There's something happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear.

/can't be lamer

I've just been thinking all morning about the CNN stories about the proportions of Israelis willing to strike Iran, especially now that there is unrest. I just keep thinking, "please don't let those idiots do that." Especially with Iran, if anyone attacks them, they're going to unite completely around the most right-wing militant wingnuts they can possibly find and completely halt stymie any hope of getting something constructive out of them for at least 20 years.

Wow, that was the quickest green I've ever seen.

Background note on Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei. He is a theological scholar who declared that suicide bombing, nuclear weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction are haram. In other words forbidden, like eating pork, for Muslims. He has also stated that women in Islam are equal to men, and sincere followers of other religions have just as much right to Paradise as a sincere Muslim.

He is a very liberal Shiite holy man in Iran, and unfortunately not a member of the Iranian Guardian Council, which makes the decisions for the government of Iran.

This could be pretty epic; civil war probabilities, anyone?

I think it's time for Israel to turn the rest of the Middle East into a big glass parking lot.

mattharvest: This could be pretty epic; civil war probabilities, anyone?

I don't think he's senior enough for that, from what Code_Archeologist said. It does seem like the country is destabilizing quickly though.

mattharvest: This could be pretty epic; civil war probabilities, anyone?

I put it at about one in ten. Personal firearm ownership is about 5.7 firearms per 100 people, so for a civil war to trigger there will need to be multiple military divisions turning on the government or police forces refusing to follow orders. Otherwise the central Iranian government will be able to put down the insurrection very quickly.

This is the first time I can remember getting a headline greenlit, but edited. I feel violated.

But I'll take it.

DamnYankees - what was your original headline?

As I said in the other thread, he's under House Arrest, hasn't been heard of since, and the Iranian government answers his phones now.

He had previously issued a fatwa, against rigging of the elections in any form or shape, calling it a mortal sin.


does rigging include deciding WHO gets to be on the ballot in the first place, or can anyone be a candidate?
including atheists and women?

nah, didnt think so
/got to love fake democracies

Nutcase: DamnYankees - what was your original headline?

Just the quote.

mattharvest: This could be pretty epic; civil war probabilities, anyone?

Very unlikely. Most revolutions are a result of a crisis of authority, IE the government has lost all legitimacy with the crowds and also its ability to put down crowds by force (IE the 'force' has joined the revolutionaries). However, there is a possibility that this may be like the 1905 revolution was to the feb. 1917 edition in Russia.

Once again though, I can't escape the spectre of some idiot (probably Israel, maybe us) pulling some sort of stunt to force them to all unite behind the hard-right retards.

Code_Archeologist: Background note on Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei. He is a theological scholar who declared that suicide bombing, nuclear weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction are haram. In other words forbidden, like eating pork, for Muslims. He has also stated that women in Islam are equal to men, and sincere followers of other religions have just as much right to Paradise as a sincere Muslim.

I like the cut of his jib.

Looks like our CIA still knows what it's doing. I am impressed, gentlemen.

GurneyHalleck: Looks like our CIA still knows what it's doing. I am impressed, gentlemen.

Looks like you greatly overestimate the humanint branch of the CIA.

And Tats, since you're here, I figure I better note that I'm not trying to pile on Israel and its grievances, but one would be naive to not see how easily and dangerously wrenches extremely counterproductive wrenches can be thrown into the whole thing. And also who would be most likely to do it. It would be akin to when we goaded the Iraqis into invading Iran in 1980 telling them that the revolutionary movement would collapse when put under foreign attack. As we all know, it made it exponentially stronger.

006andahalf: wrenches extremely counterproductive wrenches

These wrenches brought to you by the Redundancy Department of Redundancy.

006andahalf: I figure I better note that I'm not trying to pile on Israel

You can start by blaming Israel if they actually do something while this is happening, and by staying on topic otherwise.

Tatsuma: 006andahalf: I figure I better note that I'm not trying to pile on Israel

You can start by blaming Israel if they actually do something while this is happening, and by staying on topic otherwise.

