What do they use the extra bedroom for?

Not too hot on the article, but I think I'd watch the TV program made around the second half of the headline.

Who gets the $100 bill?

LOL like Texas would ever vote Democratic. Please. They are WAY underestimating the gross ignorance of the Texan voter. We (as a state) are probably dumb enough to vote for Bush again, for God's sake.

Yesdog: LOL like Texas would ever vote Democratic. Please. They are WAY underestimating the gross ignorance of the Texan voter. We (as a state) are probably dumb enough to vote for Bush again, for God's sake.

I think you're way underestimating the gross ignorance of Markos Moulitsas...

Etchy333: What do they use the extra bedroom for?

Jesus. He stops by for keggers sometimes.

King Something is that before or after he does the yard work?

I honestly think Obama could make it competitive. He may never win it, but he may make McCain campaign there.

DamnYankees: I honestly think Obama could make it competitive. He may never win it, but he may make McCain campaign there.

I wish that were true. What will happen is that Obama will take the Austin area in a landslide, and McCain will take the rest of the state. So McCain will get all the electoral votes. However, both candidates will campaign here because there is a great deal of fund raising potential for both of them.

/I hope I am wrong
//Would love to see Texas go blue
///Perhaps if we get Obama a Rick Perry wig?

Empanda: DamnYankees: I honestly think Obama could make it competitive. He may never win it, but he may make McCain campaign there.

I wish that were true. What will happen is that Obama will take the Austin area in a landslide, and McCain will take the rest of the state. So McCain will get all the electoral votes. However, both candidates will campaign here because there is a great deal of fund raising potential for both of them.

/I hope I am wrong
//Would love to see Texas go blue
///Perhaps if we get Obama a Rick Perry wig?

The most recent SurveyUSA poll of Obama v. McCain in Texas only had McCain winning by a single point, and SurveyUSA has been the best pollster this cycle. I don't think its outlandish.

Texas was a reliably Blue state until 1980. Consider that California was a Red state until 1992.

Things change. The population of Texas is changing. Houston, Dallas, and Austin have been trending democratic in recent years. Other states with major population growth are ripe to flip. VA, NC, and others.

submitter: live together in New Jersey

Which exit?

Texas is no more up for grabs than New York or California are.

Kos has been reading too many of the batshiat crazy diaries at Daily Kos.

ripe to flip. VA, NC, and others.

Obama won't win one Southern state. He's going to beaten so bad here that they will probably turn off the voting machines early.

Don't bother with the poll numbers. Polls now don't mean anything in Nov. I'm also taking into account the full scale annihilation the Repubs are going to pull on Obama's record and character.

See 2000 and 2004 for recent examples. All the buzz words are in place too. Most liberal, Chicago Democrat, soft on defense, inexperienced, blah blah blah.

Gonna get real ugly real fast as soon as Clinton is out of the way. You guys just think Clinton has shown you dirty politics. You have seen nothing.

barneyfifesbullet: Kos has been reading too many of the batshiat crazy diaries at Daily Kos.

He even said once that Democrats might take Hastert's vacant seat, in a district that has gone Republican for decades.

Oh, wait..

barneyfifesbullet:

snip lunacy

So ... what color's the sky in your world?

Transhumanist: Yesdog: LOL like Texas would ever vote Democratic. Please. They are WAY underestimating the gross ignorance of the Texan voter. We (as a state) are probably dumb enough to vote for Bush again, for God's sake.

I think you're way underestimating the gross ignorance of Markos Moulitsas...

Winner!

barneyfifesbullet: ripe to flip. VA, NC, and others.

Obama won't win one Southern state. He's going to beaten so bad here that they will probably turn off the voting machines early.

Don't bother with the poll numbers. Polls now don't mean anything in Nov. I'm also taking into account the full scale annihilation the Repubs are going to pull on Obama's record and character.

See 2000 and 2004 for recent examples. All the buzz words are in place too. Most liberal, Chicago Democrat, soft on defense, inexperienced, blah blah blah.

