina, while having underperformed, has pretty much the exact same lineup that went 12-4 last year. It's not a bad team.

So do the Titans pretty much.

Agreed, and that's why both teams will end up with a few wins. KC and STL seem to be competing to see who can be the worst though. If they had to play each other this season I think that the players would probably just stare at the ball while drooling for either the entire 60 minutes or until Haley decided to fire enough people that they were forced to forfeit.

I'm going to the Red Skins vs Chiefs game Sunday, so I'm hoping the Chiefs are 0-6 this time three days from now. After that, I care a bit less about how they fair.

If any team does it it will be STL. They are horrific. Unholy in how awful they are.

I would also bet that there's a good chance the Raiders go 1-15. Can't really believe they beat the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have a horrendous schedule before the bye, so they could very easily be winless by then. The second half is much more favorable.

Of course, they lost at home to the Ryan LeafJamarcus Russell-led Raiders, so who knows.

LadyHawke: I'm going to the Red Skins vs Chiefs game Sunday, so I'm hoping the Chiefs are 0-6 this time three days from now. After that, I care a bit less about how they fair.

What I think is hilarious is that all of the teams the Redskins have faced this year were winless at the time of the games and yet the Skins are still 2-3.

Mentat:
What I think is hilarious is that all of the teams the Redskins have faced this year were winless at the time of the games and yet the Skins are still 2-3.

I'm particularly proud of my week 2 suicide pool pick of the Redskins, who got a 9-7 win versus the Rams.

Woo-hoo! St. Louis is odds-on favorite for a perfect season! We're truly inspired this year.

And, after sitting through the Vikings-Rams last week, I can promise the Rams are trying hard to live up to these high expectations.

I think the Baseball Cardinals folding at the end of the season like a cheap freakin' tent in a tornado just inspired the whole city to really go for it. Go with what you know, just fling yourself out the window for a beautiful all-10s belly-flop.

If we lose by 20 to Detroit, well, you KNOW we're giving it our all. It's great to have a goal. I'll get the popcorn.

Kansas City does have Denver at home as usual, and as usual, the Donkeys will have a hard time winning at Arrowhead. That alone should make the odds longer than 10-1. It might be different this year, but the Chiefs are not much different than last year's tea, that got 50% of their winning record by beating Denver at home.

0-16 is really, really hard to do. I mean, you have to suck beyond levels of comprehension. The Lions accomplished it, but that was a magnificent feat.

I don't think any of them can possibly lose all 16 games, but I would be willing to bet that none of the four will make the playoffs.

It depends on the scheduling, which I haven't checked, In the unlikely event that each played the other three, then there could only be one. The same is true of the so-far undefeated teams.


Barakku: Seems like it would be a lot higher than that even if win/lose were pure random chance and 5 trials are already done, let alone the fact that these teams suck.

Random chance, which doesn't actually exist, would say that the likeihood of any team losing nine games in a row is 2^-9, or 1/1024. With four teams, assuming they do not meet along the way (as I said, I haven't looked at the schedules), it would be 4/1024, or 1/256 that one will do so. Not astronomical at all.

finally, something the chiefs have a shot at accomplishing

Now wait one second.
I think the Chefs will win at least two. Maybe even four.

Racht: Carolina, while having underperformed, has pretty much the exact same lineup that went 12-4 last year. It's not a bad team.

But yeah, it's pretty unlikely any team will have 0 or 1 wins. The law of average generally catches up with you.

STATISTICS DO NOT WORK THIS WAY

The only shot I believe is the Rams. They're a truly awful team. Next best bet is the Chiefs but they were competitive against a meh Cowboys team. Then the Bucs who should beat the Panthers at least once. The Titans are at this point an enigma. No one can really explain why they've been so bad.

Last year, the Lions actually managed to score points in their games.

The 2009 Rams have scored 34 points this season, in 5 games. That is less than a touchdown a game! The 2008 Lions doubled that in their first 5 games (15.2 points)! And the Rams are allowing 29.2 points per game.

The Rams haven't made any game competitive*. They are awful. They had 4 trips into the Redzone against the Vikings last week and turned the ball over! 3 times it was inside the 10!

Yikes, that team is bad.

*The Redskins game, while ending in a 9-7 lose for the Rams, was not competitive. It was a War Crime. I'm filling the paperwork right now.

MBK: *The Redskins game, while ending in a 9-7 lose for the Rams, was not competitive. It was a War Crime. I'm filling the paperwork right now.

If Redskins-Rams was a war crime, I can't imagine what the Browns-Bills would classify as.

/You are now aware that both games were alliterative

YoungSwedishBlonde: If Redskins-Rams was a war crime, I can't imagine what the Browns-Bills would classify as.

/You are now aware that both games were alliterative

Word has it Jesus is trying to include that game as the 11th Amendment.

"Thou Shall Not Suck As Badly As The Browns and Bills, so sayeth the Lord"

MBK: Word has it Jesus is trying to include that game as the 11th Amendment.

