Cue "Obama's gonna lose"

Cue "Polls mean schiat until October"

Cue "Let's see what happens when Palin starts having to answer questions without reading from a script"

Did I miss anything?

Shrew2u: Cue "Obama's gonna lose"

Cue "Polls mean schiat until October"

Cue "Let's see what happens when Palin starts having to answer questions without reading from a script"

Did I miss anything?

IT"S A DEAD HEAT YOR" ALL SCREWRD!

Shrew2u: Cue "Obama's gonna lose"

Cue "Polls mean schiat until October"

Cue "Let's see what happens when Palin starts having to answer questions without reading from a script"

Did I miss anything?

"Obama still leads in the EC"

McCain's empty suit temporarily looks better than Obama's empty suit.

Unfortunately, Bob Barr's suit has 80s porn mustache wax on it, and Cynthia McKinney's suit comes with a whirring beanie lined with tinfoil, so they're not going to be seen as alternatives.

Lionel Mandrake: Shrew2u: Cue "Obama's gonna lose"

Cue "Polls mean schiat until October"

Cue "Let's see what happens when Palin starts having to answer questions without reading from a script"

Did I miss anything?

"Obama still leads in the EC"

"Weren't Kerry and Gore leading at this point in 2004 and 2000?"

"The only poll that matters is the one in November"

"__________ is just getting a convention bump and it will be back to normal 2nd week of September"

2 questions.

1. Is Bristol 18 yet?
2. If not, will she be 18 when she's closer to her due date?

/Pregger chicks are hot.

Someone better give credit for this headline to Bill Maher.

wil: Someone better give credit for this headline to Bill Maher.

Is Biden a Farker?

/if so - no attribution shall be made

I dont believe these polls

We learned in the 2000 election, it's the not the total number of votes, but in which states those votes were cast.

Shrew2u: wil: Someone better give credit for this headline to Bill Maher.

Is Biden a Farker?

/if so - no attribution shall be made

Now that is the funny. Well played.

The fact that this election is so close just shows me one thing: this country can never be unified. We have two polar opposites -- and the country is near 50-50 on the two of them, with brief fluxes. McCain has been in the news lately, Obama hasn't. It'll switch sooner than later. And probably switch again and again and again before the only day that it really matters -- election day.

But no matter what happens, about half the country is going to be deeply disappointed and unhappy with their leaders. That's a problem for the country, going forward, I think. The sad thing is that a lot of the division is social issues/personal decisions the government wants to mandate. Obviously, people are also looking for tax stances that benefit them, and policies that meet their idea of what the government should provide... but this country is extremely, deeply divided.

Will it ever be possible for the US to overcome this? Or will this division ultimately be an un-doing for the country? There's next to no "national standard" when it comes to anything -- I think John Edwards did have it right when he spoke of "two Americas." There kind of are -- how do you please both the "left" and the "right"? Or at the very least, not grossly alienate one of them?

/been thinking about this a lot lately.

serpent_sky: The fact that this election is so close just shows me one thing: this country can never be unified. We have two polar opposites -- and the country is near 50-50 on the two of them, with brief fluxes. McCain has been in the news lately, Obama hasn't. It'll switch sooner than later. And probably switch again and again and again before the only day that it really matters -- election day.

But no matter what happens, about half the country is going to be deeply disappointed and unhappy with their leaders. That's a problem for the country, going forward, I think. The sad thing is that a lot of the division is social issues/personal decisions the government wants to mandate. Obviously, people are also looking for tax stances that benefit them, and policies that meet their idea of what the government should provide... but this country is extremely, deeply divided.

Will it ever be possible for the US to overcome this? Or will this division ultimately be an un-doing for the country? There's next to no "national standard" when it comes to anything -- I think John Edwards did have it right when he spoke of "two Americas." There kind of are -- how do you please both the "left" and the "right"? Or at the very least, not grossly alienate one of them?

/been thinking about this a lot lately.

Read the book, "The Second Civil War" by Ronald Brownstein. It is long and dry at points, but there are at least a few chapters on this. Basically as I remember one of his (among other supporting) arguments in super condensed form:

1) congress doesn't like tough reelections (since they're every 2 years) so both sides wink and nod at gerrymandering districts to give them a roughly 50-50 balance where in many there is no real opponent, except in the primaries.
2) Thus the real election is between two candidates who are in the same party
3) They have to try to either "out-liberal" or "out-conservative" each other (see: tough on crime, war on drugs, etc...)
4) thus the debate is shaped around the fringes in many areas, people absorb this.
5) the *more-republican/democratic* candidate wins and governs, moving both parties from the center, especially on wedge issues (god, guns, gays, gold) as each party becomes more ideologically unanimous on them, thus preventing Blue-dog Dems and Rockefeller Reps.
6) Profit

7-500) there was a lot on the actual working of government, leadership and committee positions, etc etc etc etc etc. again, most of it was dry (quite detailed) but interesting.

