Recounts worked so well for Al Gore & Norm Coleman.

Al Jazeera reporting the same.

That should take about 4 hours.

According to an article in The Washington Post and The Guardian, the election may not have been rigged: Link

Iranian Supreme Court to name Khanmenei Supreme leader of the Universe.

I thought Alahowyousayhisname burned a bunch of the cast vote boxes...or, however you call them.

I'm stocking up on purple ink.

The election was probably gerrymandered. That isn't the same thing as being rigged.

Maybe they'll get the same people who did the Florida recounts in 2000.

Ah, this should go well. I wonder if I can guess what the result will be.

It would be nice to see Iran no longer in the grip of hardliner Islamic asshats. Sadly, I just don't see them giving up without a fight.

I genuinely hope all goes well for the opposition party.

Don't blame me, I voted for Ahmadinejad.

PacManDreaming: It would be nice to see Iran no longer in the grip of hardliner Islamic asshats. Sadly, I just don't see them giving up without a fight.

And so it goes. Ahmajinadad was one of the students who took hold of the US Embassy in Iran and held the hostages for a few years. He ruined Carter's reelection and allowed Reagan to become president. That was 25 years ago.

djcunix: Don't blame me, I voted for Ahmadinejad.

Heh.

recounting stuffed boxes.. awesome.

lol wut?

This is very, very bad. It's a brilliant PR move: "Want a recount? Well, let's look at those irregularities you're talking about. What, can't find irregular ballots? Oh, well then..."

They will count the votes as well as they count their number of gays.

PacManDreaming: It would be nice to see Iran no longer in the grip of hardliner Islamic asshats. Sadly, I just don't see them giving up without a fight.

I genuinely hope all goes well for the opposition party.

Allah them are gonna be booted after this.
Go GREEN!

Dogbeast: According to an article in The Washington Post and The Guardian, the election may not have been rigged: Link


Yeah, about that, 538 has some analysis of those numbers that seem more relevant to me:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ (new window)

What, no posting?

Aaaah, so is this the new Iran thread?

Might as well make it so.

Opposition leader dies, or gets imprisoned mysteriously in 3...2...1...

In a shocking result, they conclude that Adam Lambert won.

I don't believe unless it's on twitter.

"What's with the quotes? Is it some kind of ironic election recount?"

Reposting for Tatsuma, as requested here:


This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening.


Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij.

- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.

- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)

- This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran. Pictures of people shot, some to death, surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Things very are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.

There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

Later, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground. This is very big.

Tomorrow (or today as of the 16th of June)

Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. Plenty of twitter chat about dressing in black.

The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country.

A major showdown is expected to unfold

The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. The Revolution lives on.

Demands from the protesters

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?

Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.

Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.

He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.

Links

For further information on the Basij, Global Security has a good article about the history of the Basij.

CNN has a good article where eyewitnesses describe the type of violence usually unleashed by the Basij.

Here is another good article from GS again giving more background information on the ruthless Ansar thugs.

BBC profile of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri

Dangit, I was hoping Ahmaninsaneperson would keep going nuttier and nuttier and push the country over the edge to open rebellion. This might buy him enough time to let people calm down, and unfortunately, when people calm down they start asking whether living in a tyranny is so bad so long as they can have their cafe lattes?

Speaking of which: Obama sucks, Bush sucks, Kerry sucks, Ted Kennedy committed manslaughter and also sucks, Gore sucks, Perot sucks, Pelosi sucks, but doesn't swallow (or so I hear), Cheney sucks, Limbaugh sucks, Mr. Bean sucks, Yankees suck, Lakers suck, Penny-Arcade sucks, Giuliani sucks, Schwarzenegger sucks, Diane Feinstein sucks, San Francisco sucks, Chicago sucks, Texas sucks, New York sucks, etc, et al.

/Good, I can feel the anger growing within you.
//Join me, and we shall rule the world with an iron fist in a velvet glove.
///Seriously, though, Al Gore does suck

Some say we should NOT go to 5pm rally at Valiasr Sq., could be a trap by ProGov basij holding rally at 3pm #iranelection
4 minutes ago from web

URGENT: Today's rally is canceled. They are waiting to make another bloodshed. #iranelection
9 minutes ago from web

To those of you attending Mousavi's rally: do not engage in fights with the basijis. Also, move from Valiasr to Vanak. #IranElection #GR88
8 minutes ago from mobile web

Those are all from different people, mixed messages coming in about the rally now. Looks like the government might finally have sorted out a tactic that'll work, sadly.


And there's also this,
Confirmed by three people: police storming buildings and confiscating sattilites.
2 minutes ago from mobile web

I don't know how many are connecting to the internet from satellites now so don't know how important that is, though.

