It doesn't matter because RON PAUL will win with 101% of the vote because I run Diebold.

Takes a while to settle from such a huge drop.

See. I knew that McCain being a POW would make everybody in America vote for him. They'd just forgotten and now they're beginning to remember.

But Obama's lead is up in the other tracking polls. OH MY GOD I'M SO CONFUSED

If Obama is so good, why is he only polling at 51%? He should be up somewhere about 75%.

How's the EC look? Not so good for McCain still.

You would think a polling organization like Gallup would know to say something like "since this movement is all within the margin of error, it's likely that really nothing has changed at all."

But I guess that wouldn't be a great way to drive clicks and advertising revenue to their site.

clancifer: How's the EC look?

538.com and e-v.com seem to be projecting that he doesn't need Ohio or Florida.

Richard Pye: If Obama is so good, why is he only polling at 51%? He should be up somewhere about 75%.

Never going to happen in this country. When Reagan blew Mondale out, he got 58% of the vote. Nixon got 60% in 1972, I believe the biggest blow out in history.

clancifer: How's the EC look? Not so good for McCain still.

There's basically no chance unless something massive happens. 343-184 with 11 votes tied in Missouri. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Florida are weak Obama, so I suppose they could turn the election to McCain- but there's really no indication of anything that could spin all four towards him.

eddyatwork: It doesn't matter because RON PAUL will win with 101% of the vote because I run Diebold.

I'm probably going to write in RON PAUL. He can still win if enough people write him in.

Richard Pye: If Obama is so good, why is he only polling at 51%? He should be up somewhere about 75%.

2 reasons. No one can get that high. Even the Republican God Reagan's best I believe was like 57% in 1984, when he handily crushed Mondale.

2nd reason: The nation is bitterly divided. Good job GOP.

downstairs: When Reagan blew Mondale out, he got 58% of the vote. Nixon got 60% in 1972, I believe the biggest blow out in history.

So what do you reckon a mandate would be, considering Obama is a black Muslim? Would 55% be be a strong message to the racists that America is now Brotha-friendly?

GaryPDX: I'm probably going to write in RON PAUL.

I think if/when Obama wins, he'll go on TV and say, "Hay guiz jus kiddin lol I want RON PAUL as prez kthnxbai" and that'll be that.

GaryPDX: I'm probably going to write in RON PAUL

I joke about the guy but honestly I'd rather write him in than vote for the two main parties.

GaryPDX

I'm probably going to write in RON PAUL. He can still win if enough people write him in.

All he needs is to get the write-in vote of every single person who likes Kool-Aid over their Froot Loops.

GaryPDX: He can still win if enough people write him in

Snark aside, as a legal matter he can't. Only a few states count write-in votes for people who haven't declared their candidacy, and even then someone has to submit a slate of Electors (Paul has done neither). He'll be on the ballot in two states (Montana and Louisiana) where supporters got him on without his support.

Wait, wait, wait!!!!

McCain was a POW?
I wish I knew this sooner.

Blah blah - US election - blah! You have two choices - big whoop!
I have to vote in the Canadian election Tuesday with ,like , fifteen patries to choose from - and a few of them aren't bat-shiat loonies, either.

oldfarthenry: I have to vote in the Canadian election Tuesday with ,like , fifteen pastries to choose from

Mmmm, Danish.

Richard Pye: oldfarthenry: I have to vote in the Canadian election Tuesday with ,like , fifteen pastries to choose from

Mmmm, Danish.

Great! Now I'm hungry and have to go to Timmy's!

oldfarthenry: Great! Now I'm hungry and have to go to Timmy's!

grab me one of them cider donuts would ya?

oldfarthenry: Richard Pye: oldfarthenry: I have to vote in the Canadian election Tuesday with ,like , fifteen pastries to choose from

Mmmm, Danish.

Great! Now I'm hungry and have to go to Timmy's!

