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(PhysOrg.com) Scary NASA: Apophis asteroid has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting Earth. 13 year old kid: Not so fast, it's actually 1 in 450 and if it hits a satellite in 2029, we could all die in 2036   (physorg.com) divider line 542
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542 Comments   (+0 »)


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EnderKR [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 07:05:52 PM  
That's cool. I can wait that long. I'm all for the apocalypse.

 
Dallymo [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 07:12:29 PM  
NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

whiz = genius
whizz = pee

Oh, pissboy!

 
zorgon 2008-04-15 07:15:23 PM  
Uh. There are some wierd things about this article. Atlantic ocean? That's bullshiat. And I don't think popping a spacecraft will have any kind of effect on the orbit of something as massive as Aphophis ... this is bullshiat. I'm telling Phil.

 
Skail [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 07:42:42 PM  
Meh. I've had a good run.

 
mcwebe0 [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 07:55:21 PM  
Didn't they make a movie about this in 1998?

imagecache2.allposters.com

 
Snarfangel [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 07:58:15 PM  
Is that before or after the Singularity?

 
UberDave [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 08:08:24 PM  
I likes me dem odds!!!

 
nobozo 2008-04-15 08:12:22 PM  
Glad to avoid being an old fart.

/ OK, who am I kidding?

 
SilentStrider [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 08:33:16 PM  
this stone's called apophis
it brings, apocalypse.


/obscure?

 
2xhelix [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 08:37:55 PM  
img208.imageshack.us

 
Atvar [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 08:43:40 PM  
This reads like a hoax, but AFP has picked it up. I'd wait for confirmation, given AFP's track record.

 
MacEnvy [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 09:07:15 PM  
mcwebe0: Didn't they make a movie about this in 1998?

Ugh. That movie was terrible.

And I have it on DVD.

 
Teyeger 2008-04-15 09:12:14 PM  
zorgon: Uh. There are some wierd things about this article. Atlantic ocean? That's bullshiat. And I don't think popping a spacecraft will have any kind of effect on the orbit of something as massive as Aphophis ... this is bullshiat. I'm telling Phil.

Not only that, but this kid seems to be able to predict precisely how the asteroid will deflect off the satellite and the resultant changes to its orbit. Anyone else smell BS?

 
Jubeebee 2008-04-15 09:44:31 PM  
Teyeger: zorgon: Uh. There are some wierd things about this article. Atlantic ocean? That's bullshiat. And I don't think popping a spacecraft will have any kind of effect on the orbit of something as massive as Aphophis ... this is bullshiat. I'm telling Phil.

Not only that, but this kid seems to be able to predict precisely how the asteroid will deflect off the satellite and the resultant changes to its orbit. Anyone else smell BS?


That was my reaction too. 200 billion ton asteroid hits a satellite the size of a bus and changes its trajectory JUST RIGHT to swing ~30,000 km into a collision/decaying orbit on its next pass? I'd put the odds at more than 450:1.

Plus, even if it does hit a satellite, we'll have 7 years to build Bruce Willis a spaceship to stop it.

 
Snowflake Tubbybottom 2008-04-15 10:04:41 PM  
It will be a Tuesday, 9am EST, cake and punch will be served.

Don't worry its just carom off the satellite into the moon, which will split into pieces and then its the morlocks you have to worry about.

 
shanrick [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 10:31:13 PM  
We're doomed,
DOOMED, I tells ya.

 
eff ewe 2008-04-15 10:32:09 PM  
The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

That little farker can't even spell. How am I supposed to believe his mathematical findings?

 
NYZooMan 2008-04-15 10:32:20 PM  
Bah!

Scientists are never wrong!

/is it getting warmer in here?

 
phillydrifter 2008-04-15 10:32:34 PM  
It's not going to happen.

/yawn

 
C0rf 2008-04-15 10:33:42 PM  
Hot Fudge Sundae will land on a Tuesdae that year.

/obscure?
//I, too, would prefer this happen post-Singularity

 
scavenger 2008-04-15 10:33:55 PM  
A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Many boffins died to bring us this information

 
wulfegang 2008-04-15 10:34:14 PM  
Ok, the article isn't what freaks me out....it's the fact that I turned on the TV while going to FARK at the same time and they were talking about this asteroid the exact moment I read the headline...

 
HowlingFrog [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 10:34:22 PM  
I predict that it'll land on Donald Trump's hair, and shatter into harmless fragments.

 
Prof_Moriarity 2008-04-15 10:34:57 PM  
Does this mean a bug has a 1:450 chance of knocking my car off the highway this summer?

My commute just got a helluva lot more interesting.

 
lordargent 2008-04-15 10:35:12 PM  

 
He Who Shall Not Be Named 2008-04-15 10:35:28 PM  
I believe with all my heart that a 13 year old can do the math for this. He just sits down and takes all the info and a scratch pad and poof, tells nasa urdoingitwrong.

