well either that or it took Republicans a week full of "us vs. them" rally speeches and dedicated network coverage to pull back to even.

good luck holding onto that tie for the next 60 days.

ISTM suspect to put faith in any poll taken during a holiday week.

Oh man... oh man... if you wave your big red foam Team #1 hand even faster you could still win the big game !!!

Wait, this is about the country and not just your team ? Hell, don't let that stop you from cheering.

baorao: well either that or it took Republicans a week full of "us vs. them" rally speeches and dedicated network coverage to pull back to even.

There was no "us" this week, just "them". I heard next to nothing on how McCain is going to fix the US. This country is in shambles thanks to the Republican party, and they spent all week telling us how terrible Obama would be for the country.

John Paul Jones: baorao: well either that or it took Republicans a week full of "us vs. them" rally speeches and dedicated network coverage to pull back to even.

There was no "us" this week, just "them". I heard next to nothing on how McCain is going to fix the US. This country is in shambles thanks to the Republican party, and they spent all week telling us how terrible Obama would be for the country.

But McSame is a reformer!

/who just happens to have been in Washington since 1982
//just because you keep saying it doesn't make it true

TFA Neither the Gallup or Rasmussen daily tracking polls have registered a significant drop in Obama's support

CBS's findings... is particularly noteworthy because generally Obama runs stronger in the CBS poll than in other surveys.

I'm used to headlines blatantly differing with the content. But two paragraphs in the same 4 paragraph article? Fail.

John Paul Jones: I heard next to nothing on how McCain is going to fix the US.

Ok, so you heard it all then.

It's one CBS poll. One. I'll get interested when this get corroborated by another poll and by one that is known to be unbiased.

Since when do Republicans listen to polls anyway? Oh right, when it makes Dems look bad.

Of course, this was before that rousing speech last night....

Ah, autumn. When the polls are ripe for cherry-picking.

But you're right, FiveThirtyEight.com is showing a tightening race. Will Obama get more than 300 EVs?

The thing the polls will never show is how many white people are saying they'll vote for Obama to not appear racist when questioned but who will do otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.

It was mentioned in a HuffPo (new window) post back in June. The relevant section...

"The third group is made up of white men who won't tell pollsters that they're too racist to vote for a black man, but inside the voting booth, they'll vote for a white man every time.

Obama doesn't seem to have a rat's chance at a cat convention with these guys. They're the ones his supporters really fear. They won't surface willingly. They're the kind of guys who like to say "There are n----s and then there are black people. I don't have any problem with black people. It's the n----s, I don't like."

Only time will tell how many will show up on the only day that counts.

Also, about that Chosen One bullshiat:

/damn throw-away image

Instant Karma: The thing the polls will never show is how many white people are saying they'll vote for Obama to not appear racist when questioned but who will do otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.

Yeah, you try to post the "racist doctrine" in every political thread. Guess what? There are many states where people don't care what color he is. Although of of them are in the North and the West, sometimes that's all you need.

Bladel: But you're right, FiveThirtyEight.com is showing a tightening race. Will Obama get more than 300 EVs?

Wow, he turned North Carolina?

Also, South Carolina's college football game was on last night against Vanderbilt. Not good for McCain... not that college-educated people will vote for him most of the time, anyway....

Nestea Plunge: The Chosen One

Jesus?

Billy Crystal?

Pauly Shore.

ozone: TFA Neither the Gallup or Rasmussen daily tracking polls have registered a significant drop in Obama's support

CBS's findings... is particularly noteworthy because generally Obama runs stronger in the CBS poll than in other surveys.

I'm used to headlines blatantly differing with the content. But two paragraphs in the same 4 paragraph article? Fail.

that isn't conflicting. it's the author saying "cbs is usually an outlier, so it's probably still an outlier."

HulkHands: Wow, he turned North Carolina?

Um...that'd be Virginia.

John Paul Jones: Nestea Plunge: The Chosen One

Jesus?

Billy Crystal?

Pauly Shore.

Abe Vigoda.

Instant Karma: The thing the polls will never show is how many white people are saying they'll vote for Obama to not appear racist when questioned but who will do otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.

The Bradley effect is persistent, but mythical. From FiveThirtyEight

bikerdiva: John Paul Jones: Nestea Plunge: The Chosen One

Jesus?

Billy Crystal?

Pauly Shore.

Abe Vigoda.

RON PAUL

DeadZone: bikerdiva: John Paul Jones: Nestea Plunge: The Chosen One

Jesus?

Billy Crystal?

Pauly Shore.

Abe Vigoda.

RON PAUL

RON PAUL

Bladel: HulkHands: Wow, he turned North Carolina?

Um...that'd be Virginia.

Haha, sorry. I meant turned not as in flipped over to the Dems, but as in the fact that NC was polling McCain up by an average of 6, and now it's down to 3 - which I find odd, since you would assume that Edwards' promiscuity would hurt the Dems there.

PurplePimpSaber: RON PAUL

He was on Colbert last night. I need to watch that.

HulkHands: Instant Karma: The thing the polls will never show is how many white people are saying they'll vote for Obama to not appear racist when questioned but who will do otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.

Yeah, you try to post the "racist doctrine" in every political thread. Guess what? There are many states where people don't care what color he is. Although of of them are in the North and the West, sometimes that's all you need.

Bladel: But you're right, FiveThirtyEight.com is showing a tightening race. Will Obama get more than 300 EVs?

Wow, he turned North Carolina?

