Doesn't surprise me. I live in Arizona and 95% of the people I know are voting for Obama.

Wife's family lives in AZ -- they're voting Democratic for the first time ever.

oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please,

Happy Days are here again.

Now that would be the icing on the cake.

I have to say that I think this poll is probably a fluke for a number of reasons. Nonetheless, I think it would be really farking sweet if the Obama campaign takes the opportunity to announce that they're going to start running ads and sending surrogates to AZ. That would convince me to drop another fitty or so for Obama.

Edsel: I have to say that I think this poll is probably a fluke for a number of reasons.

I agree. Doesn't give a sample size either. +/- 4 seems to be a relatively large MoE.

Although my fingers are crossed.

AmySophieTrixie: Doesn't surprise me. I live in Arizona and 95% of the people I know are voting for Obama.

Same here.

I've been seeing big F-250 pickups with Obama stickers on them. WTF? It's beautiful. I said it many times before: John McCain only gets re-elected because it's the lazy choice because he's the incumbent. But people are pissed now.

Girl From The North Country: Now that would be the icing on the cake.

Just to be within the MoE in HIS OWN STATE has to sting. I hope he dies knowing how little we think of him. Such a small man.

I think its not so much that he's within the MoE, but that he's only at 44%. That's really low, even if it was 44-30 or something. That's a huge amount of undecideds for a state which knows McCain about as well as possible.

I'm embarrassed to say that I don't the answer to this question, but is anyone running against McCain for his AZ Senate seat? Or does he automatically get to keep that, or what?

Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, they've got McCain's chances of winning AZ at 100% and are projecting a 14 point win margin, with a 4.7 margin of error.

I'm going to chalk this poll up as a fluke or politically motivated.

ShawnDoc: Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, they've got McCain's chances of winning AZ at 100% and are projecting a 14 point win margin, with a 4.7 margin of error.

I'm going to chalk this poll up as a fluke or politically motivated.

Well, there has been very little polling of it, so I don't know how to judge that.

Tabatha Static: I'm embarrassed to say that I don't the answer to this question, but is anyone running against McCain for his AZ Senate seat? Or does he automatically get to keep that, or what?

He was re-elected in 2004 - he's not up again until 2010.

This is bad news...for Obama

...for McCain...who are we kidding?

I don't see McCain losing AZ, but winning it by single digits will still be insult upon injury.

Lionel Mandrake: I don't see McCain losing AZ, but winning it by single digits will still be insult upon injury.

This is hilarious, I was just having this conversation with my son and his friends. I knew there was talk that it was close here, but come on! It would be glorious if it actually happened. But I'll just take a clean overall win, and will gladly concede AZ, as long as Obama wins.

Vote, people, vote!!!

If the election is clearly going Obama's way on the East coast, then maybe many of the voters in AZ won't bother to fire up the Edsel to make the trip to the polls on election day - and McCain will lose because of poor turnout.

I don't think that's too much of a tinfoil hat thesis.

ShawnDoc: I'm going to chalk this poll up as a fluke or politically motivated.

Political motivation in my Daily Kos? It's more likely than you think...

Unbiased are we?

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Who is "Myers Research"?

Myers Research | Strategic Services is a full-service public opinion research firm specializing in electing Democrats at all levels and advancing progressive causes.

Since the firm was founded, we have won more races for Democrats in more states across the nation than any other polling firm in the country.

Oh yeah, no bias there! LOL!

How about "Grove Insight"?

Lisa Grove created Grove Insight because she was tired of seeing progressive candidates and causes stuck with outdated research methods, unintelligible reports and a one-size-fits-all approach to polling. In her view, there was simply too much at stake.

Get the Win
We win because we have a wealth of experience asking the right questions, the right way. With more than two decades of expertise assessing public attitudes toward a wide variety of issues, products and candidates, Grove Insight has built its reputation on distilling complicated issues into simple, coherent messages. Non-profit organizations, advocacy groups, labor unions, candidates for elected office, government entities, and corporations rely on Grove Insight's opinion research to determine the most effective message strategy that will increase public awareness of their issue in an era of information overload

You've got to be kidding! A push-poll firm dedicated to getting the progressive message out not biased?

This is pure desperation. Trying to suppress the Republican vote by insinuting that the election is hopeless is not a sign of strength on Obama's part.

Sir Roderick Glossop: ShawnDoc: I'm going to chalk this poll up as a fluke or politically motivated.

Political motivation in my Daily Kos? It's more likely than you think...

*sigh*

Poll was reported by Kos, not conducted by Kos

It does seem to be an outlier, but other polls (certainly not all) have McCain ahead by single digits too, with trends towards Obama (not steep enough for him to turn the state blue though, IMO).

/but go ahead and shoot the messenger. That usually changes the message, also.

already voted ... don't care :P

Doesn't hurt that Barry Goldwater's family has come out and said their for Obama.

Lionel Mandrake: /but go ahead and shoot the messenger. That usually changes the message, also.

Is that what you say when World Net Daily is linked as a source as well? And you have to admit, quoting pollsters whose stated mission is electing Democrats through push polls and controlling the message makes anything they say laughable on the face of it.

FlashHarry: oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please, oh please,

I lol'd

And so did my 10-month old, oddly enough..

Alien Robot: Lionel Mandrake: /but go ahead and shoot the messenger. That usually changes the message, also.

Is that what you say when World Net Daily is linked as a source as well?

