That's got to be an outlier.

In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

It's an outlier. What matters are the trends.

BritneysSpeculum: That's got to be an outlier.

This. Most polls you will find in CO have Obama just on the outer edges of the MOE. 10 points is outlier land, and it will also skew the averages ever so slightly.

That said, I know for certain that COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO will decide this election.

/Tim Russert style

RadioAaron: BritneysSpeculum: That's got to be an outlier.

This. Most polls you will find in CO have Obama just on the outer edges of the MOE. 10 points is outlier land, and it will also skew the averages ever so slightly.

That said, I know for certain that COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO will decide this election.

/Tim Russert style

Do you have your white board ready for election night?

RadioAaron: BritneysSpeculum: That's got to be an outlier.

This. Most polls you will find in CO have Obama just on the outer edges of the MOE. 10 points is outlier land, and it will also skew the averages ever so slightly.

That said, I know for certain that COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO will decide this election.

/Tim Russert style

I think that Florida is going to be the new Florida, personally

It is in line with the last few days showing Obama really picking up since the RNC bump. But 10 is rather high

DamnYankees: It's an outlier. What matters are the trends.

fivethirtyeight.com (new window) isn't so sure.

If Barack Obama looks like he's moved up a point or two between two or three polls, that may not be particularly meaningful, and our model will tend to treat it as noise. If, on the other hand, Obama appears to have gained a point or two between 20 or 30 polls, which is what we're getting on a daily basis nowadays, we can say with more certainty that a real shift in the electorate has occurred.

The PALIN/_McCain bump is over. Moderates are realizing that she's just another fundie whackjob and has no business being anywhere within spitting distance of the White House.

BKITU: DamnYankees: It's an outlier. What matters are the trends.

fivethirtyeight.com (new window) isn't so sure.

If Barack Obama looks like he's moved up a point or two between two or three polls, that may not be particularly meaningful, and our model will tend to treat it as noise. If, on the other hand, Obama appears to have gained a point or two between 20 or 30 polls, which is what we're getting on a daily basis nowadays, we can say with more certainty that a real shift in the electorate has occurred.

The PALIN/McCain bump is over. Moderates are realizing that she's just another fundie whackjob and has no business being anywhere within spitting distance of the White House.

Yeah. You're agreeing with me. The important thing isnt the 10 point lead, but the general trends.

BKITU: fivethirtyeight.com (new window) isn't so sure that the trend isn't there.

FTFM

DamnYankees: Yeah. You're agreeing with me. The important thing isnt the 10 point lead, but the general trends.

Exactly.

/Preview is my friend. =P

Whatever.

Polls of likely voters in swing states are completely and notoriously unreliable. The only poll that should EVER be discussed are nationwide polls of registered voters who have a landline, and even those haven't been reliable since the a week after the RNC.

BritneysSpeculum: Do you have your white board ready for election night?

No, but that is a fantastic idea.

Damn! We missed the perfect opportunity to have this election!

/yeah, yeah "polls! polls! polls!"

drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

Kerry:Bush 2004 sticker ratio.

Energy issues will drive the outcome in Colorado (Amendment 58 and the hogwash going on over at the OGCC). If Coloradoans decide Ritters' bullsh*t energy ideas are bad, it'll hurt the Democrats.

RadioAaron: BritneysSpeculum: Do you have your white board ready for election night?

No, but that is a fantastic idea.

270towin.com

Link (new window)

Actually, the ones around here saying the polls haven't mattered recently is the Obama side. Both national and EC polls were routinely posted right up until McCain started taking the lead then it became; 1. national polls don't matter only EC polls (until McCain lead in EC) then it became 2. there are still 2 months left, who cares about polls now.

NOw that Obama is back to taking the lead, polls matter again.

/voting for Obama. Polls don't really matter this early and national polls are meaningless. After the debates is when polls matter.

what_now: Whatever.

Polls of likely voters in swing states are completely and notoriously unreliable. The only poll that should EVER be discussed are nationwide polls of registered voters who have a landline, and even those haven't been reliable since the a week after the RNC.