I know. I'm just going over the possibilities. Besides, it's pretty clear I'm not placing blame. I'm noting who is most likely to execute a (purely hypothetical) scenario. It may be a little off-topic, but it is somewhat interesting and relevant to consider possible future developments and ramifications of those.

Iran will simply launch a 9/11 attack against itself and blame Isreal or the "west". The people will relly around the hardliners and all this uprising giberish will be forgoten.

Lionel Mandrake: Code_Archeologist: Background note on Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei. He is a theological scholar who declared that suicide bombing, nuclear weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction are haram. In other words forbidden, like eating pork, for Muslims. He has also stated that women in Islam are equal to men, and sincere followers of other religions have just as much right to Paradise as a sincere Muslim.

I like the cut of his jib.

If things get worse, he might find that his jib gets cut off.

The best thing that we can do for this nascent revolution is exactly what we are doing now. Which is nothing, Achmadinejad is going to need to up the violence to put this down. And as long as we and the rest of the western world sit back as neutral observers we increase the chances of police and military units refusing orders.

In short, if there is a perception of the government being put at risk by outside or criminal forces the police and military will do exactly what they are told. If there is no risk they will have more opportunity to question their orders to open fire on their own people.

Oh this is fun. Couldn't even get this development in to my just finished sunday commentary...

At least it sets the stage...

Code_Archeologist: He is a very liberal Shiite holy man in Iran, and unfortunately not a member of the Iranian Guardian Council, which makes the decisions for the government of Iran.

^what he said, sadly. Not News.

Wiki

Well, isn't this interesting!

namatad: does rigging include deciding WHO gets to be on the ballot in the first place, or can anyone be a candidate?
including atheists and women?

nah, didnt think so
/got to love fake democracies

Ask any American candidate for office who doesn't have a (D) or an (R) after his/her name.

Sir Cumference the Flatulent: nah, didnt think so
/got to love fake democracies

Ask any American candidate for office who doesn't have a (D) or an (R) after his/her name.

Wow...that was a sick burn!

/and true

Code_Archeologist: I put it at about one in ten. Personal firearm ownership is about 5.7 firearms per 100 people, so for a civil war to trigger there will need to be multiple military divisions turning on the government or police forces refusing to follow orders. Otherwise the central Iranian government will be able to put down the insurrection very quickly.

unless we have CIA people inside with AKs buried somewhere and can channel them into the movement.
this is something the CIA is usually pretty good at.

It was. Hundreds of supporters are arrested, including the Ayatollah's own daughter

That's going to make for an awkward Ramadan.

Ahmalittleteapot got fatwa'd? Does this mean he gets a date with Padma Lakshmi now?

Hobodeluxe: Code_Archeologist: I put it at about one in ten. Personal firearm ownership is about 5.7 firearms per 100 people, so for a civil war to trigger there will need to be multiple military divisions turning on the government or police forces refusing to follow orders. Otherwise the central Iranian government will be able to put down the insurrection very quickly.

unless we have CIA people inside with AKs buried somewhere and can channel them into the movement.
this is something the CIA is usually pretty good at.

You don't need guns if the regular army turns to the people. Nothing kills the morale of regular armies faster than having to fire into crowds of protestors, if it comes to that.

006andahalf: You don't need guns if the regular army turns to the people. Nothing kills the morale of regular armies faster than having to fire into crowds of protestors, if it comes to that.

That almost killed the Tiananmen crackdown. A lot of the soldiers were rural peasants and you could see in their eyes that they were confused and scared about what was happening. Something happened between the time the army pulled back and the final crackdown. I suspect some officers were "reassigned" and replaced with ones less sympathetic to the students' cause.

Mentat: Something happened between the time the army pulled back and the final crackdown.

They deployed troops who weren't local to the area, so they didn't have conflicted sympathies.

Nutcase: I think it's time for Israel to turn the rest of the Middle East into a big glass parking lot.

Sure whatever, I'm sick of hearing about the whole region. As long as they remember to send one of those bombs straight up.

Will we still be able to drill for oil through the glass?

pnjunction: As long as they remember to send one of those bombs straight up.

You want them to nuke God?

Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei

I would subscribe to his newsletter

WTFDYW: Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei

I would subscribe to his newsletter

Ditto. He sounds like a pretty level-headed Ayatollah. Hope most of Iran follows his teachings.

Joystk: WTFDYW: Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei

I would subscribe to his newsletter

Ditto. He sounds like a pretty level-headed Ayatollah. Hope most of Iran follows his teachings.

I don't. I mean, he's a step up from the current ayatollah, but it would be even better to have NO Ayatollah.

I mean if they get to reshape things, I would like to see them remove religion and politics.

I doubt it though, because it looks like the leadership for the opposition are Rafsanjani and Mousavi, and they're down with theocracy.. just not in it's current hardliner form.

Again, it's a step up, but it's not the best.

/Ideally.. It'll be the United Federation of Planets, and they switch their nuclear program to a space one.. and develop teleporters.. yeah...

DamnYankees: There's something happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear.

/can't be lamer

there's a man with a gun over there
telling me i got to beware

Persepolis: Joystk: WTFDYW: Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei

I would subscribe to his newsletter

Ditto. He sounds like a pretty level-headed Ayatollah. Hope most of Iran follows his teachings.

I don't. I mean, he's a step up from the current ayatollah, but it would be even better to have NO Ayatollah.

I mean if they get to reshape things, I would like to see them remove religion and politics.

I doubt it though, because it looks like the leadership for the opposition are Rafsanjani and Mousavi, and they're down with theocracy.. just not in it's current hardliner form.

Again, it's a step up, but it's not the best.

/Ideally.. It'll be the United Federation of Planets, and they switch their nuclear program to a space one.. and develop teleporters.. yeah...

True... Theocracies usually aren't the best way of running societies in my opinion. Well, hopefully this will resolve itself peacefully and with something done about this 'election'.

Still trying (for curiosity) to track down the provincial vote count. It was apparently released at one point through Iranian official news media at: <http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98100&sectionid=351020101>

However, that info has hit the proverbial memory hole. Anyone have suggestions for where I might find a surviving cache or other source for the alleged provincial vote breakdown?

Code_Archeologist: Background note on Grand Ayatollah Yousof Sanei. He is a theological scholar who declared that suicide bombing, nuclear weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction are haram. In other words forbidden, like eating pork, for Muslims. He has also stated that women in Islam are equal to men, and sincere followers of other religions have just as much right to Paradise as a sincere Muslim.

He is a very liberal Shiite holy man in Iran, and unfortunately not a member of the Iranian Guardian Council, which makes the decisions for the government of Iran.

Which is why his outright and declared defiance and schism from the traditional leadership is such a big deal.

Persepolis: I doubt it though, because it looks like the leadership for the opposition are Rafsanjani and Mousavi, and they're down with theocracy.. just not in it's current hardliner form.

Baby steps man, baby steps. We'll take what we can get.

If it is true that the mullahs are bringing in Arab Hezbollah to do the dirty work that the regular Persian police officer won't do, then that is just another in a long line of stupid decisions that will just further enrage the protesters and might actually cause an increase in support for the protesters amongst the older generation.

KaponoFor3: Persepolis: I doubt it though, because it looks like the leadership for the opposition are Rafsanjani and Mousavi, and they're down with theocracy.. just not in it's current hardliner form.

Baby steps man, baby steps. We'll take what we can get.

If it is true that the mullahs are bringing in Arab Hezbollah to do the dirty work that the regular Persian police officer won't do, then that is just another in a long line of stupid decisions that will just further enrage the protesters and might actually cause an increase in support for the protesters amongst the older generation.

Since I've been hitting the books very hard about the Russian Revolution lately, my judgements are a bit influenced by some of that, but Rafsanjani's position is not different really from the reformists in most revolutions. They rarely take the radical line for fear that either it won't work and they'll be executed or that the hungry masses will eat them too in their fury to throw down all signs of the old regime.

well this just keeps getting more and more interesting. I wonder how long CNN will keep paying attention to it.

Weaver95: well this just keeps getting more and more interesting. I wonder how long CNN will keep paying attention to it.

Oh, so they actually started? Took 'em long enough.

Ninety seconds every four hours.