I guess it's time to invest in shantytowns.

Dude, Canada has real cities too...

Hi, I'm from the Henny Penny corporation, and we'd like to sell you this hard-hat. You see, the sky is falling, and recession is imminent. Pay no attention to the fact that the economy is still growing and unemployment is at 5%.

Whatever happens will be the fault of the next President of course.

Time to light the fire to this thread:


FDR put us on a path to borrow and spend that reversed the path taken by Andrew Mellon. We now currently have such a huge debt because of FDR's reckless spending.


/not necessarily my person opinion

/not necessarily my person opinion

that should say "personal" opinion

the_be_sharps: Pay no attention to the fact that the economy is still growing and unemployment is at 5%.

Looks like we need another world war to get us out of this one... Iran, I'm lookin' at you

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

/That is all.

Recessions aren't so bad, as long as you don't have well-meaning democrat socialists to turn them into depressions.

I'm praying for something more like the flu epidemic of 1918.

If you want more interesting parallels between 1929 and today read H.S. Dent's The Next Great Bubble Boom or The Roaring 2000s.

Everybody panic!

Those who do not learn from the past are destined..........to...........ummm,something.

the_be_sharps: the economy is still growing

Sure looks like it if you're just reading the raw numbers. But all the 'growth' in the world means nothing if your currency is falling at a faster rate.

CodeGod
Recessions aren't so bad, as long as you don't have well-meaning democrat socialists to turn them into depressions. bail you out of them.

FTFT

And FTFT obviously means Fixed That For Thou.

Kat: I'm praying for something more like the flu epidemic of 1918.

the herd needs thinning

mofomisfit: And FTFT obviously means Fixed That For Thou Thee.

Sorry, pet peeve.

They say it's $22 Billion "adjusted" to modern dollars.... But the stimulus package is based on two things that HAVE grown HUGELY since 1929:
1. Number of businesses
2. Population

Adjust that number based on the average handout per capita (business or individual) given in 1929 and then give me the modern dollar value. Because honestly, I think you'll find the numbers change a little when you do PROPER STATISTICAL ANALYSIS YOU MORONS AT MARKET WATCH. Jesus, just because you own a calculator and have some conversion tables doesn't mean you are master and commander of economic figures.

God I am hungover. And somewhat grouchy.

But seriously, this is just trying to generate scary news. And if you think about the statistics and their methodology for more than 10 seconds and have a cursory knowledge of what "good" figures are, you'll realize they're idiots.

the_be_sharps
Pay no attention to the fact that the economy is still growing and unemployment is at 5%.

The economy is still "growing" because people are still spending money they don't have on shiat they don't need... it's called "credit". Let them have to spend real money (live within their means) and watch the shiat hit the fan. If it weren't for the plastic, the recession would have hit long ago.

Unemployment is at 5% because the same people who could get by on one good job have had that good job shipped overseas and now need to work two or sometimes three jobs just to keep up.

5% would actually mean shiat if it actually related to those who could get by on ONE job... or better yet, to those FAMILIES who could get by on ONE job.

Call me when that happens.

what we need is less regulations on lending so everyone can buy a home whether they can afford it or not!!! Let's hook them up with balloon payments,no money down,50 yr mortgages and adjustable interest rates. then let's start a war in the middle east and drive the price of oil through the roof. And don't worry about the cost we're putting it on our bank of China credit card so the effect won't be felt until after we're out of office.

George "the ownership society" Bush.

Suicidal Writer: the_be_sharps: Pay no attention to the fact that the economy is still growing and unemployment is at 5%.

Rebuttal for the win.

/I LOL'd. Good job.

Shaggy_C: mofomisfit: And FTFT obviously means Fixed That For Thou Thee.

Sorry, pet peeve.

Cracked me up.

rewind2846: .

Unemployment is at 5% because the same people who could get by on one good job have had that good job shipped overseas and now need to work two or sometimes three jobs just to keep up.

Do you actually know anyone that works 2 or 3 jobs? I hear this but I've yet to know anyone (outside of college perhaps) that does this.

Veggies: They say it's $22 Billion "adjusted" to modern dollars.... But the stimulus package is based on two things that HAVE grown HUGELY since 1929:
1. Number of businesses
2. Population

So why your assertion that they're trying to generate 'scary' news. That $22B would be a lot larger today based on your metrics, making it similar in size to the package proposed by the government this week. That means that it has a definite parallel and is actually something to be concerned about...

The Great Depression was caused by oppressive government regulations which robbed people of spending money that could have been used to strengthen the economy and not by banks who could not pay back deposits and stock market insider trading.

