The phrase "Some damn fool thing in the Balkans..." comes to mind.

Odds of Russia following through on this threat: zero.

They will break them....

So what's the german response?

Very nice headline. Nah, just kidding. It's cliche and unoriginal.

/just bitter about the articles I've "submitted with a better headline" that keep getting beat out by "Nah, just kidding"

I hope we get to bomb the Chinese embassy again.

Sgygus: Odds of Russia following through on this threat: zero.

Well, we've moved away from large unit tactics, so we'll be pretty rusty. The up-armored HMMWVS's and MRAPs are too heavy for the muddy region. Apaches can't handle the terrain.

How long would it take to float several tank divisions there? Most of our gear in Europe has been flown to support the efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Russia could roll in there in days and we'd have to disgorge them from a mountainous and highly defensible position?

Yup, Russia won't do shiat. They aren't trying to reassert themselves as a powerful nation or anything. Nosiree.

Hmmm... Kosovo/Serbia is two countries away, landlocked, and the Russians don't have anywhere enough air transport available to do anything big.



Kosovo: Near.
Russia: Far.

Near... Far... Near... Far...

MasterThief: Near... Far... Near... Far...

lol

MasterThief: Hmmm... Kosovo/Serbia is two countries away, landlocked, and the Russians don't have anywhere enough air transport available to do anything big.

Ukraine is reliant upon Russia for fuel, they will not stop them. Romania? Yer joking right?

Russian forces could use a good ass kicking, if you ask me

I think you are right, NewportBarGuy, so far as Russia could occupy Serbia and most of Kosovo before we could do anything about it. But (and it's a big butt) the political fallout would last fifty years and to Russia's detriment.

Sgygus: But (and it's a big butt) the political fallout would last fifty years and to Russia's detriment.

I'm not disagreeing with you there, but Russia is dead set on reasserting their role as a legitimate power. How does one do that? They have to actually use their military forces in the role of an aggressor.

Their power lies in their land forces. If they can roll in their quick enough, partition the northern part of Kosovo, there is nothing we will do about it, and Russia comes off looking like a hero to their people and the Serbians for protecting their interests and sticking it to the U.S. and NATO.

I could be wrong, but I think this is exactly what Putin has been waiting for to put Russia back in the power game.

We've let chimpy hitler run the roost, it's time we let the russians take over our country. Maybe they'd to better compared to chimpy's reign.

NewportBarGuy: Ukraine is reliant upon Russia for fuel, they will not stop them. Romania? Yer joking right?

Russia would be driving Ukraine right into the arms of NATO if they started with the tank convoys, and Romania is a full NATO member and can easily invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter. The Russians won't push it that far. They're crazy, not stupid.

The other consideration is air support. Since the mission would only involve blowing stuff up and not actually holding any territory, air power, not land power, would be decisive. Any Russian force capable of doing anything besides being a nuisance will have to go by land. It's about 1200 km by my quick estimation from the Russian/Ukranian Border to the Serbian/Romanian border. How the heck can you run a supply route that distance without total air superiority? And there happen to be a good number of U.S. Air Force squadrons (and Navy carrier air groups) around who must be getting very bored, who could be in position within a few hours. And that's just us... depending on how crazy things get, NATO itself may even get involved under Article 5. And did I mention just how crappy and unreliable most Russian-made weapons outside of AK's, RPG's and nukes are? And doesn't anyone remember the results the last few times massive quantities of Soviet made equipment faced down Western air bombardment? (Kosovo I? Persian Gulf I?)

The Serbs once owned Yugoslavia and they lost it all by being irredentist genocidal assholes. This ain't 1914. Russia is in no position to help, too many countries are in the way. Go cry, emo Serbs.

{sarcasm}

If Russia were to start hostilities with the West, who would they sell their oil to, NewportBarGuy, which is the source of their new-found prosperity?

MasterThief: The other consideration is air support. Since the mission would only involve blowing stuff up and not actually holding any territory, air power, not land power, would be decisive.

