You've seen plywood sets that look like the inside. Our beryllium sphere is... is wire with plaster around it. And our digital conveyor is... it's Christmas tree lights. It's a decoration. It's all fake. Just like me.

But why...?

In before warmongering.

so when does Israel do their preemptive strike?

notmtwain: You've seen plywood sets that look like the inside. Our beryllium sphere is... is wire with plaster around it. And our digital conveyor is... it's Christmas tree lights. It's a decoration. It's all fake. Just like me.

But why...?

Let's get out of here before they kill Guy!

1000 MW?

Thats not even enough to power a DeLorean.

1.21 Gigawatts!!!

TheBushwhacker: 1000 MW?

Thats not even enough to power a DeLorean.

1.21 GJigawatts!!!

FTFY

Headso: so when does Israel do their preemptive strike?

When they are ready to be the new world pariah and face economic sanctions. Or when they are ready to pay for the ensuing madness that will erupt in the Persian Gulf as Iran retaliates against us and our allies in the region.

notmtwain: You've seen plywood sets that look like the inside. Our beryllium sphere is... is wire with plaster around it. And our digital conveyor is... it's Christmas tree lights. It's a decoration. It's all fake. Just like me.

But why...?

"Why did it stop at 1 second?"
"Because it always stopped at 1 second on the show."

by Grabthar's hammer....

While I don't want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, I have a feeling they'd only be able to figure out a North Korea style detonation - one with an equal explosive power as a fart and a lighter.

I see you managed to get your shirt off!

No, no you didn't fix that for me. :D

Only pronounced "Jiggawatt"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt

ZachF81: While I don't want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, I have a feeling they'd only be able to figure out a North Korea style detonation - one with an equal explosive power as a fart and a lighter.

They could at least make a uranium bullet style design, aka 'little boy'.

after all, we did it with 1940's level tech. Iran's tech is even more advanced, and they have the foreknowledge of what actually it takes to build such a device.

I love how they told the West they would stop IED attacks in Iraq if they dropped sanctions over the nuclear programme. Link (new window)

ZachF81: While I don't want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, I have a feeling they'd only be able to figure out a North Korea style detonation - one with an equal explosive power as a fart and a lighter.

i dunno - i bet if you had a team of 20 intelligent engineers and 5 or so physicists who understood nuclear physics... All you would need is weaponized material to put inside it. I suspect that a detonating device for the atomic stuff would be easy to figure out.

Infact - i dont understand how it would be THAT hard to build a secret bunker capable of refining isotopes... Just find an existing airplane hanger and start diggin. If money is no object (and to Iranian crazies its likely not) you could bring almost all mats in without anyone noticing.

Would it be difficult? I dunno - it seems to me that it might be hard for someone to do if their own government was on their backs but as for a government itself?

Silovik: I love how they told the West they would stop IED attacks in Iraq if they dropped sanctions over the nuclear programme. Link (new window)

Nice link. Also worth nothing from that article:

Quoting Iranian and American officials, the program also says Tehran cooperated closely with the U.S. to oust the Taliban in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, even providing intelligence information to help with bombing raids.

Hillary Mann, a senior official under former U.S. President George W. Bush, told the BBC how one Iranian military official "unfurled the map on the table and started to point to targets that the U.S. needed to focus on".

Iran's then president Mohammad Khatami was reportedly willing to help get rid of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, saying he was also Iran's enemy.

But relations reportedly soured when Bush labeled Iran part of the "axis of evil" in 2002.

The former third-highest ranking official at the U.S. State Department, Nicholas Burns, told the documentary: "We had a very threatening posture towards Iran for a number of years. It didn't produce any movement whatsoever."

Persepolis: Silovik: I love how they told the West they would stop IED attacks in Iraq if they dropped sanctions over the nuclear programme. Link (new window)

Nice link. Also worth nothing from that article:

Quoting Iranian and American officials, the program also says Tehran cooperated closely with the U.S. to oust the Taliban in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, even providing intelligence information to help with bombing raids.

Hillary Mann, a senior official under former U.S. President George W. Bush, told the BBC how one Iranian military official "unfurled the map on the table and started to point to targets that the U.S. needed to focus on".

Iran's then president Mohammad Khatami was reportedly willing to help get rid of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, saying he was also Iran's enemy.

But relations reportedly soured when Bush labeled Iran part of the "axis of evil" in 2002.

The former third-highest ranking official at the U.S. State Department, Nicholas Burns, told the documentary: "We had a very threatening posture towards Iran for a number of years. It didn't produce any movement whatsoever."

