I for one always look to the American Conservative magazine to tell me what Democrats are thinking.

Dinki: I for one always look to the American Conservative magazine to tell me what Democrats are thinking.

Very true. Not to mention that A) no one said it'd be a "cakewalk" and B) the columnist breaks down the entire poll as something to worry about for the Obama campaign and misses the BIG numbers at the top - Obama 50, McCain 43.

This cake was made for walkin', and that's what it'll do. One of these days this cake is gonna walk all over you!

Yes, because The American Conservative has been so right about so many of their own campaign issues...

Most remarkable of all is that Obama is weaker among Democrats in all age groups than Clinton.

So the fact that Obama has won the past 11 primary races in a row means that he's virtually a goner now...?

why does the math hate Obama!? why!?

So I made a short Obama video based on the "Bill Clinton edorses Obama" story from yesterday... what do you think?

Link (new window)

mferris: So I made a short Obama video based on the "Bill Clinton edorses Obama" story from yesterday... what do you think?

Link (new window)

Well done, has the Obama campaign committee sent you a check yet?

Ha! I wish. :-)

mferris: what do you think?

Nice, but you need to pump up the volume.

I didn't know you made that - very nice. The more of these out the better.

Here is madmann's

Aw, damn.. didn't realize someone already got to it. :-) Good job madmann...

The only Democrat in the race likely to listen to The American Conservative's views on anything

You mean it'll be difficult for a black man to become President of the USA? The devil you say!

i already broke apart the math that comes to this conclusion in another thread.

basically it's a result of continuing to fudge the numbers a little more until finally you get the results you want. the count includes michigan for chrissakes, obama wasn't even on the ballot there, all obama supporters in michigan were left out of the count. and when the math was stretched to the breaking point, clinton only musters a 2% edge.

Cakewalk? Hillary Clinton had the nomination locked up according to these geniuses, calling her the de facto nominee for the Democratic party ever since Bush was reelected[1].

How soon they forget.

m0llusk: This cake was made for walkin', and that's what it'll do. One of these days this cake is gonna walk all over you!

Well, fine. See what you did? We were going to have a big party in your honor. There was going to be cake. We were going to invite all your friends. But we can't. Because you've killed them all. In the polls.



quickdraw:

Yes We Can.

Who doesn't love singing pizza rapping about the Bush,Bush,Bush,Clinton,Clinton,Bush,Bush etc. Dynasty?

I know I do

I won't attack the source (as others have done), but I will attack what it states:

Most remarkable of all is that Obama is weaker among Democrats in all age groups than Clinton. He is four points weaker, and McCain five points stronger, among Democratic voters aged 18-49 than in a Clinton v. McCain race. The losses are even greater among Democratic voters 50-64 and 65+. Democratic defections increase across income groups as well. Obama does much better in the younger age groups among independents, but if the Democratic numbers are any indication this seems to have less to do with age than with style. Probably the same thing that makes Obama attractive to independents (he doesn't always sound like a regular Democrat) is what is undermining him with Democratic voters.

Umm, he's behind Hillary when it comes to young voters?

/feel free to prove me wrong

Bong Hits for Obama! WOOHOO!

None of this means anything.

Just because Dems are split between Obama nad Hillary (and it is a split, she isn't winning dems by like 20 points or anything that would indicate real trouble) hardly means dems won't unite behind Obama in the fall.

The idea is pretty ludicrous.

The presidency will be decided as we see what happens in Iraq the next 8 months, whether or not we go into a full fledged recession, and how people respond to the 300 debates they will hold.

Tell me if I'm wrong but I think the five year anniversary of the Iraq war is this month which will sadly coincide with the 4000th troop death.

On the bright side, if all goes to McCain's plan we only have 95 years to go!

What strikes me is that the normal trend is Republicans closing the gap near the election due to superior monetary resources. They run more commercials/saturate markets, and so on.

But Obama is a fundraising magnet, and McCain has almost gone broke at a couple points. I can't imagine McCain outspending him.

Who the hell said it was going to be a cakewalk?

This is going to be an eye-gouging, groin-kicking, ear-biting fight to the end.

Bill Frist: Just because Dems are split between Obama nad Hillary (and it is a split, she isn't winning dems by like 20 points or anything that would indicate real trouble) hardly means dems won't unite behind Obama in the fall.

I dunno about that. I'm not saying that political wonks are by any means a barometer of the enfranchised public, but there are an awful lot of bitter Hillary supporters threatening to stay home.

mferris: So I made a short Obama video based on the "Bill Clinton edorses Obama" story from yesterday... what do you think?

Needs more cowbell... (new window)

miseducated [TotalFark] Quote 2008-03-01 04:38:16 PM
Bill Frist: Just because Dems are split between Obama nad Hillary (and it is a split, she isn't winning dems by like 20 points or anything that would indicate real trouble) hardly means dems won't unite behind Obama in the fall.