I'm going to totally disagree with you there. Russia can absorb air assaults and just keep pressing forward. Romania is a member, but they'd have to invoke article 5. I think they would be too afraid to do that as Russian convoys would already be rolling through. They'd really not like them to stop and take up positions there.

Their entire mission would be holding territory. Forming up south of the Serbian areas and creating a pseudo border area to "protect" the Serbian inhabitants.

I think you are being way too blasé about the chances of this happening. Their tank forces are legion. They can run a convoy that extends from Russia to Belgrade with very little planning. Ukraine is weak. (insert Seinfeld joke)

It all depends on how NATO and the EU play their cards. If the EU fully backs independence, we will see Russian tanks roll into Serbia and southward. I don't think people are giving Russia enough benefit of the doubt on carrying out their threats.

If they are able to get there in rapid fashion, we'll be unable to stop them and it has tremendous implications for the Russian government. They will once again be #2 in the world.

Don't count them out. They're crazy enough to do this. And they just might be right, from their standpoint. You possess no military power unless you are willing to use it.

Sgygus: If Russia were to start hostilities with the West, who would they sell their oil to, NewportBarGuy, which is the source of their new-found prosperity?

China and India. Half the world's population.

NewportBarGuy: They're crazy enough to do this.

Putin is crazy enough to turn the clock back sixty years? (I hope not.)

They're really looking more ridiculous than threatening with this. Everyone knows Russia wouldn't resort to military force, and couldn't do so effectively any way. The most they could do is provide support to Serbia (which would have to be airlifted in using their mediocre air cargo capabilities before any actual hostilities started). The most serious thing they could do is provide air defense weapons- which would be something to worry about but not a serious hindrance since they couldn't be airlifted in in significant quantities and with enough pre-war time to set up a truly integrated system. It'd be below even what the Serbians had in 1999, and it would have to be manned by Russians- which is unlikely.

Even the Serbians aren't willing to take this to full-scale war. They're just pushing to get the small slice of northern Kosovo that's still populated by a Serb majority. They have no desire for a repeat of 1999.

Blech. Preview is my friend. Preview is my friend. Preview is my friend.

Its already been said, but just to put it down...

"If there is ever another war in Europe, it will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans." - Otto von Bismarck

Now, given Serbian attacks and abuse of Kosovo, to say the least, if there is a war it will at least be a good reason for a war. There is no reason not to back Kosovo here.

Sgygus: NewportBarGuy: They're crazy enough to do this.

Putin is crazy enough to turn the clock back sixty years? (I hope not.)

Yes. He's been looking for a way to become a New Soviet Dictator. However, he lacks 1) money and 2) more money.

MasterThief: Hmmm... Kosovo/Serbia is two countries away, landlocked, and the Russians don't have anywhere enough air transport available to do anything big.



Kosovo: Near.
Russia: Far.

Near... Far... Near... Far...

That didn't stop them in 1914

NewportBarGuy: MasterThief: The other consideration is air support. Since the mission would only involve blowing stuff up and not actually holding any territory, air power, not land power, would be decisive.

I'm going to totally disagree with you there. Russia can absorb air assaults and just keep pressing forward. Romania is a member, but they'd have to invoke article 5. I think they would be too afraid to do that as Russian convoys would already be rolling through. They'd really not like them to stop and take up positions there.

Their entire mission would be holding territory. Forming up south of the Serbian areas and creating a pseudo border area to "protect" the Serbian inhabitants.

I think you are being way too blasé about the chances of this happening. Their tank forces are legion. They can run a convoy that extends from Russia to Belgrade with very little planning. Ukraine is weak. (insert Seinfeld joke)

It all depends on how NATO and the EU play their cards. If the EU fully backs independence, we will see Russian tanks roll into Serbia and southward. I don't think people are giving Russia enough benefit of the doubt on carrying out their threats.

If they are able to get there in rapid fashion, we'll be unable to stop them and it has tremendous implications for the Russian government. They will once again be #2 in the world.

Don't count them out. They're crazy enough to do this. And they just might be right, from their standpoint. You possess no military power unless you are willing to use it.