They're trying to appease the crowds, most of whom believe that the ballots were burned immediately after the fraudulent results were released.

This tactic didn't work yesterday and it won't work today.

So if Other Guy defeats Whatsisface, does that mean everyone has to switch sides? Like the police and paramilitary thugs would protect Other Guy, and the young protesters would rally behind Whatisface?

Stratfor Global Intelligence on the crisis (new window)

so this is the new thread?

Posted in the last thread, moving it here:

Have heard that the coup order was given by Russia. If so, there's a powerful country behind the gov. Don't lose hope though! #IranElection
6 minutes ago from mobile web

You know, this could be "option c" for Ahmadinejad keeping his trip to Russia despite this crisis. Yes, it's the Baghdad Bob "everything is fine, just a minor disagreement" tactic, but also you have the person you're protesting against in Russia - and that's all the protesters know. They COULD be discussing how marvelous rainbows look after fresh spring showers - or they could be discussing a joint military effort against YOU. Rumors like the ones here will spread fast once they hit the street, and the international community on the web is confirming part of it: that Ahmadinejad IS in Russia. And you can bet the government is having a hand in pushing and creating those rumors.

As mentioned before, truth is irrelevant on the ground here - it's what people believe that'll cause them to act one way or another.

if i were there i would be killing cops. i hate cops.

Speaking of which: Obama sucks, Bush sucks, Kerry sucks, Ted Kennedy committed manslaughter and also sucks, Gore sucks, Perot sucks, Pelosi sucks, but doesn't swallow (or so I hear), Cheney sucks, Limbaugh sucks, Mr. Bean sucks, Yankees suck, Lakers suck, Penny-Arcade sucks, Giuliani sucks, Schwarzenegger sucks, Diane Feinstein sucks, San Francisco sucks, Chicago sucks, Texas sucks, New York sucks, etc, et al.

You missed Michael Moore.

Now that ballots that were on fire are going to be recounted too?

Kiweh: Some say we should NOT go to 5pm rally at Valiasr Sq., could be a trap by ProGov basij holding rally at 3pm #iranelection
4 minutes ago from web

URGENT: Today's rally is canceled. They are waiting to make another bloodshed. #iranelection
9 minutes ago from web

To those of you attending Mousavi's rally: do not engage in fights with the basijis. Also, move from Valiasr to Vanak. #IranElection #GR88
8 minutes ago from mobile web

Those are all from different people, mixed messages coming in about the rally now. Looks like the government might finally have sorted out a tactic that'll work, sadly.


And there's also this,
Confirmed by three people: police storming buildings and confiscating sattilites.
2 minutes ago from mobile web

I don't know how many are connecting to the internet from satellites now so don't know how important that is, though.

They're not connecting to the internet, the government is trying to keep outside news out. The mindgames didn't work yesterday, and the people are expecting violence from their oppressors.

This parade is getting out of hand. (new window)

police storming buildings and confiscating sattilites.

Those are some tall buildings.

that should be "to hold "election" "recount""
/oh yeah i nested that shiat

Mousavi's message from GhalamNews now on http://mousavi1388.wikispaces.com/Ghalamnews.org and http://ghalamnews.tumblr.com/ #IranElection

Anyone with a decent translator? translator?

furiousxgeorge: This parade is getting out of hand. (new window)

lulzy

Figuring out time difference:

Tehran is +330 GMT
Eastern: -500
Central: -600
Mountain: -700
Pacific: -800

So if you're central, move the time ahead 9 1/2 hours (adjust date to tomorrow if you cross midnight).

Considering that the announcement for who won the elections was made a few hours after the end of voting, in a country that uses no electronics and just paper ballots, I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that the ballots were counted in the first place.

And what about the rumors that ballots were burned?

I find it interesting the Ahmeniwhatshisname is out of the country right now, on a diplomatic mission to Russia. If things continue to go sour, the Supreme Leader can announce that Moussavi was the real winner, and Ahmeniwhatever can slip into exile in Russia, a friendly county with Iran.

Win-Win situation for the Powers-that-Be in Iran. Either they keep their guy by crushing the protests, or use Moussavi as their puppet and look like they "did the right thing" by tossing the bogus election results out.

bostonguy: Stratfor Global Intelligence on the crisis (new window)

Horribly prepackaged when it was released. Denied that there was ever going to be a rally or marches. I am unsubscribing from the newsletter just because it's not global intelligence, it's a columnists ability to try to prognosticate and sound smart.

This thread has had infinitely more information of value.

BBC: Iran "to hold rigged election fraud recount"

/fixed it

Marble cake

Lifeless: A small sample of those at the previous rally for Ahmalittleteapot

color me shocked.