I dunno about that. I'm not saying that political wonks are by any means a barometer of the enfranchised public, but there are an awful lot of bitter Hillary supporters threatening to stay home.

I doubt that.

First off, Hillary isn't very popular. Most of her votes are because of her last name. Her biggest demographic is people who pay no attention to politics. Seriously. They did a poll in texas and poeple who had seen no debates favored Clinton by 20 points but voters who had seen at least one debate favored Obama by 20.

She does have some diehard female supporters, but frankly I don't think omst of those like her either. I know a lot of those people and they only want to see a woman president. Any woman. They don't like anything about Hillary at all except her genitals.

I think both groups would quickly come around to Obama when facing the prospect of a McCain presidency in the fall.

----

Plus, surely you aren't suggesting the reverse would be better? Clearly there would be FAR more pissed off Obama supporters if he lost. Especially when you consider he has won everything and Hillary can only win by getting the super delegates to back her.

You really think African Americans, the Dems most loyal voting bloc, are going to take it kindly if back room deals steal the nomination from a black politician who won the pouplar vote and the pledged delegates?

note: especially after the Clintons constant race baiting in the election?

Does Experience Matter in a President? (new window)

In states with open primaries, far fewer people describe themselves as Democrat or Republican. I would describe myself as independent, even though I'm pretty liberal. But I still check the 'Democrat' box on the ballot to vote for my candidate.

So if the pollsters ask if you describe yourself as a Democrat, instead of whether or not you usually vote Democratic, they are probably selecting for more people who support Clinton.

The 'more Democrats support Clinton' idea means nothing, considering Obama's continual solid wins.

Bill Frist: First off, Hillary isn't very popular. Most of her votes are because of her last name. Her biggest demographic is people who pay no attention to politics. Seriously. They did a poll in texas and poeple who had seen no debates favored Clinton by 20 points but voters who had seen at least one debate favored Obama by 20.

She does have some diehard female supporters, but frankly I don't think omst of those like her either. I know a lot of those people and they only want to see a woman president. Any woman. They don't like anything about Hillary at all except her genitals.

I think both groups would quickly come around to Obama when facing the prospect of a McCain presidency in the fall.

Agreed. Some of the hardcore female voters who support Hillary because she is a woman may be too bitter to vote at all in November, but I think most of those people will vote for Obama, disappointed though they may be. He's way more pro-choice than McCain, for example, which should help him with the feminist contingent. They may wish they could vote for a woman, but they won't vote for an anti-choice Republican over Obama.

It's been a bitter primary fight, but the Republicans have a lot to answer for from the last 7 years. There will be ample ammunition to use against McCain.

I came for the article, but the true gem was this picture:

OM NOM NOM NOM

Obama is losing support from the Democrats!

Clinton is gaining support with Conservatives!

Give Clinton the nomination to run against McCain!

Ignore the man behind the curtain!

Bill Frist: First off, Hillary isn't very popular. Most of her votes are because of her last name. Her biggest demographic is people who pay no attention to politics. Seriously. They did a poll in texas and poeple who had seen no debates favored Clinton by 20 points but voters who had seen at least one debate favored Obama by 20.

Still, that whole 20% of white Democrats voting for McCain is something to be worried about. (new window)

Although attention has been focused on McCain's problems with the GOP base, there are indications that some Democrats might defect if Obama is the party's nominee. Overall, 20% of white Democratic voters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. That is twice the percentage of white Democrats who say they would support McCain in a Clinton-McCain matchup. Older Democrats (ages 65 and older), lower-income and less educated Democrats also would support McCain at higher levels if Obama rather than Clinton is the party's nominee.

And a funny picture from the Pew survey -


I think McCain's should be 'old, white, status quo'.

Agreed. Some of the hardcore female voters who support Hillary because she is a woman may be too bitter to vote at all in November, but I think most of those people will vote for Obama, disappointed though they may be. He's way more pro-choice than McCain, for example, which should help him with the feminist contingent. They may wish they could vote for a woman, but they won't vote for an anti-choice Republican over Obama.

I think the bottom line on this argument is the following:

Democratic voters are going to vote for the Democratic candidate no matter what, especially after 8 years of Bush. That is just how it is going to be. Will there be bitter Hillary fans? Yes, sure. Were there bitter Dean fans? Of course. There are bitter fans every primary race.

But since the dem voters will vote dem, the question becomes turn out.

The Clinton fans are mostly yellow-dog democrats who vote in high numbers always (union voters, women, old people). I think it is highly unlikely they wouldn't turn out in the fall.

The Obama fans, OTOH, include groups like young people and african-americans who typically have low turnout and are the most likely to not turn out int he fall if they feel pissed off.

Dinki: I for one always look to the American Conservative magazine to tell me what Democrats are thinking.

FTFA: that is what the latest Pew survey shows happening with Obama Not only do Democratic defections nearly double in a McCain v. Obama race, but Obama loses a fifth of white Democrats to McCain, and he runs seventeen points behind Clinton among
OMG!!! Look at the SOURCE reporting!!!