See.did.there.

/cut.jib.etc.

McCain 10 points ahead: "It's a sea change in public sentiment."

Obama 10 points ahead: "It's an outlier."

uh-huh

USP .45: drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

Kerry:Bush 2004 sticker ratio.

I live in Louisville and I still see W04 stickers.

For serious.

drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

The City Park West neighborhood was covered in Kerry/Edwards signs in 2004. El Paso county is like the bizarro Denver county in these elections.

National doesn't matter either.

Nothing to get too excited about just yet....sample size was just over 500 people.

/GOBAMA 08

CaptMacMillian: USP .45: drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

Kerry:Bush 2004 sticker ratio.

I live in Louisville and I still see W04 stickers.

For serious.

i live in PA and have seen a few W04 stickers i always want to ask them how it worked out for them

drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

Not surprising, when Sarah Palin seems to be spewing resentment towards the suburbs. Calling people who don't live in rural areas "lazy" is not a good way to win swing votes.

Spanky_McFarksalot: Actually, the ones around here saying the polls haven't mattered recently is the Obama side. Both national and EC polls were routinely posted right up until McCain started taking the lead then it became; 1. national polls don't matter only EC polls (until McCain lead in EC) then it became 2. there are still 2 months left, who cares about polls now.

NOw that Obama is back to taking the lead, polls matter again.

/voting for Obama. Polls don't really matter this early and national polls are meaningless. After the debates is when polls matter.

I don't know who you were listening to but the majority us educated Democrats on here have been talking about the Electoral College all along.

It's really the only thing that matters.

/anyone who has been switching on whether or not they matter are idiots
//it was always going to be a decently close race by measurable standards and freaking out over the McCain immediately naming a VP after the DNC and then having the RNC bump was idiotic
///Obama is going to win this election barring something insane

Another stupid poll. Saint Sarah is the savior of this great country. Don't you doubt it.

10's an outlier, yeah. Still like to see it though, as Colorado is going to pick the president this time around (barring an Obama win in Ohio or Virginia).

RocketVat: I think that Florida is going to be the new Florida, personally

we will not let loose our grasp on the nation so easily. and besides, we get that retard strength, so it's hard to make us let go of something.

fenrael23: Nothing to get too excited about just yet....sample size was just over 500 people.

/GOBAMA 08

When done correctly you do not need insanely high polling numbers to get a conclusion with a small error.

In fact, polling too many people can increase the error.

Blues_X: RadioAaron: COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO

Off topic: That was my Halloween costume one year (complete with Trident.) Not a lot of people got it.

Yeah, that's pretty obviously a bad poll, not that I wouldn't love that information.

/working his ass off in Colorado
//except when on Fark
///Help us out!

Wight Power: /yeah, yeah "polls! polls! polls!"

Colorado has a number of very interesting and polarizing amendments proposed for this ballot that will make turnout very interesting

Particularly interesting is Amendment 48 - Definition of Person which attempts to define a person at fertilization.

This has the potential to get a lot of very conservative voters out (and in theory vote for McCain), or work in reverse.

I like Obama's chances in Colorado in the long run. He really only needs to play hard defense in states like MI, NH, and maybe WI. I just don't see PA really being a battleground when it comes down to it. That permits alot of time and money to invest in CO.

McCain on the other hand has already lost Iowa, and really seems to have lost New Mexico too. If Colorado goes, he loses. But then again he's also having to defend Ohio, Virginia, Florda and maybe Indiana and if any of those go he loses. That's alot of time and money spent playing defense, and since Palin/McCain need to be attached at the hip to get people to show up for McCain's events they don't cover as much ground daily. It's no mistake that Biden has been stumping in the rust belt all week while Obama has been out west until today when he went to Florida.

Looking purely at the EV, Obama just seems to have so much more flexibility than McCain in terms of the number of states he can seriously go after.

CaptMacMillian: USP .45: drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

Kerry:Bush 2004 sticker ratio.

I live in Louisville and I still see W04 stickers.

For serious.

Some idiot plastered those on the back of every sign between Louisville and E-ville on I64.

