Pennsylvania holds its election in April- that is a lifetime away and Hillary will probably be too far behind by then.

All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

I don't like any of the candidates. I dislike them such that this election will be the first election in which I will not vote since I registered to vote nearly 30 years ago.

Hillary would be an absolute disaster as president. She is owned by big business and believe it or not has the endorsement of the CEO of Fox News!

TheConvincingSavant: All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

The Core of the party would revolt if Obama's leading in pledged delegates by the convention and the supers swing it the other way.

Obama has a 12% lead in a national poll. Here.

Plus there's the head to head poll with McCain.

Very good source of Ohio poll data.

The most recent poll, taken yesterday, shows Hillary with a 14% lead over Obama. Which sounds bad, until you scroll a little further down the page and realize that as recently as the end of January she had a consistent 25-30% edge in Ohio polls.

And also, I don't believe Obama has made any appearances in Ohio yet, which traditionally seems be when he really starts picking up voters in a state.

Texas, for some reason, is a black hole of useful poll data. There is, however, this poll which shows a 48-38 Hillary edge. That's significant, because the same page claims that polls in Nov/Dec showed a 51-17 lead for Hillary, which is an amazing gain for Obama. And since that 48-38 poll is from the end of January, it doesn't take into account the Obamamentum of the last few weeks.

I just hope this doesn't turn into a Super Tuesday scenario, where if Obama just had one more week to campaign he probably could've picked up even more votes.

Primaries are so boring. I prefer a good old-fashioned fight-to-the-death. Or even some sort of pie bake off.

schief2: I just hope this doesn't turn into a Super Tuesday scenario, where if Obama just had one more week to campaign he probably could've picked up even more votes.

If he can get ties or near enough, his wins in the small states will still do it. There's something to be said for winning 2/3 of the states, no matter how big some of them are.

TheConvincingSavant: All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

You hope.

penthesilea: I prefer a good old-fashioned fight-to-the-death.


*cue Star Trek fight music*

Dinki: Pennsylvania holds its election in April- that is a lifetime away and Hillary will probably be too far behind by then.

Exactly what I was thinking. I think Pa. is going to go Obama. The vibe in the city is that there's tons of 1st time voters who can't wait to vote for him.

robsul82
TheConvincingSavant: All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

The Core of the party would revolt if Obama's leading in pledged delegates by the convention and the supers swing it the other way.

Yeah, but this is the Clintons you're dealing with here. Do you honestly think that they'll let a little thing like that stand in their way - particularly when they are *this* close to securing the nomination?

FTFA: After suffering a string of primary defeats to her Obama,

... wait, what?

Never trust poles.

TheConvincingSavant: If she gets Texas and Ohio by wide margins, and does well in Pennsylvania, and ensures that North Carolina isn't a blowout like South Carolina, then she can keep it within 100 Earned Delegates and hope for the best it's over.

Idiot, she needs to win everything from now onwards by 60-40, this is not Republican primary where winner takes all delegates.

_{/poll is meaningless, all polls have been wrong so far.
/they better make "for entertainment purposes only" legal requirement for all polls}

The actual vote will be much closer than these polls say.

/hotlinking goodness

She's behind by 137 pledged delegates right now. This will increase by a few more on Tuesday, in all likelihood. Even if she wins Texas and Ohio, she'll only pick up 50 delegates combined at most. It might do something to stem Obama's momentum, but it's not going to come anywhere near giving her the lead in pledged delegates. Her only hope is to come close enough to pretend it's a "tie" and then try to convince enough superdelegates to join her in destroying the Democratic party.

Can the "core" jokes stop. They are truly getting annoying. Most people don't care about TCS or this whole "core" story. It's almost as old as "Truth has a liberal bias."

Not Available: robsul82
TheConvincingSavant: All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

The Core of the party would revolt if Obama's leading in pledged delegates by the convention and the supers swing it the other way.

