Well...that's good.

Gonna be tough to explain away all these polls if McCain pulls a Diebold squeaker.

Obama 54, McCain 41

If that's percent of the nationwide popular vote, that's good - but who has the other 5, Barr?

Of course, if that's the electoral vote total, then the other 443 would most certainly go to Ditka/Brasky.

McCain will win. I'm voting Obama.

Decided Wednesday to vote for Obama. Third parties have nothing to offer me this year. Shame on you Libertarian party.

They sure have been building the narrative for McCain winning Pennsylvania.

Of course, once McCain wins every single swing state and PA...it's gonna look odd.

Bergyd: Decided Wednesday to vote for Obama. Third parties have nothing to offer me this year. Shame on you Libertarian party.

Okay, no snark here, talk to me about the Libertarian party. All I ever hear is the opinion of hard-line gun nuts, and I am sure there is a more rational belief.

Those aren't their ages at all!

Bergyd: Shame on you Libertarian party.

barr really was a bit of a lame choice for them, and they really haven't made the power play for conservatives that they could have.

i've been voting for obama all along, but i agree with you in your sentiment.

Hmm, funny, Drudge doesn't seem to be mentioning this poll on his page.

Edsel: Hmm, funny, Drudge doesn't seem to be mentioning this poll on his page.

Meh, Matt Drudge is just a little too left-leaning for me.
For true fair and balanced coverage I turn to Rush Limbaugh, Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity or Bill O'Reilly.

Obama 54, McCain 41

And Hillary is 44.

As much as I would love those numbers to be true, I find them very unlikely.

GAT_00: As much as I would love those numbers to be true, I find them very unlikely.

Even if they are dead-on-balls accurate, they're meaningless.

Actually, looking back at 2004, almost every pollster predicted a Bush win except Fox and Marist. Gallup and ARG were deadlocked.

Of those who correctly called it, it looks like TIPP and Pew were dead on. Notably, this year Pew is calling a bigger Obama win than anybody else, while TIPP says it's a lot closer. CBS said 49-47 so they were pretty good too. The final RCP average margin was also pretty dead-on.

If that lead were to be applied to average polls from 538, i.e. take 7 points away from McCain in every state, this is what the election would look like:

I don't think anybody really knows what's going to happen on Tuesday. We are in uncharted territory on this one, with so many different things that could affect the outcome.

Vote early.

King Something: Obama 54, McCain 41

If that's percent of the nationwide popular vote, that's good - but who has the other 5, Barr?

Of course, if that's the electoral vote total, then the other 443 would most certainly go to Ditka/Brasky.

That son of a biatch?

Forget the predicted numbers... I like this summary of the election over at Outside the Beltway^

It shows just how far McCain would have to go to even get in range of winning the election in just a couple days. The map and numbers they provide aren't unique, but they do take the data most favorable to McCain and try to give him a scenario for winning, and they really can't come up with one

Easy enough to explain. On Tuesday, millions of would-be voters will be told, once they finally make it to the front of the line: "Sorry, looks like you're not registered to vote! Well... bye!"

Pollster graph: predicted vs actual popular vote percentages in 2000 and 2004, plus 2008 polling
2000: Gore's popular vote % minus Bush's popular vote %
-2% Predicted | 0.5% Actual (47.9% Bush-48.4% Gore)
Difference between predicted and actual: -2.5 points

2004: Kerry's popular vote % minus Bush's popular vote %
~-1.1% Predicted | -2.4% Actual (50.7% Bush-48.3% Kerry)
Difference between predicted and actual: 1.3 points

2008: Obama's popular vote % minus McCain's popular vote %
~6% Predicted (Obama ~50%-McCain ~44%)

Donald_McRonald: Pollster graph: predicted vs actual popular vote percentages in 2000 and 2004, plus 2008 polling
2000: Gore's popular vote % minus Bush's popular vote %
-2% Predicted | 0.5% Actual (47.9% Bush-48.4% Gore)
Difference between predicted and actual: -2.5 points

2004: Kerry's popular vote % minus Bush's popular vote %
~-1.1% Predicted | -2.4% Actual (50.7% Bush-48.3% Kerry)
Difference between predicted and actual: 1.3 points

2008: Obama's popular vote % minus McCain's popular vote %
~6% Predicted (Obama ~50%-McCain ~44%)

The saddest thing about that graph is that so many of us were deluded into thinking Kerry would win right up until the networks called it on election night.

Edsel: The saddest thing about that graph is that so many of us were deluded into thinking Kerry would win right up until the networks called it on election night.

I didn't think he would by the end, but I was hoping really farking hard he would.

Will "Jesus-land" revolt?

One can only hope.

2wolves: Will "Jesus-land" revolt?

One can only hope.

Thats the beauty of this victory - there won't be a Jesusland anymore. When states like VA, NC, MT, ND, GA, FL, IN, NM, and CO are all on the table for Obama, there ain't much left.

GAT_00: Edsel: The saddest thing about that graph is that so many of us were deluded into thinking Kerry would win right up until the networks called it on election night.

I didn't think he would by the end, but I was hoping really farking hard he would.

I really thought that he would right up until the bitter end. I put too much faith in electoral-vote.com, and they showed him at 280+ EV on the last two polling days.