Depends on who's poll they cite. First thing I did was check around to see other polls, then stated factually that this was an outlier, but other polls (but not all) do have Obama within single digits (but not as close as this one).

Was my "it's an outlier/Obama won't win AZ" not enough of a qualifier for you?

*whose

/dammit

SilentStrider: their

they're, even.

McCain has Obama right where he wants him. This race is running perfectly for McCain.

He always wins when he's the underdog. Right?

bobbette: McCain has Obama right where he wants him. This race is running perfectly for McCain.

He always wins when he's the underdog. Right?

Worked great in 2000.

bobbette: McCain has Obama right where he wants him. This race is running perfectly for McCain.

He always wins when he's the underdog. Right?

Is this where he reveals that the Straight Talk Express is now a fully-operational battle station and the rebellion will be crushed?

I live in AZ, and I don't think this is a battleground. It's going McCain.

I've already voted by mail for Obama though. Bad news...for Obama.

shivashakti: bobbette: McCain has Obama right where he wants him. This race is running perfectly for McCain.

He always wins when he's the underdog. Right?

Is this where he reveals that the Straight Talk Express is now a fully-operational battle station and the rebellion will be crushed?

I have altered Ashley Todd's face.

Pray I do not alter it further.

bobbette

I have altered Ashley Todd's face.

Pray I do not alter it further.

Nice. Well-played.

bobbette: McCain has Obama right where he wants him. This race is running perfectly for McCain.

He always wins when he's the underdog. Right?

He's got them right where he wants them.

Lionel Mandrake: Was my "it's an outlier/Obama won't win AZ" not enough of a qualifier for you?

since he ran away I guess it wasn't enough for him.

States like Arizona are very interesting in this race. There's a bunch of states assumed to be deep red that haven't actually been polled since September, often when Obama was not at the height he is right now.

When they do get a poll thrown at them, suddenly there's considerable shock when they poll way closer than expected. Montana, North Dakota. Georgia. Maybe now Arizona.

There could be a bunch of states that are poised to be shockers come election night and no one would even know until it happens.

McCain: the Republican McGovern?

(Last candidate to lose his home state.)

sunsawed: McCain: the Republican McGovern?

(Last candidate to lose his home state.)

Gore.

I don't think this headline has the word 'with' enough.

Considering how much he brags about not bringing pork back to AZ, I kind of surprised he's lasted this long. It is legitimately his job to bring federal funding to Arizona.

Let's face it, everyone hates pork - until they get a pile of it.

Facist + Daily Kos link = Head explode

ShawnDoc: Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, they've got McCain's chances of winning AZ at 100% and are projecting a 14 point win margin, with a 4.7 margin of error.

The most recent polls on FiveThirtyEight are from September (ASU from 9/27 and Rasmussen from 9/29). The market crashed in earnest in October. Obama really pulled ahead across the board in the wake of the crashed market:




(Source for graphs: electoral-vote.com)

I wouldn't be surprised if that shook things up a bit everywhere, including Arizona. If these new polls show surprising results, perhaps other pollsters will also rush in for a poll while Arizona's a story.

I'd guess they've NOT been polling much in Arizona. So be prepared for surprises.

Girl From The North Country: If the election is clearly going Obama's way on the East coast, then maybe many of the voters in AZ won't bother to fire up the Edsel to make the trip to the polls on election day - and McCain will lose because of poor turnout.

I don't think that's too much of a tinfoil hat thesis.

"Fire up the Edsel" LOL....... WIN!!!!!!

shivashakti:
Is this where he reveals that the Straight Talk Express is now a fully-operational battle station and the rebellion will be crushed?

Yeah, but it's been driving around in circles so much, that when it fires, it'll only shoot itself in the ass.... more

sunsawed: McCain: the Republican McGovern?

(Last candidate to lose his home state.)

-1 Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore

I think Arizona could have easily gone blue if McCain wasn't the Republican nominee (home-state advantage and all that). We did vote for Clinton after all. These numbers are encouraging, but I'll wait for the ASU poll on Monday. The last major polling in AZ was in September; tightening isn't all *that* surprising but this is a lot closer than many people expected.

/voting Obama in AZ.
//waiting for election day so I can get my sticker.

ShawnDoc: Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, they've got McCain's chances of winning AZ at 100% and are projecting a 14 point win margin, with a 4.7 margin of error.

I'm going to chalk this poll up as a fluke or politically motivated.

The last three polls from fivethirtyeight.com in Arizona were all in September. 9/13, 9/27, 9/29, and even then one of the polls had McCain only 7% ahead. Notice where the tracker has gone since September, and extrapolate.

What, seriously? I thought McCain had a solid grip here.

Well, I live in AZ, North Phoenix, and while I know my mom is likely voting Obama (The Tax Plan I showed her kinda sealed the deal I think), there are a LOT of old people in AZ, including my Grandmother (Speaking of which, I should ask her who's getting her vote)

/I has an Obama bumper sticker
//No problems so far.

ShawnDoc: Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, they've got McCain's chances of winning AZ at 100% and are projecting a 14 point win margin, with a 4.7 margin of error.

I'm going to chalk this poll up as a fluke or politically motivated.

Nate even said today that he hopes to see some new polling out of Arizona. Who knows where the race is there right now.

Kevin72: sunsawed: McCain: the Republican McGovern?

(Last candidate to lose his home state.)

-1 Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore

Funny, I remember Bush losing Connecticut in the 2004 elections.