Yeah, but this is the Clintons you're dealing with here. Do you honestly think that they'll let a little thing like that stand in their way - particularly when they are *this* close to securing the nomination?

Don't underestimate people, just because they are the Clintons doesn't mean people will allow themselves to be walked on.
Hell she lost a huge endorsment

TheConvincingSavant: All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

Define "win." It's not winner-take-all, she has to have a notable lead for it to make any difference.

olls have been laughably off over this entire primary. Remember when Obama was going to win New Hampshire or when he supposedly had only a 5 point lead over Clinton in Virginia just a few days before the primary.

I invite you to visit this previous thread for a comprehensive breakdown of the rest of the Democratic primary season.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas can break 60/40 for Clinton, and Obama will still end up with a 100 pledged delegate lead.

Inevitability is still in play for the Democrats...and that inevitability is Obama.

There really aren't that many problems in the world, because most people have the same problems.

Paedophile_Deluxe: She's behind by 137 pledged delegates right now. This will increase by a few more on Tuesday, in all likelihood. Even if she wins Texas and Ohio, she'll only pick up 50 delegates combined at most. It might do something to stem Obama's momentum, but it's not going to come anywhere near giving her the lead in pledged delegates. Her only hope is to come close enough to pretend it's a "tie" and then try to convince enough superdelegates to join her in destroying the Democratic party.

She has a huge problem; she needs to win at least by 60 or 65 percent in order to catch up with Obama. I don't see that happening and why would the superdelgates vote her way when he is leading in delegates and popular vote?

I don't pay any attention to polls. I prefer poles.

To regain the lead in pledged delegates, the math adds up such that she would need to win by 20-30% in almost every state from this point forward. Possible, yes. Probable? Not bloody likely.

Polls suggested that Obama would not win those Super Tuesday states and he did, and they also suggested that Hilary was going to walk away with California swept. There was also polls saying that Obama was gonna be closer in California, but that might have been me hoping.

Polls suck balls.

Shaggy_C: To regain the lead in pledged delegates, the math adds up such that she would need to win by 20-30% in almost every state from this point forward. Possible, yes. Probable? Not bloody likely.

Last I heard is she'd need to win 56% of the delegates from every state. Not impossible.

Either way, complacency = failure.

Echoic: complacency = failure

Case in point:

I have to say that the polls have been pretty atrocious so far at predicting what the outcomes of the actual primaries/caucuses would be. But by all means, go ahead and give Hillary a false sense of security, it just works in Obama's favor.

/What Barack is cookin', I smell it.

I'd cry too if I realized I'd stayed married to Bill Clinton for all these years and still wouldn't get to be president!!

Paedophile_Deluxe: She's behind by 137 pledged delegates right now. This will increase by a few more on Tuesday, in all likelihood. Even if she wins Texas and Ohio, she'll only pick up 50 delegates combined at most. It might do something to stem Obama's momentum, but it's not going to come anywhere near giving her the lead in pledged delegates. Her only hope is to come close enough to pretend it's a "tie" and then try to convince enough superdelegates to join her in destroying the Democratic party.

This is the winner. Despite what the pundits might say, Clinton needs an Obama gaffe or a scandal or something seismic to pull this out. She needs to start winning states 60-40, and not just Texas and Ohio. Otherwise, she will be down 50+ pledged delegates when all is said and done, and there's just no way the superdelegates will flip a decisive result like that. It would be party suicide.

I figure the talking heads on CNN and the other networks will figure this out sometime soon after March 4th, when there is over a month of dead time between contests and they'll be itching to move onto a new story.

penthesilea [TotalFark] Quote 2008-02-14 10:42:48 PM
Primaries are so boring. I prefer a good old-fashioned fight-to-the-death. Or even some sort of pie bake off.


Get real!! Hillary in a bake off!!

Texas will matter, too.

As far as that goes, I predict that Obama will do very well in dense areas like Austin, Houston, and Dallas/Fort Worth - he will pretty much mop up the east/northeast/north.