Yah, that is a smart point, and I would bank huge money that alongside the surge/ reining in al-Sadr was some strenuous work by unnamed state department/intelligence guys to make some deals with Iran.

I just though it was funny that they are pitching the idea wholesale to diplomats right now.

It is a good deal, and would provide tremendous clout to American projects in Iraq to have Iran pulling in some of their guys in the area, and possibly test the waters to see how much Iran is able to do so. I mean, you aren't going to stop the nuclear projects altogether, possibly hinder weapons production, but not the actual reactors, so why not? Add caveats that the deals will be only for a peaceful nuclear programme and they make sure weapons/cash aren't flowing into Iraq. Not to mention it just puts them into equal footing and gains access to a lot of intel, such as pitching Iranians for info on say Russia or China or India etc.

If it fails what has either side really lost? If anything Iran has more to lose by looking like they are selling out Shiites in Iraq for their own ambitions.

Silovik: If it fails what has either side really lost? If anything Iran has more to lose by looking like they are selling out Shiites in Iraq for their own ambitions.

Could be. This whole thing could be Iran going with the getting blamed for IED attacks.

Train of though: "well, if I'm going to be blamed and demonized for IED attacks, I might as well try to use it as a barganing chip"

Then getting the sanctions lifted, but not having any authority to decline the amount of attacks on coalition troops.

This what I see happening.

Saudi Arabia: Hello Israel, yes it looks like Iran is building Nuclear power.

Israel: We know.

SA: You know we don't like you guys much...hey whats that over in the UAE.

I: Gotcha.


Israeli planes bomb Nuke plant.

World: Oh that was a bad bad Israel.

Iran: Fark.

oh that's so sweet! they named their nuclear plant after their favourite former US president. as a tribute i'm sure...

Reisdash: oh that's so sweet! they named their nuclear plant after their favourite former US president. as a tribute i'm sure...

That plant and its name were in existence back when the Shah was in power and they were trying to build a nuclear plant. Back when Iran going nuclear was a smart and logical thing because they could really use it. Now, apparently to some, they have no need for nuclear power.

Persepolis: Silovik: If it fails what has either side really lost? If anything Iran has more to lose by looking like they are selling out Shiites in Iraq for their own ambitions.

Could be. This whole thing could be Iran going with the getting blamed for IED attacks.

Train of though: "well, if I'm going to be blamed and demonized for IED attacks, I might as well try to use it as a barganing chip"

Then getting the sanctions lifted, but not having any authority to decline the amount of attacks on coalition troops.

That's possible too, I would think that both sides would understand what is in the realm of reasonable expectations of what can be done in the chance of an agreement, I mean Iran can't halt attacks all together, but, and I am operating under the assumption that they control a lot of the means to bring in sophisticated IED's like the ones that toss molten copper through armour, can halt the growing complexity of IEDs and supply intel. On the otherside, Obama can't publicly embrace Iran's nuclear goals, it would be the easing of sanctions with ongoing inspections fulfillment, and an easily given promise that Israel won't be allowed airspace to strike.

Silovik: I am operating under the assumption...

The reason we need to get into further diolouge with Iran is just this. Everything regarding them is an assumption.

MS paint? are they CHARGIN THEIR PLUTONIUM RODS!?


/got nothin.

Persepolis: Silovik: I am operating under the assumption...

The reason we need to get into further diolouge with Iran is just this. Everything regarding them is an assumption.

Agreed, it's hard to get accurate information about Iran, too many parties interested in promoting imagery over accuracy, but I want to go some day and travel around Turkey and Iran, specifically to the blue mosque, and fittingly, Persepolis.

Silovik: Iran, specifically to the blue mosque, and fittingly, Persepolis

Persepolis is cool from a historical standpoint, but I would reccomend Tehran and Isfahan.

Tehran for the culture/people/youth/hip spots
Esfahan for the architecture/crafts/doodads

Also, Tehran for the food, I should mention that.

Silovik: Agreed, it's hard to get accurate information about Iran, too many parties interested in promoting imagery over accuracy, but I want to go some day and travel around Turkey and Iran, specifically to the blue mosque, and fittingly, Persepolis.

Same. Tear down that wall and I'm there. I was just having this conversation with my coworkers earlier. For whatever reason, I think the American populace is a little wiser now than they were four years ago. Couldn't imagine then talking to coworkers about going there. Perhaps the word has finally gotten out that the people there aren't *totally* evil.

Persepolis: Silovik: Iran, specifically to the blue mosque, and fittingly, Persepolis

Persepolis is cool from a historical standpoint, but I would reccomend Tehran and Isfahan.

