For those of you who are still angry at Nader, watch Barr prevent McCain from winning Washington

filth: For those of you who are still angry at Nader, watch Barr prevent McCain from winning Washington

Or, watch Obama win Washington by a shiatload with no difficulty. You know, reality.

I live in a 65-70% Republican state, so I feel obligated to vote for Barr to improve the odds for third parties in the future. McCain will win soundly here, but I really don't care if Obama wins either--I'm curious to see if his "change" can put its money where its mouth is.

/The New Malaise Voter

robsul82: filth: For those of you who are still angry at Nader, watch Barr prevent McCain from winning Washington

Or, watch Obama win Washington by a shiatload with no difficulty. You know, reality.

Perhaps you should visit electoral-vote.com today.

Yanks_RSJ: electoral-vote.com

Yes, McCain is ahead right now, but, a few things....

OMcCain/Palin are at the "height" of their honeymoon, and the polls are reflecting that. Despite that, the race is essentially "tied" right now, especially in the EV.

The novelty is going to wear off soon, and then the debates will start. Which, unless something odd happens, Obama and Biden should do better than their opponents in the debates.

As some others have pointed out as well, McCain/Palin's gains in overall vote polls seem to be coming mostly from huge gains in states they will already win handily anyway (Mountain west, deep south, etc). If McCain is getting a 4-5% national bounce from 10-15% increases in Idaho, Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, etc, that really has no effect on the Electoral College.

Thirdly, McCain has not been able to flip ANY states in a any poll to his side from the democrats. Some are getting "close" (Washington, Michigan), but, again, this is at the height of "Palin-mania", which will subside in another 2-3 weeks. Obama had as many as 6-7 states flipped a week or two again, and I think that will come around again.

Yes, Obama needs to "flip" more than just 16 electoral votes (right now, Colorado and Iowa). I actually have doubts on if Colorado will really be flipped. I have more confidence in NM & NV, which of course brings us to the 269-269 tie setting. At that point, electors have been known to vote the opposite of the state. It would be interesting if the campaigns would be trying to go after the electors to get them to buck their state, much like the campaigning towards the "Superdelegates" in the dem primary.

dletter: The novelty is going to wear off soon, and then the debates will start. Which, unless something odd happens, Obama and Biden should do better than their opponents in the debates.

All I was pointing out is that nobody should be expecting an "easy" victory in November, and certainly not at this point when McCain is leading the polls and on the electoral vote map.

It should be noted as well that McCain has fewer potential states to flip, since there are many more "red" states than there are "blue" ones.

When you remove California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland and the entirety of New England which are all strongly democratic and always will be, there aren't many chances for McCain to flip a state, and he doesn't really need to.

Yanks_RSJ: entirety of New England which are all strongly democratic and always will be,

I'm from New Hampshire, so I'm getting a Republican kick out of your reply.

/I expect NH to go blue this year, BECAUSE of Sarah Palin. Three weeks ago, I said NH would vote for McCain.

Popular vote is irrelevant. There's a 9% chance that McCain will win that and still lose. Why? All he's done is make red states redder. It makes no difference if Obama loses Oklahoma by 30 points or 40 points.

Obama still has a clear path to victory in the electoral vote.

ZebZamboni: Popular vote is irrelevant. There's a 9% chance that McCain will win that and still lose. Why? All he's done is make red states redder. It makes no difference if Obama loses Oklahoma by 30 points or 40 points.

Obama still has a clear path to victory in the electoral vote.

THIS.
I never understood why anyone would care about the popular vote. It doesn't matter, just ask Gore.

Enough with the polls! Yeesh

You like McCain you hate your country.

I don't want to get into details, but if you want to I will debate you the ends of the earth. I really do feel you hate your country and I have rhetorical evidence to back up my assertion.

robsul82: Or, watch Obama win Washington by a shiatload with no difficulty. You know, reality.

It is this type of thinking that makes you a loser.

what_now: /I expect NH to go blue this year, BECAUSE of Sarah Palin. Three weeks ago, I said NH would vote for McCain.

That's interesting. Can you expound on that at all? When I first read your post, I thought you mis-typed.

dletter: Yanks_RSJ: electoral-vote.com



The novelty is going to wear off soon, and then the debates will start. Which, unless something odd happens, Obama and Biden should do better than their opponents in the debates.


I am not sure that the Obama camp believes that. If it were the case, I would think that they would be jumping on as many debates as possible. From what I heard, the McCain camp requested far more than the 3-4 "debates" they are having.

Don't ask for a citation, I don't remember where I heard that.

ZebZamboni: Popular vote is irrelevant. There's a 9% chance that McCain will win that and still lose. Why? All he's done is make red states redder. It makes no difference if Obama loses Oklahoma by 30 points or 40 points.

Obama still has a clear path to victory in the electoral vote.

Not completely true - the GOP base in swing states is motivated and their ground operations have been mobilized, hence their bump in the polls in places like New Jersey, North Carolina, Washington, Florida, and Missouri. It looks like McCain might be losing some of his much-needed independents in Ohio and Michigan, though. Obama needs to take the fight directly to McCain's crooked face in order to energize the Democrat's ground campaign.