Gonna get real ugly real fast as soon as Clinton is out of the way. You guys just think Clinton has shown you dirty politics. You have seen nothing.

0 for 643,857 on predictions so far, but okay.

So, the headline is about Daily KOS, but the link goes somewhere else..

Empanda: Obama will take the Austin area in a landslide, and McCain will take the rest of the state.

I think Obama would also take Dallas County and Denton County, and will very likely get some the counties along the Mexican Border.

EponymousCowHerd: Texas was a reliably Blue state until 1980.

I'd argue that Texas' voting demographics are one of the best examples of the major switch in party ideologies that started after the 1968 Dem convention, when middle-class christians started supporting Reagan; eventually leading to the socially conservative branch of the Republican party. There's a new book coming out soon that explains much of that change. But, Texas still has a lot of voters with a Democratic background. Despite much of the conservatism in rural areas, Texas isn't as "red" as people make them/us out to be.

Transhumanist: I think you're way underestimating the gross ignorance of Markos Moulitsas...

So, in other words, you're either a right-wing type troll, or a MyDD'er / Hillaryis44 type troll. Or do you have some sort of evidence of Markos' "gross ignorance"?

With the fundraising gap being what it is, it's a victory just by forcing McCain to spend money to defend Texas- a massive state with tons of electoral votes that by all rights should be solid red. That dips into his funds in other states, states which are then more vulnerable to an Obama steal.

Basically, Obama may lose Texas, but in the process he weakens McCain's defenses enough to take Virginia and North Dakota.

Gosling: With the fundraising gap being what it is, it's a victory just by forcing McCain to spend money to defend Texas- a massive state with tons of electoral votes that by all rights should be solid red. That dips into his funds in other states, states which are then more vulnerable to an Obama steal.

McCain could do the same in New England by choosing Gov Jodi Rell of Connecticut as his running mate. It wouldn't be enough to swing CT, but it would make it more difficult to defend, as well as having some effect on New Hampshire.

Not only is Obama not going to be remotely competitive in Texas, but the demographic breakdown of his supporters males it quite likely that he's going to lose a lot of states Democrats usually win:

Very detailed breakdown of primary results (and no, not a Rick Roll)

Take a look at those county-by-county maps. Obama wins among blacks, affluent whites and in college towns. He loses among white blue collar voters, Hispanics, older voters, Catholics, you name it. All constituencies that McCain does particularly well at.

Obama supporters keep saying he could win 40 states. Actually, I think the reverse is most likely true.

LawrencePerson: Very detailed breakdown of primary results (and no, not a Rick Roll)

No, but I'm not about to click on 'Real Clear Politics'.

LawrencePerson: Not only is Obama not going to be remotely competitive in Texas, but the demographic breakdown of his supporters males it quite likely that he's going to lose a lot of states Democrats usually win:

Very detailed breakdown of primary results (and no, not a Rick Roll)

Take a look at those county-by-county maps. Obama wins among blacks, affluent whites and in college towns. He loses among white blue collar voters, Hispanics, older voters, Catholics, you name it. All constituencies that McCain does particularly well at.

Obama supporters keep saying he could win 40 states. Actually, I think the reverse is most likely true.

Anything suggesting Hillary may have a point probably isn't a good place to get information on where Obama may or may not win. Remember, their polling information is only for states that count.

Etchy333: What do they use the extra bedroom for?

God.

LawrencePerson: Not only is Obama not going to be remotely competitive in Texas, but the demographic breakdown of his supporters males it quite likely that he's going to lose a lot of states Democrats usually win:

Very detailed breakdown of primary results (and no, not a Rick Roll)

Take a look at those county-by-county maps. Obama wins among blacks, affluent whites and in college towns. He loses among white blue collar voters, Hispanics, older voters, Catholics, you name it. All constituencies that McCain does particularly well at.

Obama supporters keep saying he could win 40 states. Actually, I think the reverse is most likely true.