Good one, subby


/NObama '08

Shrew2u: Cue "Obama's gonna lose"

Cue "Polls mean schiat until October"

Cue "Let's see what happens when Palin starts having to answer questions without reading from a script"

Did I miss anything?

Yeah, I was gonna say these are national polls and Obama still rules the electoral map

Shrew2u: wil: Someone better give credit for this headline to Bill Maher.

Is Biden a Farker?

/if so - no attribution shall be made

Well done.

It's a convention bump. All candidates get them -- they just got free advertising on prime-time television.

And they almost all go away. Let's talk in a couple of weeks.

Must've been that rousing "Stand up! Fight with me! GARRRRGH" part of his speech.

It gave me chills, but not the good kind. I kinda thought I might puke.

Who are these retards who change their minds every day?

bulldg4life: "Weren't Kerry and Gore leading at this point in 2004 and 2000?"

No, Kerry wasn't anyway.

Link (new window)

DanUFfan: Good one, subby


/NObama '08

Man, every time I see your name in a thread, I think to myself, "There's no way DanUFfan can top his last performance. And then you post "NObama" or that same pic you always post, and I realize I was right.

serpent_sky Will it ever be possible for the US to overcome this? Or will this division ultimately be an un-doing for the country?

Excepting for only brief periods of dominance for one party or the other, most of this country's history has been marked by the near parity between the capitalist and anti-capitalist parties. The only thing remarkable about the last 12 years is just how close it has been.

I guess Diebold controls the polls too!

Behold the power of lies and fear!

Seriously, name one democratic stance or policy the Republicans ranted against that they themselves aren't doing.

Shrew2u: Did I miss anything?

RON PAUL!

Woohoo, greenlight!

This might seem like a dumb question but, if your party's convention pretty much guarantee's you a bump why not hold conventions in late October? It's not like the conventions serve a purpose beyond self promotion anymore anyway.

Andric: Must've been that rousing "Stand up! Fight with me! GARRRRGH" part of his speech.

It gave me chills, but not the good kind. I kinda thought I might puke.

Yeah I had to turn the TV off at that point.
I don't want to stand and fight with him. We're not fighting for anything worthwhile! We've been fighting for seven years for jack @#$%! Five and a half of those in a war we should never have started! DONE FIGHTING THANK YOU, now get me a @#$%ing job, some health care, and a sustainable energy plan plzkthnx

/going out to volunteer for the obama campaign this week after watching the RNC
//not even kidding

Yukon Callmeal: serpent_sky Will it ever be possible for the US to overcome this? Or will this division ultimately be an un-doing for the country?

Excepting for only brief periods of dominance for one party or the other, most of this country's history has been marked by the near parity between the capitalist and anti-capitalist parties. The only thing remarkable about the last 12 years is just how close it has been.

Really? Try again.

Lionel Mandrake [TotalFark] Quote 2008-09-07 02:47:25 PM
Shrew2u: Cue "Obama's gonna lose"

Cue "Polls mean schiat until October"

Cue "Let's see what happens when Palin starts having to answer questions without reading from a script"

Did I miss anything?

"Obama still leads in the EC"

Also:
What do under 3000 really tell us

dogfood: Who are these retards who change their minds every day?

The people who don't read the news or keep themselves informed (i.e., the vast majority of the population, sadly).

ODDwhun: This might seem like a dumb question but, if your party's convention pretty much guarantee's you a bump why not hold conventions in late October? It's not like the conventions serve a purpose beyond self promotion anymore anyway.

Because the legal purpose of the convention is to nominate a candidate, and there are deadlines to actually have a candidate nominated. The conventions this year were, at best, pushing that deadline.

McCain's bump is bigger than Bristol's

That's what she said.

Obama still rules the electoral map

Not according to NPR. And very few of the results they have factored in were from polls taken after the GOP convention.

If McCain is up nationally by 3, he's ahead in the Electoral map as well, you can be certain.

/Of course, he might not really be up by 3 nationally. Keep hope alive!

