They opnly make it sound like it's a close race to encourage suckers to bet on the sure loser. Like all those suckers who bet on Nadal at Wimbledon, or the New York Giants in the Superbowl.

ndotseth: The myth of a toss-up election - three academics die-hard Liberals officially call bullshiat on the media's unending portrayal of Obama-McCain as a horserace when it has been no such thing

Which completely disproves everything presented in the article...how?



Pick up your trash next time.

robsul82: ndotseth: The myth of a toss-up election - three academics die-hard Liberals officially call bullshiat on the media's unending portrayal of Obama-McCain as a horserace when it has been no such thing

Which completely disproves everything presented in the article...how?



Pick up your trash next time.

To be fair to ndotseth, one of the authors is a Joo.

submitter: media's unending portrayal of Obama-McCain as a horserace when it has been no such thing

B-b-but then how will we fill a 24-hour news cycle. Anna Nicole is still dead.

ndotseth: three academics die-hard Liberals

There was no need to change it. Everyone knows that academics is a synonym for die-hard liberals. If they were conservatives, they wouldn't be high falluting varsity perfessors.

I'm still surprised the polls are as close as they are. As TFA says, the Republican party is very unpopular right now. We have an unpopular war, a very disliked President, and a weak economy. The economy alone was enough to sink Bush Sr., though granted he was running against the very charismatic Bill Clinton. But Obama shares that charisma and has the other factors above going for him. By this time I expected the polls to be further apart.

The media is awfully good at ignoring McCain's farkups though. They want a horse race. If they cover it like they covered the Democratic party primary, they will try to ensure a horse race all the way to the end. It's better for ratings. So as we saw even when Hillary had no chance unless Obama was caught on film eating a baby while having a gay orgy, the media persisted in saying it wasn't over.

Flab: Everyone knows that academics is a synonym for die-hard liberals. If they were conservatives, they wouldn't be high falluting varsity perfessors.

True. Intelligent people slant to the left.

I'm gonna need some help here...
If media reports this opinion as "truth", game over. Ya got 3.5 months of spouting the spoiler and I would expect the American sheep to just go right along and elect whoever.
If media keeps this as a "tight race", we continue to keep our newsfeeds full of the SOS. Voter interest is piqued and the appearance of democracy is preserved. Yay.
Telling the "truth" is the right thing, but would be bad for altering and limiting people's choices.
Telling the "lie" is a bad thing, but would make everyone feel better and keep the paychecks flowing.
Eventually the "truth" will out, or we could,,,rewrite a few things and not look so stupid.

And the American media chooses to...

snocone: Telling the "truth" is the right thing, but would be bad for altering and limiting people's choices.

Huh? No it wouldn't. It would allow the American electorate to make a better-informed decision.

ndotseth; by any chance do you have a twin sister (among other siblings)? I think I know you, since there aren't that many Dotseths out there, and even less in the Chicago area.

Well their analysis is the first thing I have seen that is in line with my observations of this election cycle. Seeing McCain make a speech gives me the kind of feeling I get while watching an awkward scene from a romantic comedy, I feel embarrassed by proxy. He'll win votes, but nobody that wouldn't have voted for any other conservative the Republicans could have rolled out. He'll get the die-hard conservatives, some elderly voters, and all the folks who can't stand the thought of a half-black president. Obama's youth, speeches, and charisma are making this even worse for McCain, since it is his lack of these qualities that is hurting him most. The last thing a centerist voter wants right now is more of the same, and McCain represents a kind of Washington DC political fossil that won't motivate anyone. Obama can lose the election, and that is the only way McCain can win it.

At least the media is willing to pretend so they don't look super biased.

It's been obvious for some time now that Obama will win handily barring some miracle. Which is fine by me. The farther ahead Obama is, the easier it will be for disgruntled conservatives to cast a vote for Barr.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

This is a bit of a reach, but watching and listening to McCain shows, IMHO, a guy who knows he has no chance.
Must kill them to spend that kinda dough for a futile exercise.

Right, wrong, indifferent, we are living in fascinating times. IF Obama continues to spellbind people as he has shown the ability to do and turn this into a Movement, it will change the world. He plays well on the world stage and it seems the world is ready and willing to clutch the straw.

patrick767:

True. Intelligent people slant to the left seek higher paying more satisfying careers.

If they showed a huge split for Obama then it might inspire enough closet racists to vote McCain to keep Obama out of the White House.

Bladel: submitter: media's unending portrayal of Obama-McCain as a horserace when it has been no such thing

B-b-but then how will we fill a 24-hour news cycle. Anna Nicole is still dead.

Da Winna!!

_{/I am so wanting to biatchslap one of those fancy hairdo bimbettes on TV}

They did the same thing with the Democratic primary. It was obvious after Super Tuesday that Hillary was in trouble and then Obama won 12 states in a row, yet they still kept pulling numbers out of their ass to justify saying that Hillary could still win it. And the primary was much closer than this general election will be. I'm predicting a landslide for Obama.

