i was wondering how long it would take for someone to submit a poll that was taken before the event. this poll is up to the 23rd.

put it back in your pants, subby.

when the polls are close does "Go Team !!" merchandise sell even better ?

Wow! Biden didn't give Obama a 10 point bump less than 24 hours after being named?

Well, that must validate McCain, somehow.


/hope you didn't pull a muscle with that reach.

"Does a bellicose Vietnam veteran who rushed to hitch his star to the self-immolating overreaches of Ahmad Chalabi, Pervez Musharraf and Mikheil Saakashvili have the judgment to keep America safe? ^{(^)}

Submitter,

Just stop it. Not all readers are as stupid as conservative voters, so just stop. You're wasting your time, dumbass.

Now that this has gone green, I like where this thread is going.

burndtdan

The reaction news is linked from that page, not on it: Biden does no harm, but may not help much. Dick Cheney and Dan Quayle were the only less influential VP candidates of recent decades.

This gets greenlit? Come on, Mods, the headline is an outright lie.

ZAZ: The reaction news is linked from that page, not on it: Biden does no harm, but may not help much. Dick Cheney and Dan Quayle were the only less influential VP candidates of recent decades.

Uh... if those 76% where already hardcore Obama/McCain followers, they don't given 2 shiats about the VP. So don't get ahead of yourself.

Submitter is going to really hate all eight years of the Obama-Biden administration.

DamnYankees This gets greenlit? Come on, Mods, the headline is an outright lie.


welcome to fark. and the follow up showing an increase, if any, will be insta-redded. the truth is too complicated to be interesting.

DamnYankees: This gets greenlit? Come on, Mods, the headline is an outright lie.

I think the admins are doing a little catch up for the overwhelming number of pro-Obama links that have gone green over the last couple of months. Just wait until a week before the election, it'll be all Obama, all the time.

Am I the only ones getting a little tired of the admins greenlighting articles that are not really related to the articles? I have a ton of good headlines in my mind that don't (yet!) have matching articles, but I'm not submitting random not-really-related pages just to get the headline out there.

BillCo: I think the admins are doing a little catch up for the overwhelming number of pro-Obama links that have gone green over the last couple of months.

Yes, of course that's what's happened.

Persecution Complexes are so cute...

You're new here aren't you?

_{Yeah, I looked.}

ZAZ: burndtdan

The reaction news is linked from that page, not on it: Biden does no harm, but may not help much. Dick Cheney and Dan Quayle were the only less influential VP candidates of recent decades.

when you're looking at a 3-day moving average for which the input ends the same day as an event, it CANNOT reflect the event properly. even if it weren't a 3-day moving average, it wouldn't, but since it is, that's not even close to relevant.

wait a few days to see what happens.

Skail: Am I the only ones getting a little tired of the admins greenlighting articles healines that are not really related to the articles? I have a ton of good headlines in my mind that don't (yet!) have matching articles, but I'm not submitting random not-really-related pages just to get the headline out there.

Fixes that for me. Such is my punishment for typing under the influence of Guitar Hero / Rock Band.

Blarg. "Headlines."

/*retiring to my corner for the duration*

They're tied if the media says they're tied.

Fark is the media Fark ridicules.

flavor of the month: DamnYankees This gets greenlit? Come on, Mods, the headline is an outright lie.


welcome to fark. and the follow up showing an increase, if any, will be insta-redded. the truth is too complicated to be interesting.

The "conservatives" around here need all the pity help they can get.

guys, relax. freaking over Fark headlines is like complaining that your beer tastes too beer-like
/subby

Is the Biden Bump anything like the Polsky Pump?

Or the Lewinsky Plump?

guys, relax. freaking over Fark headlines is like complaining that your beer tastes too beer-like

That "beer burger" I had last night tasted too beer-like.

... and Intrade has the probability of an Obama win vs. a McCain win at 61% to 37%. Event markets have demonstrated better predictive capability than polls - especially those that measure something that has nothing to do with the election (national popularity contest - um, remember 2000?) It seems pretty obvious that McCain is in for an epic slaughtering.

Nate Silver:
The principal rationale for selecting Hillary Clinton as Barack Obama's running mate is that she would have united Democrats behind their nominee at a time when they have a substantial advantage in party identification. John Kerry received 89 percent of the Democratic vote in 2004; if Barack Obama can get within a couple of points of that, even to 86 or 87 percent, he will be very difficult to defeat.

However, Joe Biden might do nearly as good a job as Clinton of uniting the party, while perhaps paying less of a price among independents.

