Ah, the only way the media will cover how the candidates are doing in the Electoral College - which to say, not at all, just this harebrained what-if.

I'm sure they'll keep trying to portray it like they did with Hillary Clinton - pretending she was still winning until they were forced to say she wasn't (ahem, CNN) and claiming she still had a chance, even if that chance was smaller than the chance that the next Ice Age is tomorrow.

Looks like ABC News got their new interns in.

You have to get to the last page to find this:

There is a 0.48 percent chance of an electoral tie

Um, yeah, I thought it was Fark that was the "not news" site...

TFA: Under the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, if one candidate does not get 270 votes, the decision gets kicked to the House of Representatives, where each state gets a vote -- a formula that would likely guarantee an Obama victory.

How so? Would one expect the Republicans to have more states, albiet smaller ones? Or, I guess the tiny Northeastern states would be the clincher?


timujin: You have to get to the last page to find this: There is a 0.48 percent chance of an electoral tie

That's just a random coin toss. The reality is its guarunteed to be close to a tie. But the chances beyond that of an actual tie are small. But they aren't 0.48%.

downstairs: How so? Would one expect the Republicans to have more states, albiet smaller ones? Or, I guess the tiny Northeastern states would be the clincher?
FTFA:
Currently, the Democrats hold a 26-21 lead among state delegations in the House, with three states split down the middle: Arizona, Kansas and Mississippi.

That's just a random coin toss. The reality is its guarunteed to be close to a tie. But the chances beyond that of an actual tie are small. But they aren't 0.48%.

Then you should talk to this guy:
There is a 0.48 percent chance of an electoral tie, according to Nate Silver, who runs the www.fivethirtyeight.com (pops) Web site that has run the numbers on various election-night scenarios.

He's also the guy from www.baseballprospectus.com (pops), they've got a pretty good track record with the numbers.

If there is anything close to a tie Rome has farking fallen.

I mean seriously folks, a threepeat for these assholes?

I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

//not voting for either of those douches BTW.

TheNewJesus: a threepeat for these assholes

They did it 1981-1993, wouldn't surprise me one bit. The only reason they ever got out was because of Perot. America will get the quasifascist hellhole it deserves, because it wants it.

I was promised a brokered convention. I'm sooo disappointed. It killed Tim to see his dream shattered.

Perhaps we can someday have a good ol' fashion civil war to give cable news something worth covering 24 hours a day.

We can only Hope^TM

It could happen, but so what? I mean, who the fark cares? The vote would go to the House, and Obama would win. End of story.

//not voting for either of those douches BTW.

I loves me some embittered Fark Independent tears.

Just when I thought the U.S. election system couldn't be more dysfunctional, more evidence comes out.

Couldn't you people design a voting system with an uneven number of votes so that a tie would be impossible? Particularly for something as important as this? Just a thought.

Better be careful ABC, Obama's feelings might be hurt by that picture.

Its not going to get to the House, several States allow some leway in how their electoral college representative vote. It would come down to bargining withing the electoral college, it won't reach the House, no way the electoral college people will say. Dangit we can't decide, lets send it to the House when its easy to calculate how the House will vote.

Spanky_McFarksalot: Better be careful ABC, Obama's feelings might be hurt by that picture.

Why? He has the ball.

Wait, I thought in the event of a tie we just break out into civil war?

That's what I was told.

Like I said in a redlit thread, FiveThirtyEight puts the chances of a tie at 0.4%, FWIW. (go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/, scroll down to the right hand sidebar under "Scenario Analysis")

It is going to be a bloodbath for the GOP in November

/Republican
//Voted Bush in 2000, Libertarian in 2004.

And if it's a tie, it goes to the House, which is pretty much guaranteed to be under Democratic control.

So, basically, if it's a tie, Obama wins.

Ok, but why is McCain drooling?

Gosling: And if it's a tie, it goes to the House, which is pretty much guaranteed to be under Democratic control.

So, basically, if it's a tie, Obama wins.

I'm trying to find a source on this, but in the event of a tie, doesn't each state only get one vote? Something like that?

I dunno, the Reps will push hard to appeal to the bigots and jesus freaks come voting time...

I say we dump the electoral college, and whomever catches the greased-up-deaf-guy wins the White House



/gets rid of months of "electoral math" news
//since its mildly homo-erotic, you know Rublicans will come out in droves

GoRedSoxGo: Gosling: And if it's a tie, it goes to the House, which is pretty much guaranteed to be under Democratic control.

So, basically, if it's a tie, Obama wins.

I'm trying to find a source on this, but in the event of a tie, doesn't each state only get one vote? Something like that?



FTA: Under the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, if one candidate does not get 270 votes, the decision gets kicked to the House of Representatives, where each state gets a vote -- a formula that would likely guarantee an Obama victory.

"Each state delegation would have one vote and whoever won a plurality of that state's delegation would get that state's vote," said Stephen Wayne, a presidential scholar at Georgetown University.

Approves

GoRedSoxGo: I'm trying to find a source on this, but in the event of a tie, doesn't each state only get one vote? Something like that?

Yes, and as I quoted from TFA above, "Currently, the Democrats hold a 26-21 lead among state delegations in the House, with three states split down the middle: Arizona, Kansas and Mississippi."

So if it's a tie, Obama wins. I don't believe it'll be close to a tie, though. McCain's not going to be the next Mondale, but I don't think it'll even be close.

GoRedSoxGo: I'm trying to find a source on this, but in the event of a tie, doesn't each state only get one vote? Something like that?

And there are more Dem representatives than Republicans.

guilt by association: GoRedSoxGo: Gosling: And if it's a tie, it goes to the House, which is pretty much guaranteed to be under Democratic control.

So, basically, if it's a tie, Obama wins.