Holy shiat!
McCain is now in the lead on Electoral vote.com. First time ever. What's going on in the Obama camp? Are they doing something wrong or is McCain just beating them?

Link (new window)

Keep on looking at the national polls, Republicans.

Never mind that is not a national election, it is a 50 state election plus the District of Columbia.

From Rasmuusen:

"New state polls from Washington and Michigan show no change in the Electoral College projections. With these changes, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 189 Electoral College votes. When "leaners" are included, it's Obama 259, McCain 247. "

There's a whole lot of Palin fever around since she was chosen for McCain's VP slot (heh-heh - VP slot). It's created a buzz and popularity that is simply impossible to hold up. It's like there's an ideal of Sarah Palin amongst the populace that is much better than any human can actually be. The more she does interviews and the more she does debates the more that her popularity level will have to go down among the "Palin's Perfect" crowd.

Drunk Astronaut: Never mind that is not a national election, it is a 50 state election plus the District of Columbia.

I thought it was 57?

Wait, polls matter now?

Each side keeps telling me they don't.

Johnny Savage: McCain camp requested far more than the 3-4 "debates" they are having.

McCain wanted a bunch of town-hall style meetings, which is the environment where he's most comfortable.

I really wish liberals would stop referring to Mrs. Palin as the "vice" presidential nominee. It's sexist. I'd prefer her to be called the "equally qualified yet graciously willing to allow a man to lead" presidential nominee.

JDAT: Holy shiat!
McCain is now in the lead on Electoral vote.com. First time ever. What's going on in the Obama camp? Are they doing something wrong or is McCain just beating them?

Link (new window)

If you must know, right now, Sarah Palin is beating them.

I'm not sure John McCain is aware of what is actually going on.

M-G: McCain wanted a bunch of town-hall style meetings, which is the environment where he's most comfortable.

And Obama wants formal debates so he can say his pre-canned lines and pontificate for 2 minutes while never really answering a question.

To bad Palin-drones are more interested in whether or not this woman can kill a moose rather than the fact that she led the whole entire united state in pork spending.

JDAT: I thought it was 57?

HAHA! That's really funny! Did you come up with that yourself? Cuz I remember like five months ago Obama said '57 states' and you, you remembered it and put it in a post when somebody used the CORRECT number of states. That's really good. It's just a subtle jab... And yet, you've taken that and used it out of context to insult Obama in this everyday situation. God, what a clever, smart farker you must be, to come up with that joke all by yourself. That's so fresh, too. Any Titanic jokes, you want to throw at me, as long as we're hitting these phenomena at the height of their popularity? Because I'm here. God, you're so funny.

The Great Gazoo: There's a whole lot of Palin fever around since she was chosen for McCain's VP slot (heh-heh - VP slot). It's created a buzz and popularity that is simply impossible to hold up. It's like there's an ideal of Sarah Palin amongst the populace that is much better than any human can actually be. The more she does interviews and the more she does debates the more that her popularity level will have to go down among the "Palin's Perfect" crowd.


I agree. This is countered by the fact that most people are just now tuning into what is going on. It will be interesting to see if the unbridled popularity that Obama had, that has sinced diminished, has reached a plateau or will continue to fall once the average voter pays attention.

Big surprise. They usually slant to the right. The Rasputin Poll organization is owned by a Evangelical Christian.

Have Republican policies ever been implemented with successful results?

Do they really provide the benefits those who support them promise?

Can anyone give me ONE example of a Republican economic, foreign, or domestic policy that has benefited the country as a whole since the days of Reagan?

Darconix: Darconix came here for the libs start spouting "b-b-but the electoral college" and is presently pleased.

Dick

McCain taking the lead on EV and 538 is a result of state polls reflecting the bounce. Kinda like how Obama was getting over 300 during the week of the RNC, due to *his* bounce.

But since there's nothing else going on between now and the Stevens trial, the media's focusing on how McCain is edging ahead, and said trend is the story.

The story now is Palin's interview and Obama's new ads; she is getting mixed reviews at best and I think most Dems are glad Obama is trying to fight back. I'd like to see how independent focus groups went on Palin's interview and the McCain 'sex ed to five year olds' ads.

My wife, an Obama-leaning Republican, called Palin clueless when I played some of the clips -- she did like Palin's answer to the 'would you be ready' question but thought she was clueless on the 'war with Russia' and 'Bush doctrine' areas.

When reasonable folks like Joe Klein are calling her a 'joke,' something's up. (Remember he made fun of Clinton in Primary Colors.)

filth: For those of you who are still angry at Nader, watch Barr prevent McCain from winning Washington

Now that would be funny. Well not really but it would be fun to watch GOP melt down.

Polls are Bullshiat

/this is all

Darconix: Darconix came here for the libs start spouting "b-b-but the electoral college" and is presently pleased.

