Pretty good article.

Pretty good article.

The biggest thing holding China back is the same thing that is allowing it to grow like it has: Its massive population. In the USA, we have a food surplus to go along with a relatively stable population. In China, they have 700 million farmers, but not enough of a surplus to be able to withstand their rapidly aging demographic.

The Middle East might have oil, and China might have cheap labor, but we hold the trump card: food.

Pretty good article.

I remember when Japan was going to buy and/or bury the United States.

It's good that someone finally summed these issues up in verbiage that isn't so damned breathless and sensational.

To hell with it, let's not pay them back all of that money we've borrowed, either.

Also, I think widespread prosperity would price China out of its niche(tl,dr the whole thing, that may have been touched upon). It will be interesting to see how they deal with their massive elderly population. Soylent Chow Mein? Egg Foo old?

Food and the environment will hold them back big time. Read somewhere recently that China consumes twice what is sustainable by the environment within their borders.

Uakronkid: The biggest thing holding China back is the same thing that is allowing it to grow like it has: Its massive population. In the USA, we have a food surplus to go along with a relatively stable population. In China, they have 700 million farmers, but not enough of a surplus to be able to withstand their rapidly aging demographic.

The Middle East might have oil, and China might have cheap labor, but we hold the trump card: food.

We also share the largest repository of fresh water in the world with our BFF to the north.

The Dakotas could basically feed the entire country if we're just looking for calories. The Great Plains states produce enough grain to feed everyone on Earth 1500 calories a day.

Plus, according to TFA, we have the best comedic animators in the world. And until China can make funny cartoons, America will remain the sole superpower.

For four big reasons -- dire demographics, an overrated economy, an environment under siege and an ideology that doesn't travel well

I'm assuming those include massive water problems, a billion still in poverty and wanting to move to the cities, a coming banking crisis, and an relentlessly authoritarian political system rife with cronyism and corruption.

China got were it is because it is so massive and willing to be the cheap factory for the world. Those things will hold it back, rather than advance it. China certainly shouldn't be underestimated, but neither should they be played as the coming bogyeman

Jubeebee: Plus, according to TFA, we have the best comedic animators in the world. And until China can make funny cartoons, America will remain the sole superpower.

EXACTLY.

I don't see the Chinese leviathan as replacing the United States as the center of the world: there are simply too many up and coming powers who would challenge such an uncontested rise (particularly India) in addition to the United States itself. Now, whether America can maintain her position of unassailable preeminence is an entirely different matter: I'd wager not.

Jubeebee: Plus, according to TFA, we have the best comedic animators in the world. And until China can make funny cartoons, America will remain the sole superpower.

Our culture is our biggest export and our most potent weapon.

China is speeding toward an implosion of biblical proportions. The fact that they're growing old is part of the problem, but another part of the problem is the lack of parity between men and women; the difference between the amount of men and the amount of women (below the age of 64) is over 40 million. That's a population greater than that of Canada of men who won't be able to find a wife in China.

The article can talk about the ageing population, the environmental problems, the economy going at a rate that's impossible to keep up and an authoritative and repressive ideology, but what it doesn't mention is that China has the makings of a massively destructive underclass of men who have very little to live for; they aren't "good" enough to attract one of the women, so what are they going to do?

Aexia: Jubeebee: Plus, according to TFA, we have the best comedic animators in the world. And until China can make funny cartoons, America will remain the sole superpower.

Our culture is our biggest export and our most potent weapon.

Exactly. Wait 'till they get Hip Hop...

Remember how conservatives were hyping China as a huge threat prior to 911? Now they have The War Against Terror as the new multi-generational crusade.

albo: For four big reasons -- dire demographics, an overrated economy, an environment under siege and an ideology that doesn't travel well

I'm assuming those include massive water problems, a billion still in poverty and wanting to move to the cities, a coming banking crisis, and an relentlessly authoritarian political system rife with cronyism and corruption.

China got were it is because it is so massive and willing to be the cheap factory for the world. Those things will hold it back, rather than advance it. China certainly shouldn't be underestimated, but neither should they be played as the coming bogyeman

While I agree, I think the Chinese will adjust as they need to now that they have a taste of money.