Also, South Carolina's college football game was on last night against Vanderbilt. Not good for McCain... not that college-educated people will vote for him most of the time, anyway....

The interesting thing is that everyone who doesn't want to look racist can now be proactive and point to Palin as the reason for the vote. Having something simple and immediately acceptable at face value to vote FOR should effectively neutralize any apparent "Bradley Effect".

(As an aside, the "Bradley Effect" itself is misnamed when all facts are accounted for. In that gubernatorial race, Bradley did indeed get the larger number of votes...of those who showed up at the polls on election day. So the exit polls were accurate. Dukmejian has the ABSENTEE BALLOT to thank for his win - the little old ladies who send in their ballots long before election day arrives voted overwhelmingly for Dukmejian, enough to counteract Bradley's advantage at the polls on election day.)

John Paul Jones: Pauly Shore.

Buuuuuu-dy

HulkHands: PurplePimpSaber: RON PAUL

He was on Colbert last night. I need to watch that.

I was going to skip Colbert last night until I heard RON PAUL was going to be on.

RON PAUL

DeadZone: bikerdiva: John Paul Jones: Nestea Plunge: The Chosen One

Jesus?

Billy Crystal?

Pauly Shore.

Abe Vigoda.

RON PAUL

Philip Seymour Hoffman

hillbillypharmacist: Instant Karma: The thing the polls will never show is how many white people are saying they'll vote for Obama to not appear racist when questioned but who will do otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.

The Bradley effect is persistent, but mythical. From FiveThirtyEight

When I saw that I figured I wasted my time talking about the Bradley Effect. Looks like I didn't - and it kinda surprised me that they didn't look at the specific election that spawned the name.

Uhm... Looks like an outlier, more recent polls with larger sample sizes show Obama still has a comfortable lead.

RCP: Obama +3.8
Five Thirty Eight: 311 - 227

The Chosen One is so August 2008.

Ideal Throbing One is the new hotness.

Shrew2u: When I saw that I figured I wasted my time talking about the Bradley Effect. Looks like I didn't - and it kinda surprised me that they didn't look at the specific election that spawned the name.

Yup. Everyone jumped to a plausible, but false, conclusion.

It makes sense when you think about it. Most racists aren't so timid that they would tell some anonymous person over the phone that they're going to vote for a black guy when they aren't. And what would the racists supposedly be avoiding by lying about voting for a black person? It's not like the pollsters are going to say, "OMG, you're voting for the WHITE GUY? What, are you some kind of goddam RACIST?!? I'm telling everyone."

Yawn. I'll check this back in a month. Until then, polls are useless.

Oh goody, another Chosen One headline greened. This new and exciting rhetoric shows that the Republicans are fully embracing change by saying the same damn thing over and over again.

I would have voted for Bill Bradley for president...

One of my concerns is that many of the states where Obama had unexpected wins were caucus states. Where one SEES whom others are supporting. In the privacy of the ballot box I fear folks will feel more comfortable with their prejudices.

But then, I grew up in Ohio. NC (my home for the last 26 years) is much more comfortable with the idea of a black leader than Ohio.

GAT_00: the Republicans are fully embracing change by saying the same damn thing over and over again.

If they repeat it enough, maybe it will become true!

/right after I become King of Spain

Link (new window)
Link (new window)

The metric that counts disagrees.

John McCain is so awesome that he taught a dog to put on lipstick. I'd like to see the messiah do that!

There were several fact-checking links after the Sarah Palin speech. Where are all the fact checkers about McCain's horrible rant? Did all their heads explode or was it just because he never gave any facts and just rambled?

Everyone should go to Pollster.com and look at the state polls.

Now tell me how the hell the McCain wins the electoral college.

Lundah: right after I become King of Spain

Once i was the King of Spain.

Now, of course, i eat humble pie.

CBS/CNN/Fox polls are crap. Wake me up in October.

Unless the national polling starts to indicate a 6%+ gap, pretending you know what's going to happen in November is silly.

Strange that Obama continues to crush McCain in the only poll that matters. (new window)

I thought this race was going to be interesting, sure, but with Palin added to the mix... Oh the huge Manatee. She has been the VP candidate for a week and the easy dirt dug up on her is epic. It doesn't look like that twit had the foresight to bury her "bodies" very deep. I might actually watch the Veep debate.

ichiban: There were several fact-checking links after the Sarah Palin speech. Where are all the fact checkers about McCain's horrible rant? Did all their heads explode or was it just because he never gave any facts and just rambled?

The McCain fact checkers have concluded that yes, cars did in fact exist when John McCain was five years old.

tallguywithglasseson: Other polls have failed to show the same tightening of the race found by CBS. Neither the Gallup or Rasmussen daily tracking polls have registered a significant drop in Obama's support from his post-convention bounce numbers. The Gallup tracking poll, for example, still has Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 42 percent.

Yeah, but that doesn't look like anything to cheer about and isn't an opportunity to engage in mocking, divisive politics [like John McCain said we should, you know, stop doing].

Now, even MORE people in the states that are already in the bag for the Republicans are voting for McCain/Palin! That5 will make a huge difference!

ichiban: There were several fact-checking links after the Sarah Palin speech. Where are all the fact checkers about McCain's horrible rant? Did all their heads explode or was it just because he never gave any facts and just rambled?

I didn't listen to the speech, but I'd imagine that second assertion was the case, yes. It's tough to fact-check when you don't actually talk about any facts.