Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

Insurance_EE_guy: Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

And all five electoral votes? That's harsh.

Meh.

He could be the next Chris Rock.

Ace Frehley's Ghost: Insurance_EE_guy: Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

And all five electoral votes? That's harsh.

Meh.

Is it all or nothing in Nevada?

Ya see, the Senate wears there ties like this, and the House wears their ties like this! It's crazy-town!

Insurance_EE_guy: Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

The latest polls show Clinton with a 9% lead over Obama with 13% undecided, with a 4% margin of error. A buffer similar to that allowed Clinton to pull out a surprise victory in New Hampshire.

Also of note is the fact that Edwards does not reach the viability threshold of 15% in any of the polls. Nevada does not have the second vote mechanism of Iowa. But because caucuses are public votes, many of those Edwards supporters in caucus sites where the 15% is not going to be reached are going to be pressed hard to switch to Obama or Hillary. This combined with the polls margin of error and undecided voters leaves a pool of almost 30% of the caucus goers who are likely to change their vote at the last minute to either Clinton or Obama.

Humor is an excellent way to both get your point across while defusing the accusations. Don't respond to lies - laugh them off.

Insurance_EE_guy: Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

Am I looking at the wrong polling numbers? Last I saw it was much closer than 10pts. Where are you getting those numbers?

..not saying you are wrong...just curious as to the most recent polls.

"Folks in Congress, they'll tell you they're looking out for you - they're looking out for somebody else."

Isn't he in congress?

Code_Archeologist: The latest polls show Clinton with a 9% lead over Obama with 13% undecided, with a 4% margin of error. A buffer similar to that allowed Clinton to pull out a surprise victory in New Hampshire.

Also of note is the fact that Edwards does not reach the viability threshold of 15% in any of the polls. Nevada does not have the second vote mechanism of Iowa. But because caucuses are public votes, many of those Edwards supporters in caucus sites where the 15% is not going to be reached are going to be pressed hard to switch to Obama or Hillary. This combined with the polls margin of error and undecided voters leaves a pool of almost 30% of the caucus goers who are likely to change their vote at the last minute to either Clinton or Obama.

You're supposed to say "Amen" after a prayer.

Wow, its nice to actually have a politician who speaks of honesty instead of speaking in double talk and painting themselves as a Saint.

If you openly admit to smoking pot, trust me, you have no intentions of making yourself look like a saint.

Diogenes: Humor is an excellent way to both get your point across while defusing the accusations. Don't respond to lies - laugh them off.

To be fair, humor is also an excellent way of dodging the question and avoiding having to be sincere. I'm not saying Obama is doing this for mainly that reason, but I have no doubt that any politician that injects humor into their campaigning is very aware of that.

DarnoKonrad: Ace Frehley's Ghost: Insurance_EE_guy: Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

And all five electoral votes? That's harsh.

Meh.

Is it all or nothing in Nevada?

Ya know... I have no idea. Still doesn't seem like there's enough there to be terribly concerned about.

/votes March 11th, a month after most of the country as already voted
/including Texas, Florida, and California
/may stay home as a result

Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

January 11-13 Reno Gazette:

Obama 32
Clinton 30
Unsure 9

January 9-14 American Research Group:

Clinton 35
Obama 32
Undecided 8

Looks neck and neck to me.

Code_Archeologist: Insurance_EE_guy: Obama will lose Nevada by 10+ points, unfortunately.

Unless polling is wrong again

The latest polls show Clinton with a 9% lead over Obama with 13% undecided, with a 4% margin of error. A buffer similar to that allowed Clinton to pull out a surprise victory in New Hampshire.

Also of note is the fact that Edwards does not reach the viability threshold of 15% in any of the polls. Nevada does not have the second vote mechanism of Iowa. But because caucuses are public votes, many of those Edwards supporters in caucus sites where the 15% is not going to be reached are going to be pressed hard to switch to Obama or Hillary. This combined with the polls margin of error and undecided voters leaves a pool of almost 30% of the caucus goers who are likely to change their vote at the last minute to either Clinton or Obama.

Actually the poll I read this morning show Clinton Only ahead By 5%

But to focus on TFA for a second; THIS is why I support Obama:

"She says, 'I voted for it but I was glad to see that it didn't pass.' What does that mean?" he asked, again drawing laughter from the crowd and himself. "No seriously, what does that mean? If you didn't want to see it passed, then you can vote against it! People don't say what they mean.