"Thou Shall Not Suck As Badly As The Browns and Bills, so sayeth the Lord"

Amendment?

Racht: Mentat:
What I think is hilarious is that all of the teams the Redskins have faced this year were winless at the time of the games and yet the Skins are still 2-3.

I'm particularly proud of my week 2 suicide pool pick of the Redskins, who got a 9-7 win versus the Rams.

I picked the same along with two friends and we watched the game together. Our argument was that the Rams were terrible, what could go wrong? Well, Jason Campbell showed us what could go wrong. It was instant kharma for Cowboy's fans cheering for the Redskins.

/yeah, cool story bro

The Rams are the ones to bet on for this headline. When the coaches are apologizing after every game for their own performance outside of the team, the players give quotes to the press before a game similar to "there is a slight possibility we can win today" and more than half their fans leave mid second quarter, there really is no upside to their season.

Well, seeing as how both the Bucs and the Rams lost to the Landover Snyders I am going to venture a guess that both with go 0-16 and they'll flip a coin for the #1 overall draft pick.

/Redskins fan
//Disgruntled beyond belief

Screw you Kansas City, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Tennessee...that record is ours!

Signed,

Detroit

GAT_00: KC gets Washington, Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Nope.
STL has their best in Detroit and Tennessee. Maybe.
TB gets Carolina twice. No way.
TN gets Buffalo, Miami and STL. No way.

I'd say maybe a 1 in 3 chance for the Rams to go 0-16. The other three will probably get 2-5 wins.

The Rams cannot win against Detroit or Tennessee, not with their current line-up, anyway. This is their rock bottom, especially if they trade away Steven Jackson, as has been said to be a possibility on ESPN. I'd be surprised if St. Louis gets 1 or 2 wins, and actually expect to go 0-16 this year.

As a Rams fan, it almost seems the best course to take at this point. Ride the rest of the season out, get some players in the draft (including a much better quarterback), and start the rebuilding process. Let Steve Spagnuolo build a team that can win over the next few years, one built for tough defense first, and a solid offense second. Then we'll be back where we belong - at the top of the NFC West.

Epsilon:I don't think any of them can possibly lose all 16 games, but I would be willing to bet that none of the four will make the playoffs.

"PLAYOFFS?!? PLA-PLAYOFFS?!?"

I would say the Rams have the best shot at 0-16. The Chiefs will almost certainly win at least one, if they play the same way that they did against the Cowboys last week. The Titans might actually be good in the second half. Their schedule has been brutal in the early going.

please don't be the Titans please don't be the Titans please don't be the Titans

KC's been getting consistently better, playing on the level of their opponents before allowing a 1-2 lead to them. From there, they've gone the route of "Oh well, probably not winning this one, let's focus on practicing running/2-minute-drill/whatever". Against the Plowboys, they choked away a 2-possession lead against a team that was practically handing them the win, still fought back to tie it, then (of course) lost in OT. Redskins will probably be the team that earns 'em their first win, and they'll get at least 2 more out of the season. They're finding their rhythm and staying competitive, once they get their act together they might scrape together 3-4+ wins on the season.

Sirsky: please don't be the Titans please don't be the Titans please don't be the Titans

The only explaination is Steve McNair is haunting them because of how they did him in the end. Call Bill Murry.

oldebayer: It depends on the scheduling, which I haven't checked, In the unlikely event that each played the other three, then there could only be one. The same is true of the so-far undefeated teams.

The Chiefs are playing the entire NFC East in consecutive weeks (ending this week) which leaves mostly divisional play for the second half. They also play the rest of the AFC North (Steelers, Bengals and Browns) and Jacksonville and Buffalo.

I think the Chiefs are up to it.

Go Broncos!

oldebayer: Random chance, which doesn't actually exist, would say that the likeihood of any team losing nine games in a row is 2^-9, or 1/1024. With four teams, assuming they do not meet along the way (as I said, I haven't looked at the schedules), it would be 4/1024, or 1/256 that one will do so. Not astronomical at all.

1) 2^-9 is 1/512.
2) There are 11 games left, so your example would be 1/2048 per team.
3) You can't quite add the probabilities, because there is a chance that multiple teams could lose every possible game.
4) This is assuming each team has a 50% chance to win each game, which is ridiculous. The chance of one of these teams going 0-16 is much higher, because they're more than 50% likely to lose any individual game.
5) You do have to account for strength of schedule.

Football Outsiders does a reasonable analysis of this. Results:

St. Louis: 1.0%
Tampa Bay: 0.9%
Chiefs: 0.4%
Tennessee: 0.1%

The chance that at least one team goes 0-16 is ~(1-(.990*.991*.996*.999) or ~2.4%. This assumes that the chances are independent, i.e. the teams don't play one another. (I haven't checked.)

