If Osama's Only 6 Degrees Away, Why Can't We Find Him?

I dunno...that one might be right, seeing as half the men in the middle east are his #2 guy.

submitter: You can quit sending Christmas cards to Kevin Bacon now

Yeah, but can you please tell him to stop sending them to me?

why is separate such a hard word to spell?

Isotope: If Osama's Only 6 Degrees Away, Why Can't We Find Him?

he's dead, jim.

Occam'sLadySchick: he's dead, jim.

LOL. Yeah, most likely.

(that italicized stuff was FTA, BTW)

submitter: You can quit sending Christmas cards to Kevin Bacon now

Maybe you should drive:Yeah, but can you please tell him to stop sending them to me?



Stop pushing the button

You mean someone did not figure out the problem with "six degrees of separation" years ago. I certainly did. It is pretty damn obvious.

Basically the idea is that each of us, on average knows x people.
Then the number of people that the people we know know is x².
And so on. Keep going until you comfortably exceed the population of the U.S., North America, the Earth, or whatever you want.

This sort of reasoning has a major fallacy.

The people who know me know people that I know. That overlap, sometimes minor, often major, takes out quite a bit of the number of connections.

It gets worse. People of a certain economic class are more likely to know each other then other people. People of certain religions are more likely to know each other. People in the same industry are more likely to know each other. People are more likely to know someone nearby. And so on.

Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other. For the calculation of "six degrees of separation" to be true, there would really have to be a chance.

Fb- still has one degree of separation from Kevin Bacon - and you.

TheMysteriousStranger:

Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other. For the calculation of "six degrees of separation" to be true, there would really have to be a chance.

Osama is an easy one though. He use to party hard at clubs across Europe. He had a brazillian siblings and other relatives in the USA. A number of Americans and US residents went to Pakistan and the Middle East to study Osama's brand of Islamicism and train with Al Queda. Probably a lot more connections between Osama and a Christian fundamentalist than me and the guys that mow the lawn.

TheMysteriousStranger: It gets worse. People of a certain economic class are more likely to know each other then other people. People of certain religions are more likely to know each other. People in the same industry are more likely to know each other. People are more likely to know someone nearby. And so on.

All you need to do is know one person who knows a lot of other people, or know someone who knows someone who knows a lot of people. For example I'm separated from a former prime minister by one person, that former prime minister knows hundreds of politicians, world leaders, diplomats, generals, CEOs, who each in turn know hundreds or thousands of other important people who know thousands or other important and non-important people.

A poor person needs to only know one well-connected person to be quickly connected with the rest of the world.

This farker is 180° from Hillary.

MMmmmmm...... bacon....

I agree that the overlap probably kills the theory. Really poor methodology here though. Gave the envelopes to people, told them to give them to people that they THOUGHT might get the envelope closer. Well, that seems pretty damn scientifical right there... You can surely check all of one's connections that way.

Who's runnin' this study, Dr. Larry The Cable Guy?

TheMysteriousStranger: You mean someone did not figure out the problem with "six degrees of separation" years ago. I certainly did. It is pretty damn obvious.

Basically the idea is that each of us, on average knows x people.
Then the number of people that the people we know know is x2.
And so on. Keep going until you comfortably exceed the population of the U.S., North America, the Earth, or whatever you want.

This sort of reasoning has a major fallacy.

The people who know me know people that I know. That overlap, sometimes minor, often major, takes out quite a bit of the number of connections.

It gets worse. People of a certain economic class are more likely to know each other then other people. People of certain religions are more likely to know each other. People in the same industry are more likely to know each other. People are more likely to know someone nearby. And so on.

Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other. For the calculation of "six degrees of separation" to be true, there would really have to be a chance.

You're so informed on the subject that you completely missed where the study suggests that it is an average of six degrees of separation.

Behold the Oracle of Bacon! Link (new window)
Sample output for Errol Flynn:

Errol Flynn (I) has a Bacon number of 2.

Errol Flynn (I) was in Extraordinary Seaman, The (1969) with Charles de Gaulle
Charles de Gaulle was in JFK (1991) with Kevin Bacon

Good luck getting any work done today.

I would have never six degrees would have separated me from a guy who starred in a movie called "Footloose". I hope to heaven I don't find out the same is true for me and Pauly Shore.

hogans: Fb- still has one degree of separation from Kevin Bacon - and you.