Tehran for the culture/people/youth/hip spots
Esfahan for the architecture/crafts/doodads

Also, Tehran for the food, I should mention that.

I have actually heard that Tehran has a lot of metalheads, and we get along no matter what religion/culture you come from.

Actually, I was thinking about maybe going to teach English after grad school, is that even a viable option?

wolvernova:
Perhaps the word has finally gotten out that the people there aren't *totally* evil.

The evil stuff is nonsense, Tehran is a lot safer then say Algiers or Bogata.

They better be careful, they wouldn't want their reactor to create a race of giant mutant animals

Silovik: I have actually heard that Tehran has a lot of metalheads, and we get along no matter what religion/culture you come from.

Actually, I was thinking about maybe going to teach English after grad school, is that even a viable option?

Search youtube and you'll find clips of underground metal concerts there. And as far as teaching English there, we still have people over there from before the revolution teaching English, so that shouldn't be a problem for you.

Silovik: I have actually heard that Tehran has a lot of metalheads, and we get along no matter what religion/culture you come from.

ah, but do Iranian Death metal and black metal fans get along?

Silovik: I have actually heard that Tehran has a lot of metalheads

\m/

Totally, I have a bunch of links to Iranian bands at home. Suprisingly awesome metal/rock scene over there.

Silovik: Actually, I was thinking about maybe going to teach English after grad school, is that even a viable option?

Sure. I wouldn't, but hey, whatever works for you.

Persepolis: Totally, I have a bunch of links to Iranian bands at home. Suprisingly awesome metal/rock scene over there.

Hypernova is pretty popular. They were touring around the U.S. a year or two ago:

Link (new window)

globalwarmingpraiser: This what I see happening.

Saudi Arabia: Hello Israel, yes it looks like Iran is building Nuclear power.

Israel: We know.

SA: You know we don't like you guys much...hey whats that over in the UAE.

I: Gotcha.


Israeli planes bomb Nuke plant.

World: Oh that was a bad bad Israel.

Iran: Fark.

Yeah... I'm going with THIS!

Israel is already the UN's whipping boy. Islamic nations depend on it to keep their populace focused outward on the evil Jews and not inward on their own crippling poverty, religious repression and sandy vaginae. Meanwhile, none want to see a nuclear Iran.

Everyone will yell, the UN will pass a resolution, Iran will make a big stink about the three night watchmen killed and Israel will hunker down for a few new rockets out of Gaza. Then Angelina and Brad will adopt an orphan from Sierra Leone, and everyone will forget about the smoldering crater in Iran.

wolvernova: Persepolis: Totally, I have a bunch of links to Iranian bands at home. Suprisingly awesome metal/rock scene over there.

Hypernova is pretty popular. They were touring around the U.S. a year or two ago:

Link (new window)

In fact, they're playing at the DC-9 on March 12th. You should go see them, they're pretty good.

Be careful. He has been drinking.

wolvernova: wolvernova: Persepolis: Totally, I have a bunch of links to Iranian bands at home. Suprisingly awesome metal/rock scene over there.

Hypernova is pretty popular. They were touring around the U.S. a year or two ago:

Link (new window)

In fact, they're playing at the DC-9 on March 12th. You should go see them, they're pretty good.

If I was an Iranian Band, I'd want to be in a band called The Reactors.

FTFA: Substitute fuel used in trial of facility that Tehran says is for energy, but west fears programme is front for building atomic weapon

As one of your lowly, simple American step-cousins, I have to ask you tea-drinkers from across the pond:

"programme"???

Really?

You can't just spell it "program" ... you know, like it sounds?

It's like you took the word and hung decorations on it. They don't change the pronunciation, but they do make it prettier to look at. I can imagine some poor kid misspelling it at a spelling bee.

Seriously... you folks need to learn English!

:D

/pip pip, cheerio, and all that rot!
//got nuthin' on the Iranian reactor issue
///figure the Israelis will eventually sabotage it or bomb it anyway

mikefinch: ZachF81: While I don't want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, I have a feeling they'd only be able to figure out a North Korea style detonation - one with an equal explosive power as a fart and a lighter.

i dunno - i bet if you had a team of 20 intelligent engineers and 5 or so physicists who understood nuclear physics... All you would need is weaponized material to put inside it. I suspect that a detonating device for the atomic stuff would be easy to figure out.

Infact - i dont understand how it would be THAT hard to build a secret bunker capable of refining isotopes... Just find an existing airplane hanger and start diggin. If money is no object (and to Iranian crazies its likely not) you could bring almost all mats in without anyone noticing.

