strangeguitar: "Whoa, slow down there maestro. There's a NEW Mexico?"

Yes. I want to go there and make my dream come true. I'll just be gone for a week.

Just picture this guy in a cowboy hat.

gopher321: Just picture this guy in a cowboy hat.

Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh.

538.com has NM with an 89% of victory for Obama.

No.

As someone who lives next door to New Mex I can tell you that their local elections people are very very very very corrupt. They are like Louisiana Governors - only last for a little bit and always end up in Jail.

New Mexico has some issues within the state that may push most voters towards the Republican ticket.

Highly unlikely. It's starting to look like this year won't be nearly close enough to come down to one state.

"Programming Error"

Umm the test corrected it.

FTA: Since the 2004 election, New Mexico has shifted to voting on hand-marked paper ballots that are scanned by optical scan computer counters. That transition came after election integrity activists found that paperless electronic voting machines used in the 2004 presidential election did not record more than 21,000 votes for president -- many in historically Democratic strongholds... Because George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 in New Mexico by slightly less than 6,000 votes, the high undervote rate was among the factors that prompted the state to return to using hand-marked paper ballots.

What the hell? why didn't we hear about this during the '04 election?

'Gators? In MAH New Mexico?
It's more likely than you'd think.

/Ma! Get der shovel!

Republicans shaping up to be this election's Democrats. Suck it, cons.

Yeah, umm... not really.
McCain-Obama polling. Polls showing McCain lead are listed in bold.

Rasmussen 10/1/08 500 LV 44 49
SurveyUSA 9/29-30/08 698 LV 44 52
PPP (D) 9/17-19/08 1037 LV 42 53
ARG 9/14-16/08 600 LV 44 51
SurveyUSA 9/14-16/08 671 A 44 52
Allstate/National Journal 9/11-15/08 402 RV 42 49
Zogby (Internet) 9/9-12/08 477 LV 44 46
Rasmussen 9/8/08 700 LV 49 47
CNN/Time 8/24-26/08 659 RV 40 53
Rasmussen 8/20/08 700 LV 44 48
Zogby (Internet) 8/15-19/08 495 LV 37 46
Mason-Dixon 8/13-15/08 400 LV 45 41
Rasmussen 7/24/08 500 LV 43 49
Zogby (Internet) 6/11-30/08 464 LV 33 49
Rasmussen 6/19/08 500 LV 39 47
SurveyUSA 6/17-19/08 539 LV 46 49


See Pollster.com for those who are skeptical of 538

Clinton vs. Dole

This is bad news... for Mexicans.

Gee, a voting machine error that would have failed to count Democratic votes. What a shock!

The software error concerned straight party voting, where voters fill in one oval on their paper ballot that indicates they want to vote for all the candidates from a political party.

There's a bubble for voting straight ticket? I think that's ridiculous, creating a ballot that appeals to the lazy/ignorant voters.

bradkanus: As someone who lives next door to New Mex I can tell you that their local elections people are very very very very corrupt. They are like Louisiana Governors - only last for a little bit and always end up in Jail.

New Mexico has some issues within the state that may push most voters towards the Republican ticket.

WTF? New Mexico will go Obama and I can't think of a single issue on the local races that will make the Republicans come out. Udall is a lock in the Senate. The third is the only district that is competitive. The biggest problem Obama has isn't a Republican it's Nader.

as for correct officials, yes it's true but it isn't that bad; it only tends to effect local elections: city, county, etc. Big elections we are good about.

I live in New Mexico, so I am getting a kick out of these replies.

Doubly so, since I moved here from Florida to get away from hurracanes and election nuttiness....



gopher321

That picture always gets a laugh, and I suppose deservedly so, but I lived in Broward County during that recount, and it was the only country in which the recount was actually completed in a timely manner, without any intimidation from Republicans (who brought Dade's recount to a standstill), and without taking time off for the Thanksgiving Holiday. That guy may look goofy, but to me he and the rest of the Broward election board are heroes.

Gunther: What the hell? why didn't we hear about this during the '04 election?

I think Fox News avoided it because they didn't want to burden their employees with the monumental task of trying to spell "Albuquerque" to put on-screen.

scavenger: "Programming Error"

And these "errors" that keep cropping up aren't benign:

"What is unsettling about the test in Santa Fe County on Friday was the fact that the error affected the two most hotly contested races on the ballot -- president and U.S. senator. A more likely programming error would have have either affected all the party's candidates globally or a single race." [emphasis mine]

These "errors" are being purposely programmed in, all over the country. Remember all these stories cropping up before the election, then multiply them by the number of precincts that aren't catching the "errors" and you won't be surprised when McCain pulls off a surprise upset on election day.

I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.

i'm from new mexico, moved to seattle two years ago...
there are some sketchy things going down in NM voting. mad nonsense errors, exit poll differences, thousands of missing votes.... nothing ever gets fixed either, the democratic machine rivals chicago under daley

/land of enchantment
//sand of entrapment

worlddan: The third is the only district that is competitive

Sorry, that should read "the first". I live in the third and I wish it were competitive this year.

Simplest Quantum System Conceivable: See Pollster.com for those who are skeptical of 538

Pollster.com doesn't weight their polls for accuracy, they just include everything, even polls that showed a significant bias during the primaries. I'm not sure why you'd pick them over 538.

oldebayer: I live in New Mexico, so I am getting a kick out of these replies.

Doubly so, since I moved here from Florida to get away from hurracanes and election nuttiness....

Out of the frying pan(handle)...

scavenger: I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.

I hope so too but there's that convenient "Bradley effect" to trot out in case of a shocking surprise upset.