Hildabeast will probably take the latino vote, which will include the southern areas (Corpus Christi, Brownsville, etc), as well as west Texas.

I think Texas will likely be close to a draw in delegates, with perhaps Hillary a slight bit ahead.

/Texan
//My precinct is full of rednecks, but it's also got a huge black community
///Will be tossing my vote at Obama since McCain is a douche and Paul is out

In general election match-ups, Obama leads John McCain 46% to 42% while McCain leads Clinton 48% to 41%

State polling released yesterday and today shows Obama leading McCain in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada. Clinton does not do as well against McCain in these states.

The supers aren't stupid. Many of them will be up for reelection in November. These are the numbers they will be looking at, not loyalty to one particular person. They'll be looking to see who can carry the swing states, and which name on the ballot will help them to win reelection.

TheConvincingSavant: All she needs to do is win Texas and Ohio. This would keep her close enough to keep the backing of the Supers.

If she gets Texas and Ohio, it's over.

These aren't winner-takes-all primaries.. Obama will probably whittle her edge down significantly before March 4, in which case she won't likely earn enough delegates to overtake him. It just depends on how much he can reduce her lead between now and then.

balloot: Otherwise, she will be down 50+ pledged delegates when all is said and done, and there's just no way the superdelegates will flip a decisive result like that. It would be party suicide.

You are aware that we are talking about the Democrats, right? Give them a chance and they will mess it up.

Black man in a White House? Jus' dudn't add up to me.

Uhn-hnuh.

If clinton doesn't pull enough supers to take the prize I've got a hunch she'll be playing her Michigan/Florida ace in the hole. I can see her using the courts to try and bypass the democratic process. It will be Florida 2000 II.

Who are the idiots still voting for Clinton? Do they not realize she will get road-graded in the general?

Seriously, I don't know a single person voting for Clinton, yet she has a huge lead in Ohio. Who are these people?

bubbaprog:
Seriously, I don't know a single person voting for Clinton, yet she has a huge lead in Ohio. Who are these people?


Republicans. Though this republican will be voting for Oboma in the primaries.

Ladbrokes washes out Hillary

(New Window)

How in the world can Wayne Root have better odds than RON PAUL??!?!?

/Who the fark is Wayne Root?

It's like every idiot on the planet that's NOT posting on Digg is posting over here instead. There wasn't a single word of the headline that was factually correct, and yet it still got Greenlit. Absolutely amazing.

bubbaprog: Who are the idiots still voting for Clinton? Do they not realize she will get road-graded in the general?

Seriously, I don't know a single person voting for Clinton, yet she has a huge lead in Ohio. Who are these people?

My mother is one of these people. It comes from paying as little attention to politics as possible and ignoring any new information so they can feel smug and superior and go on about how nobody will ever let a woman get the presidency anyway and basically be damned passive aggressives about it like they are about everything else becuase they've got such low self esteem they needs to feel they're always unjustly victimized and.. I mean umm.. they're all senile. That's it.

What? Don't look at me that way.

/So uhh.. how 'bout those sports teams?

SomeoneDumb: /Who the fark is Wayne Root?

He's the real libertarian running for president :P

Paedophile_Deluxe:

Wow, Peaceboy AND this festering shiatpile are post back. It's like Old Home week for vile, cretinous retards.

Ya know, if McCain was ten years younger, I would offer to cover bets for people looking to take Ron Paul at 150-1 odds.

I mean, crap, Edwards should be going off at 125-1 at that rate.

bubbaprog: Who are the idiots still voting for Clinton? Do they not realize she will get road-graded in the general?

Seriously, I don't know a single person voting for Clinton, yet she has a huge lead in Ohio. Who are these people?

personally, here in PA, I've seen two groups consistantly supporting Hillary: Hard-core feminists (basically the cast of the vaginal monologues happening here tomorrow), and Asians. For whatever reason, the Asian vote is still stongly in Hillary's camp. Fortuntately, CA is the only state where that demographic matters.