Anyone care to post the number of "birth/death jobs" that are a fudge factor introduced to estimate the creation/end of small businesses? Have those "new jobs" not made up over 50% of reported employment growth recently?


Just because they are reporting 5% unemployment today, doesn't mean it is accurate. Furthermore they have not counted the illegal immigrants and Mexicans who filled a lot of jobs in housing construction along with a lot of consumption too (if they do in fact number in the millions)

They're a big reason why 'productivity' is up. I put those annoying quotes around productivity because their measured numbers are incorrect when they underestimate the working population

dahuka: Kat: I'm praying for something more like the flu epidemic of 1918.

the herd needs thinning

the problem is, that if I was to agree with you, the government will call me a tur'rist...

rewind2846: Unemployment is at 5% because the same people who could get by on one good job have had that good job shipped overseas and now need to work two or sometimes three jobs just to keep up.

Are you implying that people having 2 jobs lowers the level on unemployment?

clancifer: Do you actually know anyone that works 2 or 3 jobs? I hear this but I've yet to know anyone (outside of college perhaps) that does this.

yeah. did you know that in 1929 most women folk didn't work?
they stayed home and raised kids. now they have to work to make ends meet and kids grow up with a computer,tv or video game for a sitter. or they are out on the street getting into mischief.
this is a big part of why the kids today have so many problems.
It's up to them to teach themselves how to interact socially and their teachers to educate them all by themselves.

Recessions aren't so bad, as long as you don't have well-meaning democrat socialists to turn them into depressions. bail you out of them. turn a two-year problem into a 15 year one.

There, FTFS
(Fixed that, For Sooth)

Hobodeluxe: what we need is less regulations on lending so everyone can buy a home whether they can afford it or not!!! Let's hook them up with balloon payments,no money down,50 yr mortgages and adjustable interest rates. then let's start a war in the middle east and drive the price of oil through the roof. And don't worry about the cost we're putting it on our bank of China credit card so the effect won't be felt until after we're out of office.

George "the ownership society" Bush. MOAR CHARTS.

mofomisfit: CodeGod
Recessions aren't so bad, as long as you don't have well-meaning democrat socialists to turn them into depressions. bail you out of them. government to make a problem it caused even worse.

FTFAY - it doesn't matter whether the left welfare/warfare-state party or the right welfare/warfare-state party is in power - they're equally damaging.

/fixed that for all y'all

clancifer: Do you actually know anyone that works 2 or 3 jobs? I hear this but I've yet to know anyone (outside of college perhaps) that does this.

I know lots of people that work 2-4 jobs, personally.

*The number of average Joe's using margin accounts was rampant in the '20's. Everyone was on margin and thought the S&P would go up forever.

*International Trade had a huge decline. US farm exports dropped through the floor because of the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. That led to all of the farm closings and small town banks going under.

-we no longer have 80% of people in agriculture.
-you seen the price of grain? farmers are not defaulting any time soon

* The Fed contracted the money supply by 1/3. No new loans were issued and no liquidity.

* New Dealers ran some large corporations into the ground. Unions demanded large concessions which they got. When there was an economic slowdown, the business could not adjust and the unions gave no concessions. BOOM!! Businesses dead.

*Save Cycle. People were encouraged to save. This led to further slow down and death spiral.

Incidentally, Ben Bernanke is a leading expert on the great depression.

chiasticslide: clancifer: Do you actually know anyone that works 2 or 3 jobs? I hear this but I've yet to know anyone (outside of college perhaps) that does this.

I know lots of people that work 2-4 jobs, personally.

Most people I know work 9-5 jobs.

oh and once I saw a blimp: MOAR CHARTS.

mofomisfits

CodeGod
Recessions aren't so bad, as long as you don't have well-meaning democrat socialists to turn them into depressions. bail you out of them.

FTFT

There is no such thing as a true bailout of a recession.

Look at the NASDAQ for instance. It's been going up consistantly since late 2002. At some point or another that has to have a natural correction. Which is ok.

But nooo, people would rather be spoonfed this political talking point bullshiat about "stimulus packages" and "bailing out the economy".

Everybody wants it to be the late 90s in the stock market all the time every single day.

This isn't little league sports. Investment speculation and finance is a game that has to have losers in order to flow properly. But no one wants to hear that. They want the next presidential candidate to promise them the magic cotton candy and goo-goo berry market where everyone who puts their money into it can afford tons of new shiny things every day and it rains butterscotch biscuts on holidays.

You spent $800K on a single bedroom house in San Diego trying to flip it, and now you've lost 30-50% of your equity? Sorry. No bailout for you. Granted, lending pratices are shiat, but actions need to have consequenses. You want to speculate? That means there is a chance you will lose.