Electoral Vote Map (new window)

Even if McCain wins VA and FL, he still loses by around 50 electoral votes.

The media has a collective orgasm over national polls when it is clear individual state contests are what people should be paying attention. Hell a 6 point national lead is around 270-300 electoral votes.

Pollster (new window)

538 (new window)

patrick767: I'm still surprised the polls are as close as they are. As TFA says, the Republican party is very unpopular right now. We have an unpopular war, a very disliked President, and a weak economy. The economy alone was enough to sink Bush Sr., though granted he was running against the very charismatic Bill Clinton. But Obama shares that charisma and has the other factors above going for him. By this time I expected the polls to be further apart.

The media is awfully good at ignoring McCain's farkups though. They want a horse race. If they cover it like they covered the Democratic party primary, they will try to ensure a horse race all the way to the end. It's better for ratings. So as we saw even when Hillary had no chance unless Obama was caught on film eating a baby while having a gay orgy, the media persisted in saying it wasn't over.

Being from Indiana I thought you might recognize how many people will vote for a Republican president NO MATTER WHAT. Obama is still going to be considered a socialist because he support social programs for the poor. He still will be pro-choice and many Midwesterners will still sign up to go to war.

McCain is going to have an undisclosed health issue before the convention and Mitt Romney or some other random Governor will step in and accept the nomination.

Donald_McRonald: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Well, to be fair, they've certainly thrown the bullshiat flag as well on the media's "DOWN TO THE WIRE!!!!!11" nonsense. I mean, how could they not, THEY deal with numbers, probability, and the electoral map...the same electoral map on which this article focuses, and the enormity of the current gap only makes the media's howls more ridiculous every time you look at it.

When it comes to the national numbers, the horribly biased pro-Obama media does the same thing. I mentioned in another thread nearly losing it when Matthews on MSNBC was crowing how "every poll has it in the margin of error," "toss-up," etc., when on the MSNBC news ticker directly beneath his head was the latest NBC/WSJ poll saying Obama led by 6. Gallup has Obama's lead at 48-41, with it growing every day for the past three days. Ramussen has Obama up 6, likewise with a growing lead for days on end. Wouldn't know it from the media.

/nor would you know of Obama's 13-point lead in the NBC/WSJ poll with all four major contenders included in the polling question, I don't even think Olbermann's brought that up

Cyborg77: They did the same thing with the Democratic primary. It was obvious after Super Tuesday that Hillary was in trouble and then Obama won 12 states in a row, yet they still kept pulling numbers out of their ass to justify saying that Hillary could still win it.

That's because the MSM is in the tank for Obama.

/wait... what?

Philip J. Fry: McCain is going to have an undisclosed health issue before the convention and Mitt Romney or some other random Governor will step in and accept the nomination.

... and?

heh the devil himself has Obama in the lead (new window)

satanorsanta:
Being from Indiana I thought you might recognize how many people will vote for a Republican president NO MATTER WHAT. Obama is still going to be considered a socialist because he support social programs for the poor. He still will be pro-choice and many Midwesterners will still sign up to go to war.



From Ohio and this is true. What you are missing however, is outside of these idiots, McCain has no votes. The Democrats will of course vote Obama, and people in the middle WILL NOT VOTE for McCain. Everybody but hard righties, and there are a lot of them, are done with any Republican for a while. They fukked up everything.

It has been clear for some time this election is Obama's to lose.

Philip J. Fry: McCain is going to have an undisclosed health issue before the convention and Mitt Romney or some other random Governor will step in and accept the nomination.

I think so too, and everybody calls me an idiot. McCain is losing his mind and is a terrible candidate. His age gives them an out.

Ace Frehley's Ghost: That's because the MSM is in the tank for Obama.

The Dem base seems pretty energized by Obama. The Rep base seems pretty lackluster. But by reporting it as close, the Rep base isn't as worried about a secret Muslim taking office. If they reported that it was going to be a landslide, it might actually help McCain by getting the Republicans to vote out of fear of the libz!!!11!

Maybe.

Maybe?

Meh... whatever, it's all crap anyway.

Well, to be fair, Karl Rove hasn't been unleashed as yet with his cauldron of fear and smear.

That will definitely tighten things up in a month or two.

bolzy: Philip J. Fry: McCain is going to have an undisclosed health issue before the convention and Mitt Romney or some other random Governor will step in and accept the nomination.

... and?

My whole family thinks this, it's a running joke now every time I call my mother on the phone

Heres the response to it posted on the same website:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=JEC2008072401

God's will trumps Man's law.

There's always a shift in the political make up of the government.

You don't like Conservative presidents? Get over it. There will be more of them.

You don't like Liberal presidents? Get over it. There will be more of them.