NOTHING brings democratic and Capitalistic changes like porn and an XBox. Yet another reason Bush is a fukking retard.

Aexia: Jubeebee: Plus, according to TFA, we have the best comedic animators in the world. And until China can make funny cartoons, America will remain the sole superpower.

Our culture is our biggest export and our most potent weapon.

That's my thinking also. For some reason, other countries seek to be like America. Not to mention, the amount of money that the Chinese have to put into their military will always hold them back.

albo:
I'm assuming those include massive water problems, a billion still in poverty and wanting to move to the cities, a coming banking crisis, and an relentlessly authoritarian political system rife with cronyism and corruption.


That all equals REVOLUTION!!!!

albo:
China got were it is because it is so massive and willing to be the cheap factory for the world. Those things will hold it back, rather than advance it. China certainly shouldn't be underestimated, but neither should they be played as the coming bogyeman

Look, I'm no fan of China, but its a question of their methods, not their resources. Used properly, I think the population and willingness to industrialize will be able to advance it. Never underestimate the willingness and ingenuity of humans to take what they've got and use it to make their lives better. They went through a paradigm shift to get where they are, they're capable of doing it again. It's not like they're civil warring/genociding all over the place like the countries that are really screwed, there's genuine interest in improvement there.

ZAZ: Pretty good article.

I remember when Japan was going to buy and/or bury the United States.


Ive been pointing that out for the past few years every time some American hating farker talked about how China will eventually own us.

I have to say that that is a very well written article. While it doesn't go into every problem, it is concise and to the point.

There's nothing I trust more for unbiased, informative commentary than the wapo opinion section.

HempHead: albo:
I'm assuming those include massive water problems, a billion still in poverty and wanting to move to the cities, a coming banking crisis, and an relentlessly authoritarian political system rife with cronyism and corruption.


That all equals REVOLUTION!!!!

Ron Ping!

Techhell: the lack of parity between men and women; the difference between the amount of men and the amount of women (below the age of 64) is over 40 million. That's a population greater than that of Canada of men who won't be able to find a wife in China.


Polygamy. Actually, not a bad idea for guy. Get some other guy to deal with her shiat half the time.

Digitalstrange: ZAZ: Pretty good article.

I remember when Japan was going to buy and/or bury the United States.


Ive been pointing that out for the past few years every time some American hating farker talked about how China will eventually own us.

Well, since between the two of them, they hold over $1 trillion of our debt (and no sign that things are going to get better any time soon), I'd say they are well on their way.

Jubeebee:

Plus, according to TFA, we have the best comedic animators in the world. And until China can make funny cartoons, America will remain the sole superpower.

Agreed:

Is china slowly assimilating Sub-Saharan Africa or is that a rumor. They do seem to have the upper hand with the Panama Canal.

Authoritarian Capitalism or something like that.

The same can be said for the oft-repeated Chinese threat to U.S. military supremacy.

The U.S. allocates $450+ billion to its military per year. China claims an annual military budget in the neighborhood of $35 billion (although experts suggest it's likely double that figure). Moreover, the Chinese are starting from a very low baseline as most of their equipment is generations behind.

robbiedo: Polygamy. Actually, not a bad idea for guy. Get some other guy to deal with her shiat half the time.

While a man can make several women pregnant simultaneously, a woman can have only one pregnancy at a time. That is the inherent issue.

D_Moran: The U.S. allocates $450+ billion to its military per year. China claims an annual military budget in the neighborhood of $35 billion (although experts suggest it's likely double that figure). Moreover, the Chinese are starting from a very low baseline as most of their equipment is generations behind.

Yea, but they just have to arm the first wave, the rest can just pick up what they need from the first wave.

Don't let the "you'd better learn to speak Chinese" crowd hear about this. Those Rosetta Stone disks ain't cheap.

Here's my problem. Can you name one recent invention by the People's Republic of China? Or even the Republic of China before it split off into Taiwan?