/Yeah Right

 
NeverDrunk23 2008-04-15 10:35:34 PM  
It won't happen, people, so stop acting like chicken littles.

We all know that the world is ending in Dec 2012, so this hit is impossible.

 
turingtest 2008-04-15 10:35:51 PM  
content.answers.com
Approves

 
Sweet Chin Music 2008-04-15 10:35:52 PM  
Apophis? Meh, SG-1 will save the day.

 
vlakorados 2008-04-15 10:36:01 PM  
Aren't the portal storms that start the Seven Hour War supposed to happend before then? We should be okay.


Oh, wait...

 
Phone_Answering_Monkey 2008-04-15 10:36:14 PM  
Good work. Ya bastard.

 
Gigglecream 2008-04-15 10:36:26 PM  
Without reading the article (and being considerably drunk), I'm going to state the following: ZOMBIES! RUM!

 
Unknown_Poltroon [recently expired TotalFark] 2008-04-15 10:36:34 PM  

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.


Huh????

 
mr iso [TotalFark] 2008-04-15 10:36:40 PM  
wulfegang: Ok, the article isn't what freaks me out....it's the fact that I turned on the TV while going to FARK at the same time and they were talking about this asteroid the exact moment I read the headline...

I love the history channel.

 
maxheck 2008-04-15 10:36:50 PM  
Complete and utter crap.

 
ronaprhys 2008-04-15 10:37:03 PM  
Wait a goddamned minute here. We couldn't even predict where that damned satellite might've gone down and now some 13yo kraut is telling us that it's going to hit the Atlantic?

Shenanigans, I'm telling you. Shenanigans - no different than Michael Jackson saying he's a normal black guy.

 
Grahilah 2008-04-15 10:37:27 PM  
Pretty long shot. But still...

bp1.blogger.com

 
Phil Herup 2008-04-15 10:37:28 PM  
www.mtholyoke.edu

 
kilgorn 2008-04-15 10:37:30 PM  
If Fed-Ex were delivering this asteroid instead of UPS,
I'd be here on April 1st

 
C0rf 2008-04-15 10:37:44 PM  
scavenger
Many boffins died to bring us this information

I cannot stop chuckling.

 
Sum Guye 2008-04-15 10:38:10 PM  
Social security should last that long so I'm happy.

 
buttcat 2008-04-15 10:38:12 PM  
no EVERYBODY PANIC!!!! in the submitted headline? 450:1 I think is panic territory.

That said, I can't see a 200 billion ton hunk of speedy rock smashing in to a tinfoil satellite altering it's course to smash in to the earth. If that was the case we could just launch a slightly larger satellite in to it and deflect it in to Neptune or something.

 
Mike Greenwell 2008-04-15 10:38:18 PM  
There's a 1 in 1 chance I don't care.

 
kidsizedcoffin 2008-04-15 10:38:31 PM  
So drink the cool aid?

 
Illfindsomething 2008-04-15 10:38:33 PM  
Please people let's react rationally.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH we all gona die!

/Run around with hands on each side of the head Half life scientist style.

 
Unknown_Poltroon [recently expired TotalFark] 2008-04-15 10:38:42 PM  
ronaprhys: Wait a goddamned minute here. We couldn't even predict where that damned satellite might've gone down and now some 13yo kraut is telling us that it's going to hit the Atlantic?

Shenanigans, I'm telling you. Shenanigans - no different than Michael Jackson saying he's a normal black guy.


Actually, Id be willing to buy this. Youre gonna know exactly where the earth is, exactly where teh asteroid is, and should be able to tell pretty much its trajectory and crap. I mean, once youve done the math to figure out the orbit, rough location at time of impact should be easy.

 
NYZooMan 2008-04-15 10:38:53 PM  
lordargent: Threepeat

My redlighted post
2005-10-31: Apophis set to destroy the earth. Samantha Carter will find a way to save us

Someone gets a greenlight about a month later.
"2005-12-06: It's called Apophis. It's 390m wide. And it could hit Earth in 31 years time"

Update, 2/1/06, Yet another Apophis article, such is the nature of fark.
"Based on the latest information, the asteroid, which is nearly twice the size of Qualcomm Stadium, has a 1-in-6250 chance of colliding with Earth on April 13, 2036." Apparently there are other astero+++NO CARRI


You sound bitter enough to need to take comfort in guns, religion, anti-immigration, ...

 
xtex 2008-04-15 10:39:53 PM  
That's okay, on Tuesday, January 19, 2038 at 3:14:07 UTC, the world is going to end, even if this asteroid doesn't hit us.

 
redbloodwyn 2008-04-15 10:39:53 PM  
Gigglecream: Without reading the article (and being considerably drunk), I'm going to state the following: ZOMBIES! RUM!

Even with your drunken state I am completely willing to believe in the zombie factor. Not so much rum.

 
HMS_Blinkin 2008-04-15 10:39:58 PM  
Unknown_Poltroon: Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

Huh????


Seems rather more dense than I would have expected....

 
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