Unemployment lags behind the actual economic situation. Remember that all the people who lost their jobs were still employed through the first phases of the recession. It will be some time before they all find jobs after it ends, too.

Real unemployment is already over 10%. They don't count anyone who fell off the rolls or works for him/herself.

Aeonite: Real unemployment is already over 10%. They don't count anyone who fell off the rolls or works for him/herself.

Or who is too lazy to get a job.

Michigan's unemployment is at 13%. Wake up subby.

We laugh @ you.

Its hard to tell how hihAeonite: Real unemployment is already over 10%. They don't count anyone who fell off the rolls or works for him/herself.

There's no telling how many people are unemployed right now. If you take employable ages to be from 18-60, and workers able to work, it will always be around 20% by default, thanks to all the homeless people, freeloaders, housewives/househusbands, un-reported workers, etc. I'd say we're up to about 30 or 40% right now.

Submitter: Good news: Recession to End This Year. Bad news: Unemployment Will Hit Nearly 10%

"End." You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

/I know, I know, unemployment lags, etc.

You know what America needs?




\Muy caliente

But, as always, remember this: The Labor Department does not count as unemployed those who have simply given up looking for work, so the actual number of unemployed is higher by some percentage.

Damn dawg. Keep hope alive, playaz!

Won't the recession have ended because we'll be in a full-on depression at that point.

/Waiting for the powers-that-be to redefine depression so we never officially enter one.

So in other words, employment is 90%.

I likes them odds.

Well, isn't that some wishful thinking...

justafarkingchef: Michigan's unemployment is at 13%. Wake up subby.

We're at 13% in Oregon too, I believe. At least down in the southern part.

Just your friendly reminder.

Recessions are defined as the GDP is shrinking. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Meaning, it will take approximately 6 moths after the end of the recession for unemployment to stop increasing.

Also, since we aren't nationalizing our zombie banks, we will have VERY slow growth out of the recession. Good news is that the CDO and MBS bullshiat that goes us into this mess will mature sometime in the next 2-3 years. We won't have to wait until the housing market recovers or until the de-leveraging finishes in order to get back to normal unemployment rates. Don't expect unemployment to hit 5% until 2011 at the earliest. That's about as an optimistic projection as there is (the CBO is all unicorns and daisies when it comes to it's projections, most economists are less optimistic).

Anyone who was alive in the States in the mid 80s knows what's coming. Homelessness and crime are going to soar. You think there's a homeless problem, you haven't seen anything yet.

Get a job, dumbass.

The Predictions Have Never Been Wrong Before!

justafarkingchef
Michigan's unemployment is at 13%. Wake up subby.

Michigan
12.0%(p) in Feb 2009

Citation: http://www.bls.gov/lau/

Unemployment is a lagging indicator of a recession. This means that even once we are out of the recession, unemployment rates may not fall for months or even a year.

/TAed Labor Economics briefly this semester.

Boy, am I glad I'm graduating in 35 days

frostyservant: "End." You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Inconceivable!

On another note: where I work just fired 5 more people in my department...while hiring 15 others. At least We are turning around Slowly...

The End is Near: If the recession is going to end this year, I'll buy a year's TF subscription to the first person who can put together a solid reason why (and assuming they turn out to be correct).

"Because it's always gotten better" is not a solid reason.

My analysis: This is far from over and the other shoe has yet to drop (further waves of subprime defaults, continuing unemployment dropping consumer spending power begetting further unemployment, credit card defaults continuing to rise).

This bubble was built on a house of cards with every single aspect of our credit markets extended to the hilt to finance it. It will not just get better through wishful thinking. Our financial over-extension makes Rome's look like child's play.

Prove me wrong.



I agree 100%. I believe that inflation will keep the DOW at odds at above 6000, but the DOW is not the economy. Ultimately, bare essentials are going to become much tougher to come by and we will be forced into a much lower standard of living.

Dialectic: justafarkingchef
Michigan's unemployment is at 13%. Wake up subby.

Michigan
12.0%(p) in Feb 2009

Citation: http://www.bls.gov/lau/

wait until the march/april numbers come out. In some counties it's upward of 16%.

Blaxabbath: Won't the recession have ended because we'll be in a full-on depression at that point

By definition,we are in a depression. A market panic based recession, that is directly caused by a banking crisis, that leads into a deflationary spiral. It destroys all value it finds.

The good news is, we now know what to do to prevent the depression from becoming uncontrollable. The bad news, it's still going to suck really bad for any family hit directly by it.

The Fed is keeping the economy alive right now and it's the only thing standing between what we are seeing now and full blown bank runs destroying all the wealth in the nation.

Good thing I've always wanted to be a boxcar hobo.

There are also a gajillion people who were never on the rolls to begin with. This includes nightclub staff or, really, any slightly shady business that pays entirely in tips or cash payouts from the drawer every night. I spent a couple of years arguing with the IRS over this. There are thousands of us. And believe me, they are the first to lose their gigs in an economic crisis.

