That's a really big difference, and I would think it has to be due to something more than simply cell phones.

Effect, subby, effect.

And cell phone polling was the same thing RON PAUL supporters claimed would result in stunning upsets in every state. Yeah.

/pessimist

whether the cellphone only crowd (read: younger people*) shows up remains to be seen.

*mostly.

Interesting. Good greenlight.

Bergyd: whether the cellphone only crowd (read: younger people*) shows up remains to be seen.

*mostly.

True.

On a somewhat related note, I've been hearing today that lines in LA for early voting are running 5+ hours. CA is not exactly a swing state. Granted, there are some close/heated local issues, but Angelenos willing to stand in line that long in an Obama-certain state may indicate that the old "these people don't show up" line of thinking may not be applicable this time around....

Cellphone-only isn't only younger people now. I really, really hope it's a reason support for Yes on Prop 8 in California is overestimated, though.

However, I'd like to see some of Nate Silver's predictions vindicated, not only for the good of the entire universe and all that, but because I'm addicted to polls and dissecting them obsessively. If we add up all the hours I've spent reading his site and polls, the ground game coverage and Road to 270 overviews, it probably adds up to DAYS during this past year.

In Nate Silver we trust. Everyone else - yes, even Chuck Todd - must publish internals.

On a somewhat related note, I've been hearing today that lines in LA for early voting are running 5+ hours. CA is not exactly a swing state. Granted, there are some close/heated local issues, but Angelenos willing to stand in line that long in an Obama-certain state may indicate that the old "these people don't show up" line of thinking may not be applicable this time around....

I'm guessing it's more because of Prop 8.

bobbette: However, I'd like to see some of Nate Silver's predictions vindicated, not only for the good of the entire universe and all that, but because I'm addicted to polls and dissecting them obsessively. If we add up all the hours I've spent reading his site and polls, the ground game coverage and Road to 270 overviews, it probably adds up to DAYS during this past year.

Same here. Since the election has gotten into full swing, the very first thing I do in the morning is check the polls.

Aarontology: bobbette: However, I'd like to see some of Nate Silver's predictions vindicated, not only for the good of the entire universe and all that, but because I'm addicted to polls and dissecting them obsessively. If we add up all the hours I've spent reading his site and polls, the ground game coverage and Road to 270 overviews, it probably adds up to DAYS during this past year.

Same here. Since the election has gotten into full swing, the very first thing I do in the morning is check the polls.

Me three. First thing I do is check the new poll from Kos. Then over to 538. Then Andrew Sullivan.

I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

There will still be plenty of numbers to read Wednesday and Thursday along with lots of gloating/biatching.

Friday on is when my daily routine will be completely farked up.

DamnYankees: I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

Hopefully celebrate.

Sir Roderick Glossop: DamnYankees: I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

Hopefully celebrate.

I actually have a root canal scheduled for Wednesday morning. Not sure what I was thinking.

DamnYankees: Me three. First thing I do is check the new poll from Kos. Then over to 538. Then Andrew Sullivan.

I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

I plan on reading conservative sites to revel in the gnashing of teeth and the lamentations of their women.

DamnYankees: I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

If all goes well you can drive by the houses with the McCain signs and laugh at the crushing disappointment and fear they will be experiencing.

DamnYankees: Sir Roderick Glossop: DamnYankees: I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

Hopefully celebrate.

I actually have a root canal scheduled for Wednesday morning. Not sure what I was thinking.

That is terribly unfortunate. Well, win or loose, the drugs will be nice :)

Lionel Mandrake: On a somewhat related note, I've been hearing today that lines in LA for early voting are running 5+ hours. CA is not exactly a swing state. Granted, there are some close/heated local issues, but Angelenos willing to stand in line that long in an Obama-certain state may indicate that the old "these people don't show up" line of thinking may not be applicable this time around....

Early voting in AZ lines were running 4 hours long. I'm glad I voted early...for Obama!

vartian: That is terribly unfortunate. Well, win or loose, the drugs will be nice :)

No drugs. Just a local anaesthetic.

jerry2a: If all goes well you can drive by the houses with the McCain signs and laugh at the crushing disappointment and fear they will be experiencing.

Sadly, I live in Greenwich Village. I'd have to take public transportation for quite a while to find a McCain supporter.