So you mean he's my... NOOOOOOOO!

I was trying to explain this whole "6 degrees..." thing last night to my GF.

/Now I can tell her to forget it.

Subby : FAIL

FTA : "In 1998 Watts and Steven Strogatz, a professor of applied mathematics at Cornell University, published a paper in Nature that did what de Sola Pool and Kochen hadn't done: It provided a mathematical explanation for how random people living far apart can be linked by a handful of connections."

The article start of that Milgram's study was flawed and unprovable, and then talk about some Watts dude that was able to mathematically explain how it could be possible (not that I've read the linked explanation)

He even tried to repeat it with an email chain. Because we all know that people forward email chains from scientists. That hope that that email had a full screen, seizure causing flashing warning that this wasn't just another stupid "you are gonna die if you don't forward this" email.

The good news for all of you is that you know me.

And, a good friend of mine went to high school with that one guy who used to party with that one girl who was friends that guy who crashed a party at Chuck Norris' house (thereby receiving a thunderous barrage of kicks to his ankle).

So, as is obvious... You are all just n¹ degrees away from MARLEE MATLIN.

TheMysteriousStranger: You mean someone did not figure out the problem with "six degrees of separation" years ago. I certainly did. It is pretty damn obvious.

Basically the idea is that each of us, on average knows x people.
Then the number of people that the people we know know is x2.
And so on. Keep going until you comfortably exceed the population of the U.S., North America, the Earth, or whatever you want.

This sort of reasoning has a major fallacy.

The people who know me know people that I know. That overlap, sometimes minor, often major, takes out quite a bit of the number of connections.

It gets worse. People of a certain economic class are more likely to know each other then other people. People of certain religions are more likely to know each other. People in the same industry are more likely to know each other. People are more likely to know someone nearby. And so on.

Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other. For the calculation of "six degrees of separation" to be true, there would really have to be a chance.

Wouldn't you only have to go as far as 1/2 of the world's population, since the person you are trying to link to knows x people, and they know x², so if we each know 500,000 of a million...

The thing is, that even if we assume that people know each other, the numbers are still huge. Lets assume most people know somewhere near Dunbar's number of people. Lets assume there is a large amount of feedback, and everybody knows only 1/3 of that many new people. Then we have 50 new people per person, so through 6 degrees, you are connected to 50^6 people. That is 15625000000 people, aproximatly 2.5 times the earths population.

I realize that the math above is crooked in many ways, but it does indicate that six degrees on average is not incredably unlikely.

TheMysteriousStranger: Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other.

That there is no chance that an American fundamentalist and Osama know each other could not be less relevant to the question. You might as well have said that unless an Australian turkey can yodel in the eastern Yugoslavian Appalachians, this theory is true. Would make as much sense.

skinink: I would have never six degrees would have separated me from a guy who starred in a movie called "Footloose". I hope to heaven I don't find out the same is true for me and Pauly Shore.

I almost physically ran into Pauly Shore in an airport about a zillion years ago. Same with Emo Phillips.

Or is communication required?

I had never thought of this as literal, more as a illustration of doubling, like that one with a chess board.

Seriously though...

We could do a little test here of our own.

Through me, you all are

:1 degree away from:
-Dr. Jonas Salk (very nice old guy)
-Coach John Robinson (asshole)
-Deepak Chopra (asshole)
-Steppenwolf (late 80's version)
-Sophia Coppola (hot)
-Ridley Pearson (author, totally cool guy)
-Jerry Garcia (great guy)
-Faith No More (weird dudes)
-Soundgarden (weird, but less weird than the above)


:2 degrees away from:
-Phil Mickelson
-Bob Weir
-Ron and Doug Cey
-Ahmad Rashad
-Timothy Leary
-U2

/I bet if we extended this out, even just 2 degrees per person, we would be amazed at the connections.

TheMysteriousStranger: Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other.

That's an easy one.

grass roots fundie -> pastor/priest/minister -> regional Christian religious guy -> regional Muslim religious guy -> CAIR official -> and off we go in the Muslim world.

The key link in this one is the regional guys. That would be a certain tie-in between the Christian and Muslim worlds.

A more interesting study might be how many people we are connected to through sexual encounters.