MonkeyVegetables: CaptMacMillian: USP .45: drnugget: In Denver and the burbs, I see about 10 obama stickers to every 1 mccain sticker. doesn't mean much, but the outward support is for obama. Just what I see.

Kerry:Bush 2004 sticker ratio.

I live in Louisville and I still see W04 stickers.

For serious.

i live in PA and have seen a few W04 stickers i always want to ask them how it worked out for them

When I go back across the Hudson, out in one of the nearby Jersey 'burbs there's a sign out on a fence in front of a business -

"One Down, One to Go!

OSAMA, YOU'RE UP!

God Bless America"

By now, that sign is looking REALLY Goddamned old and weathered. All the time I feel like asking the guy who owns the business if he even realizes that or not.

* 9/19: Hotline/Diageo Pres-Tracker: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

* 9/19: Rasmussen Pres-Tracker: McCain 48%, Obama 48%

* 9/19: Res. 2000 Pres-Tracker: Obama 49%, McCain 42%

* 9/18: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

* 9/19: Marist OH: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

* 9/19: Marist MI: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

* 9/19: Marist PA: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

* 9/18: InsiderAdvantage CO: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

guilt by association

There we go :D

scseth: Colorado has a number of very interesting and polarizing amendments proposed for this ballot that will make turnout very interesting. Particularly interesting is Amendment 48 - Definition of Person which attempts to define a person at fertilization. This has the potential to get a lot of very conservative voters out (and in theory vote for McCain), or work in reverse."

58 will be key. (new window)

Hobodeluxe: * 9/19: Hotline/Diageo Pres-Tracker: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

* 9/19: Rasmussen Pres-Tracker: McCain 48%, Obama 48%

* 9/19: Res. 2000 Pres-Tracker: Obama 49%, McCain 42%

* 9/19: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

* 9/19: Marist OH: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

* 9/19: Marist MI: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

* 9/19: Marist PA: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

* 9/18: InsiderAdvantage CO: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

FTFY

Wight Power: There we go :D

Good to see some farkers like my work. :P

Hobodeluxe: * 9/19: Hotline/Diageo Pres-Tracker: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

* 9/19: Rasmussen Pres-Tracker: McCain 48%, Obama 48%

* 9/19: Res. 2000 Pres-Tracker: Obama 49%, McCain 42%

* 9/18: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

* 9/19: Marist OH: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

* 9/19: Marist MI: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

* 9/19: Marist PA: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

* 9/18: InsiderAdvantage CO: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

* 9/19: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

Polls matter again after not mattering again before mattering?

canyoneer: scseth: Colorado has a number of very interesting and polarizing amendments proposed for this ballot that will make turnout very interesting. Particularly interesting is Amendment 48 - Definition of Person which attempts to define a person at fertilization. This has the potential to get a lot of very conservative voters out (and in theory vote for McCain), or work in reverse."

says a lot about the candidate and the party when you have to put wedge issue referendums on the ballot to get your people to the polls.
58 will be key. (new window)

mesohorny: Polls matter again after not mattering again before mattering?

still doesn't matter.

This is almost certainly an outlier - but outliers can tell us a lot about the actual state of the race.

Basically, +10 is probably overstating Obama support, but statistically speaking it's far, far more likely that it's overstating a true 3-4 point Obama lead by 6-7 points than that it's overstating a true 3-4 point McCain lead by 13-14 points. Outliers aren't accurate in their pure numbers, but they almost always shed some light on who's truly ahead.

The latest "brilliance" from Sarah Palin:


"Oil and coal? Of course, it's a fungible commodity and they don't flag, you know, the molecules, where it's going and where it's not. But in the sense of the Congress today, they know that there are very, very hungry domestic markets that need that oil first. So, I believe that what Congress is going to do, also, is not to allow the export bans to such a degree that it's Americans that get stuck to holding the bag without the energy source that is produced here, pumped here. It's got to flow into our domestic markets first," -- Sarah Palin, Energy Expert and University of Idaho graduate in sports journalism.


I have changed my mind completely. God, I effing love this woman.