The Palin pick wasn't about independents, it was about Hillary Clinton supporters.

It seems to be backfiring so far, but day-to-day polling this far in advance is rarely accurate.

Pretty sure Hillary locked most of her supporters in with Obama with her and Bill's speeches, but, again, a lot of things can happen between now and November.

/Caveat: Obama supporter, so, not unbiased.

Cubist Robot Party: The Palin pick wasn't about independents, it was about Hillary Clinton supporters.

And if they were actually operating under that premise when they went with Palin, then I'm going to suggest that they put down the crack pipe. HRC wants to be the first woman elected to the White House. Period. She will do everything short of tearing out someone's throat with her teeth to achieve this, and the only reason she'd not do that is that it would cost her votes. She is going to spend the next few months painting Palin as the antithesis of the womens lib movement, the beauty pageant princess who volunteered to be a baby factory. It's going to be the Hildabeast in her element and at her worst(best?), and it's going to be ugly.

It wasn't about independents and it wasn't about Hillary Voters, it was about Conservatives and it worked. $7 Million dollars raised in two days and voluteerism has skyrocketed.

So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

CanisNoir: It wasn't about independents and it wasn't about Hillary Voters, it was about Conservatives and it worked. $7 Million dollars raised in two days and voluteerism has skyrocketed.

So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

I know maths aren't your strong suit, but try to stay with me here. FTA:

But among the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure.

What that means is that 6% of undecideds ran to McCain, 31% ran to Obama, and the rest stayed put. So with Democratic registration numbers up, GOP registration numbers down, and 31% of the undecideds splitting off and deciding for Obama, things are looking dark for the Repubs.

CanisNoir: So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

It isn't. Maybe you should read the article and find out why.

CanisNoir: So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

Your math is correct based on numbers you made up. But if you actually RTFA:

But among the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure. More to the point: among undecideds, 59 percent said Palin was unready to be president. Only 6 percent said she was. If the first criterion for any job is whether you're ready for it, this is a pretty major indictment of the first act of McCain's presidential leadership.

MacEnvy: CanisNoir: So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

It isn't. Maybe you should read the article and find out why.

Maybe you should fix your sarcasto-meter.

Jesus... Didn't the initial comments regarding "This isn't about independants" clue you into the fact that the 31% number is meaningless - therefore allowing me to be a smart-arse regarding the 69%?

Logic and Reading Comprehension.... (sigh)....

I'll give you a pass Occam :P

CanisNoir: Maybe you should fix your sarcasto-meter.

My sarcasto-meter broke when I found out that McCain wasn't kidding about nominating Palin. It's been all wonky since then.

Well then, let's change tack, shall we?

"This isn't about independents" is about as short-sighted and ignorant a statement as "caucus states don't count". McCain already had the base. Sure, some would've stayed home, but damn near every last one of the voters McCain has currently were either voting GOP or nobody. And quite simply put, McCain can't win on the base alone. From just the initial reaction, it looks like Palin's not going to help with the undecideds and independents upon which this election hinges. The purple states are trending bluer, and that spells disaster for McCain. So basically McCain has two options: First, he can throw the GOP under the bus to appeal to centrists in hopes of getting a win. Once he's in office, he makes nice with the party insiders, who have the attention span of a fruit fly anyways. Second, he clings to the old 3Gs(God, Guns, Gays) and Abortion and goes down with the GOP's horribly rotting ship.

Occam's Chainsaw: Well then, let's change tack, shall we?

"This isn't about independents" is about as short-sighted and ignorant a statement as "caucus states don't count". McCain already had the base. Sure, some would've stayed home, but damn near every last one of the voters McCain has currently were either voting GOP or nobody. And quite simply put, McCain can't win on the base alone. From just the initial reaction, it looks like Palin's not going to help with the undecideds and independents upon which this election hinges. The purple states are trending bluer, and that spells disaster for McCain. So basically McCain has two options: First, he can throw the GOP under the bus to appeal to centrists in hopes of getting a win. Once he's in office, he makes nice with the party insiders, who have the attention span of a fruit fly anyways. Second, he clings to the old 3Gs(God, Guns, Gays) and Abortion and goes down with the GOP's horribly rotting ship.