...Those kinds of tricks, that kind of approach to politics is what has to stop because what happens is then nobody believes anything," Obama said. "The voters don't believe what politicians say. They get cynical. Folks in Congress, they'll tell you they're looking out for you - they're looking out for somebody else. We have to change that politics and that's why I'm running for president."


is a big part of Why I'm voting for him. A big part of why I so despise Hillary is precisely things like "I voted for it, but I was glad it didn't pass".

I've been running for President, and boy are my legs tired!

Airlines still have food?

Kome: Diogenes: Humor is an excellent way to both get your point across while defusing the accusations. Don't respond to lies - laugh them off.

To be fair, humor is also an excellent way of dodging the question and avoiding having to be sincere. I'm not saying Obama is doing this for mainly that reason, but I have no doubt that any politician that injects humor into their campaigning is very aware of that.

In this particular case though, he is making a valid point and highlighting something that is one his major positives. The three candidates were asked a softball question. He answered honestly (he's disorganized in his paperwork) and the other two candidates answered in a way that was dishonest and self-serving. I think he's addressing it well and making a good point of how ridiculous the question and responses were.

Manfred J. Hattan: I've been running for President, and boy are my legs tired!

Hahaha. Made me think of:

"White people run for president like this, and black people run for president like this."

Kome: To be fair, humor is also an excellent way of dodging the question and avoiding having to be sincere. I'm not saying Obama is doing this for mainly that reason, but I have no doubt that any politician that injects humor into their campaigning is very aware of that.

Oh, that's very true of course. I also don't think Obama was doing that here. But look at the difference between him and say Bush or Hillary? Their dismissive laugh thing drives me utterly to distraction.

Bush and Hillary are definitely two sides of the same coin.

MugzyBrown: You're supposed to say "Amen" after a prayer.

No faith required... it is just obvious that the polls coming out of Nevada are horribly flawed as a predictor of actual results.

shooboxx77: Where are you getting those numbers?

It was an MSNBC/some college poll I saw this morning.

Magorn: A big part of why I so despise Hillary is precisely things like "I voted for it, but I was glad it didn't pass".

Typical politician indeed. What's weird is I'm conservative and Obama will probably raise my taxes, and I'd still vote for him. WEIRD I tells ya.

shooboxx77: Kome: Diogenes: Humor is an excellent way to both get your point across while defusing the accusations. Don't respond to lies - laugh them off.

To be fair, humor is also an excellent way of dodging the question and avoiding having to be sincere. I'm not saying Obama is doing this for mainly that reason, but I have no doubt that any politician that injects humor into their campaigning is very aware of that.

In this particular case though, he is making a valid point and highlighting something that is one his major positives. The three candidates were asked a softball question. He answered honestly (he's disorganized in his paperwork) and the other two candidates answered in a way that was dishonest and self-serving. I think he's addressing it well and making a good point of how ridiculous the question and responses were.

I know, when I heard Clinton's and Edward's answers I replayed this (pops) Penny Arcade strip in my head. I was just pointing out that politicians use humor for lots of reasons - not just to point out the absurdity of the campaigning of their rivals or to "humble" themselves to their constituents (a practice GWB did expertly, I might).

Magorn: is a big part of Why I'm voting for him. A big part of why I so despise Hillary is precisely things like "I voted for it, but I was glad it didn't pass".

Yeah, Hillary is the worst choice of them all. I have spoken with people who are Hillary supporters, and most of them are voting for her out of nostalgia for Bill Clinton. It's farking sad.

Code_Archeologist: Yeah, Hillary is the worst choice of them all. I have spoken with people who are Hillary supporters, and most of them are voting for her out of nostalgia for Bill Clinton. It's farking sad.

Isn't though?? We held a faux straw poll in my office last week, and Obama/Hilary took 90% of my co-woker's vote. When discussing the results, I overheard comments like this:

-I really like Bill, so it'd be nice to have them both back in office.
-I don't think it matters who [Hilary or Obama] gets in, I just think its exciting because we will be part of history. We'll get the first woman or the first African-American President!
-Who is Koo-Sin-Itch? What?

/works at a bank.
//voting Kucinich.

Insurance_EE_guy: Typical politician indeed. What's weird is I'm conservative and Obama will probably raise my taxes, and I'd still vote for him. WEIRD I tells ya.

Not that weird. Whoever is the next President will have to raise your taxes (or drastically cut spending, or both). The GOP just outright lies about it (remember "read my lips..."?) while the Democrats seem to be the ones grounded in reality. (This election cycle, anyway. In the past there have been times when the Dems had no connection to reality, so I guess it goes back and forth)

robbjohn: -I really like Bill, so it'd be nice to have them both back in office.
-I don't think it matters who [Hilary or Obama] gets in, I just think its exciting because we will be part of history. We'll get the first woman or the first African-American President!
-Who is Koo-Sin-Itch? What?

