Well, yeah. Would you bet on a sports team that's had a week like the one McCain's had?

538 had an observation earlier this week: Someone seems to be trying to fark around with Intrade's algorithm by aperiodically buying huge lots of McCain (and Hillary!) bids. No idea how long they can afford to keep that up.

Don't worry. I imagine that Diebold will come through with a bailout program on November 4th.

This is bad news... for Obama.

Zagloba: 538 had an observation earlier this week: Someone seems to be trying to fark around with Intrade's algorithm by aperiodically buying huge lots of McCain (and Hillary!) bids. No idea how long they can afford to keep that up.

They can probably keep it up for a while if they are associated with the campaign or backed by an organization with deep pockets. If this is a private person though... then they deserve to lose all the money that they are pissing away.

Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

Zagloba: Well, yeah. Would you bet on a sports team that's had a week like the one McCain's had?

538 had an observation earlier this week: Someone seems to be trying to fark around with Intrade's algorithm by aperiodically buying huge lots of McCain (and Hillary!) bids. No idea how long they can afford to keep that up.

I'm really clueless about betting. How would that affect the odds?

Code_Archeologist: They can probably keep it up for a while if they are associated with the campaign or backed by an organization with deep pockets. If this is a private person though... then they deserve to lose all the money that they are pissing away.

Looks like each time they make money.

Shrugging Atlas: Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

It's at least as informative as a poll. The difference is that people are actually betting money on the outcome. Actually putting money on something suggests that these people REALLY believe they are right. Of course they could be wrong, but people are willing to bet money on it, and that's worth noting.

quickdraw: I'm really clueless about betting. How would that affect the odds?


If someone sells a bunch of contracts, then there is a more saturated market. If there is a more saturated market, then the price if the contracts goes down. People will only bid so much on them.

Shrugging Atlas: Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

Yes, a lot of people take prediction markets very seriously. Scientific analysis of prediction markets have found that they do have a statistically significant rate of accuracy, even in the face of market manipulation.

Shrugging Atlas: Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

They're as accurate or more accurate than polls, so they're worth watching if you're a poll junkie. 'Course, 538.com is showing they can be gamed as well. From Pollingreport:

The power of the betting markets in assimilating the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically. Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year's U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

nekom: It's at least as informative as a poll. The difference is that people are actually betting money on the outcome. Actually putting money on something suggests that these people REALLY believe they are right. Of course they could be wrong, but people are willing to bet money on it, and that's worth noting.

The problem is, it's not an indicator of opinion. It's an indicator of the polls. Intrade had McCain winning for the weeks that his poll numbers were high.

Shrugging Atlas: Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

Historically, Intrade has been less inaccurate than most polls. People lie to polls; they're less likely to lie with their own money.

Not that that means it will be right.

I would hope so. He's disaster.

slobarnuts: nekom: It's at least as informative as a poll. The difference is that people are actually betting money on the outcome. Actually putting money on something suggests that these people REALLY believe they are right. Of course they could be wrong, but people are willing to bet money on it, and that's worth noting.

The problem is, it's not an indicator of opinion. It's an indicator of the polls. Intrade had McCain winning for the weeks that his poll numbers were high.

Polls ONLY take into account current snapshots of public opinion. Prediction markets take ALL information into account, including current polls. Since the markets can also take into account analyses of what those polls mean going forward, they are going to be better predictors of outcomes.

Code_Archeologist: Yes, a lot of people take prediction markets very seriously. Scientific analysis of prediction markets have found that they do have a statistically significant rate of accuracy, even in the face of market manipulation.

It's a wisdom of crowds thing.

bronyaur1: Polls ONLY take into account current snapshots of public opinion. Prediction markets take ALL information into account, including current polls. Since the markets can also take into account analyses of what those polls mean going forward, they are going to be better predictors of outcomes.

Prediction markets take any number of factors into account, from polls right down to `I just have a hunch'. Whether that makes them more or less accurate I'm really not sure, but I'll not be ignoring intrade in my rampant speculation of who will win.

horseshiat!

Shrugging Atlas: Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

The political markets have been proven to be more accurate than opinion polling. They made many predictions that were true while the opinion polling was wrong.

I hope Obama wins, but it's not because the idiots who call themselves "the public" got smart or anything. He just would have found the right chord to strike to get them to vote for him. The public are amazingly dumb and manipulatable.

nekom: This is bad news... for Obama.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HA (gasp) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

TOO FUNNY!!!! You truly are the king of original comedy.

McCain lost more than a debate last night. He lost the perception of a viable candidacy.

McCain is luring us all in to a false sense of security and when we least suspect it he will attack. That's how he escaped from that Vietcong prison camp.

What's that? They let him go? Oh....

Yeah McSame is screwed. It can only get worse after the VP debate and the October "Not a Surprise to Anyone but McCain" of the economy continuing to worsen.

Voting for McCain is agreeing that Palin has the skillsets to run the worlds last superpower, in a time when it's in a lot of trouble.

Most people who bid on political futures do so based on the outcome of polling. It just takes a little longer for them to adjust than polls.

Intrade and other markets are just a good gauge of the aggregate of the current conventional wisdom.

There were some posters on Red State last night who were using Intrade numbers to PROVE that McCain won the debate. I'm too lazy to go troll the numbers from this morning over there but anyone else looking for some trollific fun, have at it.

opiumpoopy: Shrugging Atlas: Honest question: Does anyone take all these political market things seriously?

Historically, Intrade has been less inaccurate than most polls. People lie to polls; they're less likely to lie with their own money.

Not that that means it will be right.

Yeah they may not lie, but
1) They are not likely to be a good sample
2) they are saying what they think is true, not how they will vote.

In response to Mccain's "Right" ad, Obama releases one with excerpts from last night's debate.