You know, when Ronald Regan was ahead 9 points, they said he'd blow out Mondale in an electoral landslide..



Oh..ah..never mind.

A telephone machine without wires?
You hippies have been snorting too much dope!!

DamnYankees: Aarontology: bobbette: However, I'd like to see some of Nate Silver's predictions vindicated, not only for the good of the entire universe and all that, but because I'm addicted to polls and dissecting them obsessively. If we add up all the hours I've spent reading his site and polls, the ground game coverage and Road to 270 overviews, it probably adds up to DAYS during this past year.

Same here. Since the election has gotten into full swing, the very first thing I do in the morning is check the polls.

Me three. First thing I do is check the new poll from Kos. Then over to 538. Then Andrew Sullivan.

I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

I have a tab folder that opens up 538, Politico, the New York Times, TPM, Andrew Sullivan, Daniel W. Drezner and Twitter's Elections 08 feed and it's the first thing I hit. After those, TF.

Wednesday morning I'm going to weed out my RSS feeds, delete a billion delicious links, download the content and campaign ads I really liked and shove them all in a folder and leave everything in it alone for a while. Wednesday evening I'm hoping there will be a lot of in-depth coverage of the GOTV operation that I can wade through.

I can't wait for analyses, scholarly work, tell-alls etc. about how the Obama campaign was run (if, knock on wood, Obama wins, remember to go vote, bring your friends, call 15 people you know.) I hope they filmed something like The War Room, or that a few of their top people will write books about exactly how the organization was run, and the decisionmaking process and their reactions to the events of the campaign. You can get a good idea from watching their actions, but I want more detail.

DamnYankees: I actually have a root canal scheduled for Wednesday morning. Not sure what I was thinking.

Jesus, dude. Reschedule the motherfarker. They'll understand. Besides, you don't want to go through that hung over, do you?

DamnYankees: I don't know what I'm going to do with myself Wednesday morning.

I scheduled Wednesday off from work, since I expect I'll be up very late on Tuesday, either laughing, or crying, or both. Drinking, regardless. One of the drawbacks of vote-by-mail is that, having cast my vote, there's nothing more I can do until the votes are counted. Oh, sure, I'm telling everyone I know to be sure to vote, but at least when we had election day polling place voting the wait between marking my ballot and seeing the results was never more than a few hours.

Hey all this is really off topic, but when are they going to start reporting results on Tuesday? Can they report state projections before polls close on the West coast, or can they project a winner a soon as polls close in that state?

jerry2a: If all goes well you can drive by the houses with the McCain signs and laugh at the crushing disappointment and fear they will be experiencing.

See if local printers will do you up a sticker (white on red) reading
NOT YOURS

pivazena: Hey all this is really off topic, but when are they going to start reporting results on Tuesday? Can they report state projections before polls close on the West coast, or can they project a winner a soon as polls close in that state?

No, they only start counting votes when the polls close. I believe the first polls close at 6 PM in Indiana. Might be 7. Not sure.

pivazena: Hey all this is really off topic, but when are they going to start reporting results on Tuesday? Can they report state projections before polls close on the West coast, or can they project a winner a soon as polls close in that state?

They can project any state as soon as the polls close in that state. They could theoretically call the election while voting is still going on in the Western time zones although usually it takes a little longer.

DamnYankees: No, they only start counting votes when the polls close. I believe the first polls close at 6 PM in Indiana. Might be 7. Not sure.

pivazena: Hey all this is really off topic, but when are they going to start reporting results on Tuesday? Can they report state projections before polls close on the West coast, or can they project a winner a soon as polls close in that state?

It's not off topic at all. Virginia should be the first swing state to report in around 8:45 ET. If Obama wins that it's essentially over and you can go to bed. If not, there's still Ohio pretty soon after that. Or so I've heard.

DamnYankees: That's a really big difference, and I would think it has to be due to something more than simply cell phones.

Well, it does seem like most people under 35 would be cell-phone only.

YOu are missing a huge chunk of the population wthout them.

35/married/3 kids. Only haz cell phone and an Obama volunteer. There are many of us "young" people with only cell phones these days you back woods farks.

Bergyd: whether the cellphone only crowd (read: younger people*) shows up remains to be seen.

*mostly.