TheMysteriousStranger: Frankly, I rather doubt that there is any chance that say an American fundamentalist Christian and Osama have any chance of know each other. For the calculation of "six degrees of separation" to be true, there would really have to be a chance.

That's easy. Any American probably knows someone (1) who knows a congressman/woman or senator (these people are highly connected through campaigning) (2). All senators and congressmen know George Bush (3) who knows many members of the Saudi royal family (4) who are highly connected with the bin Ladens (5). The bin Ladens obviously know Osama (6).

There you go, I did it for almost any American, and through the president, so how do you like them apples?

Actually, it begs the question, if Bush is only seperated from bin Laden by 3 degrees of freedom, why can't he find him?

There you go, I did it

magores: Seriously though...

We could do a little test here of our own.

Through me, you all are

:1 degree away from:
-Dr. Jonas Salk (very nice old guy)...

You are all of those people?

Seriously, I think you mean two degrees of seperation from those people, one to connect to you, and two to connect to the people you know.

Mr Logo: ...
Actually, it begs the question, if Bush is only seperated from bin Laden by 3 degrees of freedom, why can't he find him?

There you go, I did it



Must resist urge to correct "begs the question."

/resisting

20/20: A more interesting study might be how many people we are connected to through sexual encounters.

If the geneticists are right, all of them.

FloydA: 20/20: A more interesting study might be how many people we are connected to through sexual encounters.

If the geneticists are right, all of them.

Yeah, geneticists are notorious poon hounds though.

20/20: A more interesting study might be how many people we are connected to through sexual encounters.



/Worst twins ever.

damn facebook

My highschool computer science teacher was named Mr. Bacon, but he looked sort of like Freddie Mercury.

I have my own theory about why the experiments wont work. It is easy to stand on the outside with more knowledge and say 'x knows y, who knows z, who knows a....etc', but x does not know that y knows z who knows a.

Otherwise...I may only be six degrees away from Obama, but I do not know the correct person to start with who could then get the correct information to the next person in the link.

I am not sure if I am making this clear or not. It is just that afterwards and looking on in God mode it is easy to see all the connections. While in the midst of the experiment the people dont know the whole chain. If I knew ahead of time that Bob could send the message to Sally who could send the message to Jim who could send the message to Jill, I would just send it to Jill. Since I cant know all the connections everything could fall apart if I first choose to send the message to Harry who does not know any of those people.

I'm within four degrees of Kevin Bacon so suck it subby!

sharpie_69: Mr Logo: ...
Actually, it begs the question, if Bush is only seperated from bin Laden by 3 degrees of freedom, why can't he find him?

There you go, I did it



Must resist urge to correct "begs the question."

/resisting

Must resist urge to call you a pedant grammar Nazi who refuses to acknowledge the evolution of language.

/resisting...
//crap.
/// Grammar Nazi :P

magores: Seriously though...

We could do a little test here of our own.

snip

/I bet if we extended this out, even just 2 degrees per person, we would be amazed at the connections.

My grandma was a UAW rep who knew the area UAW rep in Grand Rapids, who knew the right senators, who knew Gerald Ford, who got my dad sent home from Germany after my sister died.

A guy I worked tech support with in college (near Detroit) went to high school with Kid Rock--aka "the creepy dirty guy that no one talked to."

A girl in my kakaying class babysat for Bob Seger. (again, was living near Detroit, she lived in A2)

A guy I dated was friends with a guy whose cousin was married to Bob Seger's bassist.

My Dad was a stock car crew chief in the late 80s-90s for an ARCA team, so I met a ton of young drivers, some of whom are now running Nascar.

For a short time my brother helped take care of Vladimir Konstantinov after therapy sessions.

I show dogs and know a lot of people from that, people from many walks of life.

Well I'm one or two degrees from Ann Coulter, depending on how strict we're going to be with what we call a "connection," so that pretty much puts me within four degrees of every politician in Washington and within five of every politician in the country. It's easy to have one huge branch point and go from there.

Also, subby: Scientists discover famous "six degrees of separation" theory between people is wrong.

TFA: However, he also reported that the average number of connections (not the maximum number, as people sometimes mistakenly believe) between strangers was six-still astonishingly few.

FTA
There's also the issue of belief. Some people just don't believe we can be linked by so few people, so they don't try to connect. But the perception of connectivity is crucial in completing the chains.

