Looks like a whole lot of making shiat up (no way I believe WV is more likely to go blue, let alone 5:1 more likely), but those odds are actually 1 in 20000 (and the math nazi in me says its 19999:1.

1% = 1 in 100
.1% = 1 in 1k
.01% = 1 in 10k
.005% = 1 in 20k

I just flopped a straight flush.

At that rate of gain, it will be only about 27.4 years until they're even. Then Zombie McCain will have a shot against Geezer Obama.

Nearly doubled!!!

Whoa...

On 538 they went from about 4% at the lowest to about 6% currently.

It is significant because as each day passes, his chances are reduced due to time running out. But his recent gains have been enough to keep him ahead of that curve, enough to even make a net gain. I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds 30% odds in the next week or so.

FarKnight: But his recent gains have been enough to keep him ahead of that curve

What do you think is causing these gains? An honest question, not trying to be snarky.

Mugato: Whoa...

McCain: We've met before, haven't we.
Voter: I don't think so. Where was it you think we met?
McCain: At the White House. Don't you remember?
Voter: No. No, I don't. Are you sure?
McCain: Of course. As a matter of fact, I'm there right now.
Voter: What do you mean? You're where right now?
McCain: At the White House.
Voter: That's farking crazy, man.
McCain: Call me. Dial the number. Go ahead.

dahmers love zombie: At that rate of gain, it will be only about 27.4 years until they're even. Then Zombie McCain will have a shot against Geezer Obama.

Change...my diaper.

Mugato: FarKnight: But his recent gains have been enough to keep him ahead of that curve

What do you think is causing these gains? An honest question, not trying to be snarky.

Races always tighten up at the end.

Mugato: Whoa...

Get over it dude. Dick Laurent is dead.

FarKnight: I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds 30% odds in the next week or so.

30%? For that to happen, information would have to come out that Obama once killed a man just to watch him die.

Even with McCain's "gains", he's still only moving up by about 0.5% a day and, as 538 has said, a lot of that appears to just be the result of Obama having already claimed almost every available "independent" voter left.

FarKnight: On 538 they went from about 4% at the lowest to about 6% currently.

I'm not really sure what yout point is here.

IIRC, about a week or two ago McCain had a ~10% change on 548. That slowly shrunk and then bobbed up and down a bit from between 4 and 6.

Hardly evidence McCain is getting a lot of momentum.

Mugato: What do you think is causing these gains? An honest question, not trying to be snarky.

It's a combination of noise and a few right-leaning undecideds breaking McCain's way, I'd imagine.

The race will tighten, make no mistake. But barring a terrorist attack there isn't enough time or enough undecideds to make it particularly close.

Is this some kid's project on statistics? Worthless.

McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

I was told there would be no math

Semi-Sane: McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

What are we going to have this time? Reverend Wright 3? Rezko Part II: Smear Boogaloo?

The Tony Danzas:
30%? For that to happen, information would have to come out that Obama once killed a man just to watch him die.


Hmmm... does he have any appearances scheduled in Reno before the election?

Semi-Sane: McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

Is he going to tell us that Obama is black? Seriously, if there were any dirt he should pull it out sooner than later. People are already voting early.

If they had any real dirt on Obama they'd pull it out now to cover for the embarrassing attempts to smear him so far.

Jon Snow: Mugato: What do you think is causing these gains? An honest question, not trying to be snarky.

It's a combination of noise and a few right-leaning undecideds breaking McCain's way, I'd imagine.

The race will tighten, make no mistake. But barring a terrorist attack there isn't enough time or enough undecideds to make it particularly close.

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

ayenull: Semi-Sane: McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

Is he going to tell us that Obama is black? Seriously, if there were any dirt he should pull it out sooner than later. People are already voting early.

Exactly. If Clinton couldn't dig up shiat, and the Republicans have been stuck repeating the Ayers, Rezko, and Wright lines which didn't work for Clinton, why should we think that there's any real usable dirt out there on him?

If they do have something, the longer they wait, the less it'll matter, as more people will have already voted (and the early voters are voting for Obama).

Semi-Sane: e week

Ah, bullshiat. McCain cares about this country.. No really he does. If there was serious dirt it would have talked about it from day one instead of risking this country electing someone who was a real terrorist or whatever. Either McCain is so weak on national security that he would tight lip information this important, or really isn't anything.