Zero. (new window)

So, about the debate. I slept through it and read the transcript this morning.

Seemed like McCain spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to tear down Obama. And from what people have said, he didn't even look at Obama while talking.

Did McCain really spend all that time speaking ill of Obama without even once looking at him while doing it?

The perception that McCain was trying to suppress a hemmeroid flareup during the debate didn't help him at all. Obama just seemed a lot more relaxed and confident. McCain seemed like an angry old man.

Obama = kind of guy it would be fun to watch a football game with.

McCain = guy who'd throw a temper tantrum if his team lost. Then he'd try to nuke something.

newmoonpuppyhead: In response to Mccain's "Right" ad, Obama releases one with excerpts from last night's debate.

Zero. (new window)

Hmm. I'm glad he came out with something, but I think it could've been stronger.

GhostFish: So, about the debate. I slept through it and read the transcript this morning.

Seemed like McCain spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to tear down Obama. And from what people have said, he didn't even look at Obama while talking.

Did McCain really spend all that time speaking ill of Obama without even once looking at him while doing it?

Correct on all counts. He was repeating laughable lies that have been proven wrong over and over, to boot. I'm shocked he didn't look at the camera and tell us that Saddam Hussein orchestrated 9/11.

GhostFish: So, about the debate. I slept through it and read the transcript this morning.

Seemed like McCain spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to tear down Obama. And from what people have said, he didn't even look at Obama while talking.

Did McCain really spend all that time speaking ill of Obama without even once looking at him while doing it?

Yeah, and look at the ads McCain and Obama released afterwards. Both show Obama speaking, neither McCain.

The rats are jumping off the titanic.

Tsunami Ditka: newmoonpuppyhead: In response to Mccain's "Right" ad, Obama releases one with excerpts from last night's debate.

Zero. (new window)

Hmm. I'm glad he came out with something, but I think it could've been stronger.

I think that ad was perfect to hit an undecided voter with. Lest ye forget, those ads aren't written for people who already agree with the point - they're meant to move people into his column. Any stronger turns off Independents.

GhostFish: So, about the debate. I slept through it and read the transcript this morning.

Seemed like McCain spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to tear down Obama. And from what people have said, he didn't even look at Obama while talking.

Did McCain really spend all that time speaking ill of Obama without even once looking at him while doing it?

Not only that, but McCain refused to even look at Obama when they shook hands after the debate. McCain is a complete dick.

slobarnuts: People will only bid so much on them.

So that means someone is trying to drive the price of Mccain down? Then what would they do? Buy more shares and hope the price goes back up or are they trying to drive up the value of Obama's price?

MacEnvy: Tsunami Ditka: newmoonpuppyhead: In response to Mccain's "Right" ad, Obama releases one with excerpts from last night's debate.

Zero. (new window)

Hmm. I'm glad he came out with something, but I think it could've been stronger.

I think that ad was perfect to hit an undecided voter with. Lest ye forget, those ads aren't written for people who already agree with the point - they're meant to move people into his column. Any stronger turns off Independents.

Good point. I thought the rhetoric was fine - it just felt kind of thrown together and haphazard. I don't know.

captain_heroic44: McCain is a complete dick.

Why vote for a half-breed dick when you can get 100% genuine American dick?

captain_heroic44:
Not only that, but McCain refused to even look at Obama when they shook hands after the debate. McCain is a complete dick.

Clearly it's BO or BS.

I blame Soros

I can't wait for the Veep debates. Palin is going to get her ass handed to her.

Actually Obama's stock took a little dip after the debate:Link (new window)
And McNugget's went up:Link (new window)
But they both returned to pretty much where they were. Failed manipulation? I don't know.

captain_heroic44:
Not only that, but McCain refused to even look at Obama when they shook hands after the debate. McCain is a complete dick.

I think McCain didn't look at him because he was afraid that he'd see Obama and spontaneously shout, 'attractive and successful African-American!'

Tsunami Ditka: MacEnvy: Tsunami Ditka: newmoonpuppyhead: In response to Mccain's "Right" ad, Obama releases one with excerpts from last night's debate.

Zero. (new window)

Hmm. I'm glad he came out with something, but I think it could've been stronger.

I think that ad was perfect to hit an undecided voter with. Lest ye forget, those ads aren't written for people who already agree with the point - they're meant to move people into his column. Any stronger turns off Independents.

Good point. I thought the rhetoric was fine - it just felt kind of thrown together and haphazard. I don't know.

after the couple of weeks that McCain has had and Obama more than holding his own last night, the people who do Obama's ads probably made this one last night in between getting drunk, getting laid and high-fiving each other.

good ad, considering...

darknys: captain_heroic44:
Not only that, but McCain refused to even look at Obama when they shook hands after the debate. McCain is a complete dick.

I think McCain didn't look at him because he was afraid that he'd see Obama and spontaneously shout, 'attractive and successful African-American!'

or the n word

darthbandon: or the n word

Nagger?

darthbandon: darknys: captain_heroic44:
Not only that, but McCain refused to even look at Obama when they shook hands after the debate. McCain is a complete dick.

I think McCain didn't look at him because he was afraid that he'd see Obama and spontaneously shout, 'attractive and successful African-American!'

or the n word

I am aware of the filter. I assumed everyone else was, as well.

My favorite part;

McCain: How can you sit down without preconditions with someone that talks about the destruction of Isreal so openly?

Obama: Aren't you Senator McCain the one that believes in the destruction of Iran so much that you made a song to sing about about it? Bomb bomb bom Irraaaaaaaaannnnnnnnn.

McCain: We'll let me tell you about my track record, uhh my record has been...

[citation needed]

Way to completely dodge that question McCain!