So you will be a happier and more successful person if you disbelieve this new study, and continue to believe in 6 degrees.

Hrm... believe Milgram and my best interests... or Elizabeth DeVita-Raebu... tough call.

sharpie_69: Mr Logo: ...
Actually, it begs the question, if Bush is only seperated from bin Laden by 3 degrees of freedom, why can't he find him?

There you go, I did it



Must resist urge to correct "begs the question."

/resisting

burrgrinder: sharpie_69: Mr Logo: ...
Actually, it begs the question, if Bush is only seperated from bin Laden by 3 degrees of freedom, why can't he find him?

There you go, I did it



Must resist urge to correct "begs the question."

/resisting

Must resist urge to call you a pedant grammar Nazi who refuses to acknowledge the evolution of language.

/resisting...
//crap.
/// Grammar Nazi :P

Evolution of language? They still call it "begging the question" in logic classes.

The biggest flaw is that it's very inefficient. Why choose only one person to contact? Contact EVERYONE you know, and overlap will take care of itself.
Of course, if I wanted to get a message to Kevin Bacon, I'd go through his agent. duh!

Tommy Moo: Well I'm one or two degrees from Ann Coulter, depending on how strict we're going to be with what we call a "connection," so that pretty much puts me within four degrees of every politician in Washington and within five of every politician in the country. It's easy to have one huge branch point and go from there.

Also, subby: Scientists discover famous "six degrees of separation" theory between people is wrong.

TFA: However, he also reported that the average number of connections (not the maximum number, as people sometimes mistakenly believe) between strangers was six-still astonishingly few.

But the study had such an abysmal completion rate that you can not say this worked... What like 9% the first time and 29% the second time? The average number of connections on the completed letters was 6, what about those that never made it? Were they just abandoned by lazy people, or was there really no way for them to go on? Lost in a fire? (I admit thats a high rate of fire) Etc...The article doesn't tell you what happened to the letters that didn't make it and draws the conclusion that because of the low % of success that the study was a fail.
/Article Fails
//Study Probably Fails
///Theory Fails
////I Fail

All of you are only a coupla jumps from Hollywood:

A certain B-list (or C...I don't know about these things) actor, who I will not name, grew up in the next town over from where I grew up.

Some of my old school friends know some of his old school friends.

Poof...all of Hollywood, incl the Baconator, in a coupla jumps. Add Broadway as well.

/prob 90% of you farkers have seen him onscreen

GingerGirl: I have my own theory about why the experiments wont work. It is easy to stand on the outside with more knowledge and say 'x knows y, who knows z, who knows a....etc', but x does not know that y knows z who knows a.

Otherwise...I may only be six degrees away from Obama, but I do not know the correct person to start with who could then get the correct information to the next person in the link.

I am not sure if I am making this clear or not. It is just that afterwards and looking on in God mode it is easy to see all the connections. While in the midst of the experiment the people dont know the whole chain. If I knew ahead of time that Bob could send the message to Sally who could send the message to Jim who could send the message to Jill, I would just send it to Jill. Since I cant know all the connections everything could fall apart if I first choose to send the message to Harry who does not know any of those people.
____

Good point! That's an important problem with Milgram's model. In fact, it explains why he had such a low success rate even given the prior biases he built into the model.

About half of the Omaha group were blue-chip stock investors and the Boston "target" was a broker. In addition, about half of all of the senders also lived in Boston, not in Nebraska. The remainder were the randomly selected people from the mailing list Milgram bought. The "average" six degrees is an average of successes over those three populations. In fact, only the sample that was useful for demonstrating a "universal" application of the model was the randomly selected Nebraskans, and their success rate was far lower than either of the other two sub-populations.

That's not to say that the model is "worthless;" it just doesn't actually show what the popular myth suggests it shows.

Duncan Watts' (2002) book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age is a pretty good "pop-sci" introduction to the use and misuse of network analyses, and it's actually quite well written, if you like that sort of thing (which I do because I'm a complete nerd).

I came here for the farkers pointing out all the fail filled goodness...and I was disappointed...
I suppose I'll stay for the "I know somebody famous!" posts.
/meh

I'm 5 degrees from OBL, though I doubt all the people on the chain would push through a message.


Me - XX - GHW Bush - Osama's Father - some relative - OBL.