Semi-Sane: McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

So the simpering right-wing douchebags finally found the "whitey" tape, huh?

/I told Michelle to burn it
//she wants to run it every night in place of the news
///once she becomes First Babymomma

People will vote their fears. McCain will win.

LordJiro:

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

BARACK HUSSEIN BIN LADEN OBAMA PERSONALLY FLEW THE AIRPLANES INTO BOTH TOWERS OF THE TRADE CENTER AND THE PENTAGON HOW CAN WE TRUST A TERRORIST TO BE PRESIDENT ESPECIALLY A BLACK ONE AND HES UNAMERICAN TOO PROBABLY NOT EVEN A CITIZEN AND EVEN IF HE IS A CITIZEN HES STILL A MUSLIM SO IT DOESNT COUNT

I think there is a missing from that sentence.

ayenull: Semi-Sane: McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

Is he going to tell us that Obama is black? Seriously, if there were any dirt he should pull it out sooner than later. People are already voting early.

This. My ballot is already done and mailed.

incendi: LordJiro:

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

BARACK HUSSEIN BIN LADEN OBAMA PERSONALLY FLEW THE AIRPLANES INTO BOTH TOWERS OF THE TRADE CENTER AND THE PENTAGON HOW CAN WE TRUST A TERRORIST TO BE PRESIDENT ESPECIALLY A BLACK ONE AND HES UNAMERICAN TOO PROBABLY NOT EVEN A CITIZEN AND EVEN IF HE IS A CITIZEN HES STILL A MUSLIM SO IT DOESNT COUNT

Source(s)?

Did he really have time to take the elevator down, go to the airport and highjack the next plane?

Pharque-it:

Source(s)?

AM 660.

/Stupid on loan from God.

Pharque-it: incendi: LordJiro:

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

BARACK HUSSEIN BIN LADEN OBAMA PERSONALLY FLEW THE AIRPLANES INTO BOTH TOWERS OF THE TRADE CENTER AND THE PENTAGON HOW CAN WE TRUST A TERRORIST TO BE PRESIDENT ESPECIALLY A BLACK ONE AND HES UNAMERICAN TOO PROBABLY NOT EVEN A CITIZEN AND EVEN IF HE IS A CITIZEN HES STILL A MUSLIM SO IT DOESNT COUNT

Source(s)?

Did he really have time to take the elevator down, go to the airport and highjack the next plane?

He did it with his SECRET MUSLIN MAGIC POWAR

incendi: Pharque-it:

Source(s)?

AM 660.

/Stupid on loan from God.

Totally believable then. I will send email all my friends.

Bucky Katt: People will vote their fears. McCain will win.

People will post their Stupid. Bucky Katt will post again.

Pharque-it: incendi: LordJiro:

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

BARACK HUSSEIN BIN LADEN OBAMA PERSONALLY FLEW THE AIRPLANES INTO BOTH TOWERS OF THE TRADE CENTER AND THE PENTAGON HOW CAN WE TRUST A TERRORIST TO BE PRESIDENT ESPECIALLY A BLACK ONE AND HES UNAMERICAN TOO PROBABLY NOT EVEN A CITIZEN AND EVEN IF HE IS A CITIZEN HES STILL A MUSLIM SO IT DOESNT COUNT

Source(s)?

Did he really have time to take the elevator down, go to the airport and highjack the next plane?

Never underestimate the powers of the Magic Negro.

BlippityBleep: ayenull: Semi-Sane: McCain will win the election. Just wait for the dirt that he'll hit Obama with one week prior to election day.

Is he going to tell us that Obama is black? Seriously, if there were any dirt he should pull it out sooner than later. People are already voting early.

This. My ballot is already done and mailed.

Pretty much everyone I know here in AZ has already voted. Too bad we are a red state...

Bill Frist: Races always tighten up at the end.

I have a relative who's voting for McCain because they don't want Obama to have a huge mandate from the people.

Luckily she's in a deep blue state but I don't know of a dumber reason to vote for someone.

Bucky Katt: People will vote their fears. McCain will win.