Yukon Callmeal: Excepting for only brief periods of dominance for one party or the other, most of this country's history has been marked by the near parity between the capitalist and anti-capitalist parties.

Uh, if you think either party is "anti-capitalist", you're a nutter.

The two parties simply debate on whether companies should or shouldn't be required to use lube on the consumer and taxpayer.

Calm down people:



Link (new window)

"I'm pro-contraception, and I think kids who may not hear about it at home should hear about it in other avenues," -- Sarah Palin. Her daughter, no so much.

The bump means little, long term (two weeks)
It will be the debates and the unquestioned new voters that will decide the race.
Gallup and the rest question likely voters (Voters with a prior voting history) and Obama has 4 MILLION new and fresh faces that his people are directly responsible for getting registered.
Given the small numbers that a GWB won (lost popular) in his first election against Gore, who by the way, disaffected Bill Clinton fans by not including him in his run for the whitehouse or against Kerry who was mediocre with the people at best, it seems highly likely that the polls are going to be suprisingly inaccurate when the polls close in November.

And as Palin, who believes that the Iraq War is God's Will, the world is only 5000 years old, women have no right to control their own uterus, even when RAPED or impregnated by their DADDY, i seriously doubt that the Bump will last.

But we'll see the results soon enough.

Larry Mahnken: ODDwhun: This might seem like a dumb question but, if your party's convention pretty much guarantee's you a bump why not hold conventions in late October? It's not like the conventions serve a purpose beyond self promotion anymore anyway.

Because the legal purpose of the convention is to nominate a candidate, and there are deadlines to actually have a candidate nominated. The conventions this year were, at best, pushing that deadline.

Thanks, now that you mention it I remember hearing that both parties missed the deadline in Texas, that explains a lot.

lerry: 2 questions.

1. Is Bristol 18 yet?
2. If not, will she be 18 when she's closer to her due date?

PresidentPutz: Gallup and the rest question likely voters (Voters with a prior voting history) and Obama has 4 MILLION new and fresh faces that his people are directly responsible for getting registered.

OK, I'm a gung-ho Obama supporter, but that's the exact same argument the Paultards used in the primaries. "They're not polling the right people!" Let's not go there, eh?

I'd love to see the youth vote break records this year, but I'm by no means counting on it - it has been overestimated each election.

And

RCP (new window)

Effectively there is a tie.

From beiong behind to being in a tie isn't the bump that the RNC expected, but then again, they were pandering to their extreme right base too.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Democracy just doesn't work

dustman81: We learned in the 2000 election, it's the not the total number of votes, but in which states those votes were cast.

In other words, Obama will "steal" the election like Bush did.

SeismicJizzer: Calm down people:



Link (new window)

That's going to swing strongly in the next several days towards McCain as new state polling comes out, though it shouldn't go much over 50% towards McCain.

For those wondering, the Electoral Vote thing isn't the important part, it's the Win Percentage. The EVs are dividing up the electoral votes in each state divided by how likely each candidate is to win each state based on current data. So if McCain has a 10% chance of winning California, it would assign him 5.5 electoral votes from California, which is of course not how it works. So it gives you an idea of how things are going, but not the way you think.

The Win Percentage, however, is the percentage of times that Obama wins the necessary number of electoral votes in the winner-take-all situations. Because the real important swing states (Colorado, Ohio and Virginia -- Obama's probably as likely to win Florida as McCain is to win Michigan or Pennsylvania) are ones that McCain needs to *sweep* to win. He can't win unless he wins all three of those states, and he's about 50/50 with all of them, and will remain about 50/50 all the way into November.

You'd figure Obama would win at least one of the three more often than not, so Obama is more likely to win than McCain.

James Brown: I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Democracy just doesn't work

That's why I thank God that America is a Republic.

James Brown: I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Democracy just doesn't work

As Winston Churchill said, democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other forms of governments we've had. There's got to be a better way, but it's the best we've got right now.

ceejayoz,

But this time we have 8 years of hell leadership and a challenger with Charisma that Kerry and Gore couldn't muster on their absolute best day, ever.

I think we are gonna see this little bump fade and then recede, especially when McCain stands opposite Obama in the three debates and when Palin tries toi Bulldog a mucher more practiced and powerful Bulldog that is Joe Biden.
And if they should play the "Sexist" card, Biden has a strong and glorious record of fighting for women to stand on.

It will be interesting but I don't see Obama losing, short of a HUGE scandal.