Did you forget your Fox and Corkums?

the article is stupid. not that anyone's discussing it. it calls Kos a hypocrit because he refers to a super-delegate flip for hillary as a 'coup' but is fine with the texas primary going for obama "against the will of the [first primary]" voters. this is crap. people who caucused are also voters. superdelegates are supervoters. its different.

\i know no one cares

if any of you think John McCain is going to be able to keep up 8 months of campaigning without ending up looking like Bob Dole you are sadly mistaken.

Say no to Four McMore.

the south is irrelevant. We should have let them go back in the Civil War.

Well, save VA. Which Obama will win. And CO, and NM. And he wins.

I have said for months that Texas will be a swing state. It may not go DEM, but with one party politics reigning for over a decade, there are a lot of disaffected peopel in the state, don't be surprised if it becomes something.

I think that the wheels are coming off of the Clinton campaign, and it will be a barn burner in PA (at this point, I think she will win, but by a very close margin)

I know that out there in the rest of the country that you think we all ride horses to work, but Texas urban areas are growing fast. Houston will double in size (over 6 million in the metro) in the next 8 years at the rate we are going. A lot of these people are liberal. If you look at the current state polls Obama and McCain are within the margin of error.

Considering that when you put the two of them on stage together in a couple of debates and Obama embarrases McCain when he insist that Al Queda has set up base in Iran; McCain could very easily lose Texas. Oh and the only reason Rick Perry is still in office is the fact than Kinky Freidman took votes from Chris Bell. Texans hate Rick Perry in the cities.

I live in Texas. It's still very much Republican town, but I have not seen this level of Democratic enthusiasm is such time. I personally do think Texas is up for grabs.

LawrencePerson: Obama supporters keep saying he could win lose 40 10 states. Actually, I think the reverse is most likely true.

Reversed TFY.

I dunno: there's A LOT of Texans down here that drink the Kool-Aid.

On the other hand, my "George W. Bush is a lying sack of shiat"* t-shirt does seem to go over better now than it did years ago - less if-looks-could-kill stares anyway.

I actually got spontaneous applause from a roomful of folks at a convenience store in Louisiana back in November.

*Got it at whitehouse.org. I had to replace my "Impeach Bush & Cheney" shirt from 2003. F*ckers.

It'd be interesting to keep a file of all of these predictions and see how they pan out. I guess, though, that pundits generally keep their jobs no matter how bad their track record is, so it probably wouldn't be worth the effort.

nygenxer: I dunno: there's A LOT of Texans down here that drink the Kool-Aid.

On the other hand, my "George W. Bush is a lying sack of shiat"* t-shirt does seem to go over better now than it did years ago - less if-looks-could-kill stares anyway.

I actually got spontaneous applause from a roomful of folks at a convenience store in Louisiana back in November.

*Got it at whitehouse.org. I had to replace my "Impeach Bush & Cheney" shirt from 2003. F*ckers.

I have noticed a severe decline in W stickers in Houston.

Number41: It'd be interesting to keep a file of all of these predictions and see how they pan out. I guess, though, that pundits generally keep their jobs no matter how bad their track record is, so it probably wouldn't be worth the effort.

Oh I think Obama vs McCain would cause a lot of previously assumed "Red" or "Blue" states to be very much up for grabs.

It is going to be interesting to see just how disparate the Union has grown over the centuries.

"But Democrats concerned about electability should be worried if Obama turns out not to be the "post- racial candidate" his supporters have lauded him as. Even before his association with Reverend Wright was reported, Obama's appeal to whites and Hispanics was collapsing. Hillary Clinton gained impressive wins in Ohio and Texas in large part because the multi-racial coalition which Obama seemed to have constructed began to crumble. In Ohio Obama lost 27-70% among white Democrats, while carrying Black voters 88-12%. In Texas he lost among white Democrats 37-62% and by an even larger margin (30-69%) among Hispanic Democrats."

Yeah, that sure sounds like someone who's a threat to take Texas...

LawrencePerson: Yeah, that sure sounds like someone who's a threat to take Texas...