From what I've seen of them this year, I'd say only the Bucs have a good chance of losing 13+ games or all of them.

feckingmorons: 1 in 1,827,635,774. Truly it is a simple statistical probability model. You should have paid more attention in class.

As an aside, the odds of losing 16 consecutive coin flips are 1/65,536. I'm guessing you just made up a number that sounded big to you.

Allewiscious: Racht: Mentat:
What I think is hilarious is that all of the teams the Redskins have faced this year were winless at the time of the games and yet the Skins are still 2-3.

I'm particularly proud of my week 2 suicide pool pick of the Redskins, who got a 9-7 win versus the Rams.

I picked the same along with two friends and we watched the game together. Our argument was that the Rams were terrible, what could go wrong? Well, Jason Campbell showed us what could go wrong. It was instant kharma for Cowboy's fans cheering for the Redskins.

/yeah, cool story bro

That was actually one of Campbell's best games. He drove the team into the red zone 5 times. He's not the one that dropped 2 TD passes, fumbled, and ran left 10 times in the red zone. You can thank Jim Zorn, Devin Thomas, Santana Moss, and Mike Sellers for that.


God I hope we beat the Chiefs.

ihatedumbpeople: From what I've seen of them this year, I'd say only the Bucs have a good chance of losing 13+ games or all of them.

Watch a Raiders game. Their defense isn't bad, but their offense is one of the worst you'll ever see. And it's not like they have talented rookies on the bench or due back from injury.

chimp_ninja: ihatedumbpeople: From what I've seen of them this year, I'd say only the Bucs have a good chance of losing 13+ games or all of them.

Watch a Raiders game. Their defense isn't bad, but their offense is one of the worst you'll ever see. And it's not like they have talented rookies on the bench or due back from injury.

The Raiders have already won a game, so they're out of the running.

Though they ARE horrible.

Tickle Mittens: Sirsky: please don't be the Titans please don't be the Titans please don't be the Titans

The only explaination is Steve McNair is haunting them because of how they did him in the end. Call Bill Murry.

Seriously... I have no idea what the hell happened. The only real personnel loss was Haynesworth, which wasn't even that big a loss since he only played half a season at a time anyway, and we finally got some receivers. Based solely on that they should be better than last season, but damn that secondary...

I mean, sure, we had a pretty easy schedule last season for the most part, but we destroyed the Steelers so I don't think the record was entirely a result of the schedule. It sucks so much right now to be living in Indiana...

chimp_ninja: feckingmorons: 1 in 1,827,635,774. Truly it is a simple statistical probability model. You should have paid more attention in class.

As an aside, the odds of losing 16 consecutive coin flips are 1/65,536. I'm guessing you just made up a number that sounded big to you.

The prime factorization of the number he picked is 2*913817887. So yeah, he probably wasn't multiplying anything together to get that.

/math? i'm in the wrong tab

MmmmBacon: GAT_00: KC gets Washington, Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Nope.
STL has their best in Detroit and Tennessee. Maybe.
TB gets Carolina twice. No way.
TN gets Buffalo, Miami and STL. No way.

I'd say maybe a 1 in 3 chance for the Rams to go 0-16. The other three will probably get 2-5 wins.

The Rams cannot win against Detroit or Tennessee, not with their current line-up, anyway. This is their rock bottom, especially if they trade away Steven Jackson, as has been said to be a possibility on ESPN. I'd be surprised if St. Louis gets 1 or 2 wins, and actually expect to go 0-16 this year.

As a Rams fan, it almost seems the best course to take at this point. Ride the rest of the season out, get some players in the draft (including a much better quarterback), and start the rebuilding process. Let Steve Spagnuolo build a team that can win over the next few years, one built for tough defense first, and a solid offense second. Then we'll be back where we belong - at the top of the NFC West.

I haven't heard anything about that! Does anyone have a source on that rumor? Also, I've heard that Nnamdi Asomugha may be on the trading block. Any possible truth in that one? I could see why both guys would want out, but if you're St. Louis/Oakland, trading away the most skilled player on either roster just screams of throwing in the towel.

Sarcastica75: Now wait one second.
I think the Chefs will win at least two. Maybe even four.

The first one will be this weekend.

LadyHawke: I'm going to the Red Skins vs Chiefs game Sunday, so I'm hoping the Chiefs are 0-6 this time three days from now. After that, I care a bit less about how they fair.

I...I'm so sorry. I didn't think anything could top last weekend's
Browns-Bills suckfest, but this game might just do it.

LoudLiam: I haven't heard anything about that! Does anyone have a source on that rumor? Also, I've heard that Nnamdi Asomugha may be on the trading block. Any possible truth in that one? I could see why both guys would want out, but if you're St. Louis/Oakland, trading away the most skilled player on either roster just screams of throwing in the towel.

Given that StL. is in the process of being sold, and possibly moved, I'd say that throwing in the towel this season is the least of their concerns.

I was told there would be no math.