Sure, the song says






but really, what have they done recently? And how can you be a superpower when your power comes from making things that other people design, and not inventing anything yourself?

andrewagill: robbiedo: Polygamy. Actually, not a bad idea for guy. Get some other guy to deal with her shiat half the time.

While a man can make several women pregnant simultaneously, a woman can have only one pregnancy at a time. That is the inherent issue.

Sorry, just read the "Moon is a Harsh Mistress" and it seemed to work okay for them.

andrewagill: Here's my problem. Can you name one recent invention by the People's Republic of China? Or even the Republic of China before it split off into Taiwan?
...
but really, what have they done recently? And how can you be a superpower when your power comes from making things that other people design, and not inventing anything yourself?

They said the same about Japan 25 years ago. But now they're the ones inventing the stuff that we buy.

67 Beetle: They said the same about Japan 25 years ago. But now they're the ones inventing the stuff that we buy.

No, Japan had developed the Mitsubishi Zero engine, the Nikon shutter, and had shown quite a bit of ingenuity in the early 20th century. China hasn't shown any in quite some time.

I think the demographic time bomb is probably their biggest problem right now. The last number I saw was 40 million men with zero prospects for marriage. India is facing a similar problem. Unrest is already growing in the countryside and if they don't find some way to channel it (hello Taiwan), things could get ugly fast.

Mentat: I think the demographic time bomb is probably their biggest problem right now. The last number I saw was 40 million men with zero prospects for marriage. India is facing a similar problem. Unrest is already growing in the countryside and if they don't find some way to channel it (hello Taiwan), things could get ugly fast.

I'm thinking more along the lines of Siberia with few people and lots and lots of natural resources.

I think they'll pressure Taiwan to join willingly

China has a ton of problems. A large aging population. Lack of food and water and other resources and likely will be a lack of jobs in the near future. As well as many varied ethnic issues and unrest in general. These will slow if not stop its rise to the top. My bet at the next superpower is United Europe. While it has its own problems I feel its far more likely to solve them sooner than China.

Techhell: China is speeding toward an implosion of biblical proportions. The fact that they're growing old is part of the problem, but another part of the problem is the lack of parity between men and women; the difference between the amount of men and the amount of women (below the age of 64) is over 40 million. That's a population greater than that of Canada of men who won't be able to find a wife in China.

The article can talk about the ageing population, the environmental problems, the economy going at a rate that's impossible to keep up and an authoritative and repressive ideology, but what it doesn't mention is that China has the makings of a massively destructive underclass of men who have very little to live for; they aren't "good" enough to attract one of the women, so what are they going to do?

this!
one consequence of the one child policy has been that the chinese tend to abort daughters. that's already left many young men unable to find mates. it's going to get much much worse.
the social unrest is going to be terrible when their population eventually crashes.

andrewagill: 67 Beetle: They said the same about Japan 25 years ago. But now they're the ones inventing the stuff that we buy.

No, Japan had developed the Mitsubishi Zero engine, the Nikon shutter, and had shown quite a bit of ingenuity in the early 20th century. China hasn't shown any in quite some time.

China just started opening up a couple of decades ago and they're pretty much caught up to the rest of the developed world already. With the amount of R&D they are throwing around around every year, in another couple of decades they will be right at the top, if not at the top when it comes to innovation.

67 Beetle: China just started opening up a couple of decades ago and they're pretty much caught up to the rest of the developed world already. With the amount of R&D they are throwing around around every year, in another couple of decades they will be right at the top, if not at the top when it comes to innovation.

I keep hearing people say that, but I don't see any reason to believe it's true. I know they're throwing money at R&D, but you can't just solve problems with money.

67 Beetle: andrewagill: Here's my problem. Can you name one recent invention by the People's Republic of China? Or even the Republic of China before it split off into Taiwan?
...
but really, what have they done recently? And how can you be a superpower when your power comes from making things that other people design, and not inventing anything yourself?

They said the same about Japan 25 years ago. But now they're the ones inventing the stuff that we buy.

They made a crazy rise, but the US provided the blueprint for it.

Nobody in Japan had even seen a railroad or steam engine before an American ship came to exhibit one. Less than a hundred years later, they were building the fastest and best trains on Earth.