Sometimes I hate the filter here at work. Typing this for the (sigh) Second time.

Okay, here's why I think you're looking at this the wrong way. Palin was chosen to shore up his Base and give him some breathing room to return to that old *Maverick* that independants claim they miss. People vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom, so if McCain wants to win Independants, HE's got to do it - I'm taking a guess, but Biden doesn't strike me as the centrist.

By choosing Palin, McCain covers his arse with the conservative base and gives himself some breathing room to woo independants without alienating the right. I don't care how many independants flock to Palin atm, that's not her job, her job is to HOLD THE BASE. She seems to be doing a decent job of that.

/Not as well worded as the first time I typed it though damnit :(

CanisNoir: Okay, here's why I think you're looking at this the wrong way. Palin was chosen to shore up his Base and give him some breathing room to return to that old *Maverick* that independants claim they miss. People vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom, so if McCain wants to win Independants, HE's got to do it - I'm taking a guess, but Biden doesn't strike me as the centrist.

By choosing Palin, McCain covers his arse with the conservative base and gives himself some breathing room to woo independants without alienating the right. I don't care how many independants flock to Palin atm, that's not her job, her job is to HOLD THE BASE. She seems to be doing a decent job of that.

/Not as well worded as the first time I typed it though damnit :(

A very interesting and cogent thought. We'll see if he takes that tack in days to come, especially at and following the convention. If he really wants to shock the everloving shiat out of some people, during the course of one or more debates he can respond to Obama with, "Y'know what, Barack? You're absolutely right here. I'm behind that idea 100%." Possibly on the offshore drilling bit. You'd go deaf from all the heads exploding.

Occam's Chainsaw:
A very interesting and cogent thought. We'll see if he takes that tack in days to come, especially at and following the convention. If he really wants to shock the everloving shiat out of some people, during the course of one or more debates he can respond to Obama with, "Y'know what, Barack? You're absolutely right here. I'm behind that idea 100%." Possibly on the offshore drilling bit. You'd go deaf from all the heads exploding.

Wow, that was almost like Biden calling Obama "Clean and Articulate" ;)

I'll be the first to admit that McCain can prove me wrong; which is why before he chose Palin I was staying home. Alot depends on how he acts these next two months.

If he returns to McCain 2000, he might get my vote. Since that is unlikely, though, my vote is solidly for Obama.

/Independent.
//Not a "Fark Independent™"

The PUMAs are happy. They were going to vote McCain anyway because of their rabid hatred of Obama but now they get to pretend they have a legitimate reason to vote McCain.

They have a woman to vote for. The fact that her political views are the polar opposite of their beloved Hillary is irrelevant. They tossed Hillary under the Straight Talk Express bus when she gave her endorsement of Obama.

I originally said Palin was a good political pick for McCain.

I was wrong.

CanisNoir: It wasn't about independents and it wasn't about Hillary Voters, it was about Conservatives and it worked. $7 Million dollars raised in two days and voluteerism has skyrocketed.

So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

Your math is correct if you're using the same logic that if someone criticizes McCain, they are supporting Obama, and vice-versa.

So, no.

CanisNoir: MacEnvy: CanisNoir: So 31% are running to Obama, sounds like 69% are running towards McCain if my math is correct :P

It isn't. Maybe you should read the article and find out why.

Maybe you should fix your sarcasto-meter.

Jesus... Didn't the initial comments regarding "This isn't about independants" clue you into the fact that the 31% number is meaningless - therefore allowing me to be a smart-arse regarding the 69%?

Logic and Reading Comprehension.... (sigh)....

I'll give you a pass Occam :P

Sorry dude, it's early. My sarcastic meter no do function in earlytime. ;)

I'm voting third-party regardless, so this doesn't have any effect on me.

wow, i was expecting fail tag on this one

drevil877: Sorry dude, it's early. My sarcastic meter no do function in earlytime. ;)

No, your sarcasm meter is intact, he's just backpedaling. Remember, neocon shills are never wrong.