You have singlehandedly demonstrated the biggest problem with American politics.

Manfred J. Hattan: I've been running for President, and boy are my legs tired!

This reminds me of a quote I heard on NPR:

Thompson's followers love his platform but don't like how he is campaigning. They say he should be running for office, not walking.

To be fair, humor is also an excellent way of dodging the question and avoiding having to be sincere. I'm not saying Obama is doing this for mainly that reason, but I have no doubt that any politician that injects humor into their campaigning is very aware of that.


That is the problem with Huckabee. He uses humor to dodge any pointed question about his beliefs or policy and ends up never sincerly stating anything about what he would do or what he believes.

sarcastrophe: robbjohn: -I really like Bill, so it'd be nice to have them both back in office.
-I don't think it matters who [Hilary or Obama] gets in, I just think its exciting because we will be part of history. We'll get the first woman or the first African-American President!
-Who is Koo-Sin-Itch? What?

You have singlehandedly demonstrated the biggest problem with American politics.

Agreed. Apathy will be the downfall of this country. I think that's why I have been very drawn to what Obama is saying. Its not just specifics about his ideas on policy but his idea on doing everything he can to get people interested and passionate about this country again. To rally around an idea and make things happen. The system is farked because most people just simply don't care or don't want to take the time to do anything about it. There has to be a fundamental change in how the citizens of this country view their govt and for that to happen there has to be a fundamental change in govt.

Bill Frist: To be fair, humor is also an excellent way of dodging the question and avoiding having to be sincere. I'm not saying Obama is doing this for mainly that reason, but I have no doubt that any politician that injects humor into their campaigning is very aware of that.


That is the problem with Huckabee. He uses humor to dodge any pointed question about his beliefs or policy and ends up never sincerly stating anything about what he would do or what he believes.

Except for that whole "we should amend the constitution to put god in it" thing recently.

/Huckabee is truly the single worst candidate for president out of the whole bunch running.

FTFA: Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards said his biggest weakness is that he has a powerful response to seeing pain in others

That powerful response is called "greed", Senator!

Get it? Ambulance chaser?

Anyone?

Code_Archeologist: allowed Clinton to pull out a surprise victory tie in New Hampshire.

Sorry. Non-rotsky pet peeve.

icy_one: FTFA: Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards said his biggest weakness is that he has a powerful response to seeing pain in others

That powerful response is called "greed", Senator!

Get it? Ambulance chaser?

Anyone?

Still laughing!

farking awesome.

FTFA: "Because I'm an ordinary person, I thought that they meant, `What's your biggest weakness?"' Obama said to laughter from a packed house at Rancho High School. "If I had gone last I would have known what the game was. And then I could have said, `Well, ya know, I like to help old ladies across the street. Sometimes they don't want to be helped. It's terrible."'

Obama is the first pol in a very long time to talk honestly with the press and the American people. The first to not talk down to the electorate like they were a bunch of retarded *ssclowns.

It's a risky strategy but an interesting one. Risky because so many American citizens are effectively short bus riders who've been dumbed down into that state by a MSM who exists fer that very purpose.

The right doesn't have a single credible candidate this time out and the only electable candidate on the left is Obama.

He's putting the candid back into candidate and if folks can't see it they are willfully, woefully not payin' attention.

/Anybody know wot the Diebold situation is in Nevada or do we only get to talk about that after the votes are in?

The polls are going to be wrong in Nevada because nobody has a clue what the turn out is going to be and it is likely to going to be low. Some argue low turn out would help Obama , some say it will help Hillary. I get the gut feeling hillary will win here and Obama will win South Carolina. Which puts them right back at where they are now with no clear front runner. I think the Dem nomination will be decided on Super Duper tuesday by California and all of it's delegates. Obama is probably going to do good that day in the South and Midwest. Hillary will probably do well New York and the Northeast. The western states could split. But I think California with all of its delegates will give somebody a clear victory that day and enough momentum to win the nomination.

quatchi:

/Anybody know wot the Diebold situation is in Nevada or do we only get to talk about that after the votes are in?


no worries about the ever-reliable Diebolds in NV. NV is a caucus not a primary. Just have to make sure the count of the show of hands is correct.

/threadjack - anyone know what the reasoning was for the Nevada Dem Party to go with a caucus rather than a primary? I heard this is the first year they have done a caucus.