That aside, though, the US is ahead in a lot of areas. Where's the Chinese (or Japanese or French, for that matter) computer software to complete with what Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, et all is putting out? That industry is still American. Speaking of Microsoft, they're gradually but surely pulling the video games industry back into the US, which is great. We're not in bad shape by any stretch of the imagination, in other words.

FYI: Pretty much every other industrialized nation on Earth, including the USA, will also face a vastly aging population. Granted, it won't be as crazy China is facing, but still...

/had to say that
//will probably learn Mandarin anyway.

andrewagill: 67 Beetle: China just started opening up a couple of decades ago and they're pretty much caught up to the rest of the developed world already. With the amount of R&D they are throwing around around every year, in another couple of decades they will be right at the top, if not at the top when it comes to innovation.

I keep hearing people say that, but I don't see any reason to believe it's true. I know they're throwing money at R&D, but you can't just solve problems with money.

Reasearchers follow the research dollars. And we graduate a lot of Chinese PhDs every year. As more money goes to China, more of those PhDs are going to go back home chasing it. We are going to start seeing a huge brain drain of talent going back home to India and China over the next couple of decades.

China's got problems with demographics, but so do the Europeans and the U.S. for that matter. Yes, China has a problem feeding themselves, but they'll be able to sell tons of computer and telecommunications equipment to buy whatever food they need.

There's nothing in China's culture to suggest that they are less intelligent or inventive than anyone else. As their country opens up more and more and more money flows in, they will grab a bigger and bigger share of the innovation pie.

BlakeyRat: ...That aside, though, the US is ahead in a lot of areas. Where's the Chinese (or Japanese or French, for that matter) computer software to complete with what Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, et all is putting out? That industry is still American. Speaking of Microsoft, they're gradually but surely pulling the video games industry back into the US, which is great. We're not in bad shape by any stretch of the imagination, in other words.


Someone who works for Microsoft or Apple or Adobe can pipe up, but from what I've heard from some friends on the inside as well as what I've seen over the last 5-6 years is that more and more code writing tasks are getting shipped overseas. And if that's not happening then the EU is filing lawsuits against Microsoft and forcing them to reveal more and more of their code.

At first we could say that we made computers. Then we could say that at least we designed them. Then we could say that at least we wrote the code. Even that is slowly becoming less and less true.

I have to agree with what's been said already about the one child policy. That's why the earthquakes were so devastating--families put the whole legacy onto one boy, who is treated like a prince because he's the only child.

Imagine that child grows up and realizes that in spite of the success he's had as a result of being incubated in incredible competitiveness, and not being able to carry your legacy on because of something outside your control. I can see the potential for a number of people to flip out at some point.

blick: one consequence of the one child policy has been that the chinese tend to abort daughters.

Abort if they were rich and lucky. For most the birth was a surprise...

CayceP 2008-07-27 11:18:11 PM
Imagine that child grows up and realizes that in spite of the success he's had as a result of being incubated in incredible competitiveness, and not being able to carry your legacy on because of something outside your control. I can see the potential for a number of people to flip out at some point.

Or, more viscerally...how are all those boys going to get laid, much less find a long term, Chinese wife? Hmm, we have a problem!

But yeah, the Japanese are incredible innovators (sometimes what they build makes sense, see Toyotas and Hondas smoking Chevys and Fords on a regular basis. Sometimes it doesn't...see lolicon, tentacoo wape, and all the other things that make us say 'what the hell is wrong with Japan?'. But you gotta admit, they're inventive!) meanwhile the Chinese are incredible duplicators (made in China...EVERYTHING nowdays.) who are also hidebound by 'tradition'. (I know many fullblooded Chinese, and I swear they have a 'tradition' for 'luck' for just about every possible thing you could do!)

Bucky Katt: Remember how conservatives

How do you turn that article into an excuse to bash conservatives? You need a hobby.

67 Beetle: they'll be able to sell tons of computer and telecommunications equipment to buy whatever food they need

RTFA. They aren't selling it, they're just getting paid to make it. At a cut rate. Most of the companies that own (and therefore sell) the products are foreign.