Palin better drop the "I'm picking up Hillary's mantle" PDQ. She trotting out the line again today - and was booed for it. Hopefully, that booing was more for Senator Clinton than for Palin, but that's not the crowd reaction you want to reinforce. McCain's selection of someone he describes as a fellow maverick to shore up his base, if that was in fact his intent, was the most farking retarded move of his campaign.

Huckabee would have shored up the base just fine - minus the abuse-of-power investigation, minus the Dan Quayle comparison, minus the indignation stirred up by seeming to pander to Vagina Americans. Schiat, my dyed-in-the-wool Dem husband might have voted (R) because he really liked Huckabee during the primary.

Oh well, McCain's stuck with the Hot Hockey Mom^TM for now. We'll see how quick a study she is on the campaign trail.

CanisNoir: People vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom

I think people should pay extra attention to McCain's running mate if you get my drift.

Occam's Chainsaw: Cubist Robot Party: The Palin pick wasn't about independents, it was about Hillary Clinton supporters.

And if they were actually operating under that premise when they went with Palin, then I'm going to suggest that they put down the crack pipe. HRC wants to be the first woman elected to the White House. Period.

Which makes an interesting conundrum. If she does her best for Obama and he's elected, she'll be 69 before she really has a chance to run again, and it's getting to the point where her age would have a bearing on the race. If Obama doesn't win and she runs in 2012, it takes some of the luster off her achievement even if McCain completes the first full term, and if McCain does not run again she might be in a race against Palin, which further erodes her special place in history.

McCain may take a strong 'fighting corruption in government' (even his own party) standpoint with his choice of Palin for the rest of the campaign, trying to distance himself away from the typical Republicanism. It's a fine line to walk when Bush and Cheney are scheduled to speak at the convention.

Palin will probably only sway the most vitriolic bitter Hillary supporters to vote for McCain (or make it easier for them to justify doing it), and I'd argue that they never really were for Clinton or her policies in the first place, so fark 'em.

Snarfangel:

Hillary wanted to be first. And, while no supporter of hers, I have to credit her with dedicating her whole life to getting there. Considering her past behavior, I'd say she'll do whatever it takes to keep Palin out of the White House for the very reason that if Hillary can't have it, no Bimbo can either.

I would have liked to have seen Palin vs Clinton. That would have been an interesting fight.

CanisNoir: I don't care how many independants flock to Palin atm, that's not her job, her job is to HOLD THE BASE.


Someone should tell her. She doesn't know what a VP does.

I'd say everybody's math is wrong.

the Phrase less likely in now way means they are running to the other side, it just means they didn't care for the pick.

Some of that 31% may have been 80% sure they were voting for McCain based on what they've heard so far, and now they are only 70% sure.

Polling results are 100% useless in determining the actual outcome of elections.

king_nacho: I'd say everybody's math is wrong.

the Phrase less likely in now way means they are running to the other side, it just means they didn't care for the pick.

Some of that 31% may have been 80% sure they were voting for McCain based on what they've heard so far, and now they are only 70% sure.

Polling results are 100% useless in determining the actual outcome of elections.

This.

Still, that won't stop us from green-lighting a new poll link every time someone sneezes.

I just don't understand why all you bed-wetters are going apeshiat over McCain picking Palin.

If she is so bad for the Republicans and so good for the Liberals, then wouldn't it suit you to say it was a good choice for VP, not a bad one?

geckoone: I just don't understand why all you bed-wetters are going apeshiat over McCain picking Palin.

If she is so bad for the Republicans and so good for the Liberals, then wouldn't it suit you to say it was a good choice for VP, not a bad one?

That IS what we're saying, essentially. It's a good pick for us. It's a bad pick for him.

geckoone: I just don't understand why all you bed-wetters are going apeshiat over McCain picking Palin.

If she is so bad for the Republicans and so good for the Liberals, then wouldn't it suit you to say it was a good choice for VP, not a bad one?

See, a lot of us actually care about the direction the country is going in. We have real issues to deal with, including energy, foreign relations, getting out of Iraq, healthcare policy / funding, improving education, Social Security, etc.

Palin is a gimmick, a joke. She is anti-choice, even in cases of rape and incest. She is a trojan horse for women's rights. She wants to open ANWAR to drilling (hmmm.. wonder why?). She is a creationist. She has little education (comparatively), no national experience, no international experience, and a shaky (at best) understanding of the job she's been nominated to do.