Oh come on, just eat up some of that egg/meat pie you keep in freezer

oldfarthenry: I have to vote in the Canadian election

Nobody cares about non-Americans. We're the only nation on the planet.

downstairs: clancifer: How's the EC look? Not so good for McCain still.

There's basically no chance unless something massive happens. 343-184 with 11 votes tied in Missouri. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Florida are weak Obama, so I suppose they could turn the election to McCain- but there's really no indication of anything that could spin all four towards him.

Actually, not even that would be enough. Out of the states that seem to be in play (not solidly for Obama or McCain), McCain would have to get Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina AND Florida. He currently has a slight lead in some of those states, but he needs to get his ass in gear if he wants to secure his lead in those states and overtake Obama in the others.

Dan the Schman: He currently has a slight lead in some of those states, but he needs to get his ass in gear if he wants to secure his lead in those states and overtake Obama in the others.

That is the key to this election. Obama has a ground game. McCain...doesn't.

It's eerily similar to the Democratic primary, actually.

A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR FARK REPUBLICANS:
How does the McCain camp expect to win if their stumping is 98% negative (almost completely focused on Ayers/Wright), when most independents stated that they abhorred this negative style of campaigning?

/To be specific, McCain stands there and says nothing while Palin whips the crowd in to a vitriolic frenzy.

cameroncrazy1984: That is the key to this election. Obama has a ground game. McCain...doesn't.

Election night will be interesting - its very possible that we will see a lot of polling which totally undercounted new votes and changes in turnout. Should be fun.

Hmm....so, mid November. Like, if there were an event which profoundly affected the ability of the government to maintain order, and they had to put off the national election for a couple weeks to "ensure that all persons had adequate access to polling places"?

Something like that?

Maybe perpetrated by Muslims?

Wonder what the Terror Threat Index is up to these days...

/adjusting tinfoil

WaltzingMathilda: Richard Pye: If Obama is so good, why is he only polling at 51%? He should be up somewhere about 75%.

2 reasons. No one can get that high. Even the Republican God Reagan's best I believe was like 57% in 1984, when he handily crushed Mondale.

2nd reason: The nation is bitterly divided. Good job GOP.

Doesn't matter! Obama can only have that presidency when he wins by 125%! Anything less means that McCain deserves his rightful place!

queezyweezel: A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR FARK REPUBLICANS:
How does the McCain camp expect to win if their stumping is 98% negative (almost completely focused on Ayers/Wright), when most independents stated that they abhorred this negative style of campaigning?

/To be specific, McCain stands there and says nothing while Palin whips the crowd in to a vitriolic frenzy.

So, she's trippin' around whipping the nutsacks into a frenzy of dickish play?

Whoaaaaaa.

/just had to

queezyweezel: A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR FARK REPUBLICANS:
How does the McCain camp expect to win if their stumping is 98% negative (almost completely focused on Ayers/Wright), when most independents stated that they abhorred this negative style of campaigning?

/To be specific, McCain stands there and says nothing while Palin whips the crowd in to a vitriolic frenzy.

My dad called me this morning- he honestly thinks McCain's doing this to goad someone into taking a shot at Obama. He thinks McCain's decided that the risks of Obama surviving and getting th pity vote is worth it.

Unfortunately for McCain-Palin, the Newsweek poll is trending in the opposite direction (now O+11, up from O+9)

Lionel Mandrake: Unfortunately for McCain-Palin, the Newsweek poll is trending in the opposite direction (now O+11, up from O+9)

Yeah -- I think the race is stable at this level for now and these little fluctuations are just noise. Absent some game-changer, I doubt we'll see much movement now until a few days before the election when the last undecideds pick a candidate. Even then it probably won't be more than a few points in each direction.

My prediction for Nov.:

queezyweezel: A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR FARK REPUBLICANS:
How does the McCain camp expect to win if their stumping is 98% negative (almost completely focused on Ayers/Wright), when most independents stated that they abhorred this negative style of campaigning?

/To be specific, McCain stands there and says nothing while Palin whips the crowd in to a vitriolic frenzy.