Gunther: Simplest Quantum System Conceivable: See Pollster.com for those who are skeptical of 538

Pollster.com doesn't weight their polls for accuracy, they just include everything, even polls that showed a significant bias during the primaries. I'm not sure why you'd pick them over 538.

Because of a strange little notion called the law of errors. You might want to read up on it sometime. The fact that Pollster does not weight for accuracy improves their results.

It's amazing how these "simple" coincidental errors in voting machines and practices seem to undercount the Democrats 90% of the time rather than the Republicans or both.

Who knew random chance was so politically biased?

Kevin5280: There's a bubble for voting straight ticket? I think that's ridiculous, creating a ballot that appeals to the lazy/ignorant voters.

This.

People who vote straight ticket because of party affiliation scare me. I usually vote GOP but I'll vote for a democrat if I don't like who's running.

Lumi: scavenger: I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.

I hope so too but there's that convenient "Bradley effect" to trot out in case of a shocking surprise upset.

538 did a pretty good analysis and pretty conclusively came up with zero Bradley effect. In fact, they said it seemed more like a reverse Bradley Effect was going on.

/won't stop people from using at an excuse

My favorite election day story was the one about the truck full of voting machines overturned on the freeway as the driver and guard were on the way to Hooters. Voting machines show up in vacant buildings too...with uncounted votes. At least the corruption here is out in the open and not without its humor.

Impossible.

I've been to New Mexico.

People there can *read*. I've seen it.

Yeaaaaaah...Obama's winning New Mexico. Look to Colorado for a state-where-everything-hinges story.

worlddan: Because of a strange little notion called the law of errors. You might want to read up on it sometime. The fact that Pollster does not weight for accuracy improves their results.

That only works if some polls are merely less accurate than others. If a poll repeatedly shows an inherent bias towards one candidate or the other, including it is not going to increase the accuracy of the results.

robsul82: Yeaaaaaah...Obama's winning New Mexico. Look to Colorado for a state-where-everything-hinges story.

And look to McCain HQ for a campaign-where-everyone-whinges story.

Lumi: scavenger: I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.

I hope so too but there's that convenient "Bradley effect" to trot out in case of a shocking surprise upset.

Sad but true.

scavenger: I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.



There is no margin large enough. Obama could go in with consistent 20 pt lead in the polls, emerge defeated and all you'll hear about is the "Bradley effect."

If someone wants to steal the election, they'll steal it. Polls be damned.

B.S. Florida will be this year's Florida. Trust me on this one.

TMBGfreak: Lumi: scavenger: I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.

I hope so too but there's that convenient "Bradley effect" to trot out in case of a shocking surprise upset.

538 did a pretty good analysis and pretty conclusively came up with zero Bradley effect. In fact, they said it seemed more like a reverse Bradley Effect was going on.

/won't stop people from using at an excuse

So they could detect if a person lied when asked if race would affect their vote? Wow!

//Sorry I don't have enough faith in humanity to think 100% would do what they say they are going to do.

Didn't they have an incident in New Mexico during the primaries where an election official took a ballot box home with them and they counted the votes the next day?

Lumi: scavenger: I sincerely hope that Obama is so far ahead in the polls going into election day that any attempt at chicanery will be readily exposed.

I hope so too but there's that convenient "Bradley effect" to trot out in case of a shocking surprise upset.

The "Bradley Effect" is misnamed. The exit polling matched actual election day in-person voting, no problems there. Bradley lost to Dukmejian because little old ladies and little old men (a solid GOP demographic during that period in California) dutifully sent in their absentee ballots by the truckload - and exit polling never accounts for absentee balloting. The Duke won fair and square.

/CA voter

Indiana is this years Florida. If you mean close state. If you want states relevant to victory? None of them.

Que Fantastico!

culebra: Highly unlikely. It's starting to look like this year won't be nearly close enough to come down to one state.

+1. If Obama only wins in a squeaker, I'll be disappointed, and the Fox News goons will immediately start in on the "narrow victory" and the "divided electorate" and the archpundits will wonder if Obama should put "several republicans" in his cabinet and more and more bullshiat that we didn't hear in 2000 or 2004 when it went the other way.

thatmanfromtexas: So they could detect if a person lied when asked if race would affect their vote? Wow!

//Sorry I don't have enough faith in humanity to think 100% would do what they say they are going to do.

No, but they could easily show that Obama did not signifigantly underperform his polling numbers like the Bradley Effect said he would.

Whatsleft: Indiana is this years Florida. If you mean close state.

If Obama wins Indiana, I just might wind up doing body shots off my dog and will probably wake up in a stranger's yard the next morning not even remembering who won.

After 8 years of Bush hell, the republicans need to be owned.

robsul82: Yeaaaaaah...Obama's winning New Mexico. Look to Colorado for a state-where-everything-hinges story.

In Illinois, Colorado and Kentucky, contractors with partisan ties to the GOP will be counting the 2008 vote.

According to Bev Harris, BlackBoxVoting.org.

RemyDuron: thatmanfromtexas: So they could detect if a person lied when asked if race would affect their vote? Wow!

//Sorry I don't have enough faith in humanity to think 100% would do what they say they are going to do.

No, but they could easily show that Obama did not signifigantly underperform his polling numbers like the Bradley Effect said he would.

The polls and the election results will not match up, IMHO.

thatmanfromtexas

Didn't they have an incident in New Mexico during the primaries where an election official took a ballot box home with them and they counted the votes the next day?

True, but it was in the aftermath of a snowstorm in which the roof of the building they were voting in had collapsed. Small town, roads blocked, understandable.