Would it be difficult? I dunno - it seems to me that it might be hard for someone to do if their own government was on their backs but as for a government itself?

I don't know either, it can't be that difficult, although uranium hexaflouride is nasty stuff, so you need to practice pretty intense hazmat conditions. I think maybe getting a hold of enough Uranium ore to concentrate into weapons-grade U235 is probably the biggest problem, but I'm just a geophysicist, I just know where to find the ore. Maybe there are some other crazy factors here.

mikefinch: All you would need is weaponized material to put inside it. I suspect that a detonating device for the atomic stuff would be easy to figure out.

Kind of depends. You have two paths.

Path 1: U-235 bomb. Enrich Uranium for high-grade U-235 content. Royal pain in the ass. Even centrifuges, we're talking huge space and pretty massive power supply to the area. However, once you've got the U-235, building the bomb, particularly something not perfect-yield, is pretty much dead simple. This is what the guys at Oak Ridge worked on a lot.

Path 2: Pu-239 bomb. No enrichment necessary. Unenriched uranium in a graphite (or heavy water) reactor. That much could pretty much be done in an airplane hangar (Windscale and Hanford reactors weren't terribly more advanced than than hangars). Pull rods while Pu-239 is the major plutonium. So, that step is simple. But, building the bomb takes pretty precisely shaped conventional explosive charges and timing to compress the plutonium evenly and quickly enough. This is what the guys at Los Alamos took a lot of time doing.

I am not currently a rogue state, but I'd probably lean toward the latter just by guessing. North Korea and Iran seem to both aim for the former, so I'll assume they think it is the more promising path.

Judging from the photo, maybe Iran's nuke managers are just big Laker fans.

I agree with what you guys are saying - i just get sooooo confused as to why iran would set up a huge facility in the middle of the desert to produce weapons of mass destruction. As a rogue state wouldnt it make more sence to run these facilities in extremely hidden and populated areas?

Someone might notice allot of equpment being trucked out to the desert...

However if you built a huge mine underneath a brand new government office in tehran...

Bushehr isn't really problematic, as far as I can tell -- although there was a prior dispute where the Russians were publicly claiming that the Iranians were being slow to pay them. Power generation is not a bad thing, and Bushehr's been known for years -- it was started under Mohammed Reza.

More interesting is what they do with the spent fuel rods, how much they're using their enrichment cascades, and how to balance

- their obligations under NPT + Safeguards Agreement regarding disclosure and not pursuing weaponization

- restoration of trust, given their prior failure to disclose facilities at Natanz and Arak, and their clandestine procurement program e.g. centrifuge designs from A Q Khan's network

- their perfectly reasonable desire not to be dependent upon, say, Russia, for low-enriched uranium when they have their own uranium ore

- their also perfectly reasonable desire to not yield too much detail that would negatively impact national security e.g. targeting information

If there's a 'smoking gun', I haven't heard it -- not that I'd be in a position to. Situation continues to warrant caution, however, given the previous violations (failure to disclose), and the seeming opacity of their governance.

As for Israel, well, even Pres. Bush -- neither particularly friendly nor Tehran, nor particularly hostile towards Tel Aviv -- rebuffed Israel's desire to conduct air strikes flying through Iraqi airspace. Such strikes would probably not set back an Iranian program very long, would help justify am Iranian nuclear weapons program if they don't already have one, and would negatively impact (US, not just Israeli) relations with much of the rest of the world. That particular region of the world doesn't need to be more exciting.

Korovyov: Pres. Bush -- neither particularly friendly nor Tehran, nor particularly hostile towards Tel Aviv -- rebuffed Israel's desire to conduct air strikes flying through Iraqi airspace. Such strikes would probably not set back an Iranian program very long, would help justify am Iranian nuclear weapons program if they don't already have one, and would negatively impact (US, not just Israeli) relations with much of the rest of the world. That particular region of the world doesn't need to be more exciting.

Agreed. Whether because Bush knew it was insane to let Israel do what they wanted to or just asleep at the wheel as usual, it's probably the only non-disaster in his foreign policy. That is, to not let them unleash hell. That was my biggest concern going into the end of the administration. Israel will just have to suck it up because those potential nukes are only going to be developed to gain geopolitical leverage and threaten their Arab neighbors. Israel isn't a threat to Iran, yet would defeat them in the blink of an eye if a nuke is dropped on Israel. And that just won't happen.

Headso: so when does Israel do their preemptive strike?

18 months ago?