We're mobilized. You can run your mouth for the next fifty days. I can't wait for you to shiat your pants when you hear "Texas goes to Obama." We'll drag you Republicans into a better America kicking and screaming. Enjoy the better government, you'll thank us!

Darconix: MugzyBrown: And Obama wants formal debates so he can say his pre-canned lines and pontificate for 2 minutes while never really answering a question.

If I were McCain I would insist on Town Hall meetings, claiming they're the type of debate America wants, not biased media talking heads throwing curveballs. And if Obama doesn't play ball, fark him. McCain doesn't need to win debates to win the election at this point.

Well if I were McCain and kick Palin to the curb, pick up a better veep, tell the fundies to fark off, and start working on ways to improve the country instead of continuing the Bush policies, should I get elected.

afxjzs

Hoary was the dictionary.com word of the day today, so I get your joke!

Darconix: If I were McCain I would insist on Town Hall meetings, claiming they're the type of debate America wants, not biased media talking heads throwing curveballs. And if Obama doesn't play ball, fark him. McCain doesn't need to win debates to win the election at this point.

America would love to see the two candidates square off and answer questions from the voter; to be able to address one another; to allow the voter ask a follow up.


The normal debates are pointless:

Senator Obama, please explain how you intend to pay for proposals and balance the budget.

That's a great question and I'm glad you asked it, but I'd like to address first the reasons why I was right when I said I was against the war in Iraq.

Goodfella: Big surprise. They usually slant to the right. The Rasputin Poll organization is owned by a Evangelical Christian.

Except every poll has shifted in that direction. The more time we spend denying the momentum change in this campaign, the less time we spend turning it back around.

/Yes we can!

It's sad that the day after her non-interview that ended in her showing her idiocy when it came to basic foreign policy, her numbers actually go up.

America, you're lost to us now.

lexslamman: ZebZamboni: Popular vote is irrelevant. There's a 9% chance that McCain will win that and still lose. Why? All he's done is make red states redder. It makes no difference if Obama loses Oklahoma by 30 points or 40 points.

Obama still has a clear path to victory in the electoral vote.

Not completely true - the GOP base in swing states is motivated and their ground operations have been mobilized, hence their bump in the polls in places like New Jersey, North Carolina, Washington, Florida, and Missouri. It looks like McCain might be losing some of his much-needed independents in Ohio and Michigan, though. Obama needs to take the fight directly to McCain's crooked face in order to energize the Democrat's ground campaign.

PoofyMonoke: Polls are Bullshiat

/this is all

Since they only poll landlines and not cell-only voters (younger generally) I tend to agree.

Ok, will the polls still count when they swing back in Obama's favour?

T-Luv: We'll drag you Republicans into a better America kicking and screaming. Enjoy the better government, you'll thank us!

That's a really, really scary mentality.

Testiclaw

I like it.

Drunk Astronaut: lexslamman: ZebZamboni: Popular vote is irrelevant. There's a 9% chance that McCain will win that and still lose. Why? All he's done is make red states redder. It makes no difference if Obama loses Oklahoma by 30 points or 40 points.

Obama still has a clear path to victory in the electoral vote.

Not completely true - the GOP base in swing states is motivated and their ground operations have been mobilized, hence their bump in the polls in places like New Jersey, North Carolina, Washington, Florida, and Missouri. It looks like McCain might be losing some of his much-needed independents in Ohio and Michigan, though. Obama needs to take the fight directly to McCain's crooked face in order to energize the Democrat's ground campaign.

PoofyMonoke: Polls are Bullshiat

/this is all

Since they only poll landlines and not cell-only voters (younger generally) I tend to agree.

Amen brother This This and so much This

Rasmussen does three-day running polls to eliminate noise. Let's wait until next week, when Palin's embarrassment last night (to be continued tonight!) has had some time to sink in.

I think Obama's only hope is to focus this election back towards the issues and away from negative record distortion. That's really all he has to do, on the other hand. The independents will return if he can make them pay attention to Palin's shortcomings and his own intelligence and eloquence in real matters.

lexslamman: Have Republican policies ever been implemented with successful results?

Do they really provide the benefits those who support them promise?

Can anyone give me ONE example of a Republican economic, foreign, or domestic policy that has benefited the country as a whole since the days of Reagan?


1. Welfare reform in the 90's

2. Very decent argument that the tax cuts in the 80's allowed the American investor to spend money on the emerging technology sector in the 90's

3. Expanded defense spending in the 80's forcing the Soviet Union to try and keep up while their major resource was only pulling in about $20/barrel. Thus, we win the cold war.

4. Bush's tax cuts have increased revenues to the federal government.

In fact, the only republican policies that have been dismal failures recently are the ones that massively expand the federal government (which is a very democrat thing to do).

MugzyBrown: Darconix:
America would love to see the two candidates square off and answer questions from the voter; to be able to address one another; to allow the voter ask a follow up.

That would be good if the Town Halls are stocked with regular voters, not preplaced shills tossing softballs and/or gotchas.