Well, we're at odds on the other thread, but I agree compeltely with you here. This sounds to me like exactly the opportunity Russia has been waiting for, a chance become relevant again.

Mastervader: That didn't stop them in 1914

Unless they're planning on invading Poland, I don't think that's an issue. Russia wasn't really any assistance to Serbia in 1914, either, for the same basic reasons of geography that he was pointing out.

Why is it that Russia has this weird historical obsession with protecting Serbia? It's not like the Serbs are the only other Slavs in Eastern Europe.

im going to go out on a limb......thats all

Fark pride. It only gets you into trouble. It got us into trouble when (and maybe my perceptions are wrong) Bush's pride brought us to Iraq, and it'll get Russia into trouble if they provoke a war in Europe.


We may have a lot of forces tied up in Iraq, but don't forget there's almost an entire continent full of modern countries with decently powerful military forces tied by a treaty. And France would love the chance to prove they can actually fight and win, especially when the Americans are unable.

Either that, or no one will do anything, and NATO will fall apart.

good thing we have troops tied down already in the area...

didn't something happen like 90 years ago in that area that started something big...

Can someone tell me why none of the major US news outlets are front-paging this?

FarkingSean: Well, we're at odds on the other thread, but I agree compeltely with you here. This sounds to me like exactly the opportunity Russia has been waiting for, a chance become relevant again.

I really think they have been waiting for this to transpire. It explains their recent aggression.

Forget other threads, each one is different. We can fight in one, talk in another.

The concern is, will these countries simply open up their highways for Russian convoys? I'm betting they will, but we have no idea until it actually happens.

NewportBarGuy: The concern is, will these countries simply open up their highways for Russian convoys? I'm betting they will, but we have no idea until it actually happens.

I think they would. This scares the crap out of me, because I do not see the US/EU backing down, nor Russia. I don't think buttons will be pushed over this, but I can absolutely see a conventional standoff; armored regiments rolling in from both sides. If that happens, say goodbye to the UN, it will split in two.

Which side of the fence does Turkey sit on in this equation?

Not to be paranoid, but what if China and Russia were working together, and actually tried to get this going as an excuse? So while Europe is tied down fighting Russia, China comes after us, and half of our forces are in Iraq?

I'm not saying this is what's going on, but that would suck. I think that that would actually result in nuclear war. Maybe the missile shield is what's making Putin so eager to pick a fight. He wants to make his moves before our shield is too good for MAD to work, and we basically control the globe.

FarkingSean:

Which side of the fence does Turkey sit on in this equation?


Turkey quickly recognized Kosovo's independence, which I find strange considering their situation with the Kurds.

FarkingSean: Which side of the fence does Turkey sit on in this equation?

Turkey has backed Kosovo, which strikes me as odd because of Turkey's Kurdish problem. This is a real mess. It's 50/50. Argentina won't back them because of the Falkland islands.

I will honestly say that I don't know what will happen, but I think Russia might actually do something this time.

picturescrazy: Not to be paranoid, but what if China and Russia were working together, and actually tried to get this going as an excuse? So while Europe is tied down fighting Russia, China comes after us, and half of our forces are in Iraq?

I'm not saying this is what's going on, but that would suck. I think that that would actually result in nuclear war. Maybe the missile shield is what's making Putin so eager to pick a fight. He wants to make his moves before our shield is too good for MAD to work, and we basically control the globe.

China knows we have one way and one way only to defeat a billion angry Chinese, a nuclear war. I think they would rather keep us afloat, buying their crap at WalMart. Russia...they'd prefer to fight. They have no economy to lose, and everything to gain by flexing their muscles.

But MAD works anyhow, I think, missle defense or no. If we were to make a glass parking lot out of Russia, we'd fark the planet's economy (and environment) up so badly it wouldn't matter if they shot back.

NewportBarGuy: FarkingSean: Which side of the fence does Turkey sit on in this equation?