Bold text like that assures that no one will take you seriously. Also, do you honestly expect any of them to give you a real answer? Come man, it's Fark Politics.

GaryPDX: I'm probably going to write in RON PAUL. He can still win if enough people write him in.

I'll be writing in The Easter Bunny - I think he's going to give Ron Paul a run for his money.

Girl From The North Country: You would think a polling organization like Gallup would know to say something like "since this movement is all within the margin of error, it's likely that really nothing has changed at all."

But I guess that wouldn't be a great way to drive clicks and advertising revenue to their site.

They've been doing that for months. The lead is too big to ignore now. It doesn't fall within the MoE. Gallup and Rassmussen have been VERY cautious until now. If they keep saying that both camps fall within the margin of error, they lose all credibility and will be ignored in the future.

some_wild-eyed_8-foot_tall_maniac: My prediction for Nov.:

Tragedy in Mr. Roger's neighborhood?

NeverDrunk23: some_wild-eyed_8-foot_tall_maniac: My prediction for Nov.:

Tragedy in Mr. Roger's neighborhood?

While it is nice to see Obama lead nationally, it really means little. What matters are the state-wide polls, especially in the toss-up states. Ask Al Gore what good nation wide polling did him.

Richard Pye: If Obama is so good, why is he only polling at 51%? He should be up somewhere about 75%.

Seriously, lots of Americans will not vote for a black man. I've heard it myself from Democrats. Not gonna vote for one of THEM.

eddyatwork: GaryPDX: I'm probably going to write in RON PAUL

I joke about the guy but honestly I'd rather write him in than vote for the two main parties.

Castle/Baldwin '08

/just doing my part.

first

cameroncrazy1984: oldfarthenry: Great! Now I'm hungry and have to go to Timmy's!

grab me one of them cider donuts would ya?

what is a cider donut?

queezyweezel: A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR FARK REPUBLICANS:
How does the McCain camp expect to win if their stumping is 98% negative (almost completely focused on Ayers/Wright), when most independents stated that they abhorred this negative style of campaigning?

He won't. McCain is going to lose. McCain's campaign staff is running the dumbest campaign possible (i.e. Kerry's campaign in 2004). No talk about policies. He just attacks the other guy. It's all about being the anti-candidate. If you're going to attack, you have to make sure your attacks have substance. Kerry didn't know how to do that right, and neither does McCain.

big_pth: While it is nice to see Obama lead nationally, it really means little. What matters are the state-wide polls, especially in the toss-up states. Ask Al Gore what good nation wide polling did him.

Actually, it does matter. When it comes to very small differences in the popular vote, you're right. Gore beat Bush in the popular vote, 48.4 to 47.9. He beat him by one-half of one percent of total voters that year.

However, when you're talking about popular vote leads of even three or four percent, it's damn near impossible to finagle things so that the more popular candidate can lose. I mean, sure, you could rig it up with all those extra voters being in California and New York, with margins of 30+%. However, that doesn't coincide with reality.

When you stick with normal voting behaviors in the United States, a popular vote margin of five percent always, always, always translates into a solid electoral college victory.

oldfarthenry: Richard Pye: oldfarthenry: I have to vote in the Canadian election Tuesday with ,like , fifteen pastries to choose from

Mmmm, Danish.

Great! Now I'm hungry and have to go to Timmy's!

Blech. Who would willingly eat their pre-frozen, dessicated excuse for donuts?

Richard Pye: If Obama is so good, why is he only polling at 51%? He should be up somewhere about 75%.

Oh poor elephant-ass-head guy. You've changed so much since the oxygen was cut off from your brain.

queezyweezel: A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR FARK REPUBLICANS:
How does the McCain camp expect to win if their stumping is 98% negative (almost completely focused on Ayers/Wright), when most independents stated that they abhorred this negative style of campaigning?

/To be specific, McCain stands there and says nothing while Palin whips the crowd in to a vitriolic frenzy.

More specifically: Why is Palin stumping in places like West Virginia and Nebraska? They should be in the sack by this time.