One of the few things I really like about RP is his idea for the abolition of the Fed. Granted that might be a tad extreme but it at least needs a major major overhaul.

End Rant

Shaggy_C: Most people I know work 9-5 jobs.


What a way to make a livin'.

CodeGod: Recessions aren't so bad, as long as you don't have well-meaning democrat socialists to turn them into depressions.

Well, you know, that's Hoover. Wait a minute...

nuclear_asshat

-you seen the price of grain? farmers are not defaulting any time soon

You're right. They won't.

But if the dollar keeps going to shiat and people continue chasing this biofuel with corn nonsense, food will be more expensive than gasoline.

i hate jim cramer. but he is SO VERY RIGHT about the monolines.

if you take 30B, save the 120B, bail out the monolines and the stop the madness.

friday (1-18): NEWS: feds to inject 150B = down 200
wednesday (1-21): NEWS: banks to meet on monolines with insuanrce regulators = dow up 600 points intraday

read em and weep.

oh and once I saw a blimp: MOAR CHARTS.

What scares me is the number of so called "economists" on mainstream news channels that keep saying that the economy is strong despite every bank losing $10B a month, gold and oil continuing to rise, the housing market in a permanent downward spiral, the US dollar crumbling from underneath everything, and the government at unimaginable levels of debt and worsening.

The 2010's are going to make the 1930's look like a cakewalk (regardless of who is in power next year).

Hobodeluxe: what we need is less regulations on lending so everyone can buy a home whether they can afford it or not!!! Let's hook them up with balloon payments,no money down,50 yr mortgages and adjustable interest rates. then let's start a war in the middle east and drive the price of oil through the roof. And don't worry about the cost we're putting it on our bank of China credit card so the effect won't be felt until after we're out of office.

George "the ownership society" Bush.

Are you shiatting me? You don't remember all of the Democratic senators biatching that we should be giving ALL Americans a chance at home ownership?

You forgetting about the call to issue investment vehicles to help the poor and less established get access to capital? (do it in your best Jesse Jackson voice, it'll ring a bell)

But at the end of the day, it isn't either parties fault.

No one made these dumbshiats sign on the dotted line. They can cry a river all they want, but if you cannot read or understand a deal that is worth many times your annual salary it's your farking fault.

Unemployment is at 5% because the same people who could get by on one good job have had that good job shipped overseas and now need to work two or sometimes three jobs just to keep up.

Wow. Two or three jobs?

How can there be enough jobs to employ all but 5% of the workforce if 1) a significant number of people have 2 or 3 jobs, and 2) so many jobs have been shipped overseas?

And if these alleged people only had a need for one job, how would these companies stay in business since they would have no one to fill their jobs? Think we have an illegal immigration problem now! YASNY

/I don't think the 2-3 job people exist.
//In meaningful numbers, anyway

clancifer: rewind2846: .

Unemployment is at 5% because the same people who could get by on one good job have had that good job shipped overseas and now need to work two or sometimes three jobs just to keep up.

Do you actually know anyone that works 2 or 3 jobs? I hear this but I've yet to know anyone (outside of college perhaps) that does this.


Yes, I do.

The 2010's are going to make the 1930's look like a cakewalk (regardless of who is in power next year)

Hey-- I'll make you a bet.

If you are right, I will change my economic/political views to be exactly the opposite of what they are now, because I will have been proven wrong.

If you are wrong, you will change your economic/political views to be exactly the opposite of what they are now, because you will have been proven wrong.

It's an easy bet, though-- because what we would be required to do is what we should do anyway.

/Bet if wrong, you won't though

clancifer
rewind2846: .
Unemployment is at 5% because the same people who could get by on one good job have had that good job shipped overseas and now need to work two or sometimes three jobs just to keep up.

Do you actually know anyone that works 2 or 3 jobs? I hear this but I've yet to know anyone (outside of college perhaps) that does this.

Yes, yes I do... and some of them I went to college with.
If you live out in Moose's Ass, Wyomimg it's less likely... but to be able to afford a house or condo in coastal states... two jobs or a couple with at least one (good) job each.

My father was able to support three boys and a wife with ONE job when I was growing up. We owned our house and had two cars, one bought new, the other used. Was the norm back then. Much rarer today.

I hate when people pull out unemployment stats, my local paper does this constantly to achieve some sort of self gratification. Statements like "unemployment in the county are 4% the lowest in the state". Too bad they only take the statistics from people claiming unemployment, they don't mention the people who's benefits have expired that continue to be unemployed.
So Federally the unemployment rate is 5%, what is the actual rate?