Shaggy_C:

My assertion though is this:

It will be far easier for Obama to mind his rift with Clinton voters (old people, women, yellow-dog working class dems) than it will be for Clinton to mend her rift with Obama's main voters (young people, blacks, progressives).

Clinton would do far worse than Obama in the general, there is no doubt in my mind.

FTFA: that is what the latest Pew survey shows happening with Obama Not only do Democratic defections nearly double in a McCain v. Obama race, but Obama loses a fifth of white Democrats to McCain, and he runs seventeen points behind Clinton among

Also FTFA and the source:

Obama does better against McCain in head to head match-ups.

Isn't that the more relevant point?

Bill Frist: Shaggy_C:

My assertion though is this:

It will be far easier for Obama to mind his rift with Clinton voters (old people, women, yellow-dog working class dems) than it will be for Clinton to mend her rift with Obama's main voters (young people, blacks, progressives).

Clinton would do far worse than Obama in the general, there is no doubt in my mind.

And Hillary has more weak points for attack during the general election.

KushanMadman
What strikes me is that the normal trend is Republicans closing the gap near the election due to superior monetary resources. They run more commercials/saturate markets, and so on.

But Obama is a fundraising magnet, and McCain has almost gone broke at a couple points. I can't imagine McCain outspending him.


But FOX News will outspend him. And don't forget the biggest thing the Republicans have going for them: the ratfarkers currently lodged in the White House and the Naval Observatory - who will ensure that we are properly terrorized with "reports" about attack plots. I wouldn't put it past these freaks to stage some sort of attack or make a terrorist mountain of some molehill we've had our eyes on. All Bush/Cheney have to do is escalate tensions somewhere (like Iran) and the field tilts in McCain's favor.

The Republicans may be completely incompetent when it comes to governing, but ratfarking the American political system is something they do very well. They will use their power to seat McCain.

And finally, the Media:

Jeffrey Zucker, CEO NBC TV, Zionist
Robert Iger, CEO ABC, Zionist
Leslie Moonves, CEO CBS, grandnephew of David Ben Gurion, Zionist
Jonathon Klein, CEO CNN, Zionist
Peter F. Chernin, President and COO FOX, Zionist

Greater Israelers want McCain or Hillary, period. Remember this is the same "liberal" media that sold you the Iraq War, spoonfeeding you every lie and distortion without even making the pretense of checking the facts. The same "liberal" media that has gone out of its way to ignore Obama (in favor of Hillary) - until he just couldn't be ignored any longer. The same "liberal" media that turned the Discovery Times channel into a 24/7 Hitler/Nazi/Holocaust channel when Israel invaded Southern Lebanon this last time around.

The New York Times doing McCain the huge favor of disarming the LobbyGate bomb for him is evidence of this. You will see more.

Obama is doomed.

hubiestubert: Yes, because The American Conservative has been so right about so many of their own campaign issues...

Actually, they have generally been right about GWB, and Iraq.

Or at least righter than the GOP has been.

How is Obama polling with the ones who really decide things now in United States elections; Illegal Aliens.

It ain't no secret that Mexicans and Black people ain't fond of one another. Besides, Clinton is the illegal alien's meal ticket.

Bill Frist: Obama does better against McCain in head to head match-ups.

Isn't that the more relevant point?

Definitely. The article seems to be cherry-picking data from the survey that might lead you to conclude that Clinton is more electable vs. McCain. I smell another GOP attempt to pick their opponent.

(Keep in mind, also, that polling numbers are a dynamic thing. Obama and Clinton's current GE numbers are almost certainly being affected by their current primary fight. Things will change once there is a Democratic nominee and they can start running solely against McCain and drawing sharp differences with him.)

Wow. It's almost as if the Republicans *want* Hillary to win, what with all their fancy arithmetic and stuff. Who is this blogwriter, Harry Seldon?

Oh. And of course, it should be mentioned that it isn't who says they will vote for a candidate that actually matters--It's who will actually vote for a candidate that matters.

And Obama has been exemplary in GOTV. He is getting people to the polls who wouldn't have gone otherwise.

THAT's what's really important.

Apik0r0s: Greater Israelers

You should stick with 'Zionists'; it's much more scar-sounding.

Shaggy_C: scar-

-I'd like to buy a vowel - um....'Y'.
-Mr. C, 'Y' is a consonant.

FAIL.

Apik0r0s: ...
Leslie Moonves, CEO CBS, grandnephew of David Ben Gurion, Zionist
...

Stretching a point, much? Grandnephew? I'm sure my grand uncle had great effects on me, too. Especially if I had the slightest idea who any of them were.

/your family may vary

I've never before heard of any poll that shows Hillary doing better than Obama against the Republicans. I'm calling bullshiat.

/vote early
//vote often
///vote Obama

Remove all Republicans: I thought that was the Clinton strategy.

I've been posting those lines since before the Iowa caucus.
I like to think it's my strategy... :)