EwoksSuck But I think California with all of its delegates will give somebody a clear victory that day and enough momentum to win the nomination.


Very shrewd of you. Hence Obama mentioning Reagan the other day.

EwoksSuck: I think the Dem nomination will be decided on Super Duper tuesday by California and all of it's delegates.

The thing about Democratic Delegates is they are not winner-take-all. The winner will have a slight advantage of delegates but winning in one state and losing in another can even things out.

Superdelegates are shaping up to be very important in this race.

I think Hill still has a pretty sizable lead in CA. The liberal strongholds, SF & LA, are pretty staunchly in Hillary's corner. It is going to be an uphill fight for Obama, BUT... I don't think its by any means impossible.

Also, I beleive the CA delegates are not all or nothing. Can anyone confirm that?

shooboxx77: I think Hill still has a pretty sizable lead in CA. The liberal strongholds, SF & LA, are pretty staunchly in Hillary's corner. It is going to be an uphill fight for Obama, BUT... I don't think its by any means impossible.

Also, I beleive the CA delegates are not all or nothing. Can anyone confirm that?

Republican primaries are all-or-nothing. Democrat primaries assign delegates that are representative.

stinieroo: EwoksSuck: I think the Dem nomination will be decided on Super Duper tuesday by California and all of it's delegates.

The thing about Democratic Delegates is they are not winner-take-all. The winner will have a slight advantage of delegates but winning in one state and losing in another can even things out.

Superdelegates are shaping up to be very important in this race.

this answers my question in the previous post. thanks!

Regarding the polls...

Most pollsters aren't even attempting to poll Nevada because no one has a freaking clue how you'd go about doing that. They've never had a meaningful caucus before, and no one is sure how many people will show up or who those people will be.

That said, the anti-casino worker lawsuit is really bad PR for Hillary. It could kill her entire campaign, not just the Nevada part. I'm guessing Obama wins this one by 10 to 15 points.

stinieroo: EwoksSuck: I think the Dem nomination will be decided on Super Duper tuesday by California and all of it's delegates.

The thing about Democratic Delegates is they are not winner-take-all. The winner will have a slight advantage of delegates but winning in one state and losing in another can even things out.

Superdelegates are shaping up to be very important in this race.

Yes but The thing is though that most of the states up for grabs on Super Duper tuesday, with a few notable exceptions like Califnornia, New York, etc, only have a few delegates. So for example if Hillary won most of the Northeast States, New york and California, Obama would have to win just about all of the remaning states that day to even come close to her delegate count that day. California has 55 delegates. Who ever wins that state is going to win that day and I tink that winner will have enough momentum to get the nomination. The Super delagates will go with the nominee via popular vote unless it is extremely close in terms of delegates, then they could chose to hand somebody the nomination.

Excerpts from Obama's speech:

"If that Edwards guy were any smoother his clothes would fall off."

"I heard Hillary is trying to connect to her feminine side. She's even started shaving twice a day."

"I'm often asked what my name means. It's a good question, but it's none of your goddamnbusiness."

"I have to laugh when I see Bill asking voters to be loyal to Hillary. Why should anyone else give her what he hasn't given her for 30 years? I mean, seriously, people. Am I right?"

"My campaign is about hope and it's about America's future, so I don't want to dwell on the past, but let's not forget that Hillary's husband got a blowjob from a chubby slut in the Oval Office."

HumbleGenius: Excerpts from Obama's speech:

"If that Edwards guy were any smoother his clothes would fall off."

"I heard Hillary is trying to connect to her feminine side. She's even started shaving twice a day."

"I'm often asked what my name means. It's a good question, but it's none of your goddamnbusiness."

"I have to laugh when I see Bill asking voters to be loyal to Hillary. Why should anyone else give her what he hasn't given her for 30 years? I mean, seriously, people. Am I right?"

"My campaign is about hope and it's about America's future, so I don't want to dwell on the past, but let's not forget that Hillary's husband got a blowjob from a chubby slut in the Oval Office."

I lol'd.

HumbleGenius: Excerpts from Obama's speech:

I'm switching my vote to Don Rickles.

EwoksSuck: California has 55 delegates. Who ever wins that state is going to win that day and I tink that winner will have enough momentum to get the nomination.

Unless the delegates get split 50/50 (like what happened in New Hampshire).

What happens to Edwards delegates?

Does he get to throw them towards Obama or Clinton if he wants?

Rev. Skarekroe: HumbleGenius: Excerpts from Obama's speech:

I'm switching my vote to Don Rickles.

You hockey puck!