This isn't about rooting for your team. It's about where we are going as a nation. McCain is capable of running the country, but he is an old man, 4-time cancer survivor. I just don't think Palin is ready, in any sense of the word, to be one heartbeat (or liver metastasis) away from the presidency.

Now... give Palin a few terms in the governorship, and put her up for election for president. See how she does on the national campaign trail. If 18+ million vote to nominate her, I'll feel a bit better about her. For now, she's a babe in the woods.

/ Don't give me But But But Obama... the man has 12 years of legislative experience, was Magna Cum Laude at Harvard Law, served on Harvard Law review, practiced law privately, taught Constitutional Law at one of America's best schools, and most importantly was put through the ringer of 18 months of campaigning against the most powerful political dynasty the Democratic Party has seen in 30 years. There is no comparison between them, any that is made is egregiously disingenuous.

It's only going to get worse. more bad stuff is coming out every hour. she's going to have a hard time explaining her reckless judgment about her last baby's birth. the abuse of power as mayor that pretty much buttresses the one that's now under investigation.

geckoone: If she is so bad for the Republicans and so good for the Liberals, then wouldn't it suit you to say it was a good choice for VP, not a bad one?

Because some of us -- and not those who use it as an actual campaign slogan -- actually put Country First.

alywa: / Don't give me But But But Obama... the man has 12 years of legislative experience, was Magna Cum Laude at Harvard Law, served on Harvard Law review, practiced law privately, taught Constitutional Law at one of America's best schools, and most importantly was put through the ringer of 18 months of campaigning against the most powerful political dynasty the Democratic Party has seen in 30 years. There is no comparison between them, any that is made is egregiously disingenuous.

but what is all that compared to stuff like beauty queen,sportscaster,moose killer,baby factory?

So...is there a Vegas bet going on as to how long it would take this lady to withdraw her VP candidacy?

I'm close to laying favorable odds that Palin isn't the VP pick by the end of September.

oh and this should have the fail tag

FTFA:The headlines are about the broad polling reaction to Palin.

Wow...the sexism begins!

what does it say about McCain when his pick for VP was based soley on the cynical ploy to fracture democratic unity? What ever happened to picking a VP that was capable of leading our country if the need arose?

CanisNoir: By choosing Palin, McCain covers his arse with the conservative base and gives himself some breathing room to woo independants without alienating the right. I don't care how many independants flock to Palin atm, that's not her job, her job is to HOLD THE BASE. She seems to be doing a decent job of that.

You miss the point. To choose someone that makes your base happy and drives away the very people you say he needs to woo is absurd. Its a terrible, desperate choice.

Wait until the next round of polling comes out. Its going to get worse.

helioquake: So...is there a Vegas bet going on as to how long it would take this lady to withdraw her VP candidacy?

She's like Harriet Miers, except with more makeup.

I think McCain picked Palin because she is a jesus freak and he needs more support from the crazy wing.

Palin won't pick up any real Hillary supporters.

I'd say that her brother-in-law is toast if she gets elected.

TheKnownUniverse: helioquake: So...is there a Vegas bet going on as to how long it would take this lady to withdraw her VP candidacy?

She's like Harriet Miers, except with more makeup.

Exactly.

They didn't "vet" her. Amazing. McCain out-mavericked himself with this desperate, last-minute pick.

Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa and Colorado=sad Johnny Flapjacks.

Palin is a good idea like holding the RNC in Minnesota is a good idea. At one point it probably looked pretty good...on paper...to one guy.

Undecideds are pretty malleable and well, invincibly ignorant.

So far regurgitating what the MSM has told them to think. Yawn.

Meaningless until after the convention.

Echoic:

I originally said Palin was a good political pick for McCain.

I was wrong.

Same here. But then I also thought McCain was an honorable chap.

The wrong in me is strong.

I_Approve_Of_This_Message: I'm close to laying favorable odds that Palin isn't the VP pick by the end of September.


This!

NeverDrunk23: I would have liked to have seen Palin vs Clinton. That would have been an interesting fight.

You may see it. I can't imagine people with trong feelings about women's issues taking this sitting down.