How many people voted in the Democratic Primary as opposed to the Republican in Texas?

I have noticed a severe decline in W stickers in Houston.

Oh yeah, you're right! Totally slipped my mind.

Good point.

DaSwankOne: nygenxer: I dunno: there's A LOT of Texans down here that drink the Kool-Aid.

On the other hand, my "George W. Bush is a lying sack of shiat"* t-shirt does seem to go over better now than it did years ago - less if-looks-could-kill stares anyway.

I actually got spontaneous applause from a roomful of folks at a convenience store in Louisiana back in November.

*Got it at whitehouse.org. I had to replace my "Impeach Bush & Cheney" shirt from 2003. F*ckers.

I have noticed a severe decline in W stickers in Houston.

Oh yeah, you're right! Totally slipped my mind.

Good point.

(Apologies for the double post.)

EponymousCowHerd: Texas was a reliably Blue state until 1980. Consider that California was a Red state until 1992.

Things change. The population of Texas is changing. Houston, Dallas, and Austin have been trending democratic in recent years. Other states with major population growth are ripe to flip. VA, NC, and others.

THIS. Intro to Poly Sci, election trends

Yesdog: LOL like Texas would ever vote Democratic. Please. They are WAY underestimating the gross ignorance of the Texan voter. We (as a state) are probably dumb enough to vote for Bush again, for God's sake.

The internet has failed me at verifying this, but we were pretty much constantly straight-ticket blue before Reagan, if I recall high-school polysci correctly. And apparently it was pretty close on Clinton v. Dole in the 90s.

So, basically, you're either a farking moron, or simply both young and completely illiterate. Nice try, though.

The author of the article neglects to point out that the historical presidential margin of victory is a stupid measurement (1) because Bush is from Texas and (2) because the recent strategy has been to keep your safe states safe and go after the "battle grounds."

Obama's 50-state strategy has the potential to make McCain into the Republican Dukakis/Mondale (i.e., he'll win his home state and not much else).

Etchy333: What do they use the extra bedroom for?

The reindeer have to sleep somewhere...

Also real and lives in Jersey

/notice the santa hat

Aarontology: Gosling: With the fundraising gap being what it is, it's a victory just by forcing McCain to spend money to defend Texas- a massive state with tons of electoral votes that by all rights should be solid red. That dips into his funds in other states, states which are then more vulnerable to an Obama steal.

McCain could do the same in New England by choosing Gov Jodi Rell of Connecticut as his running mate. It wouldn't be enough to swing CT, but it would make it more difficult to defend, as well as having some effect on New Hampshire.

Connecticut and New Hampshire are tiny, with one, maybe two media markets each. Texas is farking huge, with at least eight media markets off the top of my head: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso, Lubbock, Austin, Corpus Christi, Amarillo.

It is simple and inexpensive for Obama to defend Connecticut and New Hampshire if need be, especially given his fundraising ability. It is complicated and expensive for McCain to defend Texas if need be, especially given his fundraising ability in comparison to Obama's.

Yesdog: LOL like Texas would ever vote Democratic. Please. They are WAY underestimating the gross ignorance of the Texan voter. We (as a state) are probably dumb enough to vote for Bush again, for God's sake.

this is where the writer of this article shows his stunning ignorance.

Texas is not as red as it appears, out of the 32 current congressmen 13 of them are Democrats and 5 more were before Tom dDelay's infamous Gerrymandering coup of a few year ago which means that until recently a majority of Texas Congressmen were Democrats. Now add to that a weak Republican who alienates the ultra-conservative base of texas voters, and (ia m prediciting) a pretty large Democratic swing to the votes coming out of Fort Hood and Fort Bliss, and I think a Blue texas is more than possible, it's likely.


PS to the Article writer: Obama's lead in delegates in the State Hillary won the primary by 4% in is not a "coup" but the farking system Texas has always had X delegates in the Primary; X delegates in the caucus. Obama narrowly lost the primary and overwhelmingly won the caucus.