Rasmussen has fresh approval numbers out for Biden, as well as several other Democratic short-listers. Here, borrowed from Rasmussen's invaluable subscriber service, are their approval scores by party:

Democrats
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Clinton 77-22 (+55)
Biden 65-17 (+48)
Bayh 45-25 (+20)
Sebelius 35-19 (+16)
Kaine 35-29 (+6)

Clinton has the highest favorables and highest net score among Democrats; Biden has the fewest unfavorables. Generally speaking, Clinton and Biden blow the other three candidates out of the water.

Republicans
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Kaine 29-30 (-1)
Bayh 23-43 (-20)
Sebelius 14-45 (-31)
Biden 22-63 (-39)
Clinton 21-75 (-54)

Amongst Republicans, the ratings are very nearly the reverse. Joe Biden will not have a terrific amount of crossover appeal. On the contrary, though the animus might not be as personal as in the case of Senator Clinton, Biden will be seen by many GOPers as a partisan blowhard. One can argue, however, about whether this really matters. The notion that Obama was going to win over some large number of "Obamacans" had not realistically been in play for a couple of months now, as the GOP base has begun to rally behind John McCain.

Indepedents
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Biden 42-29 (+13)
Bayh 31-21 (+10)
Kaine 24-23 (+1)
Sebelius 18-21 (-3)
Clinton 39-57 (-18)

Where Biden might do some good is among independents, among whom he has the highest favorables and highest net rating, although a couple other candidates had lower unfavorables. But Biden certainly performs better amongst this critical group than Hillary Clinton. One can argue that Biden is very well positioned within the Democratic party, probably just slightly to the right of the average Democratic senator. Liberal Democrats certainly won't be pleased with his votes on the AUMF or the bankruptcy bill, but they still essentially trust him, which they wouldn't necessarily with a more identifiably centrist choice like Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine. But on the other hand, Biden cannot so easily be characterized as a liberal to turn off independent voters; in fact, independents and moderates like him pretty well.

Let's take one more, slightly different take on this. This time, we'll look at impressions of the candidates based not on party ID, but rather, based on who the voters had intended to vote for in November. Let's make the following assumptions:

- For each McCain voter that has a very favorable view of Biden, one-quarter of them will switch their vote to Obama.
- For each McCain voter that has a somewhat favorable view of Biden, one-eighth of them will switch their vote to Obama.
- For each Obama voter that has a somewhat unfavorable view of Biden, one-eighth of them will switch their vote to McCain.
- For each Obama voter that has a very unfavorable view of Biden, one-quarter of them will switch their vote to McCain.

Does that sound reasonable? It sounds reasonable to me, though I really have no idea. But let's run the numbers and see what we get:

VF = Very Favorable
SF = Somewhat Favorable
VU = Very Unfavorable
SU = Somewhat Unfavorable

........... McCain Voters Obama Voters
Candidate - VF - SF -- VU - SU Net Margin
Biden.... - 4 - 20 -- 5 - 10 - +2.00
Bayh..... - 4 - 19 -- 4 - 16 - +0.75
Kaine.... - 8 - 21 -- 8 - 20 - +0.25
Clinton.. - 11 - 14 -- 13 - 14 - -0.50
Sebelius. - 3 - 13 -- 5 - 13 - -0.50

What's noteworthy is not so much that Biden will turn a lot of McCain voters on -- Tim Kaine and Hillary Clinton would have done a better job of that -- but that he'll turn very few Obama voters off. As a result, this method projects a net swing of 2 points toward Obama, which is better than he'd do with any of the other candidates. Biden also performed quite well in these ratings among undecided (43-22 favorable) and third-party (45-36 favorable) voters, though the sample sizes are probably too small to be worth worrying about.

Sorry for the wall of text. I thought I'd inject some decent information into a thread that probably doesn't want it.

wow..CNN just reported a poll that 51% of the people polled doesn't even know who Biden is. Now that's kinda sad and funny all rolled into a juicy tootsie roll.

In the Biden specific poll there's is some interesting information. It's now making sense to me as to why Obama chose to make this announcement at 3 AM on a Friday - they recognized that the around the clock coverage would probably hurt them in the short term.

Democrats' initial reaction to Biden is positive, but not extraordinarily so. Half of Democrats say they have a favorable view of Biden (with nearly half having no opinion), 64% think he is an excellent or pretty good choice for vice president, and 70% think he is qualified to be president. Perhaps most importantly, 21% say they are more likely to vote for Obama as a result of Biden's presence on the ticket, and only 2% say less likely. Is that enough to elevate Obama's numbers within the party? It's unclear, but it compares with a net 34% of Democrats more likely to vote for Kerry on the basis of Edwards' being selected in 2004, and a net 23% of Democrats more likely to vote for Gore because of Lieberman.