Ack, Stevens looks to have fallen, and he can't get up!

Quick man! Grab onto some internet tubes!

inconnu: Heres the response to it posted on the same website:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=JEC2008072401

That response -

"1. Bush's shiatty approval ratings may not matter much."

That's great, the linked article is largely about the electoral map.

"2. McCain looks more electable than Obama."

One person's opinion, doesn't in any way disprove anything presented in original article.

"3. 2008's likely to be close because other open-seat elections were."

Again, disproves nothing in the original article.

That was some weak sauce. Like, mild as shiat.

PascalsGhost: Philip J. Fry: McCain is going to have an undisclosed health issue before the convention and Mitt Romney or some other random Governor will step in and accept the nomination.

I think so too, and everybody calls me an idiot. McCain is losing his mind and is a terrible candidate. His age gives them an out.

I don't see what they'd gain from it. If anything, having that kind of chaos at the convention would drive away even more swing voters who won't vote for a party in disarray. And in addition to throwing McCain to the wolves, they'll have sunk a potential future candidate.

Ace Frehley's Ghost: That's because the MSM is in the tank for Obama.

lol. riiiight. that's why they've ignored every single mccain gaffe, flip flop and bald-faced lie (the surge worked!!!).

patrick767: Flab: Everyone knows that academics is a synonym for die-hard liberals. If they were conservatives, they wouldn't be high falluting varsity perfessors.

True. Intelligent people slant to the left.

Career academics aren't particularly smarter than their industry counterparts -- in fact, they're used to not actually needing to produce any kind of finished product, just a preliminary idea, so if you want advice on how to actually get something done, go to private enterprise.

I say this with all love, as I'm a professional researcher at a public university. (Don't fire me!)

It's all gonna come down to Kevin Costner for some reason.

Given the current conditions, it would be almost impossible for Obama to have an overwhelming lead at this point. Economy tanking, unpopular war, non-incumbant on ballot, the democratic candidate should be in the lead even if they nominated Osama Bin Ladin. However, these polls are still very early. We still have the conventions, the debates, and time for issues to crop up that could change views on the candidates.

Having McCain step aside for "health" reasons is an interesting theory. However, which deeply flawed candidate would take his place. Romney, the mormon who would alienate bible belt voters. Huckabee is a religious nut whos policies are more in line with Obama than Republican voters. Giuliani ran such an inspiring campaign that he couldn't even win the state he spent all his time in. Thompson is disinterested in the job which is why his campaign tanked. Ron Paul, well, he wouldn't get it because he is Ron Paul, but he has to be mentioned to satisfy the Ron Paul supporters.

None of these candidates would be doing any better against Obama. McCain was picked not so much because he was the best candidate, but because he was the best of the worst who wanted the job. Therefore, the Republican party will stick with him and run a standard campaign hoping for an Obama mistake that could tighten things up. It probably won't happen but who knows what can happen tomorrow with politics.

Gangway Fathead: It's all gonna come down to Kevin Costner Bacon for some reason. It's all about the bacon.

Why is it that when I ask my liberal friends "change what?" each and every one of them stutters out some anti Bush crap. Well guess what, Bush isn't running. I live in an extremely liberal town and after the last time the peace loving liberals smashed my windows and keyed my car because of the conservative sign in the yard I am laying low.

janice: conservative sign

What, exactly, did this "conservative sign" say?

Jacobin: Well, to be fair, Karl Rove hasn't been unleashed as yet with his cauldron of fear and smear.

That will definitely tighten things up in a month or two.

And what more could he possibly do? Call him socialist, marxist, communist, empty suit, inexperienced, mooslim, atheist, traitor, panderer, flip-flopper, that he has an evil wife and an evil preacher, elitist, unpatriotic, America hater, appeaser, that he has terrorist friends, his birth certificate is fake, racist, typical crooked Chicago Daley politician, Hamas-approved, wounded soldier hater?

What more is the wizard genius Rove going to come up with?

I still say the smart money is on pigfarker.

PopeSkeletor: PascalsGhost: Philip J. Fry: McCain is going to have an undisclosed health issue before the convention and Mitt Romney or some other random Governor will step in and accept the nomination.

I think so too, and everybody calls me an idiot. McCain is losing his mind and is a terrible candidate. His age gives them an out.

I don't see what they'd gain from it. If anything, having that kind of chaos at the convention would drive away even more swing voters who won't vote for a party in disarray. And in addition to throwing McCain to the wolves, they'll have sunk a potential future candidate.

There will be no chaos. They can make and easy switch cause McCain will step down due to health reasons. Watch and see.

Uh from my post above, I left out a key word in that first line that fixes it from its present nonsense. It should have said:

It would be almost impossible for Obama NOT to have an overwhelming lead at this point.

Tabatha Static: God's will trumps Man's law.



Thank you Mr. Bush, for keeping us safe from the 9/11 and the terror.