I'm trying to find a source on this, but in the event of a tie, doesn't each state only get one vote? Something like that?



FTA: Under the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, if one candidate does not get 270 votes, the decision gets kicked to the House of Representatives, where each state gets a vote -- a formula that would likely guarantee an Obama victory.

"Each state delegation would have one vote and whoever won a plurality of that state's delegation would get that state's vote," said Stephen Wayne, a presidential scholar at Georgetown University.

Ah, there we are. I didn't RTFA. For the record, I wasn't arguing with the idea that Obama would win that - just trying to remember exactly how such a scenario would work.

glassa: I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

//not voting for either of those douches BTW.

Not really expecting McCain to win, short of Obama going from being just another dodgy character to a full-blown douche. Perceived outsider = win when approval is extremely low... and often when it isn't, too.

The perfect scenario is a tie in the electoral college with mccain getting more of the popular vote and it going to the house where the democrats vote in obama thus forcing to finally STFU about the 2000 election.

glassa: I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

I would laugh if the republicans cried foul over a 2000 scenario that went to the democrats. Then I would cry

Aar1012: glassa: I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

I would laugh if the republicans cried foul over a 2000 scenario that went to the democrats. Then I would cry

If the Republicans really thought they had a chance, they wouldn't have McCain as the nom.

Battle Royale!

DRTFA

McCain playing basketball? How would he take his foul shots? Granny style?

madbradley: Battle Royale!

DRTFA

Fight to the death, on a deserted island, between Obama and McCain?

I'm intrigued; who gets what in their pack?

I hope they both lose

Aar1012: glassa: I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

I would laugh if the republicans cried foul over a 2000 scenario that went to the democrats. Then I would cry

The election was carefully fudged in Kennedy's favor in 1960 but Nixon had enough class to know it would tear the country apart if he challenged.

Democrats on the other hand are now ordained by the universe to always win so it's Republicans cheating when they don't.

You know, all these people criticizing McCain's age and health would vote-in Ted Kennedy in a heartbeat.

STFU

Duh!
The Supreme court will decide again

vonster: You know, all these people criticizing McCain's age and health would vote-in Ted Kennedy in a heartbeat.

When you say "all these people" you end up sounding like an ass, mostly due to the inaccuracy of your statement. I'm pretty sure McCain's an original signatory on the Declaration of Independence, but the only thing time I'd back Ted Kennedy would be in a drinking contest.

roadkillontheweb: Duh!
The Supreme court will decide again

Considering some of their recent decisions and that there's only like 2 or 3 actual conservatives on there, then the Demos would win.

timujin: vonster: You know, all these people criticizing McCain's age and health would vote-in Ted Kennedy in a heartbeat.

When you say "all these people" you end up sounding like an ass, mostly due to the inaccuracy of your statement. I'm pretty sure McCain's an original signatory on the Declaration of Independence, but the only thing time I'd back Ted Kennedy would be in a drinking contest.

First I have to clarify: I meant Democrats criticizing McCain on the basis if age/health.

If you're a Democrat, are you saying you'd vote Republican if Ted was running?

http://Jeffrey.Rodriguez/
Republicrats, whoever wins, we still lose

Ain't that the truth!!!

vonster: timujin: vonster: You know, all these people criticizing McCain's age and health would vote-in Ted Kennedy in a heartbeat.

When you say "all these people" you end up sounding like an ass, mostly due to the inaccuracy of your statement. I'm pretty sure McCain's an original signatory on the Declaration of Independence, but the only thing time I'd back Ted Kennedy would be in a drinking contest.

First I have to clarify: I meant Democrats criticizing McCain on the basis if age/health.

If you're a Democrat, are you saying you'd vote Republican if Ted was running?

Let me answer for you:

If you're a liberal, you hold your nose and pull the level for Teddy.

Jim_Callahan: glassa: I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

//not voting for either of those douches BTW.

Not really expecting McCain to win, short of Obama going from being just another dodgy character to a full-blown douche. Perceived outsider = win when approval is extremely low... and often when it isn't, too.

Who says both of them AREN'T full-blown douches now?

//expects Obama to win though.
///can't wait to watch his fall from that ever high pedestal

vonster: If you're a Democrat, are you saying you'd vote Republican if Ted was running?

Seriously? You're arguing about whether people would hypothetically vote for a guy with brain cancer? That's the best you got? A "B...B...but DEMOCRATS!" based on pure conjecture, with no connection to the two actual candidates?

To answer you though, it depends on who he was running against. McCain? I'd right in "MY BALLS" and be done with it.

vonster: vonster: timujin: vonster: You know, all these people criticizing McCain's age and health would vote-in Ted Kennedy in a heartbeat.

When you say "all these people" you end up sounding like an ass, mostly due to the inaccuracy of your statement. I'm pretty sure McCain's an original signatory on the Declaration of Independence, but the only thing time I'd back Ted Kennedy would be in a drinking contest.

First I have to clarify: I meant Democrats criticizing McCain on the basis if age/health.

If you're a Democrat, are you saying you'd vote Republican if Ted was running?

Let me answer for you:

If you're a liberal, you hold your nose and pull the level for Teddy.

Awesome. Now you're talking to yourself.

Ace Frehley's Ghost: Aar1012: glassa: I still wonder which Democrat will be the first to cry "voting irregularities...ie. cheating" if McCain were to win. I fully expect it.

I would laugh if the republicans cried foul over a 2000 scenario that went to the democrats. Then I would cry

If the Republicans really thought they had a chance, they wouldn't have McCain as the nom.

Touche.
They're just giving him a bone, like they did Dole in 96.
In reality, he's Obama-lite and I refuse to vote for him.

Will watch, with glee, Obama's fall from grace though. He's been put up on such a high pedestal it'll be a BIG fall. He's not the messiah he's made out to be.