Edsel: The saddest thing about that graph is that so many of us were deluded into thinking Kerry would win right up until the networks called it on election night.

The saddest thing are the people that bring up 2004 (Kerry) as the reason Obama is going to lose.

It's like comparing unicorn farts and apples.

Knight without armor: Gonna be tough to explain away all these polls if McCain pulls a Diebold squeaker.

I came here to say this.

I don't care about the polls damnit! Vote

Nah.

49% to 43%, Obama wins but without gaining atleast half of the national popular vote.

In terms of the electoral, the difference will be closer, but Obama will still pull out a victory.

DamnYankees: Thats the beauty of this victory - there won't be a Jesusland anymore. When states like VA, NC, MT, ND, GA, FL, IN, NM, and CO are all on the table for Obama, there ain't much left.

WTF is Jesusland?

That is so 2004.

2008 is "Real America" vs "Fake America"

Jeez, get your talking points bullshiat straight.

/Fake American

ramathorn83: Nah.

49% to 43%, Obama wins but without gaining atleast half of the national popular vote.

In terms of the electoral, the difference will be closer, but Obama will still pull out a victory.

How many people did *you* poll for this conclusion?

God I hope so! If that's true, we're looking at a 400+ EV blowout and a repudiation of Bush Conservatism and the GOP. They need it, they need to step back to sane policy.

Also, since the GOP are running against the Socialist Obama, would this give a mandate for Socialism by the American people?

God the GOP is dumb sometimes always.

bulldg4life: It's like comparing unicorn farts and apples.

Dude?

Unicorns DO fart apples.

I'm calling it for McCain based on my prediction of widespread GOP dirty tricks.

/My political prediction batting average overall is about .950.

MBK: WTF is Jesusland?

That is so 2004.

2008 is "Real America" vs "Fake America"

Jeez, get your talking points bullshiat straight.

/Fake American

But is Jesus real?

Whoa...political paradox...

PROUD


Ron & Fez Noon to 3.

ramathorn83: Nah.

49% to 43%, Obama wins but without gaining atleast half of the national popular vote.

In terms of the electoral, the difference will be closer, but Obama will still pull out a victory.

LOL, 8% missing?

Giving Barr and Nader a lot of credit are we?

wait, i just saw a poll that had mccain ahead 48 to 47.

now how you like me
suckers

Did they take this into consideration though?

Link (new window)

"...we don't know what the next president is going to face. If we choose someone with vision, someone with guts, with gravitas, who is connected to peoples lives and cares about making them better; if we choose someone to inspire us, then we'll be able to face what comes our way and achieve things that we can't imagine yet. It's gonna be hard."

Then we'll do what's hard.

/08ama

mynameismark: "...we don't know what the next president is going to face. If we choose someone with vision, someone with guts, with gravitas, who is connected to peoples lives and cares about making them better; if we choose someone to inspire us, then we'll be able to face what comes our way and achieve things that we can't imagine yet. It's gonna be hard."

Then we'll do what's hard.


/08ama

do this, mark

This poll is about as bad as Zogby that has McCain 48, Obama 47.

Mao-bama wins, but he won't pull more than 49% of the vote.

andrewagill: ramathorn83: Nah.

49% to 43%, Obama wins but without gaining atleast half of the national popular vote.

In terms of the electoral, the difference will be closer, but Obama will still pull out a victory.

How many people did *you* poll for this conclusion?

alostpacket: ramathorn83: Nah.

49% to 43%, Obama wins but without gaining atleast half of the national popular vote.

In terms of the electoral, the difference will be closer, but Obama will still pull out a victory.

LOL, 8% missing?

Giving Barr and Nader a lot of credit are we?

You betcha, there'll be quite a bit of disaffected voters who are unhappy with Obama and McCain.

mynameismark: Then we'll do what's hard.

Bartlet/Santos '08

Rant_Casey's_Rabies_Buffet: Knight without armor: Gonna be tough to explain away all these polls if McCain pulls a Diebold squeaker.

I came here to say this.

I don't think so. The conservative media and the McCain campaign have been writing the "McCain Upset" narrative for weeks now. if McCain wins, the headline on Drudge will read simply "Told You" and there will be much ink spilled writing about how flawed polling is and how biased the "liberal media" is. I don't think they have that far to go to make cover their asses.

Can someone explain why exit poll data is being released days before the election? Just giving out results the day of, is not acceptable because it influences later day activities.

Is that so they can say The Dems felt like they had it in the bag so they didn't show up on Tuesday, while the Repubs turned out in force to respond to the early democratic showing?

That's how to explain McCain winning the election.

/There ain't enough tinfoil in the world.

ramathorn83

Good call.

/Voted for Barr yesterday.

vartian:

The Libertarian party is a party which believes in small Federal government to the extreme. They believe that essentially all policy issues should be set by the individual states, and essentially all economic issues should be settled by the free market.

Their ideal United States gives the individual people lots of choices in the direction their lives take. (50 choices, to be exact, with each state deciding what is best for ITS constituency, therefore allowing somebody to move to another state and get a completely different facet of America).

The main purpose of the Federal government would be to maintain the military, uphold the rule of Constitutional law, and act in matters of foreign policy. No more, no less.

colon_pow: wait, i just saw a poll that had mccain ahead 48 to 47.

Show it to me. Use a reliable source.