/just sayin'

//also...musicians

fernandez
Boy, am I glad I'm graduating in 35 days

the umployment rate is Massachusets is 7.8%(p) in Feb 2009. Hapy job-hunting!

Citation: http://www.bls.gov/lau/

With an open-ended pay cut in the form of ever-increasing unpaid vacation time, I still have a job but would consider myself at least 10% unemployed. The company cleverly makes the policy so that you can't claim unemployment benefits. However, it is still better than looking for work. I still feel the pain from the last time.

fernandez: Boy, am I glad I'm graduating in 35 days

Oh hey, me too. Thank god for my parents' basement.

Stay Cool Babylon: nightclub staff... are the first to lose their gigs in an economic crisis.

I would think that getting people drunk would be a growth industry these days.

Renowned transvestite sexologist: Just your friendly reminder.

Recessions are defined as the GDP is shrinking. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Meaning, it will take approximately 6 moths after the end of the recession for unemployment to stop increasing.

Also, since we aren't nationalizing our zombie banks, we will have VERY slow growth out of the recession. Good news is that the CDO and MBS bullshiat that goes us into this mess will mature sometime in the next 2-3 years. We won't have to wait until the housing market recovers or until the de-leveraging finishes in order to get back to normal unemployment rates. Don't expect unemployment to hit 5% until 2011 at the earliest. That's about as an optimistic projection as there is (the CBO is all unicorns and daisies when it comes to it's projections, most economists are less optimistic).

Anyone who was alive in the States in the mid 80s knows what's coming. Homelessness and crime are going to soar. You think there's a homeless problem, you haven't seen anything yet.



and

We'll definitely get out of a recession, and debt....we need 7% inflation for the next like......15 years.


So we got that going for us....which is nice.

fernandez: Boy, am I glad I'm graduating in 35 days

Hey! So am I! Did you major in something where the industry is running itself into the ground, too?

/journalism major
//good grief

"Recession to End This Year" Good, I'm ready for 2010. This '09 economy sucks.

justafarkingchef

wait until the march/april numbers come out. In some counties it's upward of 16%.

Man, and to think I just watched Roger and Me. I guess that things just don't get better as time goes by.

Contractors and businesses around here are going Chapter 11 left and right, so this is not ending this year. And, by the time the economy starts to get back in gear peak oil (new window) will put the nail in the coffin. We need to build a new economic model, get smaller, or we are doomed.

No Such Agency: Stay Cool Babylon: nightclub staff... are the first to lose their gigs in an economic crisis.

I would think that getting people drunk would be a growth industry these days.

Historically, liquor stores, strip clubs, and movie theaters do well in deep recessions. People need cheap ways to escape reality for a while.

17% when I live now. The competition for a McDonald's patty flipper boy job is cut-throat. 17% and if you figure in all the old, decrepit folks, the lazy and the kids, it's one big party all week long!

No Such Agency: Stay Cool Babylon: nightclub staff... are the first to lose their gigs in an economic crisis.

I would think that getting people drunk would be a growth industry these days.

While true, that applies to your neighborhood pub, only. Tourist traps, glitzy clubs, and other risky ventures? Not so much.

Most of the guys I know working at neighborhood joints are still pulling in $200 a day, plus the $50 or so they get paid from the drawer. They laugh at bartenders and say that we're wasting our potential. Whatever.

/wishes he was still a bartender
//bad lifestyle, but sitting at a desk? Really?

*where=when

The End is Near: Their only tool at this point is to print money

First, that's not their only tool.

Second, that's an exaggeration, at best. In terms of affects on the economy, asset backed loans function FAR differently than just printing money and giving it away. The only quantitive easing done was via the FDIC, and it amounts less than one percent of the GDP.

With the current FED policy, hyper inflation is NOT a risk.

Dialectic: fernandez
Boy, am I glad I'm graduating in 35 days

the umployment rate is Massachusets is 7.8%(p) in Feb 2009. Hapy job-hunting!

Citation: http://www.bls.gov/lau/

Dunkin' Donuts is always hiring



Bobby Teenager: fernandez: Boy, am I glad I'm graduating in 35 days

Hey! So am I! Did you major in something where the industry is running itself into the ground, too?

/journalism major
//good grief

You know it

We'll be just like Europe!

The epic fail that is Keynesian economics will create a depression.

This is bad news... For Obama

/oblig

godofusa.com: The epic fail that is Keynesian economics will create a depression.

Thank you, Nostradamus.

Is FARK.com hiring?

I have a job, and you can too.

/1-800-550-ARMY
//www.goarmy.com
///"Service guarantees citizenship"

Our unemployment is already pass 10 percent.

You have to look deeper into the numbers. Try 13.9% (Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6) plus all the people who cant find jobs that have not entered or have been out of the workforce.

You're looking at 20%.

No Such Agency: Stay Cool Babylon: nightclub staff... are the first to lose their gigs in an economic crisis.

I would think that getting people drunk would be a growth industry these days.

Well yeah, but they're drinking mouthwash under a bridge, so there's not a lot of economic stimulus from it.