You are exact on the first part as people are in fear on another Republican holding office. You are dead wrong on the second part my friend.

The Swift Boat Vets will start airing attack ads stating that Obama's father was a Muslim extremist.

alostpacket: Luckily she's in a deep blue state but I don't know of a dumber reason to vote for someone.

Because he seems like the sort of person you'd like to have a beer with.

dahmers love zombie: At that rate of gain, it will be only about 27.4 years until they're even. Then Zombie McCain will have a shot against Geezer Obama.

Hmmm, don't know what you did there, but I calculated that if McCain's chances were increasing linearly, it will take 205.467 years for him to reach 50% (maybe we'll have to freeze 'em both). If his chances were increasing geometrically, it will take 42.074 days for him to reach 50%. Regardless, it looks bleak for McCain.
This is bad news... for Obama.

indylaw: Pharque-it: incendi: LordJiro:

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

BARACK HUSSEIN BIN LADEN OBAMA PERSONALLY FLEW THE AIRPLANES INTO BOTH TOWERS OF THE TRADE CENTER AND THE PENTAGON HOW CAN WE TRUST A TERRORIST TO BE PRESIDENT ESPECIALLY A BLACK ONE AND HES UNAMERICAN TOO PROBABLY NOT EVEN A CITIZEN AND EVEN IF HE IS A CITIZEN HES STILL A MUSLIM SO IT DOESNT COUNT

Source(s)?

Did he really have time to take the elevator down, go to the airport and highjack the next plane?

Never underestimate the powers of the Magic Negro.

Troll:
I HURD IF U RUBB HIS HEAD U WIL FEAL CHANGE
LOLOLOL EMTY SUIT
end troll

FarKnight: On 538 they went from about 4% at the lowest to about 6% currently.

It is significant because as each day passes, his chances are reduced due to time running out. But his recent gains have been enough to keep him ahead of that curve, enough to even make a net gain. I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds 30% odds in the next week or so.

Then you didn't read the whole thing, which specifically states that he's NOT likely to start gaining a constant 1.5 points per day. He's more likely to reach a plateau as the race tightens towards election day.

The numbers reflect mostly gains in states he already holds. Battleground states aren't mirroring the trend.

Essentially, he solidifying his base, but not making inroads into undecideds or right-leaning Dems. Since Republicans are generally under-represented compared to democrats in the tight-race states, the change is statistically insignificant as it bears on the end result.

A real trend towards a resurrection of the Campaign's chances would be seen in states that currently "lean" blue. If there's a real resurgence for John McCain, that's where it will have to happen.

Bill Frist: Mugato: FarKnight: But his recent gains have been enough to keep him ahead of that curve

What do you think is causing these gains? An honest question, not trying to be snarky.

Races always tighten up at the end.

Yeah, it's always 48%/52%, but that's red vs. blue popular vote, not electoral college.

04/08 electoral, w/, w/o "barely" states removed (pops)

notice how Obama is over 275 in both 08 graphs, but Kerry was not in 04.

Electoral C. results (all) (pops)

This page shows that 65.43% [354/(354+187)] is not a outlier historically, as Clinton and Reagan beat that twice, HW Bush and Nixon beat it, too.

Call me Biased, do it!!!

incendi: LordJiro:

A terrorist attack wouldn't even change it, I believe. Obama seems to be the type to take charge and look in control of things, while McCain will panic, or put on that bullshiat tough-guy facade Bush did after 9/11. Sure, the 'Secret Muslim' nutjobs will be convinced Obama was behind the attack (if they don't think he personally carried it out), but they were already all for McCain anyway.

BARACK HUSSEIN BIN LADEN OBAMA PERSONALLY FLEW THE AIRPLANES INTO BOTH TOWERS OF THE TRADE CENTER AND THE PENTAGON HOW CAN WE TRUST A TERRORIST TO BE PRESIDENT ESPECIALLY A BLACK ONE AND HES UNAMERICAN TOO PROBABLY NOT EVEN A CITIZEN AND EVEN IF HE IS A CITIZEN HES STILL A MUSLIM SO IT DOESNT COUNT

Congratulations, that is officially the stupidest troll I have ever read.

There are lots of states that were pretty firmly republican that could go blue. Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and if the liberals would actually vote it could get close in Texas.