Turkey has backed Kosovo, which strikes me as odd because of Turkey's Kurdish problem. This is a real mess. It's 50/50. Argentina won't back them because of the Falkland islands.

I will honestly say that I don't know what will happen, but I think Russia might actually do something this time.

Well, the good news is, if Turkey backs Kosovo, we can march our Iraq forces through Turkey, if need be, and set up a nice little short-range air defense from the southeast.

FarkingSean: Well, the good news is, if Turkey backs Kosovo, we can march our Iraq forces through Turkey, if need be, and set up a nice little short-range air defense from the southeast.

NATO has had air superiority over Russia (and by extension everyone else) since the early 1980s, to the point that neither American nor Western European militaries rely to any great degree on ground-based AA systems.

I'm still wondering how you people think the Russian military is going to cross the two countries that stand between it and Kosovo. There's no way Ukraine would allow it, angling as they are for NATO and EU membership themselves. Romania is already a NATO member.

It's a fascinating thought exercise, but the things we're talking about are much more likely to happen in a Tom Clancy novel than in reality. We're nowhere near WWIII.

Ukraine is already very pissy about the Russians sticking their nose in their government. I doubt they let Russian tank divisions roll through. Romania is a Nato member, they say no and Russia rolls through and the Russians have declared war on Nato. This is the same BS the Russians pulled for 50 years, sabre rattling to scare pussies. Last time they followed through on a military threat, they ended up in Afghanistan.

Churchill2004: FarkingSean: Well, the good news is, if Turkey backs Kosovo, we can march our Iraq forces through Turkey, if need be, and set up a nice little short-range air defense from the southeast.

NATO has had air superiority over Russia (and by extension everyone else) since the early 1980s, to the point that neither American nor Western European militaries rely to any great degree on ground-based AA systems.

I'm still wondering how you people think the Russian military is going to cross the two countries that stand between it and Kosovo. There's no way Ukraine would allow it, angling as they are for NATO and EU membership themselves. Romania is already a NATO member.

It's a fascinating thought exercise, but the things we're talking about are much more likely to happen in a Tom Clancy novel than in reality. We're nowhere near WWIII.



I really hope you're right. The problem with Romania and Ukraine being in the way, and someone else mentioned this as well, is that they may just let Russia through. Sure, it'd suck, but do they really want their own land to be the center of fighting between Russia and NATO? If we had the choice to either stand aside and let China take back Taiwan, or battle their forces in the midwest for some reason, what would we do?

Wikipedia says Albania, Croatia and Macedonia are expected to become members of NATO in April this year. That will leave Serbia, Bosnia and Kosovo as the only nations in the Balkans outside the alliance.

If only we had, like, a world police, which could stop and punish violent, recalcitrant nations like Russia, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and all the rest... Like... maybe a President of some kind... with guns, bombs, missiles and nukes, who is willing to use them all... Then bs like this would always be a joke.

Oh, but then we'd have some whiny Democrats going, "Who is the real terrorist now??" shiat. Right. Better let those other farking crazy countries blow up whatever they damn well feel like.

xkillyourfacex: If only we had, like, a world police, which could stop and punish violent, recalcitrant nations like Russia, North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria the United States, perhaps the #1 terrorist nation on earth.

This would never happen if our military and economy were not so depleted after 7 years of perpetual external war and internal coffer raiding.

Speak softly but carry a big stick. Ah, the good ole days.

MasterThief: The Serbs once owned Yugoslavia and they lost it all by being irredentist genocidal assholes. This ain't 1914. Russia is in no position to help, too many countries are in the way. Go cry, emo Serbs.

QFT.

Churchill2004: Mastervader: That didn't stop them in 1914

Unless they're planning on invading Poland, I don't think that's an issue. Russia wasn't really any assistance to Serbia in 1914, either, for the same basic reasons of geography that he was pointing out.

Why is it that Russia has this weird historical obsession with protecting Serbia? It's not like the Serbs are the only other Slavs in Eastern Europe.

Umm, maybe you should read up on history. The Russians have been protective of the Slavs.

I hear California wants to separate from the USA.... and become its own country...