...

One approach to picking a vice president is to "do no harm." Perhaps with Quayle's and his father's unsuccessful 1992 re-election campaign in mind, George W. Bush was quoted in 2000 as saying, "You want ... somebody who's not going to hurt you."

Obama's own campaign manager recently echoed this sentiment, saying, "Whether someone helps win you an election, I think, is kind of a side benefit. You certainly want to pick someone who doesn't hurt you."

The initial evidence is that Biden won't hurt Obama in the election, but with only 14% of voters saying they are more likely to vote for the ticket with Biden on it, and 7% less likely, he is not positioned at this point to help Obama much either.

Well, this has convinced me...I'm voting McCain.

GaryPDX: wow..CNN just reported a poll that 51% of the people polled doesn't even know who Biden is. Now that's kinda sad and funny all rolled into a juicy tootsie roll.

and? it isn't hard to get someone's name and face out there.

GaryPDX: wow..CNN just reported a poll that 51% of the people polled doesn't even know who Biden is. Now that's kinda sad and funny all rolled into a juicy tootsie roll.

That's alarming news... people won't possibly vote for someone they don't know.

I just think it's odd. That seems like a lot considering Biden has been in Federal politics for 35 years.

GaryPDX: I just think it's odd. That seems like a lot considering Biden has been in Federal politics for 35 years.

no it's not odd.

GaryPDX: I just think it's odd. That seems like a lot considering Biden has been in Federal politics for 35 years.

Name the oldest person in the Senate without looking.

DamnYankees: GaryPDX: I just think it's odd. That seems like a lot considering Biden has been in Federal politics for 35 years.

Name the oldest person in the Senate without looking.

And if that's too easy for you, name the 4 longest serving Senators without looking.

Okay..whatever..hahaha. The number just struck me as odd.

I just think it's odd. That seems like a lot considering Biden has been in Federal politics for 35 years.

If not for the 1988 campaign and the plagiarism story, he might be a name that I'd heard but couldn't tell you about.

Even Stevens (is he the oldest Senator?) is mostly "corrupt intertubes to nowhere" to me. There are 100 of them most of the time and I don't pay enough attention to know all their quirks.

DamnYankees: GaryPDX: I just think it's odd. That seems like a lot considering Biden has been in Federal politics for 35 years.

Name the oldest person in the Senate without looking.

i lost track after strom thurmond kicked it.

DamnYankees: Name the oldest person in the Senate without looking.

Bob Byrd.

DamnYankees: And if that's too easy for you, name the 4 longest serving Senators without looking.

Bob Byrd, Ted Stevens, Ted Kennedy and Danny Inouye.

Do I get a cookie?

Intrade has the probability of an Obama win vs. a McCain win at 61% to 37%. ... It seems pretty obvious that McCain is in for an epic slaughtering.

2-1 odds predict it won't be epic slaughter. Nixon-McGovern and Reagan-Mondale were epic. Barring some juicy scandal or catastrophic incident this year is going to be a fight.

GaryPDX: wow..CNN just reported a poll that 51% of the people polled doesn't even know who Biden is. Now that's kinda sad and funny all rolled into a juicy tootsie roll.

You watch CNN? Judging from your rambling musings you seem to get your info from Fox. Interesting...

I'm very afraid that Obama just doesn't have it, that McCain is going to win. Obama is not being anything, he's reading from the same playbook that Kerry used. If Obama is going to run as a Democrat/liberal, he should start acting like one and not a mushy say-anything politician.

Surprising that for people who don't believe in evolution, some radical right wingers insist on thinking like lower life forms.

Befuddled: I'm very afraid that Obama just doesn't have it

oh the CONCERN! I can taste it.

the Biden/Obama ticket is a sure loser.

People simply realize that Obama's inexperience and the threat of attack should we sway from current policy is enough not to vote for him. I tried to warn you liberals: this is not the time to enact "feel-good" policy. This country is still at war, and it's about to escalate with the events in Iran and Pakistan.

bartink: GaryPDX: wow..CNN just reported a poll that 51% of the people polled doesn't even know who Biden is. Now that's kinda sad and funny all rolled into a juicy tootsie roll.

You watch CNN? Judging from your rambling musings you seem to get your info from Fox. Interesting...

Never watch Fox. I usually watch MSNBC but the freaking Olympics have been in the way.