Whether or not they show up as much as older voters is one question.

But no one disputes at least some of them will vote.

Leaving htem out of polls is still missing a lot.

That's what they've been saying since the beginning of the campaign. I'm surprised people forgot about that. I also heard reports a few months ago that some of the polls don't count first-time (i.e. young) voters. If you ignore the Republican Fear Machine for a second, you could see Obama having a couple of "effects" on his side that would cancel out the Bradley Effect some Republicans are secretly praying for.

/Young voter
//Looking to be up at 8 or so to vote.
///Don't bring shame to my age group, people.

BTW, Arizona won't even start counting the early ballots until Wednesday, and if they constitute 1/3rd of the vote, it could be Thursday before an official -- oh, who the hell am I kidding.

munchkinette: On a somewhat related note, I've been hearing today that lines in LA for early voting are running 5+ hours. CA is not exactly a swing state. Granted, there are some close/heated local issues, but Angelenos willing to stand in line that long in an Obama-certain state may indicate that the old "these people don't show up" line of thinking may not be applicable this time around....

I'm guessing it's more because of Prop 8.

If you think about it, its kinda funny how these type of Amendments are bringing out the vote more than it would otherwise. Often from people they don't want voting in the main election. Fail..

Bergyd: whether the cellphone only crowd (read: younger people*) shows up remains to be seen.

*mostly.

They'll be there. Or perhaps you've missed all the early voting numbers? Mostly young people taking advantage of early voting. Historic levels. Only old people vote on the 4th. And old people (having lost 40% of their retirement money recently) are voting Obama.

speedballtucker: DamnYankees: No, they only start counting votes when the polls close. I believe the first polls close at 6 PM in Indiana. Might be 7. Not sure.

Thanks for the map. Should be a fun night.

How many people responded to the telegraph polling?

Aarontology: the lamentations of their women

LOLConan!

/on Fark, nothing is obscure

If Obama wins PA, McCain is in trouble.

If Obama wins PA and VA, or OH, or FL, McCain is done.

I imagine that all is said and done by 8 or 9 on Tuesday. Then, I drink!

Straight To Hell: If Obama wins PA and VA, or OH, or FL, McCain is done.

Actually, if Obama wins *any* of those, McCain is basically done.

DamnYankees: No, they only start counting votes when the polls close. I believe the first polls close at 6 PM in Indiana. Might be 7. Not sure.

Anyone know when the early voting gets reported? Are they the first results released, and then the election day votes are added to them as they are counted, or what?

With this, combined with the early voting, there should be some pleasant surprises on Election Day.

Voted early myself. By mail, as we all do out here in the Oregon territory.

And-1: /on Fark, nothing is obscure

...especially after it's been covered by Robot Chicken ;)

Casanova.Frankensteir: DamnYankees: No, they only start counting votes when the polls close. I believe the first polls close at 6 PM in Indiana. Might be 7. Not sure.

Anyone know when the early voting gets reported? Are they the first results released, and then the election day votes are added to them as they are counted, or what?

Early votes are no different than any other votes. They begin to be counted when the polls close. They tend to be counted first because they don't need to be collected and prepared and stuff, but they don't start the counting until the polls close.

smooshie: Effect, subby, effect.

And cell phone polling was the same thing RON PAUL supporters claimed would result in stunning upsets in every state. Yeah.

/pessimist

Except RP supporters were looking for republicans and libertarians to come out in droves from behind their cell phones. They had no evidence to support that those people even existed other than various names posting on digg.com

Heres's something - how the fark are they going to do exit polling in states with early voting? Places like CO, NM, NC, and GA have had massive early voting, and polling only the folks who vote on the 4th is going to be a seriously bad sampling of voters. Will they even try?

I love 538 and want Nate to have my babies.

speedballtucker: DamnYankees: No, they only start counting votes when the polls close. I believe the first polls close at 6 PM in Indiana. Might be 7. Not sure.

Thanks for the map!

DamnYankees: Heres's something - how the fark are they going to do exit polling in states with early voting? Places like CO, NM, NC, and GA have had massive early voting, and polling only the folks who vote on the 4th is going to be a seriously bad sampling of voters. Will they even try?

I'm pretty sure they are already doing exit poling. The only things the media has trouble accounting for in predictions is the absentee ballots.